Felix: Sucessful Double?

[t_monk]

Gabriella brings up an excellent point. Before 2008 I don't think any of us thought that SAFP would be the Olympic Gold medalist in the 100 and I doubt most of us saw a sub-22 coming from Kerron Stewart for bronze in the 200m either.

As much as I must confess that based off of last season the top 3 are VCB, Jeter and AF in that order (depending on whether AF doubles), the winning time at the WC last year was (at best) underwhelming to give a lot of other athletes a chance. The top 3 at the Olympics last year all ran 22.00 or faster for a medal... VCB 22.74, AF 22.93 and KS 22.00.

If we see a spike in performances this season, as I expect there probably will be some of those 'minor players' should be raising their game. Incidentally KS, SS, Lee and SAFP all have better PB's than Jeter and all could have upset even VCB for gold last year were they fit and ready. SS looks ominous already it seems with her 51.42 in the 400, KS opened with an 11.18, SAFP is a known entity and can spring a surprise and Lee, despite us not seeing much her, most didn't see much from her at the start of 2008 when she ended the season with a 22.01 PB.

The race only seriously gets out of the realm of the 'supporting cast' when athletes start dropping 21.8's and 21.7's. If ever the winning time is anywhere between 22.3 - 21.9... I think anyone between VCB, CJ, AF, SAFP, SS, KS, Lee, Solomon, Duncan, Tarmoh and Knight can EASILY challenge for a medal or damn well win the entire thing. Drop the winning time 21.7x... Well then there is when things truly get interesting and not that the others I mentioned can't get to 21.7x but so far the honor goes to only 2 athletes now in my assertion of actual ability.... Felix and VCB (I'm sorry but as great as Jeter is... and as much as she has the ability... she has yet to go 21.8... not even 21.0... so I am going to hold out on that verdict).

[26mi235]

Rio is a long way away and LSU's speedster already has hit a time that makes her a threat if she can repeat in that range when needed. It is not impossible for her to drop another half-second, in which case some of these ladies might soon be running for silver even if they beat the current competition. Gardner as well showed better 200 form than last year and she is only a sophomore so she and Duncan may push each other at NCAAs this year.

[jazzcyclist]

Duncan will run her first outdoor 200 this Saturday. Hopefully, the weather will cooperate with her so that we can all get a good look at where she fits into this picture. I can also tell you that Lee is fit and ready to make a run at her third Olympic team. One thing that's certain is that some really good 200 runners will be left off the team this year.

[ATK]

If ever the winning time is anywhere between 22.3 - 21.9... I think anyone between VCB, CJ, AF, SAFP, SS, KS, Lee, Solomon, Duncan, Tarmoh and Knight can EASILY challenge for a medal or damn well win the entire thing.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but It seems like your looking at it from a numbers standpoint,That since all these ladies have run in this time range, then if the time is around there anyone can win. But one it gets into the range that only AF and VCB have run then its all them.
If the winning time is in the 22.3-21.9 range, then your talking about the peak range for all of these ladies, except VCB and AF. I don't see how it makes sense for everyone to be at their best while those ladies are dropping back to average in the same race under the same conditions. I think VCB and AF have an advantage and any time, simply from a competitive standpoint. Only twice have these ladies gone under 22 in every final since 2004, yet they have both still been the dominant top 2.

I do agree with you on everything else you stated though.

[notorious]

Felix will just focus on the 200m.

[guru]

I can also tell you that Lee is fit and ready to make a run at her third Olympic team.

Not at 11.45 she won't. Lee has work to do. A lot.

[Speedster]

All this is what makes the 200m in London a better race than the 100m, big call I know, but looking at all the players, the threepeat, Felix without an individual Olympic Gold, Jeter new to the event, the usual Olympic unknown, people having an off year in 2011, the Daegu final being poor in terms of times - its going to be epic.

Unless injury becomes a factor, everyone should be raising their game this year, there's no second chances. VCB and AF should be the main challengers, but in 2008, i would have said the same of VCB in the Beijing 100m and look where we ended up.

