Pre DL-400w: Sanya RICHARDS-ROSS 49.39 WL

[26mi235]

Let me get this straight, when SR ran 48.70, she did that entirely off of speed, without a lot of strength [did she win the 100 that year?]?

I think all of those women's times were better than they look on paper; Exhibit A is the men's 400, especially since the women should be affected by the wind more than the men.

[t_monk]

I just picture SRR being run down by Ohuguru if she is in striking distance. And Felix did a similar tactic with Montsho in 2011 and that didn't end well with Felix either (and Felix was the fastest in that field). And as 'pedestrian' as the 49.56 for Montsho in Daegu was I believe were conditions more conducive that time would be considerably faster. Sherieka Williams is also a very strong finisher when she is 100% and Novelene was able to gain slightly on SRR in the closing sections of that race.

This wasn't some emphatic victory, the margin of victory was quite small and as some are saying this is a perfect run for her. Even in her own interview she stated that she hit all her marks almost perfectly (she wanted to run 23.5 for the first 200 and ran 23.4). A perfect run for her and she it is not an emphatic victory I'm guessing they are aiming for 23.5 + 25.0 split for a 48.5... I don't know why but I just don't see that happening.

[t_monk]

If home girl has perfected her race strategy and doesn't go out hard as she did in her 48.xx races then she isn't going to be breaking 49. Even in that Berlin run, Sanya was right up on the shoulder of S. Williams (the eventual silver medalist) who herself did not go out slow. At the top of the curve she was already in the lead, in this race at the top of the curve she was actually behind >_> SRR is not just going to be able to run people down in the homestretch like that everytime. I just think this is a risky tactic for her and seeing that she is as speedy as everyone says she is, she should use her speed to put the field away and hang on for dear life (unless she is not as STRONG as she was in 2006 where she had the speed + speed endurance). And if she does not have the requisite speed and speed endurance then she is susceptible to being beaten because I can see a number of women getting to 49.low and a few 48.high, SRR needs to get to 48.mid to just put everyone away.

SRR confidence is high I assume but I'm sure Montsho and Williams-Mills at least are also high on confidence knowing SRR is within striking distance. SRR needs to just destroy any/everyone's though of questioning her place as the queen in the 400.

I really think the season is shaping up nicely for Montsho if she was able to run with SRR so closely in this race though. This is her 2nd major 400 (where she actually had competition) and she is improving quite well.

[TrackDaddy]

"Homegirl" "isnt going to be breaking 49" "speedy as she says she is"



Well "homegirl" won the 09 WC by a relatively "slim" margin (.30) using this same strategy and ran 49 flat. The margin was similar to the one you saw yesterday which is plenty for ANY "sprint" long or short. Using the SAME strategy as you saw yesterday "homegirl" also ran 48 not once but twice. Not sure what race you're watching or why you feel the margin must be excessive? Go llok at Beijing when she got out fast and initially ran away from the field. Then look at Berlin where she ran a tactical race and made her move in the final bend. A long dead and decayed Ray Charles can see that.

If Sanya runs with TBO at 3/4 speed while TBO is sprinting all out and then into the final bend "sprints" at her own pace...shut it down, its over, lets all go home. IF Sanya front loads her race with speed then strength and endurance becomes a factor at the end, but this script has been flipped.

If you were to ask TBO which race she wants Sanya to run I guarantee you it isnt the one you saw yesterday. Thats not the race that gave TBO the gold in Beijing.

Could Sanya or anyone lose? Well thats why they're planning to have the race. But it wont be because she runs out of gas in the straight if shes patient and uses the model from Berlin (not sure what race youve confused it with).

[Marlow]

Not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but the x-factor in all this is a re-flaring of the Behçet's, which would nullify any and all bets. It sure seems to be in remission now, so here's hoping for the best.

[TrackDaddy]

SRR confidence is high I assume but I'm sure Montsho and Williams-Mills at least are also high on confidence knowing SRR is within striking distance. SRR needs to just destroy any/everyone's though of questioning her place as the queen in the 400.

I really think the season is shaping up nicely for Montsho if she was able to run with SRR so closely in this race though. This is her 2nd major 400 (where she actually had competition) and she is improving quite well.

Montsho and Novlene are within striking distance? How so? When have they sniffed 49.3 let alone quicker? Didn't they nearly pr and still get beat comfortably? Everybody was screaming about how Novlene beat Sanya in Jamaica and talking about how close the race was last week and Sanya's time only being 50.65, blah blah blah.

