London 2012 hept - update

[26mi235]

Since the throws are almost 'linear' (power was a mere 1.04 or 1.05), for the Jav, the tables list 62.25 worth 1099 and 52.24 worth 904, so going up to 72.26 is worth just north of 1294 and adding 1.23 more is worth 24, so without doing the equation I get about 1320.

[Gabriella]

And this is the thing; no woman has thrown 62.25 in the heptathlon JT to score those 1099 points, whereas many women have run the 13.17 needed for 1099 points in the 100mh.

To score 1000pts in each event, these are the marks you need to achieve:

13.85
1.82
17.07
23.80
6.48
57.18
2:07.63

If I had time (which I may do when I'm bored) I could go through how many women have achieved those marks, but on face value it's clear that none of the current women have achieved 57.18 in the JT and none probably will either; and in the SP, only Skjyute and Dobrynska have ever beaten 17.07. Yet in the 100mh, 13.85 is what the poor hurdlers are running; the top women (top 10) are running between 13.40 (1065 points) and 13.00 (1124 points).

If we look at what is roughly mid-range i.e. the score that half of the women achieve, then 24.50 (933 pts) is about mid-range in the 200m, going to 23.30 (1049) for the best women.
Yet in the JT, mid range is around 42m (706 pts) so over 200pts down on the 200m scores. In fact, the top women Javelin throwers are doing around 54m at very best (and not often) which is only 938 pts; compare that to the 24.50 (933 pts) that mid-range hept 200m runners do.

1.77 is around mid range in the HJ. That equates to 941 pts. As with the 200m, the mid-range women are scoring more than what the very best Javelin thrower can achieve.

The interesting event is the LJ. Mid range now is about 6.20 (912 points) whereas in the 80's and 90's this was more common. This is definitely an event that has seen women struggle with more recently, however, it's still one that clearly outscores the JT and SP.

So, the bottom line is, as long as you're a good hurdler and jumper, you'll score well.

To nianchengyu, the reason why Skjyute scores well is that she's a good jumper, not just a good thrower. She can jump high 1.8's and is right at the top end of the women in that event, as well as jump between 6.2 and 6.3 in the LJ. Again, above average. But she has to be extremely good in the SP to counteract her poor hurdles; if she has a 'poor' SP (for her) and throws around 16m, she removes herself from the equation; she needs at least high 16's. And as pointed out earlier, she can achieve well over 900 pts in the hurdles with a mediocre run. But she'll never get big scores because of her poor hurdles and 200m, which clearly reward athletes unfairly compared to other events.

[nianchengyu]

And this is the thing; no woman has thrown 62.25 in the heptathlon JT to score those 1099 points, whereas many women have run the 13.17 needed for 1099 points in the 100mh.
To nianchengyu, the reason why Skjyute scores well is that she's a good jumper, not just a good thrower. She can jump high 1.8's and is right at the top end of the women in that event, as well as jump between 6.2 and 6.3 in the LJ. Again, above average. But she has to be extremely good in the SP to counteract her poor hurdles; if she has a 'poor' SP (for her) and throws around 16m, she removes herself from the equation; she needs at least high 16's. And as pointed out earlier, she can achieve well over 900 pts in the hurdles with a mediocre run. But she'll never get big scores because of her poor hurdles and 200m, which clearly reward athletes unfairly compared to other events.

sandersson has thrown 64.64m in 1981 which hep HB still count it in,skujyte has a outdoors best 1.87 in 2011, and before 2009, her best in HJ stood 1.85m and often around 1.80m,after moving to SP,she jumped much better in HJ,in Athens SHE only jumped 1.76m,6435 Austra Skujyte LTU 12/08/1979 2 Athína 21/08/2004
( 14.03/0.1 - 1.76 - 16.40 - 24.82/-0.2 / 6.30/-0.4 - 49.58 - 2:15.92 )
haha,just as some of friends said 100mh and 200m did not open a gap,espicially in this hep,14.02s very poor hurdles can gain 974p,only 101p from 13.33s,24.82s 903p,100p away from 23.77s, a quite good time for hep,49.58m means 852p,44.40m has a 100 gap to 49.58m,39.20m has 200 gap to 49.58m, means 13.33s - 23.77s-39.20=14.03s-24.82s-49.58m.
just see 13.85s easily can gain 1000p,however, even if you can reach world champion level of 12.50s,only 200p to open a gap,comparing to 49.58/39.20 also 200p gap,for 200m,21.81s can only1201p,300p than 24.86s,equalling 41.80m /57.29m also 300p,1.66m/1.90m also 300p gap.