[Gabriella]

At the start of 2008, who'd have thought Kerron Stewart would medal in the 200 in Beijing? At the start of 2004, who'd have thought VCB and Felix would go 1-2 in the 200m in Athens (and all of the 2003 medalists would miss out)? At the start of 2000, who'd have thought Pauline Davis and Jayasinghe would go 1-2 in the 200m in Sydney (and Jones would lose her medal)? At the start of 1996, who'd have thought Perec would be Olympic champion in Atlanta and Torrance and Privalova wouldn't factor at all? At the start of 1992, who'd have thought Juliet Cuthbert would be silver medalist in the 200m in Barcelona? At the start of 1988, who'd have thought Grace Jackson would be running 21.72 for silver in Seoul?

You get me?

2008 was probably the most predictable of all recent Olympic 200m finals, but we still had a surprise with Stewart winning bronze in her first senior champs 200m and improving to 21.99 from her 22.41 in 2007.

There's every reason to believe that in 2012 something similar will happen and it will not be VCB-Felix-Jeter as everyone expects.

[nianchengyu]

yeah, there are full of changeable factors,young talent will become stronger and stronger,old generation like stewart,simpson and so on still active in world stage.

[Speedster]

VCB said she via Twitter she is opening her season running the 200m this weekend at the Tom Jones Memorial in Florida.

[running4life]

Let's see what time VCB. I'm hoping a 22.22 at lease.

[Speedster]

That would be her fastest season opener event, she ran 22.32 in 2010. I don't think she needs to be that fast at this stage, if she gets a 1.5w like Jeter, I would be happy with 22.50.

[26mi235]

The wind in the 200 is not like the wind in the 100; in fact you can start into the wind that is later helpful, especially if the wind is coming from the right side of the straight (although you do get a little the longer section on the end-of-curve/straight).

[notorious]

Let's see what time VCB. I'm hoping a 22.22 at lease.

VC is going to run her own race. She will not race to "respond" to any time another competitor does in a another meet.

If she runs 22.5, I will be fine with that. I would have preferred her opening up with a 400m instead though.

[Speedster]

Anyone know what the sleeve Felix was wearing over the weekend? Shin splints?

[guru]

Anyone know what the sleeve Felix was wearing over the weekend? Shin splints?

That's my guess, I've seen a couple off track photos and it definitely wasnt a sock.

[26mi235]

A lot of runners are using such sleeves, so shin splints is not the only possible reason. (another sponsor?)

[guru]

(another sponsor?)

No

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash ... 6683_n.jpg

[TrackDaddy]

(another sponsor?)

No

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash ... 6683_n.jpg

It's underestimated how tough and durable you have to be to compete successfully at this level for any length of time. I was reading were Hooker (before announcing her pregnancy) was anticipating the pain her body would have to endure in preparation for this season.

You she mentioned going through things like butt lock to get there.

[notorious]

I see Allyson is taking my advice and working on her speed this season. In addition to running on the 4 x 100m last weekend at Penn Relays, she ran a 100m in Japan yesterday. She ran a creditable 11.20.

I read somewhere she is also running the 100m in Doha next week against VC , Fraser and Stewart. I can't see her finishing higher than 4th however.

[EPelle]

Winds, according to Felix, were horrible.

[Speedster]

Winds, according to Felix, were horrible.

Looks like it for the video. She had an average start but good finish as expected. It will be interesting to see how she performs in Doha. I wonder if the 400m in Jamaica has helped her make a decision on London?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKoDgumMFu0&sns=em

[guru]

I wonder if the 400m in Jamaica has helped her make a decision on London?

Apparently, still on the fence. But sounds like it's Kersee who will make the call.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/sports/T120507004799.htm

"I don't know(about doubling)," the 26-year-old Felix said about her plans after winning the women's 100 meters at Sunday's Seiko Golden Grand Prix at Kawasaki's Todoroki Stadium.

"I felt like I was happy I did it [the 200 and 400] last year. I got to learn a lot, took a lot away from it. I haven't decided yet. My focus is really on the 200 this year and I'll see. [Coach] Bobby [Kersee] will make that decision if I'll run the 400 at [the U.S. Olympic] trials or not."

[gh]

It's always Bobby who makes the call.

