Will Jeremy Wariner be on the 4x4?

[CoachK3311]

With Jeremy Wariner finishing in 6th place, do you think they will still take him to the Olympics to run in the 4x400 ?

[guru]

As I mentioned on the Trials 400 thread, Drummond has shown time and again a soft spot for the veterans, perhaps most notably at last year's Worlds when he went with an injured Angelo Taylor(who was on crutches between races) in the 4x4 final over the red-hot Mike Berry. Only Merritt saved them from disaster. I fully expect he'll have Wariner in the pool, and more than likely on the finals lineup.

[ATK]

Wariner has proved that he is not ready to be on any part of this team. He has gotten slower as the season has gone by, and while Mance, Nellums and MaQuay have proven their ability after rounds numerous times this season, Wariner has not.
But guru is right and Drummond might just see history.

As much as I respect Wariner and hold him as a legend in the event, a small part of me would actually want the US team to loose the relay if Wariner is on it. I just think it would be terrible for him to take the spot of an up a rising athlete who is better than him.

[jazzcyclist]

He's earned the right to run the heat.

[gh]

"earned"? Let me play devil's advocate (since I'm a sucker for the old-guy scenario)

Since they could run Reese Hoffa on the first leg and still Q for the final (minor hyperbole alert), it doesn't matter who the two prelim guys are.

So if Wariner already has a shitload of medals, didn't perhaps some "youngster" earn what might be his only chance by finishing ahead of him?

[kuha]

Hmmm...can we get Adam Nelson on that team?

[berkeley]

"earned"? Let me play devil's advocate (since I'm a sucker for the old-guy scenario)

Since they could run Reese Hoffa on the first leg and still Q for the final (minor hyperbole alert), it doesn't matter who the two prelim guys are.

So if Wariner already has a shitload of medals, didn't perhaps some "youngster" earn what might be his only chance by finishing ahead of him?

They could run Reese Hoffa on the 3rd or 4th leg, but definitely not the first. Hoffa would require at least 3 lanes, and he could only have one before the break for the pole at 500m. I guess he could possibly run the 2nd if they put Merritt on the first, Reese might be able to get through 100m before the others caught up to him. However, then the rest of the field would have to swing out into lane 4 to pass him.

[Chris Kuykendall]

Wariner has proved that he is not ready to be on any part of this team. He has gotten slower as the season has gone by, and while Mance, Nellums and MaQuay have proven their ability after rounds numerous times this season, Wariner has not.
But guru is right and Drummond might just see history.

As much as I respect Wariner and hold him as a legend in the event, a small part of me would actually want the US team to loose the relay if Wariner is on it. I just think it would be terrible for him to take the spot of an up a rising athlete who is better than him.

This trashing of Wariner both on this thread and the Trials 400 thread baffles me. My understanding is that, in London, they can run four guys in the final and can take two alternates possibly to run prelim. By my arithmetic, that comes to six. Wariner finished sixth in the Trials 400. He's the sixth fastest guy in the United States in that event. Why would you want to take somebody slower instead? This "rising athlete who is better than him" is, demonstrably by the Trials results, a fictitious person, other than the five guys who finished first through fifth who I have no problem with filling the other five slots. The Trials are clutch time. Wariner finished faster than Verburg in two of three rounds. Roberts ran 45.64 in the prelims and 45.68, twelfth overall, in the semis. Hughes was 45.64 and 45.63, and coming into the Trials he had a season best 45.41 for 10th at the NCAAs. Lawrence ran 45.82 and 45.40 at Eugene, behind Wariner in his semi, and didn't make the NCAA final. Berry with a 44.75 at Des Moines is a possibility, but we kind of need to know why the 46.29 at the Trials which are where, not the NCAAs, people get their big chance to go to the Olympics and need to perform. So I'm kind of curious who this better guy is, because we know Wariner has plenty of relay experience. Wariner may not end up going to London, but the trashing is way off.

[guru]

This trashing of Wariner both on this thread and the Trials 400 thread baffles me. My understanding is that, in London, they can run four guys in the final and can take two alternates possibly to run prelim. By my arithmetic, that comes to six. Wariner finished sixth in the Trials 400.

Taylor will have one of those pool slots(assuming he's top 4 in 400H)

[Chris Kuykendall]

Taylor will have one of those pool slots(assuming he's top 4 in 400H)

The USOC says: "Selection to the relay pool does not automatically guarantee that an athlete will compete in the relay. Any Olympic Team member may be added to the relay." So you've got six in the pool, but somebody else from the Olympic team can still run the relay instead. If Taylor is top three and on the team already, my reading is they don't need to use up one of the six slots, putting him in one of those slots, in order for him to be relay-eligible. He's already eligible, as I read it. If that's wrong, then somebody tell me so.

