¶2012OT mDec—Ashton Eaton 9039 WR!!!!!

[gh]

T&FN formchart

1. Ashton Eaton ¶ (Oregon TC) 2
2. Bryan Clay (Asics) (2)
3. Trey Hardee ¶ (Nike) 1
4. Curtis Beach (Duke) 6
5. Ryan Harlan * (unattached) 4
6. Wesley Bray (unattached) nr
7. Chris Randolph (unattached) nr
8. Joe Detmer (unattached) 8
9. Kevin Lazas * (Arkansas) nr
10. Miller Moss (unattached) 5

will Clay get a Q?

[Grasshopper]

There's no way Clay finishes 2nd (as you predict) without scoring the B-standard of 8200.

[unclezadok]

There's no way Clay finishes 2nd (as you predict) without scoring the B-standard of 8200.

I thought 8200 was the A standard. Of course, there is also no way Clay finishes 2d without getting 8200. I think Beach might beat 8200. Hardee can probably drop-kick the JT and get 8200.

[gh]

There's no way Clay finishes 2nd (as you predict) without scoring the B-standard of 8200.

just to clarify, that's "you" plural, not singular. As in, their not gh's picks. I take neither credit for bits of genius nor blame for screwups.

[Grasshopper]

There's no way Clay finishes 2nd (as you predict) without scoring the B-standard of 8200.

just to clarify, that's "you" plural, not singular. As in, their not gh's picks. I take neither credit for bits of genius nor blame for screwups.

Duly noted. And, BTW, I agree with the prediction that Clay will surprise many and get 2nd (or hopefully even win it all!).

[unclezadok]

Sometimes I go to an on-line table and try to figure out what is the most likely way for a decathlete to get , say, 9000 points. Not a prediction, just a way of thinking about what would be the most likely way for him to do it. The following adds up to 9002 for Eaton.

10.46-8.12-14.85-2.08-45.98-13.50-46.10-5.20-59.08-4:32.

This is probably not the occasion when he will get 9000, but that's how he might do it.
You can do it for kids like Beach and Nixon too. Of course you will be guessing more. But maybe not that much.

[26mi235]

Go to the thread about the scoring tables or just the IAAF link and get the formulas for the events. They are pretty easy to program into a spreadsheet and then you can easily do 'what-ifs',

[TimRoy]

Here's a good place to go to play with projections:

http://cheshireaa.com/statistics/CEscoring.htm

[olorin]

I think Beach might beat 8200. Hardee can probably drop-kick the JT and get 8200.[/quote]

I think that Beach is way overrated because of his performance indoor.
If we look at his PBs we have:
10.78 - 7.56- 12.62-2.07-46.90-14.56-39.06-4.90-48.22-3:59.13 for a total of 8259
Which is just above the “A” standard.
We also need to remember that some of these marks are done when he competed in individual events, some are wind added (LJ) and all probably with better condition than in Eugene.
If we look at his PRs during (two days) decathlon, which is usually a better guide:
10.78 - 7.56- 12.08-2.07-46.90-14.59-39.06-4.80-48.22-4:07.85 for a total of 8,154
He is already below the “A”.
So in order to get the “A” Beach will need close to perfect competition in bad weather. Without large improvement in his throwing abilities I can't see him get the “A” in Eugene.

[DecFan]

For Clay, an 8500 point performance would prove that he is to be considered a medal threat in London. Given his past performances, I've listed below what pace he would need to achieve event by event in order to reach that goal. For comparison, I've done the same for Eaton and Hardee - in Hardee's case, allowing for a much weaker JT than he would achieve if fully healthy.

This chart may be helpful in figuring out how each of these three is doing relative to the others, and relative to 8500 points.

First column is mark; second is score for that event; third is cumulative score

Clay
10.65 940 940
7.62 965 1905
15.10 796 2701
2.00 803 3504
49.40 842 4346
14.20 949 5295
51.50 902 6197
4.85 865 7062
67.00 844 7906
4:54.0 595 8501

Hardee
10.60 952 952
7.65 972 1924
14.80 777 2701 (note: exactly equal to Clay after the SP and HJ)
2.00 803 3504
48.60 880 4384
14.05 968 5352
49.50 860 6212
5.05 926 7138
60.00 738 7876
4:49.0 625 8501

Eaton
10.54 966 966
7.75 997 1963
14.00 728 2691
2.00 803 3494
47.10 953 4447
13.85 994 5441
44.00 746 6187
4.95 895 7082
54.00 648 7730
4:26.0 771 8501

[Grasshopper]

A big question here is, does Clay go all-out for a big score and competition with Eaton & Hardee, or does he play it safe and simply go for a 3rd-place and B-standard score? (I'm not clear on all the scenarios, but will a B-standard be good enough to go if only Hardee and Eaton have A-standards?)