And this is a "tough" one in that with the way the schedule works, she can't make the 200 team then decide whether or not to add the 400, since the longer one comes first.

[guru]

And this is a "tough" one in that with the way the schedule works, she can't make the 200 team then decide whether or not to add the 400, since the longer one comes first.

At this point, it's precipitous drop off in the 200 once you get past Jeter and Felix(assuming Felix at least her average self). Barring injury it's pretty hard to see her not being Trials top 3.

That being said, things are starting to look alot like the runup to '08. These decisions should have been made 6 months ago.

[gh]

The decisions may well have been made ages ago! Cunning minds at work here.

[guru]

The decisions may well have been made ages ago! Cunning minds at work here.

Yes, that certainly occurred to me. But knowing how desperately Felix wants an individual gold in London, I'm inclined to take her comments at face value. Richards-Ross' resurgence, you can bet, has complicated things just a tad.

[gh]

and then just when you think SRR is about to be invincible, along comes Williams-Mills!

[26mi235]

And this is a "tough" one in that with the way the schedule works, she can't make the 200 team then decide whether or not to add the 400, since the longer one comes first.

At this point, it's precipitous drop off in the 200 once you get past Jeter and Felix(assuming Felix at least her average self). Barring injury it's pretty hard to see her not being Trials top 3.

That being said, things are starting to look a lot like the run up to '08. These decisions should have been made 6 months ago.

The 200 I saw this weekend had a decent American 200 victory.

[notorious]

The 200m in London is very simple. If Felix can't stay with Jeter and VC through the curve, she has not chance of beating them. Both Jeter and VC are 10.7 runners and Felix will have an extremely hard time keeping up as was shown in Daegu last year.

[gh]

The 200m in London is very simple. If Felix can't stay with Jeter and VC through the curve, she has not chance of beating them. ....

All depends what you mean by "staying with":

Osaka WC VCB leads 11.10–11.15 in the curve: Felix then runs 10.66 to 11.24 to win going away.

Berlin WC VCB leads 11.14–11.16 in the curve: Felix then runs 10.86 to 11.21 to again win going away.

Then last year you throw in three rounds of the 400 beforehand and the formula changes. VCB runs 11.03, Felix 11.31 and yes, it's all over, even though she did have the fastest second half.

[ATK]

Winds, according to Felix, were horrible.

Looks like it for the video. She had an average start but good finish as expected. It will be interesting to see how she performs in Doha. I wonder if the 400m in Jamaica has helped her make a decision on London?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKoDgumMFu0&sns=em

Looks more like they had a tailwind no? Anyone with the official results?

[guru]

Winds, according to Felix, were horrible.

Looks like it for the video. She had an average start but good finish as expected. It will be interesting to see how she performs in Doha. I wonder if the 400m in Jamaica has helped her make a decision on London?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKoDgumMFu0&sns=em

Looks more like they had a tailwind no? Anyone with the official results?

Slight tailwind (0.1)

[26mi235]

A strong wind may be a net tailwind (e.g., the vector component along the race is positive) while having a negative affect on the athletes. [and wind hurts 400m runners and others doing complete laps, but the 400 runners get no drafting.

For instance, it would seem that a cross wind would have no effect. However consider two out-and-back efforts on a bike on level ground. A is straight in to a wind and then back with the wind (say 5mps) while B is perpendicular to the wind. It is generally known that the head/tailwind arrangement is slower because the resistance scales with the square of the wind/riding composite vector. However, the crosswind slows the rider even more.

Thus, with a strong side wind, even with a modest tailwind component can slow rather than aid the runner.

[running4life]

The 200m in London is very simple. If Felix can't stay with Jeter and VC through the curve, she has not chance of beating them. ....

All depends what you mean by "staying with":

Osaka WC VCB leads 11.10–11.15 in the curve: Felix then runs 10.66 to 11.24 to win going away.

Berlin WC VCB leads 11.14–11.16 in the curve: Felix then runs 10.86 to 11.21 to again win going away.

Then last year you throw in three rounds of the 400 beforehand and the formula changes. VCB runs 11.03, Felix 11.31 and yes, it's all over, even though she did have the fastest second half.

Felix haven't beaten VCB since 09. Moving right along.