So she whacked 1.26 off her time and the agendas are being adjusted. I loves it!

And now Montsho and Novlene are "optimistic" about #1 being run down, #2 seeing the lead continue to extend even as the tape was being crossed and losing again to SRR even after giving everything they have in near pr efforts? Optimistic?

Got it.

"homegirl" has a new one complete with stars and stripes. let it go.

[TrackDaddy]

Not trying to be Debbie Downer here, but the x-factor in all this is a re-flaring of the Behçet's, which would nullify any and all bets. It sure seems to be in remission now, so here's hoping for the best.

Shes been rediagnosed and the lesions which cover her arms legs and have even been in her mouth affecting her diet, etc is now not believed to be Bechets.

But I agree her illness could be a factor that I pray doesnt resurface.

[Marlow]

not believed to be Bechets.

That would be most excellent. Perhaps she has it whipped, whatever it is!

[ATK]

If home girl has perfected her race strategy and doesn't go out hard as she did in her 48.xx races then she isn't going to be breaking 49. Even in that Berlin run, Sanya was right up on the shoulder of S. Williams (the eventual silver medalist) who herself did not go out slow. At the top of the curve she was already in the lead, in this race at the top of the curve she was actually behind >_> SRR is not just going to be able to run people down in the homestretch like that everytime. I just think this is a risky tactic for her and seeing that she is as speedy as everyone says she is, she should use her speed to put the field away and hang on for dear life (unless she is not as STRONG as she was in 2006 where she had the speed + speed endurance). And if she does not have the requisite speed and speed endurance then she is susceptible to being beaten because I can see a number of women getting to 49.low and a few 48.high, SRR needs to get to 48.mid to just put everyone away.

SRR confidence is high I assume but I'm sure Montsho and Williams-Mills at least are also high on confidence knowing SRR is within striking distance. SRR needs to just destroy any/everyone's though of questioning her place as the queen in the 400.

I really think the season is shaping up nicely for Montsho if she was able to run with SRR so closely in this race though. This is her 2nd major 400 (where she actually had competition) and she is improving quite well.

t_monk, what negatives or worries do you have about the other competition? It seems like you only think SRR will have a problem while everyone else can only improve and has an advantage over her.

[t_monk]

"Homegirl" "isnt going to be breaking 49" "speedy as she says she is"

Nice way to contort what I said... But let me state again what I said since you don't seem to get my point... Sanya Richards Ross is not going to break 49 if she continues to employ that tactic. Since she is such a speedster, she needs to get out fast and hard. She needs not to have the field with her with 100m to go like she had here, heck she should not be behind like she was here with 100m to go.

In her sub-49 races she went out harder than this. If she continues to run with this 'reserve to kick', running with her opponents, she is eventually going to meet up with someone (like Montsho, Ohoguru, Williams) who are VERY powerful in the closing sections of their race and will break her coming home. Novelene did that earlier in the season, Ohoguru did it in the Oly, Montsho did it to Felix, Williams did it to SRR in the Oly as well...

[t_monk]

My concerns with the others....

Novelene peaking too early and with this new race strategy leaving it too late to try run people down.

Ohoguru needs to be in it at 300 or no matter her closing kick she will be out of the medals period.

Montsho.... I see a lot of upside to her because her season has just started and she is running very well.

S. Williams... Not finding her 2008/2009 form and again leaving the race too early and allow whoever to run away from her.

Russians... not replicating in a majors in a big way.

Felix.... My question is whether she even runs the race.

McCorory... She just doesn't seem in it to win it or even medal.

Whyte... She has been silent too long, I'm concerned if she is 100%

And I can go on and on... I have concerns with almost everyone at this point except Montsho...

[TrackDaddy]

"Homegirl" "isnt going to be breaking 49" "speedy as she says she is"

Nice way to contort what I said... But let me state again what I said since you don't seem to get my point... Sanya Richards Ross is not going to break 49 if she continues to employ that tactic. Since she is such a speedster, she needs to get out fast and hard. She needs not to have the field with her with 100m to go like she had here, heck she should not be behind like she was here with 100m to go.

In her sub-49 races she went out harder than this. If she continues to run with this 'reserve to kick', running with her opponents, she is eventually going to meet up with someone (like Montsho, Ohoguru, Williams) who are VERY powerful in the closing sections of their race and will break her coming home. Novelene did that earlier in the season, Ohoguru did it in the Oly, Montsho did it to Felix, Williams did it to SRR in the Oly as well...

