Sub 11

[26mi235]

Add one more to the list -- SRR's 10.89/2.9 is about 10.94/2.0 and 10.99/1.0, so she has essentially made the grade already.

[t_monk]

Add one more to the list -- SRR's 10.89/2.9 is about 10.94/2.0 and 10.99/1.0, so she has essentially made the grade already.

If we extrapolate and correct for wind for everyone then the sub-11 list would be very much more exorbitant. If your going to correct by wind it's probably best to go with zero wind. I do agree though that if she were to focus on the 100 she could get to sub-11.

[26mi235]

If you go with zero wind you lose a number of sub-11s. I agree with keeping the official list as wind-legal, but having a 10.99/2.0 while excluding a 10.89/2.7 loses part of the reason to having the list, as few would likely take the position that the 10.99 time was better. Thus, like the T&F News lists for sprint/HJ marks, I would add wind-aided marks as an 'addendum'-type of thing. Besides, 10.89/2.7 now certainly indicates that she is probably the most likely addition to the list that people have been putting forward.

[t_monk]

If you go with zero wind you lose a number of sub-11s. I agree with keeping the official list as wind-legal, but having a 10.99/2.0 while excluding a 10.89/2.7 loses part of the reason to having the list, as few would likely take the position that the 10.99 time was better. Thus, like the T&F News lists for sprint/HJ marks, I would add wind-aided marks as an 'addendum'-type of thing. Besides, 10.89/2.7 now certainly indicates that she is probably the most likely addition to the list that people have been putting forward.

Her absence from the 'most likely' list is on the basis that she is a 400m runner who focuses on the 400m. The only season she has ran the 100m with any form of frequency is 2007 when she was ran the 200m at the WC and had a SB of 49.27 in the 400. I am not convinced she will be running the 100 often enough to get to sub-11 in strictly legal conditions.

Also, just a slight correction, the wind was 2.9.

I could add a whole bunch more people by adding a +2.0w to everyone's results #justsaying

[26mi235]

I could add a whole bunch more people by adding a +2.0w to everyone's results #justsaying

But not if you used 10.8x windy; I bet you could add at most a handful that have run 10.8w and that have not run sub-11 wind-legal (and it might be a small handful).

[preston]

SRR's 10.89 is the fastest all-conditions time run before April 1.

From Peter Larsons site
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_100no.htm

