¶2012OT m1500—Leonel Manzano 3:35.75

[mcgato]

T&FN Formchart

1. Andrew Wheating ¶ (Oregon TC) 4
2. Robby Andrews ¶ (adidas) nr
3. Matthew Centrowitz ¶ (Nike) 1
4. Leonel Manzano ¶ (Nike) 3
5. David Torrence ¶ (Nike) 5
6. Russell Brown ¶ (Oregon TC) 9
7. Will Leer * (Nike) 7
8. Jordan McNamara * (Oregon TC) nr
9. Jeff See ¶ (Saucony) nr
10. Garrett Heath * (Saucony) nr

[pickle47]

...and all ten think that they have the best kick over the last 400.

[Master Po]

...and all ten think that they have the best kick over the last 400.

yes, and each of the 10 actually does have the best kick!

[booond]

Surprised at Wheating's #1, he hasn't run well. Torrence looks like he's coming in ready for a spot.

[ATK]

Surprised at Wheating's #1, he hasn't run well. Torrence looks like he's coming in ready for a spot.

I agree Torrance has probably been the most consistent and strongest competitor this season.

[26mi235]

Surprised at Wheating's #1, he hasn't run well. Torrence looks like he's coming in ready for a spot.

He has had one pretty good race. He does not need to be good until now. As for counting on their kick, they have seen the kick from Wheating and Centro so they should know how to calibrate their 52s -- not good enough against 51s.

[Marlow]

...and all ten think that they have the best kick over the last 400.

Which is why they'll be running 5K pace for the first three laps!
Yes, that last 300 will be very exciting, just like those grade school races on Spring Field Day were.

[wineturtle]

If you are a non-A in the final do you have any choice but to get to 3 to go at or below 2:54.
If Merber gets to the final- and I think he will- I'd bet a Jefferson bill that he'll be 2:54. I doubt he'll be alone.

[Cyril]

Due to experience and race smarts, I think I'd have to go with Manzano.

[wineturtle]

Advancemet set up?
Found thanks

[lovetorun]

The head line of this thread couldn't be more true...this is really a wide open event...no real clear favorite..which makes it all the more tantalizing as a competition! The prelims will be interesting to see what tactics prevail and who makes it into the final...then the final w/ anyone of 6-7 able to win and get into the other two spots for the team.

I'm going to go with Manzano, Torrence and Wheating or Centrowitz.

[KevinM]

If those without the "A" are running for anything more than placing in the national championship meet (which impacts bonuses), the pace will not be dawdling. I imagine McNamara and Leer are the primary folks to look at here, but anyone in the final outside of

Wheating
Manzano
Brown
Torrence
Andrews
See
Centrowitz

...would be potential pace-pushers (I think that's everyone).

[Alan Shank]

Coming into an event 800 up without a standard really puts one in an awkward position, because they have to try to server two masters -- the place and the time. Ritzenhein was very fortunate to have Rupp in a position to help out.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[Dave]

If those without the "A" are running for anything more than placing in the national championship meet (which impacts bonuses), the pace will not be dawdling. I imagine McNamara and Leer are the primary folks to look at here, but anyone in the final outside of

Wheating
Manzano
Brown
Torrence
Andrews
See
Centrowitz

...would be potential pace-pushers (I think that's everyone).

If a runner doesn't have an A, does it make sense to try to go it for in the prelims and then race more conservatively in the final or do you do as little as you can to make the final and go for the A in the final? The former strategy allows for concentration in the final and also a second chance if you don't get the A. The latter strategy conserves energy for when it most matters.

[Alan Shank]

On the men's side, the heats eliminated six runners. I'm a bit surprised that the times were as fast as they were.

As I recall, one of the reasons they went to the extended Trials was to select people who could handle the multiple rounds they would face in the Olympics.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[GHM]

What a waste of effort these heats were today. Why does USTAF try to make athletes tired. Only two heats are needed with top five plus two go to final. This format would give more chances someone gets A or B qualifiers. Same thing with ladies 1500m. I guess they wanted to sell tickets all eights days.

[Randy Treadway]

...and all ten think that they have the best kick over the last 400.

Ain't that the sad truth. Coaches can never get it through their thick skulls... "I don't care if you have 47 relay speed, you have to assume that you're NOT the fastest kicker out there!!!!"

Plus, the wide open finish kick races are VERY HIGH risk for trips and spills. Yet they run their race that way in every Olympic Trials. Over and over and over and over.
Nobody with enough guts to say "I'm going to run a 3:33 or better. If you want to beat me, you're gonna have to bring it on."
If you don't have that kind of self confidence, you're *never* going to medal at the Olympics.

[KevinM]

If you don't have that kind of self confidence, you're *never* going to medal at the Olympics.

Yeah, just ask Matt Centrowitz.

[Dutra5]

...and all ten think that they have the best kick over the last 400.

Ain't that the sad truth. Coaches can never get it through their thick skulls... "I don't care if you have 47 relay speed, you have to assume that you're NOT the fastest kicker out there!!!!"

Plus, the wide open finish kick races are VERY HIGH risk for trips and spills. Yet they run their race that way in every Olympic Trials. Over and over and over and over.
Nobody with enough guts to say "I'm going to run a 3:33 or better. If you want to beat me, you're gonna have to bring it on."
If you don't have that kind of self confidence, you're *never* going to medal at the Olympics.