[TimRoy]

No, an A standard (over 8200) will be needed to join Eaton and Hardee. That still could be a conservative performance for Clay, though, if he's healthy.

[aaronk]

Here's another in my long line of possibly stupid questions (considering I've been a fan of T&F since 1962!!!):

Why are there 22 entrants listed as starting the 100 Dec heats (7-8-7)....
but just 19 listed for the next two events (flights of 9 and 10 each)??

DUHHHH!!!
Just answered my own DUMB question!!!
I read the LANE assignments in the 100 as being the ENTRY numbers!!!

[slowjo]

Less than an hour to go!!!

Sure wish there was a way for the rest of us to watch this.

[DecFan]

After the big three, who's next? Here are some 1st day results to look for that will give us clues:

Jake Arnold: In his comeback, Jake has set a decathlon PR in the 100 (10.93); however, he's performed well below his previous standards in the LJ, SP, and HJ. If he hits 6.8+ in the LJ, 14.6+ in the SP, and 2.00+ in the HJ, he'll be well on his way to 8200+, and the favorite after Eaton, Hardee, and Clay.

Beach: I find it hard to come up with a scenario in which he scores 8200 points, as I don't see evidence of improvement in his very weak throws.

Harlan: Similar to Beach, except his weaknesses are in the running events instead of the throws. I don't see him scoring 8200.

Chris Helwick: A sleeper with a real shot at the top place outside the big 3. 8143 PR from 2008, PRs that sum to 8672. Look particularly at his SP. He had a 14.47 put indoors this year, but has never gone over 14m in a decathlon. If he can hit 14.5+, LJ 7.2 and HJ 2.0, he'll have a decent shot at 8200. On day 2, if he's still in the mix, look for his erratic JT: He's thrown 72m, but has also had decathlons in which he hasn't reached 60m.

[hooptampa]

10.21 for Eaton is the fastest 100 ever in the decathlon, beating Chris Huffins' 10.22.

http://www.decathlon2000.com/eng/861/to ... 00-points/

nice little start for him!

[slowjo]

Nice start in the 100 for the big guys.

Clay seems fit and ready.......

[jeremyp]

What's with the USATF site? First it gives live results then it doesn't? Where are the results???
Anybody? All I get is a blank screen in the USATF results section. What do I need to do to get them?

[HopStepJump]

Clay's family right behind us. He gave a wave to his kids walking out for long jump warmups.

[DecFan]

What's with the USATF site? First it gives live results then it doesn't? Where are the results???
Anybody? All I get is a blank screen in the USATF results section. What do I need to do to get them?

I had a similar problem. Try clearing your cache, or opening the page in a different browser.

[TrackCEO]

Photos of Ashton Eaton in his WR 10.21 are here:
http://glendora.patch.com/articles/clay ... ll-be-here

K E N

[26mi235]

If his LJ is as good as his 100 relative to his usual marks, he may break 2100 for the first two events. Of course, then come the shot put which will bring him back to earth about as quickly as it brings his shot back. Then follows the HJ and 400, some more point potenntial.

[DecFan]

Eaton, of course, was outstanding. But given expectations, Clay's 10.45 was equally impressive. Clay is 47pts ahead of 8500 pace . . .

In the chase pack, my dark horse Helwick ran quite poorly. Beach ran well (10.88), and may be leading the chase pack.

[DecFan]

Clay a solid 7.40 in his opening LJ. Beach a good 7.42. With solid scores on their first jumps, each can attack the board on their last two.

The rest of the long jump will give us information about Clay's attitude toward this competition. If all he wants to do is to qualify and he's nursing injuries, he could pass his last two jumps. If he goes all out, that's a good indication he's in this for as high a score as possible.

[Moura]

Eaton 8.23m!!! This is an A standard!

[Dave]

10.2 and 27' in the LJ for Mr. Eaton. I speculate that he goes for the WR.

[DecFan]

Oh my! Eaton 8.23/27'0"!!! A second decathlon event record, with no wind.

That probably would be good enough to put him on the US open LJ team.

[croflash]

Is Eaton human? Wow.

[jeremyp]

Holy moly!!! 27'????? No wind???? Home town advantage??? What's next 49' in the shot??

[BCBaroo]

ohmygawd

[odelltrclan]

Eaton, the beginning of an epic Decathlon? Amazing start!

[DecFan]

Eight events to go . . . and that's a long ways . . . but 9026 is surely possible.

14.40, 2.05, 46.96, 13.45, 5.10, 57.50, 4:18 would do it (9027).

[dbirds]

anyone have a mark for Hardee? I still cant get live results

[aaronk]

I do believe my prediction of an 8850 winning mark may have been a tad......CONSERVATIVE!!!

[Moura]

anyone have a mark for Hardee? I still cant get live results

Try with Firefox or Chrome. With IE I cannot see any resuts.