1 10.54 +3.0 Florence Griffith-Joyner USA 21.12.59 1 Seoul 25.09.1988
2 10.60 +3.2 Florence Griffith-Joyner USA 21.12.59 1h1 Indianapolis 16.07.1988
3 10.68 +2.2 Marion Jones USA 12.10.75 1rA Stockholm 01.08.2000
4 10.70 +2.6 Florence Griffith-Joyner USA 21.12.59 1s2 Seoul 25.09.1988
5 10.72 +3.0 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1s1 Eugene 26.06.2009
6 10.74 +2.7 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1 Eugene 24.06.2011
7 10.75 +4.1 Marion Jones USA 12.10.75 1h3 New Orleans 19.06.1998
8 10.76 +3.4 Marshevet Hooker USA 25.09.84 1q1 Eugene 27.06.2008
9 10.77 +2.3 Gail Devers USA 19.11.66 1 San José 28.05.1994
9 10.77 +2.1 Marion Jones USA 12.10.75 1 Eugene 31.05.1998
9 10.77 +2.3 Ekateríni Thánou GRE 01.02.75 1 Rethimnó 29.05.1999
12 10.78 +3.1 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 1 Modesto 12.05.1984
12 10.78 +5.0 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 1q3 Indianapolis 16.07.1988
12 10.78 +2.3 Merlene Ottey JAM 10.05.60 1s2 Tokyo 27.08.1991
12 10.78 +3.3 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1 Eugene 26.06.2009
12 10.78 +3.3 Muna Lee USA 30.10.81 2 Eugene 26.06.2009
17 10.79 +3.3 Marlies Göhr GDR 21.03.58 1 Cottbus 16.07.1980
18 10.80 +2.9 Pam Marshall USA 16.08.60 1 Eugene 20.06.1986
18 10.80 +2.8 Heike Drechsler GER 16.12.64 1 Oslo 05.07.1986
20 10.81 +2.4 Irina Privalova RUS 12.11.68 1 Rieti 06.09.1992
20 10.81 +3.8 Irina Privalova RUS 12.11.68 1 Rieti 05.09.1993
20 10.81 +3.5 Veronica Campbell-Brown JAM 16.05.82 1 Clermont 23.05.2009
23 10.82 +2.2 Silke Möller GER 20.06.64 1s1 Roma 30.08.1987
23 10.82A +2.8 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 1 Sestriere 21.07.1992
23 10.82 +2.2 Gail Devers USA 19.11.66 1 Eugene 17.06.1993
23 10.82 +3.5 Christine Arron FRA 13.09.73 1h1 Castres 26.07.2005
27 10.83 +3.9 Sheila Echols USA 02.10.64 1h2 Indianapolis 16.07.1988
27 10.83 +3.0 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 2 Seoul 25.09.1988
27 10.83A +5.1 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 1 Sestriere 29.07.1995
27 10.83 +2.7 Marshevet Hooker USA 25.09.84 2 Eugene 24.06.2011
31 10.84 +2.9 Alice Brown USA 20.09.60 2 Eugene 20.06.1986
31 10.84 +2.4 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 2 Rieti 06.09.1992
31 10.84 +2.5 Inger Miller USA 12.06.72 1 Walnut 19.04.1998
31 10.84 +2.9 Ekateríni Thánou GRE 01.02.75 1 Gateshead 15.07.2000
35 10.85 +5.2 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 1 Norwalk 14.06.1981
35 10.85 +2.4 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 1 Modesto 14.05.1983
35 10.85 +2.9 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 3 Eugene 20.06.1986
35 10.85 +4.7 Gail Devers USA 19.11.66 1s1 Indianapolis 09.08.1987
35 10.85 +3.0 Heike Drechsler GER 16.12.64 3 Seoul 25.09.1988
35 10.85 +2.3 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 2s2 Tokyo 27.08.1991
35 10.85 +2.3 Torri Edwards USA 31.01.77 1q3 Eugene 27.06.2008
35 10.85 +2.6 Veronica Campbell-Brown JAM 16.05.82 1r1 Thessaloníki 09.07.2008
35 10.85 +2.8 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1r1 New York City 30.05.2009
35 10.85 +3.2 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1 Eugene 07.06.2009
45 10.86 +3.0 Gail Devers USA 19.11.66 1 Eugene 04.06.1988
45 10.86 +2.8 Chryste Gaines USA 14.09.70 1 Berlin 10.08.2003
45 10.86 +2.2 Torri Edwards USA 31.01.77 1 Rethimnó 21.07.2006
45 10.86 +3.4 Lauryn Williams USA 11.09.83 2q1 Eugene 27.06.2008
45 10.86 +2.9 Murielle Ahoure CIV 23.08.87 1rA Clermont 04.06.2011
50 10.87 +3.5 Gwen Torrence USA 12.06.65 1 Eugene 02.07.1988
50 10.87 +3.0 Me'Lisa Barber USA 04.10.80 1s1 Carson 25.06.2005
52 10.88 +3.0 Evelyn Ashford USA 15.04.57 1 Walnut 29.04.1984
52 10.88 +3.9 Alice Brown USA 20.09.60 2h2 Indianapolis 16.07.1988
52 10.88 +2.8 Chandra Sturrup BAH 12.09.71 2 Berlin 10.08.2003
52 10.88 +2.8 Muna Lee USA 30.10.81 2r1 New York City 30.05.2009
52 10.88 +3.1 Carmelita Jeter USA 24.11.79 1h3 Eugene 25.06.2009
57 10.89 +2.2 Merlene Ottey JAM 10.05.60 2s1 Roma 30.08.1987
57 10.89 +3.1 Marlies Göhr GDR 21.03.58 1 Berlin 13.09.1988
57 10.89 +3.1 Kerstin Behrendt GER 02.09.67 2 Berlin 13.09.1988
57 10.89 +2.7 Juliet Cuthbert JAM 09.04.64 1r2 Austin 09.05.1992
57 10.89 +3.4 Christine Arron FRA 13.09.73 1r4 Montauban 15.08.2000
57 10.89 +3.5 Chryste Gaines USA 14.09.70 1 Eugene 22.06.2001
57 10.89 +2.4 Veronica Campbell-Brown JAM 16.05.82 1 Sheffield 21.08.2005
57 10.89 +2.3 Muna Lee USA 30.10.81 2q3 Eugene 27.06.2008
57 10.89 +3.2 Marshevet Hooker USA 25.09.84 1s1 Eugene 28.06.2008
57 10.89 +2.9 Sanya Richards-Ross USA 26.02.85 1r1 Austin 31.03.2012