[nianchengyu]

I also think hep is full of changeable espacially after 6 events some athletes score so close, few heptathletes ran 800m outside hep, i only knew Helga Margrét Thorsteinsdóttir of Iceland ran a 800m in her nation this year.why so few hep run 800m although their level much lower than specilized player,even Tminska never ran 800m outside hep,this made 800m in hep so difficult to predict,such as fountain, only ran 2.27s in NT,gaining a pb 2.15s in oly.

[Gabriella]

sandersson has thrown 64.64m in 1981 which hep HB still count it in,skujyte has a outdoors best 1.87 in 2011, and before 2009, her best in HJ stood 1.85m and often around 1.80m,after moving to SP,she jumped much better in HJ,in Athens SHE only jumped 1.76m,6435 Austra Skujyte LTU 12/08/1979 2 Athína 21/08/2004
( 14.03/0.1 - 1.76 - 16.40 - 24.82/-0.2 / 6.30/-0.4 - 49.58 - 2:15.92 )
haha,just as some of friends said 100mh and 200m did not open a gap,espicially in this hep,14.02s very poor hurdles can gain 974p,only 101p from 13.33s,24.82s 903p,100p away from 23.77s, a quite good time for hep,49.58m means 852p,44.40m has a 100 gap to 49.58m,39.20m has 200 gap to 49.58m, means 13.33s - 23.77s-39.20=14.03s-24.82s-49.58m.
just see 13.85s easily can gain 1000p,however, even if you can reach world champion level of 12.50s,only 200p to open a gap,comparing to 49.58/39.20 also 200p gap,for 200m,21.81s can only1201p,300p than 24.86s,equalling 41.80m /57.29m also 300p,1.66m/1.90m also 300p gap.

Sanderson's 64.64 is with the old javelin model, not the current model, when the then WR was 80.00. The furthest with the current model is Margaret Simpson's 56.36, with the current WR Spotakova's 72.28; a big difference. This is one of the reasons why the points system should have changed in 1999 when the current javelin model was introduced.

On Skujyte, yes, she did have a poor HJ in Athens, but she was lucky to get the silver medal as the event was in a transition that year; Barber was injured and DNS, Lewis was injured and DNF, Sazanovich DNF and Prokhorova was below form, eventually finishing 5th. That silver medal winning score is one of the worst ever. But even so, she still long jumped 6.30 which was the 7th best performance out of 33 women, and 4th amongst the medal contenders (discounting Tonn, Wheeler and Shobha) Even that poor HJ was 14th out of 33, but still higher than medal contenders Burrell, Prokhorova and Kesselschlager (and Lewis and Sazanovich who both did just 1.73)

After day 1 she was ranked 5th, with places 2 to 9 still in contention for silver and bronze, but her day 2 was great: 7th best in the LJ, 3rd best in the JT and then a good 2:15.92 in the 800m (12th best)

So, while I agree Skujyte has that great SP and gains points in that event, do not over emphasize that event; she still jumps well and should actually be scoring more for her superior SP and JT.

On the scores you quote, I agree, they’re not ideal and that’s the point; the system needs re-working. But you are still not rewarded if you’re a great javelin thrower or shot putter compared to runner/hurdler/jumper.

