Alan Shank wrote:Wheating looked like he was in serious trouble in semi I
I was watching him very carefully the whole race. The way I saw it (and I could be wrong), it looked to me like he wanted to get to the outside to start his kick a LOT earlier than he ended up getting to, as a result of getting boxed in.
IIRC, Wheating put himself in good position with a lap to go, but then he allowed several runners to pass him, i.e. he didn't protect his position. The same thing happened with Borzakovskiy and Lagat (15) in Berlin. Cheers, Alan Shank Woodland, CA, USA
tm71 wrote:351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.
thought Wheating look good until I saw the time?!?!? 3:51 as a semi come on
Sorry, to say it but it appears to be an UnAmerican Olympic final?!?!?
You can't make such judgments by a time in a semi. When you come through 800 in 2:13 or 2:14 because no one wants to be the pacesetter, what do you expect?
Yes, i can. Look at the last years 1st round at WC's Heat 1 1:54 - 2:53 - 3:41.08 last Q Heat 2 2:04 - 3:01 - 3:41.9 last Q Heat 3 2:00 - 2:59 - 3:40.98 last Q
So, just to get out of the first round you can expect to run sub 2:00 for half and still need a sub 56 last 400 after a 58- 3rd 400. (unless your in the fast heat then expect going 1:55 and then you only need a sub 58 last 400)
What i saw yesterday leaves me too believe no USA man will be able to kick that fast when they are forced to run an honest pace. Cento & Manzano have the potential and experience too be able to do it, but neither looked that good. So, what they run in the final they better be ready to run in the 1st round?!?!? As Olympics are notoriously faster on Q rounds, then WC's.
Dutra5 wrote:Whether the US gets anyone in the Olympic final has little to do with the semi run yesterday.
Andrews, Centro, Manzano and Wheating are all capable of qualifying for the Olympic finalin a typical international semi.
When at their best! This year not so much. In the trials final the faster it goes the more it helps Manzano. Wheating will have to hope for a stretched out peloton so he won't use his poor placement tactics, Robby will have to stop doing a Vessy, and Centrowitz will have to pray for a slow pace. I really think Andrews can win if he's near the front with 300 to go.
Dave wrote:So, what are the guys thinking that didn't qualify in the slow heat? "3:51and I didn't bother to run any better than this??"
The time simply is not that important. The only relevant question is: how different would the result have been in any other actually likely scenario? And my guess would be: not terribly. If you're not strong enough to get a Q outright, then you just can't depend on a q.
kuha wrote:If you're not strong enough to get a Q outright, then you just can't depend on a q.
Zackly. You need to do two things to be successful: a. position yourself for the sprint b. sprint Non-qualifiers failed at one or both of those and so Darwinian theory says you must become extinct.
Dutra5 wrote:Whether the US gets anyone in the Olympic final has little to do with the semi run yesterday.
Andrews, Centro, Manzano and Wheating are all capable of qualifying for the Olympic finalin a typical international semi.
When at their best! This year not so much. In the trials final the faster it goes the more it helps Manzano. Wheating will have to hope for a stretched out peloton so he won't use his poor placement tactics, Robby will have to stop doing a Vessy, and Centrowitz will have to pray for a slow pace. I really think Andrews can win if he's near the front with 300 to go.
None of which has anything at all to do with the slow semi...my only point.
Dutra5 wrote:Whether the US gets anyone in the Olympic final has little to do with the semi run yesterday.
Andrews, Centro, Manzano and Wheating are all capable of qualifying for the Olympic finalin a typical international semi.
When at their best! This year not so much. In the trials final the faster it goes the more it helps Manzano. Wheating will have to hope for a stretched out peloton so he won't use his poor placement tactics, Robby will have to stop doing a Vessy, and Centrowitz will have to pray for a slow pace. I really think Andrews can win if he's near the front with 300 to go.
None of which has anything at all to do with the slow semi...my only point.
Are you saying in a similarly slow semi these guys could get in the final? If you are I disagree. None of them seem to be the runners of old and there are plenty of Kenyans and Arabs and other folk who are.
Dutra5 wrote:Whether the US gets anyone in the Olympic final has little to do with the semi run yesterday.
Andrews, Centro, Manzano and Wheating are all capable of qualifying for the Olympic finalin a typical international semi.
When at their best! This year not so much. In the trials final the faster it goes the more it helps Manzano. Wheating will have to hope for a stretched out peloton so he won't use his poor placement tactics, Robby will have to stop doing a Vessy, and Centrowitz will have to pray for a slow pace. I really think Andrews can win if he's near the front with 300 to go.
None of which has anything at all to do with the slow semi...my only point.
Are you saying in a similarly slow semi these guys could get in the final? If you are I disagree. None of them seem to be the runners of old and there are plenty of Kenyans and Arabs and other folk who are.
Either the guys mentioned are good enough or they aren't. The slow semi has nothing to do with whether they can get to the final in London. It doesn't show anything.
Dutra5 wrote: Either the guys mentioned are good enough or they aren't. The slow semi has nothing to do with whether they can get to the final in London. It doesn't show anything.
Agreed! But I still don't agree with your contention that these guys are all capable of getting in the final based on this year's form. Which is what I said in the beginning.
gh wrote:rumor has it that Wheating's plantar fasciitis is so bad that he's round-to-round.
If that is the case then I would rather he not make the team because what kind of shape will he show up in London in if he makes it. Look what happened to Huddle last year in the WC.
gh wrote:rumor has it that Wheating's plantar fasciitis is so bad that he's round-to-round.