[ATK]

Octavious Freeman of UCF ran a legal 11.10 +1.2 at Florida relays today.
She is very young, only a freshman, but would it surprise anyone to see her go under?

[t_monk]

Octavious Freeman of UCF ran a legal 11.10 +1.2 at Florida relays today.
She is very young, only a freshman, but would it surprise anyone to see her go under?

Would surprise me... Not denying her talent at all though.

[26mi235]

She needs to get a mere 1% faster? I will not be surprised if she can get that additional meter.

[t_monk]

She needs to get a mere 1% faster? I will not be surprised if she can get that additional meter.

I think she won't do it eventually... Just not this season.... I think she will get there next year or the year after. I just don't think that she will be able to do that with the load she will have in college plus she has been less than lucky where injuries are concerned.

[26mi235]

110.05/1.0 from Duncan has her on the verge of sub-11 (and would be 10.99/2.0

[Speedster]

If LSU allow it, I really think Duncan can make the US 200m team. She also ran a 22.55 in addition to this 100m PB.

[John G]

For the next crop of sub-11s I'd look for women aged 21 or 22 this year who were already running 11.1 or faster last year. At that age, improving by 2/10s in a season is not so unusual.
Carrie Russell and Jura Levy fall into that category.

I saw Asha Philip and and Schippers mentioned earlier. I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

[tandfman]

I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?

[Marlow]

Octavious Freeman of UCF ran a legal 11.10 +1.2 at Florida relays today.
She is very young, only a freshman, but would it surprise anyone to see her go under?

Would surprise me

Really? It's the young'ns that show great promise that have the best shot at significant PR drops; she seems perfectly poised to do that no later than the NCAAs. If not then, she seems the type to continue to progress through the OT. I doubt she'll make the team, but I can certainly see her under 11 this year. Fingers crossed!

[John G]

I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?

Higher expectations than we British have of her.

British fans talk of her as a possible member of the Olympic team and future UK record holder. Were she American, Americans (and ironically Brits as well) would be asking if she is the new Allison Felix and expecting her to do what Felix did in Athens.

[tandfman]

You're probably right, although I recall a couple of years ago, the British media were quite enthusiastic about her prospects, and I thought reasonably so, although one had to be concerned about putting so much pressure on someone so young.

Remember that in the US, unless and until you get to the point where you ARE Allyson Felix, the mainstream press are not going to write much about you at all. The true fans may know about you, but on a per capita basis, there are far fewer athletics fans than there are in the US, and far less media attention. It's quite a different environment.

[preston]

Jodie Williams has looked great in the past, but right now she looks more like Breen of Australia than Felix. Hopefully she will run her projected trajectory in the near future or it looks like she's headed for a flat spin stall. Schippers...I find it nearly impossible to get there when she's a part-time sprinter. The only other (multi) athlete to do it is Dreschler. Russell looks poised to step up but I wouldn't say the same about Levy. Just a feeling, nothing else.

Also, Freeman got off to a great start and Duncan ran well, but how come you guys havent added former World Junior Champion, Sheniqua Ferguson who ran 11.10 w1.2 and 11.07 w0.9 this weekend at Auburn to your list?

Personally, I don't see any of these women running under 11 even though it seems more than likely. When you consider Conference, Regionals and NCAA's along with team scoring there just isn't the discipline among college sprinters to fine tune like the pros do ...they endure. Remember, Gardner of Oregon last year? But, if ever there were a time to break the rules than Duncan, Freeman and Furguson would look like good bets to run under 11 as collegiates - something that doesn't happen that often.