[mump boy]

sandersson has thrown 64.64m in 1981 which hep HB still count it in,skujyte has a outdoors best 1.87 in 2011, and before 2009, her best in HJ stood 1.85m and often around 1.80m,after moving to SP,she jumped much better in HJ,in Athens SHE only jumped 1.76m,6435 Austra Skujyte LTU 12/08/1979 2 Athína 21/08/2004
( 14.03/0.1 - 1.76 - 16.40 - 24.82/-0.2 / 6.30/-0.4 - 49.58 - 2:15.92 )
haha,just as some of friends said 100mh and 200m did not open a gap,espicially in this hep,14.02s very poor hurdles can gain 974p,only 101p from 13.33s,24.82s 903p,100p away from 23.77s, a quite good time for hep,49.58m means 852p,44.40m has a 100 gap to 49.58m,39.20m has 200 gap to 49.58m, means 13.33s - 23.77s-39.20=14.03s-24.82s-49.58m.
just see 13.85s easily can gain 1000p,however, even if you can reach world champion level of 12.50s,only 200p to open a gap,comparing to 49.58/39.20 also 200p gap,for 200m,21.81s can only1201p,300p than 24.86s,equalling 41.80m /57.29m also 300p,1.66m/1.90m also 300p gap.

Sanderson's 64.64 is with the old javelin model, not the current model, when the then WR was 80.00. The furthest with the current model is Margaret Simpson's 56.36, with the current WR Spotakova's 72.28; a big difference. This is one of the reasons why the points system should have changed in 1999 when the current javelin model was introduced.
.

but the WR 71.88 in 1981 not 80m so Sandersons JT was proportionally better than you infer, what this meand for score analysis i have no idea

[26mi235]

Gabriella, when you work with that data, in addition to the range (of the top 10 or top X) it would be interesting to see the other statistical measures of the variation, given best by the standard deviation (probably).

[26mi235]

Several people have mentioned that it is not the level of the scoring but the gradient -- how many extra points for a given change in performance. However, since the performance metrics are different in each case, there is no direct way to compare the gradients, rather we have to compare relative to the variation normally seen in the events.

The events with more skill are generally going to have a broader performance range than those where semi-natural speed is paramount. That is what you see in terms of the exponents, the c values, with the throws having a broad range and the 100/200 much narrower in performance and hence with a higher value of the power, with the jumps in the middle.

Going to the issue of the scoring, it would not change any placings at all if 200 more points were assigned at every performance level in an event, so adding 200 points to the SP or the Jav. In fact, since the function is almost linear, moving the threshold (of zero points) to a lower value would also not have much effect if they did not change the scaling factor (a).

Given the gradients (which are not constant but where the power affects the curvature if the threshold is 'relatively high' (too hard to explain here) the optimization question for the athlete is: If I train in a certain manner I will be able to transform X amount of training into dP improvement in performance (P); where do I get the most bang-for-the-buck? So, it ends up being a comparison of the training effect gradient with the scoring gradient.

Empirical evidence would seem to indicate that for the Hept (women) training in the hurdles is most productive and the SP least productive. Of course, it is also complicated because of the interaction of training on the body with performance in other events. Here, the weight that follows from strength training for the SP and Jav is a negative for the HJ, LJ, and to a lesser extent the running events (for the men the 1500 gets hit hard). That is why even good shot putters do not look like SP specialists although they can and do look like LJ and 100h athletes (800 and HJ athletes are generally thinner, of course; but there is Tia...).

Note I have not looked at the Multis in the detail of some of our regular posters and will make some errors in my thinking here, but I was trying to bring in some analytical aspects of the scoring system so that people who know the events and add in the content. Feedback welcomed.

[Gabriella]

26mi235 you make some interesting points.

As you say, the thing about the SP & heptathletes is there's no definite correlation between an athlete that appears to be strong (and may well have a great bench press) and being a great putter. On face value you would think Eunice Barber and Hyleas Fountain would be good at the SP, but both struggle/d and we know Barber often threw just over 12m. Barber's team mate Collonville was smaller and lighter and nowhere near as conditioned, yet had similar SP results. It's that combination of pure strength, explosive strength and co-ordination that makes the SP more difficult than we think.
It would be interesting to see the women's weight training results compared to SP performances; the SP is still largely about the legs, if performed correctly, so I wonder whether the best putters have better squat bests or press/clean bests etc? Just curious.

One thing is certain; the event attracts women that are generally fast and good jumpers. As long as you're a competent thrower you're fine. But even if you're not, and you have an atrocious throwing event, you can still do well: Barber, who scored over 6800 pts, with 12m SP's, and Sotherton, who medalled at Worlds and Olympics, with awful JT's. However, it is much rarer to find women that score big with awful hurdles (14+) or LJ's (>6m) or 200's (outside 25 secs) So, while you may sneak medals as a poor hurdler, like Skujyte, you still have to be a good jumper as she is, and your poor hurdles will still score more than the best SPers and best JTers. But you wont score the big points unless you are good at 100h/200/LJ.