As I stated earlier-- I agree that Sanya should "kick" or make her move sooner than she did yesterday. I want her to be patient but she had my toes were curled in my shoes. When Montsho broke for the straight I was fit to be tied ...while Sanya patiently trailed.

I believe she used superior sprint speed-all other things being equal to catch Montsho and separate from them both. I'm not sure they were sprinting but I 'know' thats what Sanya was doing.

[mump boy]

If you were to ask TBO which race she wants Sanya to run I guarantee you it isnt the one you saw yesterday. Thats not the race that gave TBO the gold in Beijing.

I can guarantee that if you ask TBO 'what race she wants Sanya to run' she would look at you like you were totally crazy and reply 'What Sanya does is her concern i'll be running my own race'

[TrackDaddy]

If you were to ask TBO which race she wants Sanya to run I guarantee you it isnt the one you saw yesterday. Thats not the race that gave TBO the gold in Beijing.

I can guarantee that if you ask TBO 'what race she wants Sanya to run' she would look at you like you were totally crazy and reply 'What Sanya does is her concern i'll be running my own race'

Actually TBO is quite concerned with what Sanya does.

See...

She's got to be at the right place and the right time and, in fact, cannot win unless Sanya makes a mistake. Otherwise her "own race" would be just that as she'd be out of the other one.

[mump boy]

If you were to ask TBO which race she wants Sanya to run I guarantee you it isnt the one you saw yesterday. Thats not the race that gave TBO the gold in Beijing.

I can guarantee that if you ask TBO 'what race she wants Sanya to run' she would look at you like you were totally crazy and reply 'What Sanya does is her concern i'll be running my own race'

Actually TBO is quite concerned with what Sanya does.

See...

She's got to be at the right place and the right time and, in fact, cannot win unless Sanya makes a mistake. Otherwise her "own race" would be just that as she'd be out of the other one.

If Christine was concerned about others she's bother to actually run the 1st 300m !! (she might even compete in the 4x4 as well)

[26mi235]

"Homegirl" "isnt going to be breaking 49" "speedy as she says she is"

Nice way to contort what I said... But let me state again what I said since you don't seem to get my point... Sanya Richards Ross is not going to break 49 if she continues to employ that tactic.

t_monk: if it were great conditions for the 400 rather than rather mediocre (look at the men's race run at close to the same time -- Merritt had run 44.19 and here ran 44.9...) she might have run 48 in this race. "...is not going to break 49" is really rather strong after a 49.39 in those conditions.

[t_monk]

"Homegirl" "isnt going to be breaking 49" "speedy as she says she is"

Nice way to contort what I said... But let me state again what I said since you don't seem to get my point... Sanya Richards Ross is not going to break 49 if she continues to employ that tactic.

t_monk: if it were great conditions for the 400 rather than rather mediocre (look at the men's race run at close to the same time -- Merritt had run 44.19 and here ran 44.9...) she might have run 48 in this race. "...is not going to break 49" is really rather strong after a 49.39 in those conditions.

Well the wind speed has been a bit swirling and unpredictable at the meet. Just look at the Long Jump which had high +ve winds and high -ve and still winds at times. Merrit ran 44.19 a while back, his latest performance was actually a 45.xx, plus I think he has been tinkering with his race pattern since that 44.19 run thus the time shown here.

[fourjz]

It's 3 weeks until the trials so Natasha Hastings will be ready to make the Relay Pool.Yes a few collegiates will show up at the trials this year to make things difficult for the pros.

[TrackDaddy]

AK49 drops a 49.4 and now Sanya has company.

No disrespect to Montsho, Novlene or TBO but now it can be said that someone is breathing down her neck.

Sub 49 here we come.

[jazzcyclist]

I guess this is as good a place as any to post this observation which will undoubtably please TD and piss off NSO. I've seen enough evidence to indicate to me that Sanya has sub-22 ability. I haven't seen anything that would indicate that Allyson has sub-49 ability. Allyson devoted a whole year to the 400 and yet could only lower her PR to 49.59. I'm sure both TD and NSO thought she would run faster than that. It seems to me that Allyson and Sanya are probably equal when it comes to raw speed talent (fast twitch muscle). However, I believe that Sanya has more God-given endurance talent (lactic acid tolerance).

[ChuiTai]

...It seems to me that Allyson and Sanya are probably equal when it comes to raw speed talent (fast twitch muscle). However, I believe that Sanya has more God-given endurance talent (lactic acid tolerance).