I'm also not understanding, anyway, from where the certitude arises that Taylor "will have" one of the six slots if he finishes 4th in the 400 hurdles. The USOC: "The decision to place the two (2) discretionary athletes, per gender and per event, in the relay pool will be based on the 2012 U.S. Olympic Team relay coach’s judgment of that athlete’s ability to contribute to the success of the relay team." The USOC then lists five judgmental considerations. So unless guru is that coach or has a crystal ball, I fail to see how the certitude is warranted.

[guru]

So unless guru is that coach or has a crystal ball, I fail to see how the certitude is warranted.

Considering Drummond's loyalty to Taylor at Worlds last year, and the fact he broke 45 in early May, I'd be willing to bet my house Taylor will be in Drummond's London gameplan(and probably deservedly so after his Doha run)

[SQUACKEE]

Reese Hoffa is a wonderful choice to lead off, except I think the 2nd runner might be throw off when Reese hands him a turkey leg rather then the stick.

[ATK]

This trashing of Wariner both on this thread and the Trials 400 thread baffles me. My understanding is that, in London, they can run four guys in the final and can take two alternates possibly to run prelim. By my arithmetic, that comes to six. Wariner finished sixth in the Trials 400. He's the sixth fastest guy in the United States in that event. Why would you want to take somebody slower instead? This "rising athlete who is better than him" is, demonstrably by the Trials results, a fictitious person, other than the five guys who finished first through fifth who I have no problem with filling the other five slots.

I'm not trashing Wariner, I'm stating facts. I respect his legend status but see it as unfair to run him over a younger athlete who is currently better than him.
The only athletes who will potentially be in the relay pool who are older than Wariner are Taylor, Jackson, and Tinsley who is the same age. But they are currently the top 3 Hurdlers in the US and have proven their fitness their(and Taylor is sub 45 in the flat this year and has beaten Wariner.)
Just because he was 6th does not mean they just go down the line of 400m finishers.
They don't have to run 2 alternates in the prelims. They will run who they think is the best team to qualify to the finals and the best team to win a gold medal.
Also notice that last year Miles Smith who finished in 6th at USA's in the 400m was not included in the relay pool.

[john6370]

No JW should not run. Even if he gets picked he should turn it down. I do have alot of respect for him but i will have A lot more if he gets picked and turns it down. Let the guys that beat him run because it is a once in a lifetime for most runners and JW has already won a lot and did not earn the right to run this year.

[DJG]

This being the 4x4 and not the 4x1 relay, the US will use two subs in the prelims,
just like they have seemingly always done.

Can Wariner be in the relay pool? Yes.
Are there other 400 and 400H athletes who should be in the pool? Yes.

9 or 10 men and 9 or 10 women will be named to the 4x4 relay pool at the end of the US Trials.
after some relay practices and maybe running a 4x4 race (the 4x4 doesn't need exchange practice like the 4x1's), six will be named to go with the team to London. Other US team members are still available to run, (Hoffa will have to be able to fit in a matching uniform, and must promise not to block or tackle anyone from the Home Team, aka, UK).
A relay Card with the six athletes names will be submitted just before the prelim; two subs MAY be used.

There is much precedent for the US relays to get a fading star one more medal at WC or OG's.
by using him/her as subs. This works out fine usually for the 4x4, but creates higher risks for the 4x1's. (More on that topic, down the road.)

Will Wariner be given one last race on the World Stage?
Too soon to say. A case could be made for yes or no.
I imagine what the competition in the 4x4 will look like will have some bearing on the answer.

[kamikaze7]

This has shades of Carl Lewis vs Jon Drummond circa 1996

[Chris Kuykendall]

I respect his legend status but see it as unfair to run him over a younger athlete who is currently better than him.

You have previously stated, "Wariner has proved that he is not ready to be on any part of this team." The only team of relevance, for the subjective selection to be made by the relays coach, is the Olympic team. There are five guys who, by the Trials results, look better. But you still have not identified who is the younger sixth athlete, for the six relay-plus-alternate slots, who's better, because there aren't any who demonstrably are based on the Trials. So, if you haven't identified anybody, you also haven't stated a case for why it's "unfair" compared to the unidentified younger athlete. I am well aware they can put Wariner on the Olympic team as relay alternate but then never run him. I thought I already said that. I'm in agreement that he's not a good choice for the Olympic final. Olympic prelims, the relays coach can make the call, if the relays coach puts Wariner on the Olympic team at all. But you keep claiming there is somebody younger who is better, for a relay alternate slot, when I can't figure out who that is and you're not telling us. Tinsley is marginally younger than Wariner. Tinsley has never run under 46, much less 45, acording to the stats I've looked up. Taylor and Jackson are older than Wariner, and if they make the Olympic team in the 400H as TFN projects, they can run in the Olympic relay without wasting one of the sixth slots on them.

