Sometimes I go to an on-line table and try to figure out what is the most likely way for a decathlete to get , say, 9000 points. Not a prediction, just a way of thinking about what would be the most likely way for him to do it. The following adds up to 9002 for Eaton.
I think Beach might beat 8200. Hardee can probably drop-kick the JT and get 8200.[/quote]
I think that Beach is way overrated because of his performance indoor. If we look at his PBs we have: 10.78 - 7.56- 12.62-2.07-46.90-14.56-39.06-4.90-48.22-3:59.13 for a total of 8259 Which is just above the “A” standard. We also need to remember that some of these marks are done when he competed in individual events, some are wind added (LJ) and all probably with better condition than in Eugene. If we look at his PRs during (two days) decathlon, which is usually a better guide: 10.78 - 7.56- 12.08-2.07-46.90-14.59-39.06-4.80-48.22-4:07.85 for a total of 8,154 He is already below the “A”. So in order to get the “A” Beach will need close to perfect competition in bad weather. Without large improvement in his throwing abilities I can't see him get the “A” in Eugene.
For Clay, an 8500 point performance would prove that he is to be considered a medal threat in London. Given his past performances, I've listed below what pace he would need to achieve event by event in order to reach that goal. For comparison, I've done the same for Eaton and Hardee - in Hardee's case, allowing for a much weaker JT than he would achieve if fully healthy.
This chart may be helpful in figuring out how each of these three is doing relative to the others, and relative to 8500 points.
First column is mark; second is score for that event; third is cumulative score
A big question here is, does Clay go all-out for a big score and competition with Eaton & Hardee, or does he play it safe and simply go for a 3rd-place and B-standard score? (I'm not clear on all the scenarios, but will a B-standard be good enough to go if only Hardee and Eaton have A-standards?)
After the big three, who's next? Here are some 1st day results to look for that will give us clues:
Jake Arnold: In his comeback, Jake has set a decathlon PR in the 100 (10.93); however, he's performed well below his previous standards in the LJ, SP, and HJ. If he hits 6.8+ in the LJ, 14.6+ in the SP, and 2.00+ in the HJ, he'll be well on his way to 8200+, and the favorite after Eaton, Hardee, and Clay.
Beach: I find it hard to come up with a scenario in which he scores 8200 points, as I don't see evidence of improvement in his very weak throws.
Harlan: Similar to Beach, except his weaknesses are in the running events instead of the throws. I don't see him scoring 8200.
Chris Helwick: A sleeper with a real shot at the top place outside the big 3. 8143 PR from 2008, PRs that sum to 8672. Look particularly at his SP. He had a 14.47 put indoors this year, but has never gone over 14m in a decathlon. If he can hit 14.5+, LJ 7.2 and HJ 2.0, he'll have a decent shot at 8200. On day 2, if he's still in the mix, look for his erratic JT: He's thrown 72m, but has also had decathlons in which he hasn't reached 60m.
jeremyp wrote:What's with the USATF site? First it gives live results then it doesn't? Where are the results??? Anybody? All I get is a blank screen in the USATF results section. What do I need to do to get them?
I had a similar problem. Try clearing your cache, or opening the page in a different browser.
If his LJ is as good as his 100 relative to his usual marks, he may break 2100 for the first two events. Of course, then come the shot put which will bring him back to earth about as quickly as it brings his shot back. Then follows the HJ and 400, some more point potenntial.
Clay a solid 7.40 in his opening LJ. Beach a good 7.42. With solid scores on their first jumps, each can attack the board on their last two.
The rest of the long jump will give us information about Clay's attitude toward this competition. If all he wants to do is to qualify and he's nursing injuries, he could pass his last two jumps. If he goes all out, that's a good indication he's in this for as high a score as possible.