Interesting observations. Is the latter just that or is there info besides work product which perhaps demonstrates the result?

I would also say that Richards-Ross' acceleration dynamics and qualities appear more favorable, whereas Felix though perhaps slightly shorter, optimizes contact length more favorably.

[jazzcyclist]

...It seems to me that Allyson and Sanya are probably equal when it comes to raw speed talent (fast twitch muscle). However, I believe that Sanya has more God-given endurance talent (lactic acid tolerance).

Interesting observations. Is the latter just that or is there info besides work product which perhaps demonstrates the result?

This observation is based strictly on her 400 resume, especially 2011.

[TrackDaddy]

Yes, jazz, I do find it pleasing.

It would be even more satisfying it others could acknowledge the same truth thats clearly before them.

NSO?

[jazzcyclist]

Yes, jazz, I do find it pleasing.

It would be even more satisfying it others could acknowledge the same truth thats clearly before them.

NSO?

Didn't you expect her to run faster than 49.59 last year?

[TrackDaddy]

Actually I was surprised with the pr and credit Montsho for pulling her to it.

Her previous pr came while running neck and neck with Sanya, similar to the Daegu final.

[jazzcyclist]

Actually I was surprised with the pr and credit Montsho for pulling her to it.

Her previous pr came while running neck and neck with Sanya, similar to the Daegu final.

So you didn't think she was capable of 49.59?

[TrackDaddy]

Actually I was surprised with the pr and credit Montsho for pulling her to it.

Her previous pr came while running neck and neck with Sanya, similar to the Daegu final.

So you didn't think she was capable of 49.59?

I just got to the point where I didn't expect it. People are still talking about a 4 yr old 2nd leg split in which you don't stay in your lane the whole lap but cut over. And in the yrs since, she hadnt improved her pr from 2007 or come within 1.7 of the split in the open event.

But if you think about it, she's still the 2nd fastest US 400m and among the best in the world.

[jazzcyclist]

I just got to the point where I didn't expect it. People are still talking about a 4 yr old 2nd leg split in which you don't stay in your lane the whole lap but cut over. And in the yrs since, she hadnt improved her pr from 2007 or come within 1.7 of the split in the open event.

The fact that her PR was four years old didn't bother me since prior to 2011, she only dabbled in the 400, similar to Sanya's dabbling in the 200 and her outdated PR prior to a couple of weeks ago. However, last year Allyson did more than just dabble in the 400.

[TrackDaddy]

I think she did more than dabble in it. In 2010 AF was ranked #1 in the event and was the US champ. But never ran below 50. Not to mention, professionally it seems like she's run it a lot more than SRR has run the 200 especially when you consider the 4x4.

[ATK]

I just got to the point where I didn't expect it. People are still talking about a 4 yr old 2nd leg split in which you don't stay in your lane the whole lap but cut over. And in the yrs since, she hadnt improved her pr from 2007 or come within 1.7 of the split in the open event.

The fact that her PR was four years old didn't bother me since prior to 2011, she only dabbled in the 400, similar to Sanya's dabbling in the 200 and her outdated PR prior to a couple of weeks ago. However, last year Allyson did more than just dabble in the 400.

She definitely was not dabbling in the 400 in 2010.

[t_monk]

I just got to the point where I didn't expect it. People are still talking about a 4 yr old 2nd leg split in which you don't stay in your lane the whole lap but cut over. And in the yrs since, she hadnt improved her pr from 2007 or come within 1.7 of the split in the open event.

The fact that her PR was four years old didn't bother me since prior to 2011, she only dabbled in the 400, similar to Sanya's dabbling in the 200 and her outdated PR prior to a couple of weeks ago. However, last year Allyson did more than just dabble in the 400.

She definitely was not dabbling in the 400 in 2010.

I think she was dabbling...

[TrackDaddy]

One dabbles in astrology.

Not hand grenades or the 400 meters.

[ATK]

The definition of dabbling I guess is not so clear.

[skiboo]

"Olympic champion Christine Ohuruogu, who in European terms, is the fastest non-Russian is focusing on just the 4x400"

http://tinyurl.com/cvthsh8

From home page link..........oh really? Ridiculous?

[preston]

The definition of dabbling I guess is not so clear.

Agreed that the definition is not clear, but in my opinion, she was dabbling. Everything about how she put that season together showed that it was an off-season/non-WC or Olympic year experimentation. Half the DL in the deuce and half in the 400m? Dabble. A full DL at 400m would have been a concentration, but no attempt to win a Diamond? Dabble.