JumboElliott wrote:Jeremy was hurt in 2011.. People who aren't named Michael Johnson simply don't run early season 43 second races..
Jumbo.. I really hope your optimism pans out, as it seems a lot of current Wariner doubters (and I just reluctantly fell into that group) really wish him well.
My point is that until there are three American runners who are clearly better than Jeremy, he cannot be summarily dismissed. You can really only say that McQuay and Merritt are clearly better than him at this point.
JumboElliott wrote:Jeremy was hurt in 2011.. People who aren't named Michael Johnson simply don't run early season 43 second races..
Jumbo.. I really hope your optimism pans out, as it seems a lot of current Wariner doubters (and I just reluctantly fell into that group) really wish him well.
My point is that until there are three American runners who are clearly better than Jeremy, he cannot be summarily dismissed. You can really only say that McQuay and Merritt are clearly better than him at this point.
Berry is clearly better. Gil Roberts is clearly better.
ATK wrote:Berry is clearly better. Gil Roberts is clearly better.
You are sure that they would either beat Santos or finish a mere step behind? What makes you so certain?
How many times does Sprinter X have to run faster than Sprinter Y for it to become certain? McQuay, citing only one example, ran faster than JW four times in the span of 72 hours.
ATK wrote:Berry is clearly better. Gil Roberts is clearly better.
You are sure that they would either beat Santos or finish a mere step behind? What makes you so certain?
Huh? Im talking about compared to Jeremy Wariner.
Berry ran 44.8 winning West Preliminary round after running 45 in the first round. He then ran 45.0 in prelims and came second to McQuay in 44.7 at NCAA's Those are 2 times superior to Wariner's season best.
Gil Roberts has run 44.93 in the season Ran 46 then 45.4 at west prelims ran 44.8 then 44.9 after rounds Again he has 2 times superior to Warnier's season best.
There is nothing this year that has indicated Wariner will make the team.
Wariner has literally been running worse as the season goes on 44.5 relay split? 44.96 45.04 45.68 45.30 And that does not include beating competition, he has only won one open 400m race.
He has lost to Merrit K James Chris Brown Angelo Taylor Kevin Borlee Martin Rooney and Santos
In terms of time, he is the #5 american in the world this year, was #4 last year.
He has broken 45 once, while 3 of the 4 ahead of him have done it at least twice.
Lets face it, you guys are trying to give Wariner the benefit of the doubt considering his past.
ATK wrote:Berry is clearly better. Gil Roberts is clearly better.
You are sure that they would either beat Santos or finish a mere step behind? What makes you so certain?
How many times does Sprinter X have to run faster than Sprinter Y for it to become certain? McQuay, citing only one example, ran faster than JW four times in the span of 72 hours.
It counts a lot when it is in the same venue at the same time. In other cases the times can be significantly affected by a variety of factors. That is why using Santos as a metric is useful. Not sure why that concept is so hard to accept. None of those guys has beaten Santos (Merritt, but he is not the one you are arguing about). And Santos' 44.45 has run better times than the collegiate crew, I think (and those guys are peaking to some extent). Thus, finishing only 0.06 behind him gives reason to pause when interpreting the 45.30 as being much weaker than some guys at the NCAAs. Yes, he might not have it this year, but this race does not tell you that in any unambiguous way.
This back and forth on Wariner is kinda fun, but this can't possibly go past the Oly trials, which are coming right up. All shall be revealed. BTW, Track and Field News (TFN) has JW at #2 in their US form chart (as of May 21): 1. LaShawn Merritt 2. Jeremy Wariner 3. Angelo Taylor 4. Gil Roberts 5. Tony McQuay 6. Bryshon Nellum 7. Calvin Smith 8. Manteo Mitchell 9. Greg Nixon 10. David Verburg They (TFN) also have Germaine Gonzales taking bronze in the games behind Merritt and James, but I'm not feelin' that.
The most recent form chart has him finishing fourth at trials, which is about right. I don't think he's going to win or finish second, but third is a distinct possibility.
It includes a link to video of the the Oly 400m finals in 2008. JW sure didn't want to talk about the whole Coach Hart issue after the race, did he! Can't say I blame him for being defensive. That move seems hard to justify, especially considering how JW went back to CH.
Anyway, JW likened the present to 2004 when he was not favored to win, although in his mind he picked himself as favorite. We'll see...I hate to say it, but JW winning gold sounds far-fetched at this point.
It includes a link to video of the the Oly 400m finals in 2008. JW sure didn't want to talk about the whole Coach Hart issue after the race, did he! Can't say I blame him for being defensive. That move seems hard to justify, especially considering how JW went back to CH.
Anyway, JW likened the present to 2004 when he was not favored to win, although in his mind he picked himself as favorite. We'll see...I hate to say it, but JW winning gold sounds far-fetched at this point.
That was a good read from Wariner. Its good to know that he is care free now and not "cocky", confused every time he looses.
ATK wrote:I will be very surprised if he finishes top 3 at trials. Like I said, there's been no indication.
There are more indications that he wont even make the final of the trials than that he will make the top 3. That article was not encouraging, I have never known of a case where increased domestic burdens and responsibilities has led to better performances.
Wariner has been humbled by his fall, which can be traced to his money-driven decision to leave Clyde Hart. Merritt probably would've beaten him in 2008 anyway. Still, Wariner has to live with a decision based on greed, and I'm sure it can't be comfortable.
Kind of serves him right. I'm not wishing him ill or anything, but he rolled the dice and lost. He gave up on a guy who was loyal and coached him since college. All over a few dollars. Then, when things didn't go well, he went running back. Could you see Sanya RR doing that? No. Wariner always came across as aloof and cocky when he was No. 1. But now, he seems, shall I say, likable.
He'll be thrilled with relay gold at this point, because even if he makes the team in the 400, he won't medal. May not make the Olympic final. And also, would Wariner be chosen to run the relay in the final? Or in the prelims? That might get political.
FBK [see below], etc, etc, but of course for women it is much easier because the man does everything at home........
Of course, this really means that you should look at the thousands and thousands of professional football and basketball and baseball players that seem to do just fine having kids added to the household. This [getting married/having kids] mistaken, blinders-driven comment is so far off the mark that calls into question the validity of anything else connected to the comment.
As for JW not making the final, that seems to be based on what I think is a mistaken reading of the race results (e.g., losing by a step to the top emerging athlete in the event while outrunning all the other good 400 runners in the race down the stretch). I rate his chances of being top-3 better than his odds of not making the Final.
Francina "Fanny" Elsje Blankers-Koen (26 April 1918 – 25 January 2004 (aged 85)) was a Dutch athlete, best known for winning four gold medals at the 1948 Summer Olympics in London. She accomplished this as a 30 year old mother of two, during a time when many disregarded women's athletics.
26mi235 wrote:As for JW not making the final, that seems to be based on what I think is a mistaken reading of the race results (e.g., losing by a step to the top emerging athlete in the event while outrunning all the other good 400 runners in the race down the stretch). I rate his chances of being top-3 better than his odds of not making the Final.
Why do you keep evaluating his potential at trials off this one race and not his entire season?