[John G]

Jodie Williams has looked great in the past, but right now she looks more like Breen of Australia than Felix. Hopefully she will run her projected trajectory in the near future or it looks like she's headed for a flat spin stall.

You're right: her performances indoors were really disappointing and a step back from 2011. However, she was right in the middle of the most important term of her academic career so I imagine athletics took a back seat. Last year saw little progression in her times but I was really excited by her DL performance in London and thought it suggested she would have reached the final in Daegu (not a view though that was shared by any of my fellow Brits on this Board!).

I'm expecting mid 11.0x and 22.4 and would be disappointed with anything less.

[preston]

I'm expecting mid 11.0x and 22.4 and would be disappointed with anything less.

I'm trying not to be disappointed at all. The pressure is enormous and she may need some time to grow into herself so that she becomes the great sprinter everyone is expecting; however, if it doesn't happen by next year then I would say there was a problem. She doesn't have to be 11.0x/22.4x this year for me she just has to look like she's headed in that direction SOON.

[26mi235]

I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?

Higher expectations than we British have of her.

British fans talk of her as a possible member of the Olympic team and future UK record holder. Were she American, Americans (and ironically Brits as well) would be asking if she is the new Allison Felix and expecting her to do what Felix did in Athens.

If she were an American in college we might be asking if she can make the podium at NCAAs, not the Olympic team. Freeman has hit 11.12, Gardiner 11.03 (with a little help from altitude), and Duncan 11.05. They are FR, SO and JR, so they are not particularly old by comparison with Williams.

SO, what am I missing about Jodie (I do not remember all of what she has done and my impression is that her potential has some nuances beyond raw marks, so excuse my ignorance)?

[John G]

I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?

Higher expectations than we British have of her.

British fans talk of her as a possible member of the Olympic team and future UK record holder. Were she American, Americans (and ironically Brits as well) would be asking if she is the new Allison Felix and expecting her to do what Felix did in Athens.

If she were an American in college we might be asking if she can make the podium at NCAAs, not the Olympic team. Freeman has hit 11.12, Gardiner 11.03 (with a little help from altitude), and Duncan 11.05. They are FR, SO and JR, so they are not particularly old by comparison with Williams.

SO, what am I missing about Jodie (I do not remember all of what she has done and my impression is that her potential has some nuances beyond raw marks, so excuse my ignorance)?

Actually, it's probably the marks, or in particular one mark: 22.79 at 16. She ranks behind only Jones at that age (if we take out Cheeseborough and Boyle's A-assisted marks) and above Breuer and Felix. That aside, she is lightly trained and lightly raced and physically doesn't seem to fit the image of the 'early-developer'. To me everything about her screams potential.

[Speedster]

Jodie runs without any major technical faults and in my view, with natural development and some strength training and she'll get to those times, with the 200m her best chance, she doesn't seem explosive enough for the 100m, but it's early days.

The development of Duncan and Gardner is interesting given their pasts and the incredible improvement we've seen in their college careers is likely to be from a level of training and racing that Williams is no where near.

[TxHottrack]

I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.

Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?

Maybe because we have many preps/college frosh, that can compete on Jodie Williams level. No disrepect to Jodie, but we have a lot of youngsters on Jodie Williams. Octavius Freeman & English Gardner could give Jodie W a run for her money.

[nianchengyu]

Jodie Williams has looked great in the past, but right now she looks more like Breen of Australia than Felix. Hopefully she will run her projected trajectory in the near future or it looks like she's headed for a flat spin stall. Schippers...I find it nearly impossible to get there when she's a part-time sprinter. The only other (multi) athlete to do it is Dreschler. Russell looks poised to step up but I wouldn't say the same about Levy. Just a feeling, nothing else..

haha,Dreschler did it when she quitted hep,i quite disagree with you,schippers is brilliant to break 11s even if she do not turn to sprint,let us see what will happen future.

[preston]

haha,Dreschler did it when she quitted hep,i quite disagree with you,schippers is brilliant to break 11s even if she do not turn to sprint,let us see what will happen future.