[Gabriella]

but the WR 71.88 in 1981 not 80m so Sandersons JT was proportionally better than you infer, what this meand for score analysis i have no idea

The reference was to show we can't count Sanderson's mark as a heptathlon JT best now, as the women use a different implement. I mentioned the WR's for each implement as evidence of the differences between then and now, rather than meaning the 80m was the WR when Tess threw it.

So, to score 1000 points in the JT now, you have to throw 57.18. Considering the heptathlon best with the current model is 56.36, no women are about to be gaining 1000 points in this event, whereas to get that many points in the hurdles they only need to run 13.85, which the majority of them can do.

When the heptathlon calculation formula was created in the 1980's, the javelin model was different. Hence we have someone like Turchinskaya throwing over 59m with the old model. The women aren't going to be throwing 59m with the current model, so the javelin formula should have at least changed in 1999, if not the overall method.

So, that was my point

[Flumpy]

If I remember correctly weren't the Jav points going to be changed when the new specification came in but then US kicked up a fuss as it meant JJK's WR would be made obsolete so they stayed the same, despite making no sense at all

[nianchengyu]

So, to score 1000 points in the JT now, you have to throw 57.18. Considering the heptathlon best with the current model is 56.36, no women are about to be gaining 1000 points in this event, whereas to get that many points in the hurdles they only need to run 13.85, which the majority of them can do.

When the heptathlon calculation formula was created in the 1980's, the javelin model was different. Hence we have someone like Turchinskaya throwing over 59m with the old model. The women aren't going to be throwing 59m with the current model, so the javelin formula should have at least changed in 1999, if not the overall method.
So, that was my point [/quote]

but you should the distance after 1999 very similar to 1990s when the model changed however WR still no change,in fact, after 1988 oly, the women throwing events flow a lot, it is may why hep not change the WR,HAHA,that is my view.

[26mi235]

The old Jav allowed some really long throws when everything 'worked right'. This is one reason to have a flat points/performance function. Now, however, the long throws are not there and the curvature of the function should be increased, but if it is pivoted around 1000 points it will be flat and then get steep in a range in which no one is throwing. As I stated before, if a linear function is just shifted up (i.e., every distance gets more points) that does not change the event at all and has no effect on anyone (except for FFF, where zero is now even worse, but a zero is disaster no matter what). Thus, it is not the point level that matters but the gradient of points across the athletes. That is what a poor hurdle hurts -- so many points are lost to other athletes.

[nianchengyu]

could anyone give me some link to 2009 and 2011 WC highlight which IAAF before did it, and also link to some famous combined event challenge meetings?thank you.

[Gumbo Gold]

Love the intensity, but we're still too early I think. Be prepared to gear up with numbers in late July, but keep staying up. The competition itself will provide the world's best athlete. God willing, they'll all be there and in good health.

Keep us updated, please.

[26mi235]

I programmed up the (w)Hept and Decathlon in a spreadsheet; just enter the marks and it scores the athlete. This must be available as a 'phone app', I would think. Still, if anyone wants a copy I will clean it up and e-mail it to you.

[nianchengyu]

I programmed up the (w)Hept and Decathlon in a spreadsheet; just enter the marks and it scores the athlete. This must be available as a 'phone app', I would think. Still, if anyone wants a copy I will clean it up and e-mail it to you.

I am interest in it,could you e-mail it to me, very appreciate to you.

[nianchengyu]

Notice African combined event championship already undergone,Simpson of GHAand the fast growing teanager Nafissatou Thiam og BEL,WHO showed 1.87m HJ in pen with 4322p NJR for not yet 18y girl.

[nianchengyu]

Simpson won with 6184p,however,iaaf has no reation for individual marks.