[ATK]

I respect his legend status but see it as unfair to run him over a younger athlete who is currently better than him.

You have previously stated, "Wariner has proved that he is not ready to be on any part of this team." The only team of relevance, for the subjective selection to be made by the relays coach, is the Olympic team. There are five guys who, by the Trials results, look better. But you still have not identified who is the younger sixth athlete, for the six relay-plus-alternate slots, who's better, because there aren't any who demonstrably are based on the Trials. So, if you haven't identified anybody, you also haven't stated a case for why it's "unfair" compared to the unidentified younger athlete. I am well aware they can put Wariner on the Olympic team as relay alternate but then never run him. I thought I already said that. I'm in agreement that he's not a good choice for the Olympic final. Olympic prelims, the relays coach can make the call, if the relays coach puts Wariner on the Olympic team at all. But you keep claiming there is somebody younger who is better, for a relay alternate slot, when I can't figure out who that is and you're not telling us. Tinsley is marginally younger than Wariner. Tinsley has never run under 46, much less 45, acording to the stats I've looked up. Taylor and Jackson are older than Wariner, and if they make the Olympic team in the 400H as TFN projects, they can run in the Olympic relay without wasting one of the sixth slots on them.

If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team they will be on the relay, because they have the experience and have proven their fitness this year.
That leaves 4 more spots for the relay.
Wariner finished 6th to 5 guys who are younger than him by at least 2 years.
You do the math.

[Chris Kuykendall]

If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team they will be on the relay, because they have the experience and have proven their fitness this year. That leaves 4 more spots for the relay. Wariner finished 6th to 5 guys who are younger than him by at least 2 years.
You do the math.

No. If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team, it still leaves six slots, not four, if I read the USOC rules correctly, which is why I was asking in my first post if I was reading them correctly. Not to mention, you're changing your argument mid-stream. You were claiming there was somebody younger. Now you're retreating to Jackson and Taylor who are older than Wariner.

[ATK]

If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team they will be on the relay, because they have the experience and have proven their fitness this year. That leaves 4 more spots for the relay. Wariner finished 6th to 5 guys who are younger than him by at least 2 years.
You do the math.

No. If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team, it still leaves six slots, not four, if I read the USOC rules correctly, which is why I was asking in my first post if I was reading them correctly. Not to mention, you're changing your argument mid-stream. You were claiming there was somebody younger. Now you're retreating to Jackson and Taylor who are older than Wariner.

Im not chaning my argument. You confusing yourself.
Example last year. Jamaal Torrance and Mike Berry were 4th and 5th at USA's and were used in the prelim but not the final. Jackson and Taylor were.
This year the final will almost certainly include Taylor, Merrit and McQuay.
Merrit will not run in the prelims. He never has since 2005.
Your looking at a team of at least McQauy and Nellums for the prelims.
That leaves 2 spots for prelim.
Josh Mance and Manteo Mitchell finished ahead of Wariner and are younger than him.

Jackson and Taylor are to further explain why Wariner will(should) not be on the relay.

[asindc]

This has shades of Carl Lewis vs Jon Drummond circa 1996

It wasn't Lewis OR Drummond, it was Lewis or NO Lewis.

[asindc]

If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team they will be on the relay, because they have the experience and have proven their fitness this year. That leaves 4 more spots for the relay. Wariner finished 6th to 5 guys who are younger than him by at least 2 years.
You do the math.

No. If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team, it still leaves six slots, not four, if I read the USOC rules correctly, which is why I was asking in my first post if I was reading them correctly. Not to mention, you're changing your argument mid-stream. You were claiming there was somebody younger. Now you're retreating to Jackson and Taylor who are older than Wariner.

Im not chaning my argument. You confusing yourself.
Example last year. Jamaal Torrance and Mike Berry were 4th and 5th at USA's and were used in the prelim but not the final. Jackson and Taylor were.
This year the final will almost certainly include Taylor, Merrit and McQuay.
Merrit will not run in the prelims. He never has since 2005.
Your looking at a team of at least McQauy and Nellums for the prelims.
That leaves 2 spots for prelim.
Josh Mance and Manteo Mitchell finished ahead of Wariner and are younger than him.