I'm a big fan of Schippers so you don't have to sell me on her talent; however, I don't think it's possible for her to continue to be a heptathlete and run sub-11 (and that's if she ever runs sub-11). sub-11 is about more than just talent; it's about a disciplined race plan and that has to be practiced.

[norunner]

Maybe because we have many preps/college frosh, that can compete on Jodie Williams level. No disrepect to Jodie, but we have a lot of youngsters on Jodie Williams. Octavius Freeman & English Gardner could give Jodie W a run for her money.

Jodie Williams is a year younger than Freeman and Gardner and last year she was faster than Freeman. At age 18, Gardner was a lot slower than Williams and Freeman was only 0.02s faster. And i don't see any other young americans on the same level as Jodie.

[26mi235]

People tend to look 'up and down' for comparisons - faster/slower for the same age group. The should also be looking earlier/later. This is particularly the case when one of the athletes in a comparison got good early. You have to look at the performance growth curve of athletes that got good early, not of athletes the same age.

There are so many examples, especially for girls, where the athlete never gets much better than the early marks. For instance, a while back (pre-TFNews board) the fastest returning 800m girl had not two asterisks (**), denoting that they would be sophomores that year and the mark was made as a freshman, but five (*****), if I recall correctly - she was going into 7th grade (maybe 8th). I never remember seeing that name again, although she might well have populated the list further down in later years.

Now, In Jodie's case, I think we have someone that was very good not because they have been trained intensively for a long time but a possible star. However, I will wait on her until she at least 'walks up to the 11.0 line'.

[IanS_Liv]

Yep, in Jodie Williams' case her training progression is being carefully monitored by Mike McFarlane. Weights have been introduced gradually, as well as heavy training. I think us Brits also got excited because she knows how to win.

She's approaching the most difficult time of transition from Junior to Senior ranks, to training full time with a lot of expectation on her shoulders. I have a lot of confidence in her and the team around her. Should the stars align properly we may have three women running 11.1x/low 11.2x this year - Kwakye, Philip and Onuora - and also at sub-23 Oyepitan, Onuora and possibly Adeoye, plus others who can run sub-23 such as Ohuruogu, Freeman if fit and Ennis is capable of such times as well, so she'll have good competition domestically. These may not be earth-shattering times in the US/Jamaica, but the next level for Williams.

[t_monk]

Officially....

Carmelita Jeter 10.81
Kelly Ann Baptist 10.86
Kerron Stewart 10.98

[t_monk]

Now the list stands at:

Carmelita Jeter 10.81 1.0w
Kelly Ann Baptist 10.86 1.0w
Allyson Felix 10.92 0.7
Veronica Campbell-Brown 10.94 0.7
Kerron Stewart 10.98 1.0w

[Speedster]

Now the list stands at:

Carmelita Jeter 10.81 1.0w
Kelly Ann Baptist 10.86 1.0w
Allyson Felix 10.92 0.7
Veronica Campbell-Brown 10.94 0.7
Kerron Stewart 10.98 1.0w

Wouldn't surprise me if this was the 100m final finishing order in London, sans Felix who will probably focus on the 200m. Jeter and Baptist seem to run much more complete 100s at the moment with VCB forcing and searching for the line 20m out, which I think is ultimately slowing her down. If she runs through the line she might have a better chance.

[26mi235]

Madison gets it virtually with a sub-11 basic 11.01/-0.7

[t_monk]

Madison gets it virtually with a sub-11 basic 11.01/-0.7

Yup.... zero wind and she would have gotten it....

But officially the list stands at:

Carmelita Jeter 10.81 1.0w
Kelly Ann Baptist 10.86 1.0w
Allyson Felix 10.92 0.7w
Veronica Campbell-Brown 10.94 0.7w
Kimberly Duncan 10.96 1.9w
Kerron Stewart 10.98 1.0w

[26mi235]

I now officially disagree, any sub-11 basic time qualifies, especially since many sub-11s are not sub-11 basic. Another way of saying it is that the sub-11 basic club is harder than the sub-11 club, the club really is not quite worth its salt if you include a 10.99/2.0 and not a 11.00/-1 ...