The vast majority or Olympic races have been run like that with the winners 6-8 secs off of their PRs.

[aaronk]

3:51.27 in the first race!!

I thought the raceWALK is tomorrow!!!

[tm71]

351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.

[Jnathletics]

351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.

thought Wheating look good until I saw the time?!?!? 3:51 as a semi come on

Sorry, to say it but it appears to be an UnAmerican Olympic final?!?!?

[odelltrclan]

351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.

thought Wheating look good until I saw the time?!?!? 3:51 as a semi come on

Sorry, to say it but it appears to be an UnAmerican Olympic final?!?!?

You can't make such judgments by a time in a semi. When you come through 800 in 2:13 or 2:14 because no one wants to be the pacesetter, what do you expect?

[huntinwr]

351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.

thought Wheating look good until I saw the time?!?!? 3:51 as a semi come on

Sorry, to say it but it appears to be an UnAmerican Olympic final?!?!?

2nd semifinal much better 3:41 Shockingly, Russell Brown, yearly US leader, was 24th out of 24 with 3:58?

Final could be eight guys sprinting the final 100, lanes 1-8

[Dave]

Wait, the 3:51 wasn't a mile?

Not often world class runners get to jog and qualify for the USOT Finals.

[Marlow]

Y'know who's been looking really good? Leer! I'll pick him to make the team, but Wheating, Centrowitz, Torrence and Manzano all looked good too. Who'll be odd men out?

[Ned Ryerson]

Y'know who's been looking really good? Leer! I'll pick him to make the team, but Wheating, Centrowitz, Torrence and Manzano all looked good too. Who'll be odd men out?

I don't see Leer finishing top three and under 3:35.50 on Sunday.

[Ned Ryerson]

351 semi. Quite embarrassing. I can ubderstand 341 but not 351.

thought Wheating look good until I saw the time?!?!? 3:51 as a semi come on

Sorry, to say it but it appears to be an UnAmerican Olympic final?!?!?

Feel free to set the pace.

[Alan Shank]

I'm very concerned that Randy Treadway's head may have exploded when he saw 65.9, 2:14 for the first two laps of semi I! >:-) Craig Masback said that Leer was going to talk to some of the other guys about trying to get the A in the semi; obviously, he didn't convince anyone.

In semi II, again, German Fernandez took the lead but did absolutely nothing with it. Why?

Wheating looked like he was in serious trouble in semi I; Brown WAS in serious trouble. 51.99 for Leer, who now is left with the double assignment for the final.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[TN1965]

Based on the semi, I think the Olympic team will come from the following five.

Centro, Torrence, Wheating, Manzano and Andrews.

I think the first three will make the team.

[huntinwr]

Based on the semi, I think the Olympic team will come from the following five.

Centro, Torrence, Wheating, Manzano and Andrews.

I think the first three will make the team.

Sounds about right. Those five, plus I believe Jeff See, have the "A". The likelihood of anyone else getting it is very small.

[lovetorun]

Andrews may surprise...I have a feeling he's going to make the team. The only one in a tactical race (and it will be) that can out sprint him is probably Manzano.

[bobguild76]

Andrews may surprise...I have a feeling he's going to make the team. The only one in a tactical race (and it will be) that can out sprint him is probably Manzano.

If Andrews can stay out of trouble, handle the bumps and bruises of a (likely) tactical first 1000-1200, and be in position to respond when the strike is made, then yes, I think he can finish in the top three. But remember Centro's finishing speed from last year ... just as good as Manzano. And Centro (& most of the others) has the tactical experience that Andrews is just learning.

If it goes out in 60/2:02, then it all comes down to who is positioned well for the mad dash to the finish. In a slow final, this race really is wide open. Can't wait to watch it.

[nicest person ever]

Wheating looked like he was in serious trouble in semi I

I was watching him very carefully the whole race. The way I saw it (and I could be wrong), it looked to me like he wanted to get to the outside to start his kick a LOT earlier than he ended up getting to, as a result of getting boxed in. He was completely surrounded with no way to get out, and you could see his head doing that quick glances panicked type of look for several hundred meters as he was trying desperately to find a way out of his box. He FINALLy found a way out of it just BARELY in the nick of time, and had just barely enough tarmac left to be able to use his notorious monstrous kick ability to close in on the front by the finish line (and looked as though he would've caught several more guys if not straight up won it had he been able to get out of his box earlier when he had intended to)

Thus, I think if he can:

1. Not go back to his bad habit of running a bunch of curves in lane 3 the way he has in some meets in the past (if you do the geometry math on how much further he has had to run in some of his races than the other top finishers in some of his races, it's almost UNFATHOMABLE, like, the math literally came out to being that he would've won by 30-40 meters if he had run all the curves from inner-lane-1, instead of finishing just a few feet behind the winner, it made me feel sick to the stomach to even think about)

and

2. Not get boxed in during the final lap

then, he will probably do VERY very well.

If he fucks up on either of those 2 things though, then everything goes out the window.

[optimistic]

I just hope these guys RACE and not just jog and kick.