Jackson and Taylor are to further explain why Wariner will(should) not be on the relay.

Past is not necessarily prologue when it come to relay selection. I think your assumption about Jackson and Taylor is reasonable, but it is only an assumption at this point.

[ATK]

Past is not necessarily prologue when it come to relay selection. I think your assumption about Jackson and Taylor is reasonable, but it is only an assumption at this point.

Which is why in my previous post I said, if Jackson and Taylor make the team.

[j-a-m]

If Jackson and Taylor make the Olympic team, it still leaves six slots, not four, if I read the USOC rules correctly, which is why I was asking in my first post if I was reading them correctly.

I believe this is correct.

[j-a-m]

This year the final will almost certainly include Taylor, Merrit and McQuay.
Merrit will not run in the prelims. He never has since 2005.
Your looking at a team of at least McQauy and Nellums for the prelims.
That leaves 2 spots for prelim.
Josh Mance and Manteo Mitchell finished ahead of Wariner and are younger than him.

Taylor and McQuay could still run themselves out of the relay final with sub-par performances in their individual events. But yes, I agree that realistically, the spot in the final is theirs to lose. And yes, #4 and #5 at USOT have earned the opportunity to prove themselves in the prelims.

[ATK]

This year the final will almost certainly include Taylor, Merrit and McQuay.
Merrit will not run in the prelims. He never has since 2005.
Your looking at a team of at least McQauy and Nellums for the prelims.
That leaves 2 spots for prelim.
Josh Mance and Manteo Mitchell finished ahead of Wariner and are younger than him.

Taylor and McQuay could still run themselves out of the relay final with sub-par performances in their individual events. But yes, I agree that realistically, the spot in the final is theirs to lose. And yes, #4 and #5 at USOT have earned the opportunity to prove themselves in the prelims.

But that's where Drummond comes into play. Taylor and Jackson both ran terrible last year, but were both picked for the final. And even so the US will have people to spare before they get to Wariner. The final could be Merrit, Nellum, Mance and Mitchell.

Lets not even forget that 3 hurdlers got to London. If Clement were to make the team, seeing as he has been on a few prelims and finals for relays.

[asindc]

Past is not necessarily prologue when it come to relay selection. I think your assumption about Jackson and Taylor is reasonable, but it is only an assumption at this point.

Which is why in my previous post I said, if Jackson and Taylor make the team.

Even if they make the team, it is still just an assumption that either will be chosen for the relay pool.

[gh]

Not true. If you name a sprint alternate IAAF rules mandate them as part of your pool of 6

[lonewolf]

Prediction: Wariner will be named to the relay pool, go to London, run in prelims and, if there is attrition in first four, run in finals.

[DJG]

Prediction: Wariner will be named to the relay pool, go to London, run in prelims and, if there is attrition in first four, run in finals.

Very good chance your prediction will come true.

One last curtain call.

[berkeley]

People seem to assume this is JW's last chance at a global championships. He's only 29, and although he has not really found his groove for several years, he could still easily have a sub 44.5 year next year, make the WC team and even be a contender.

Hoffa should be recruited to rough up Dai Greene at the start. Wipe the sanctimonious leer off his face.

[cladthin]

People seem to assume this is JW's last chance at a global championships. He's only 29, and although he has not really found his groove for several years, he could still easily have a sub 44.5 year next year, make the WC team and even be a contender.

Hoffa should be recruited to rough up Dai Greene at the start. Wipe the sanctimonious leer off his face.

He's actually 28, I believe.

[rhymans]

It would seem logical to include Wariner in the squad. Had he placed 7th I'd be a bit leery of including him. Drummond might consider that Jackson (45.3 from a running start) and to a lesser extent Taylor (45.00 also from a running start) did not really deliver the goods in Daegu, and could be risky to choose. With good opposition from the Bahamas and possibly good competition from Jamaica, Drummond doesn't want to end up sitting on the track for half an hour in protest at the performance of his squad.

[JumboElliott]

Wariner is still good for a high 43/low 44 split. He'd be better than some of the others mentioned, and it's not like USA has any chance of losing. Did anyone see what a USA team led off by Calvin Smith did at Penn against a Bahamian A team?

[CoachK3311]

Last Year’s 4x4 was a disaster!!!! If Bolt would have ran the 4x4 Jamaica would have easily defeated the USA. I’m a little worried about the college guys being able to hold up that long. (indoor, outdoor, Olympics) Jeremy has 6 weeks to train and get better. He has experience and could be a better 4x4 runner over a better open 400 runner because they are totally two different races.