[nianchengyu]

Nafissatou Thiam of BEL who is not 18 yet,having scores 5907p,link:
[urlhttp://www.iaaf.org/Mini/WCE12/Results/ResultsByEventWCE.aspx?/Mini/WCE12/Results/ResultsByEventWCE.aspx?/eventcode=4916/sex=W/discCode=HEP/combCode=hash/roundCode=7/summary.html#det[/url]

[nianchengyu]

Seeing as you're such a fan of Schippers, any news on Dutch heptathlete Jolanda Keizer, nianchenkyu? She had that great 6370 from Beijing at 23 then won European indoors silver in 2009....then apparently injured herself and missed Berlin. She came back for Barcelona 2010 but was DQed in the first event. She went on to complete the HJ (1.74) and SP (14.97) but withdrew from the 200m. She then did a 5804 at Kladno in 2011. The only positive thing from the 2011 was her JT PB of 45.79.

Lately news she decided to quit her career mainly because of the achilles tendons ,link:
http://www.atletiekunie.nl/index.php?page=109&nieuwsitem=7750

[nevetsllim]

Jess made a nifty start to her outdoor season with a 45.66m throw in the javelin. That's her fourth best ever throw and her best ever start to the outdoor season (44.49m last year, 43.96m in 2010, 42.70m in 2009). She also said the conditions weren't great either.

[Gabriella]

The start lists are up for the Multistars multievents meeting in Italy this coming weekend. They look extremely packed lists so I'm not sure all will start - 37 women and 24 men

The biggest name on the men's side is world and Olympic medalist Dmitriy Karpov. The Kazakh athlete hasn't been over 8100 since 2008, but he showed some return to form indoors this season with his best heptathlon since 2008, which was on a par with his 2003 indoor season (where he went on to socre over 8300 outdoors) Nicklas Wiberg is also down to start but hasn't completed a decathlon since 2010.

On the women's side, Kelly Sotherton starts her first heptathlon since Talence 2008. It's a good meet to open with without the big names but she will still face Margaret Simpson. Other good names are 6268 performer Eliska Klucinova and Ida Marcussen (6226 at best) but neither have been in that form recently.

I expect Kelly will find some of the technical events difficult, but she won't be under the same pressure as she would if she started Gotzis. I predict a score of around 6180-6200:

13.60/ 1.77/ 13.8/ 23.8/ 6.2/ 35.00/ 2:11 (6192)

Start Lists from the IAAF site below:

http://www.iaaf.org/Mini/WCE12/Results/ ... t.html#det

[nianchengyu]

haha,tompson the talent of GBR was ingored by you?And i think sortherton is pretty hard to score 6200p around early this year.

[Gabriella]

He he, no, I didn't ignore Thompson, but, like many of the women on the start list, she's yet to score over 6000 points.

My prediction may well be too optimistic. She struggled with her jumps in her last heptathlon's, and I fully expect she'll struggle a little in both the HJ and LJ. I don't see a drastic loss of form in the SP and she should be near 14m. She should be ok in the 200 too (obviously not at her best but she should be sub 24) as well as the 800. I really have no idea how she'll do in the hurdles though. Her best is just under 13.2 so taking into acocunt her absence from the event, her age and how early this is in the season, I was thinking around 13.6.

What are you predictions nianchengyu?

[mump boy]

Isn't Louise Hazel competing as well ??

3 into 2 don't go, this could be the de facto UK trial !!

[nianchengyu]

He he, no, I didn't ignore Thompson, but, like many of the women on the start list, she's yet to score over 6000 points.

My prediction may well be too optimistic. She struggled with her jumps in her last heptathlon's, and I fully expect she'll struggle a little in both the HJ and LJ. I don't see a drastic loss of form in the SP and she should be near 14m. She should be ok in the 200 too (obviously not at her best but she should be sub 24) as well as the 800. I really have no idea how she'll do in the hurdles though. Her best is just under 13.2 so taking into acocunt her absence from the event, her age and how early this is in the season, I was thinking around 13.6.

What are you predictions nianchengyu?

It is very hard to predict eapecially for me,since you asked me, I just have fun for it.
sortherton :13.76-1.75-13.63-23.95-6.11-31.88-2.13.33 5996p
Thompson Katarina:13.66-1.84-11.55-23.92-6.42-37.23-2.16.33 6144p

[Gabriella]

Isn't Louise Hazel competing as well ??