If that is the case then I would rather he not make the team because what kind of shape will he show up in London in if he makes it. Look what happened to Huddle last year in the WC.
I have to agree with that. PF is not something you get over quickly.
gh wrote:rumor has it that Wheating's plantar fasciitis is so bad that he's round-to-round.
If that is the case then I would rather he not make the team because what kind of shape will he show up in London in if he makes it. Look what happened to Huddle last year in the WC.
I have to agree with that. PF is not something you get over quickly.
Does that mean Hall should give up his spot to Ritz, and Ritz should give his spot to Derrick, who is also struggling with PF... and who finished 5th in 10000m?
TN1965 wrote:Does that mean Hall should give up his spot to Ritz, and Ritz should give his spot to Derrick, who is also struggling with PF... and who finished 5th in 10000m?
They don't have to if they have earned it, of course, but as a fan I would rather have the athletes who give the country a best chance in the competition. If you have a serious case of PF, or any other injury, what are your chances of even making the final in the Olympics?
gh wrote:rumor has it that Wheating's plantar fasciitis is so bad that he's round-to-round.
If that is the case then I would rather he not make the team because what kind of shape will he show up in London in if he makes it. Look what happened to Huddle last year in the WC.
I have to agree with that. PF is not something you get over quickly.
Does that mean Hall should give up his spot to Ritz, and Ritz should give his spot to Derrick, who is also struggling with PF... and who finished 5th in 10000m?
Struggling and barely being able to run are two different things.
Alan Shank wrote:IIRC, Wheating put himself in good position with a lap to go, but then he allowed several runners to pass him, i.e. he didn't protect his position. The same thing happened with Borzakovskiy and Lagat (15) in Berlin. Cheers, Alan Shank Woodland, CA, USA
I wonder how slow the final will be. 3:41 seems to be the magic number. Any slower and runners start to trip over each other. Any faster and a real miler might win.
it is wide open - i have 5 guys with a chance. you can go so wrong betting this one.
torrence because he's got A-standards in the 8 15 and 5k. andrews because he's healthy, can kick and has the 334 15 and 144 8. wheating because he's done 330 143 and he's in oregon. manzano because he's 332 with a kick centro because he's bronze WC 15 and finished in 51x
guys coming off injuries are not great bets, unless you know for sure they are healthy and have busted off the rust.
the OG spots will probably go to who's sharpest and healthiest and that is torrence3, andrews2 and manzano1.
crazy, but i pick wheating and centro to miss out. in oregon. the rounds might take a fraction out of them in what figures to be a slow first half and cardiac city the last 500-700m. for a 3:38 to 3:39.
what a crap shoot this one is. and what a way to cap off the one of the greatest track meets on earth.
edit - there may be a deal between non A standard guys. for a faster pace.. same prediction here.
Last edited by gibson on Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
Watch Euro champ live today. You can watch the repay now. http://eurovision.digotel.com/ea/index.html 1500m went 400 at 62.5, 800n at 2:09.5 and down goes Fin runner at 1000m mark. Next down goes two runners at 1300m and a Nord wins it in 3:46.
IMO US men will play chicken as well and Matt gets in 1 or 2.
The pace will likely be slow yet those in front likely won't change....as is usual.
I think Torrence and Manzano are the two guys who place themselves well in any race. My guess is they will make sure they have a straight run for home and both qualify. Wheating has always been all over the place tactically in my opinion while Andrews tends to leave things pretty late although with a really slow pace I'm not sure how much room there is to leave it late unless he comes to a complete stop. Centrowitz showed good tactical sense last year.
Manzano, Torrence and I'll go with Andrews in a lean over Centro.
Dutra5 wrote: Either the guys mentioned are good enough or they aren't. The slow semi has nothing to do with whether they can get to the final in London. It doesn't show anything.
Agreed! But I still don't agree with your contention that these guys are all capable of getting in the final based on this year's form. Which is what I said in the beginning.
For me, two of the biggest surprises were German Fernandez and Alan Webb, both of whom had astonishing performances in high school, then ran poorly in their events at the OT. Although I've been a big fan of Webb's, and had interpreted his Spring performances as evidence of training hard and hoping to peak for the OT and OG, his terrible performance at Eugene makes me think that he's finished. He's just wasted another Olympic Year, and I can't imagine that he'll get another shot at the title.
Nice race! Props to Manzano. Centrowitz looked very smooth, and as if he had much more in the tank. Wheating knows he has the final speed. Nice team! Props to those who took out the pace!
Faster than normal race thanks in large part to the guys who finished 7th, 11th, and 12th. I completely get why they did it, but it's worth noting for the future attacks by the professional American distance critics.
I imagine it's hard for Jason Vigilante to try to switch Andrews's racing style in the middle of an Olympic year, but it possibly just cost him a trip to London. Sure he was in ok position at the top of the homestretch, but there was a lot of work that went into getting around folks to be there.
Good Leo is always going to make these teams, when he shows up. Centrowitz looks like he could be a beast in a month, given where he was a few weeks ago. Here's hoping Wheating can finally get a prolonged block of injury free training in.
CookyMonzta wrote:Big mistake for Robby to pass up the 800. I knew Leo had it in him to once again to win, let alone make the team.
Ridiculous for him to move up to a new distance in an Olympic year! And there was no reason for it. Robby was more than capable of making the team in the 800m. What a waste.
Jacksf wrote:Robby was more than capable of making the team in the 800m.
I agree, it seemed like it was decision based off his OXY run but thats just one race. He had a great NY run in the 800, I don't see why he didn't roll off that.
half recently, and Derrick had to scratch from 5000m. How much worse Wheating is compared with those two?