3 into 2 don't go, this could be the de facto UK trial !!

No, at the moment Louise Hazel isn't down; it's Sotherton, Thompson, Phyllis Agbo, Kathy Marchant and Louise Wood.
Wouldn't Hazel be doing Gotzis anyway; she did it last year and was 15th in Daegu so would be invited?

nianchengyu, that's some very precise predictions I think we're both pretty close in our thoughts on what she'll do, especially the HJ, SP, 200, LJ and JT. I think she can/will run faster than 2:13 in the 800 for sure. The hurdles are a big for me though. But it goes to show, by just adjusting her scores very slightly she can score anywhere between the 5996 you predict and the 6192 I have down. I think she will probably score somewhere inbetween our marks any less and she has a mountain to climb for selection; anymore and she's in surprisingly good shape

[nianchengyu]

yeah, ,it is great to communicate with each other.And I always feel unfair for allarounder,their trainings are rather hard but only few chances to show in international circuit.Dientamond league already introduced, like some throwing events can show themselves more often and improve their condition, but for combined event no change at all,like eaton of USA,even not take part in them at all,

[mump boy]

Isn't Louise Hazel competing as well ??

3 into 2 don't go, this could be the de facto UK trial !!

No, at the moment Louise Hazel isn't down; it's Sotherton, Thompson, Phyllis Agbo, Kathy Marchant and Louise Wood.
Wouldn't Hazel be doing Gotzis anyway; she did it last year and was 15th in Daegu so would be invited?

nianchengyu, that's some very precise predictions I think we're both pretty close in our thoughts on what she'll do, especially the HJ, SP, 200, LJ and JT. I think she can/will run faster than 2:13 in the 800 for sure. The hurdles are a big for me though. But it goes to show, by just adjusting her scores very slightly she can score anywhere between the 5996 you predict and the 6192 I have down. I think she will probably score somewhere inbetween our marks any less and she has a mountain to climb for selection; anymore and she's in surprisingly good shape

She tweeted something the other day about next weekend so i just assumed

[Gabriella]

Jennifer Oeser is carrying a calf injury that cut short her recent training stint in Lazarote because she couldn't run. She's apparently having injections and physio twice a day. She wont start in her planned opener (Bernhausen this weekend) so is now in a battle to be fit for Gotzis. If she missed Gotzis she will target Ratingen.

[nianchengyu]

sad news for her, and i want to know oraginal what events will she plan to do ,thank you,

[Gabriella]

sad news for her, and i want to know oraginal what events will she plan to do ,thank you,

The Bernhausen meeting is the start of the German Tema Cup, so she was down to do the 150m and JT.

At the moment she may just start in Gotzis with no prior individual events/meetings

[nianchengyu]

Kelly Sotherton only ran 13.96s with -0.1 which won by Louise Wood pb 13.24s,Margaret Simpsondid not start.Katarina Johnson-Thompson ran 13.68s pb with -0.6m/s.karpov, solid start after 3events,link:
http://www.iaaf.org/Mini/WCE12/Results/ResultsByEventWCE.aspx?/Mini/WCE12/Results/ResultsByEventWCE.aspx?/eventcode=4910/sex=W/discCode=100H/combCode=HEP/roundCode=u/results.html

[Gabriella]

No update yet, but after a 1.72 HJ and just misssng 13m in the shot, Sotherton didn't start the 200m. She had a hip injury in February which affected her training hence the poor hurdles. I am hoping she's just a bit further behind where she thought she was, saw how well Johnson-Thompson was doing and decided against a direct head to head which looked like she was going to lose. She was heading for below 6000 so in some ways there was no point carrying on, she should go home, train and look for another meeting. However, if she has a niggle then that looks to be the end of London 2012 for her.

KJT is doing brilliantly well and looks set for a PB. If she can do below PB marks of 6.40, 35m and 2:20 she can get over 6000. If she can match her PB's (6.44, 37.88, 2:18.51) she can score 6121. If she can slightly beat her PBs (6.50, 39m, 2:16) she can go 6196. I am hoping she does a LJ PB but, as ever, it's the JT that could prove her undoing. She needs 6150 to qualify.