Olympic Trials Decathlon

[unclezadok]

I wonder what kind of score for Bryan Clay this week would indicate that he is on track to make the Olympic team. I would say 8200-8300 would be sufficient. I would look for 7900 from Arnold if he is to be at this best for the Trials.

[DoubleRBar]

Not just the score, but almost more important are injuries. In the decathlon, being injury free is a huge advantage. At this point, Ashton Eaton is injury free.

[unclezadok]

Yes, to be unable to complete one now would not be a good sign. And knock on wood as to Eaton.

[Dave]

8300 would say that Clay will be ready to be in the top 3 in Eugene.

[bruce3404]

Given that Morrison scored 8118 last June after competing in the Pac-10s and with an academic workload, I'm thinking it might take 8300 to make the team, though I have no idea what he's up to this year. He did improve over 300 points from 2010 to 2011 in the NCAA Championship meet, so an 8300-8400 performance wouldn't be out of the question. Should be a great battle between Clay and Morrison for the 3rd slot, assuming Eaton stays healthy and Hardee is reasonably ready to go.

[26mi235]

And there are others in the pipeline, but one cycle down. Cato (2nd at NCAA Hept) completed his first decathlon but had two fouls and a poor discus, 7 meters shorter than his only other competitive discus (earlier in the week). Put in his more normal SP and other marks from the Hept and he scores about 8000 already. Give him a bit more experience in the Jav and Discus and he could add 200 to that and be up to 8200 by next spring (but it is not beyond the pale that he could hit that this year if he can use his strength in the throws (and he has not had much opportunity to throw either the discus or the jav up here yet this year.

And Beach made big strides this year and if he gets his throws and jumps going right he will be in the 8000++ range, as well some of the other young guys.

[Dave]

My thought with 8300 is that if Clay can do that now, then he probably has at least another 100 points in him and it is highly unlikely that anyone other than Eaton and Hardee can beat 8400 pts. That would put him on the team. Of course, we don't know where Morrison is in terms of fitness. I don't think either Beach or Nixon are ready to step up to this level.

[gktrack]

What about Isaac Murphy's 8067 this March at the Texas Relays, that's gotta put him in the picture, right?

[Fortius19]

It appears from results page that Clay and Arnold DNF the 400 in today's day one at Drake.

http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/15700/livestats/Relays/12/index.htm?&&SPSID=71588&SPID=8142&DB_OEM_ID=15700

Bryan tweeted:

Not a horrible day of training at Drake Relays decathlon w/ @JakeArnold23. 100m-10.45, (7 step) LJ-7.13m, SP-15.15m, HJ-1.99

Was this just a training day? I thought he was going to do the full Deca.

[bruce3404]

It appears from results page that Clay and Arnold DNF the 400 in today's day one at Drake.

http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/15700/livestats/Relays/12/index.htm?&&SPSID=71588&SPID=8142&DB_OEM_ID=15700

Bryan tweeted:

Not a horrible day of training at Drake Relays decathlon w/ @JakeArnold23. 100m-10.45, (7 step) LJ-7.13m, SP-15.15m, HJ-1.99

Was this just a training day? I thought he was going to do the full Deca.

From the Des Moines Register:
Competition for the Drake Relays decathlon title became more of a mystery when reigning Olympic champion Bryan Clay withdrew from Wednesday’s final event.

Clay plans to be at Drake Stadium today to train through more events, but won’t have enough points to challenge.

“We really are coming out just to kind of get our legs underneath us,” Clay said. “We didn’t want to sacrifice a bunch of training weeks to get a full decathlon score in.

[DecFan]

So far today Clay ran 13.92 and had a 50.86 DT. In the 6 events in which he's competed, he's scored 5298; in his PR 8832 decathlon he scored 5522 in these same events. In that PR meet, he had a 48.41 400, 5.00 PV, 70.55 JT, and 4:50 1500. While I doubt that he'll ever run a 48.41 again, his scores in the other 3 events are all still achievable for him. So these results so far at Drake indicate Clay may well be in 8500+ shape already. Very promising.

Arnold, on the other hand, is more than 500 points shy of his score in these events in his 8253 PR. At this point, he doesn't look to be a contender for the third place on the team.

[Grasshopper]

Clay is now an Asics athlete, so I'm guessing he's competing at Drake mostly as an obligation for his new sponsor (Drake is an Asics sponsored meet).

His marks so far are very promising, I think. He's not necessarily in WR or PR shape, but definitely showing that he's maintained his ability enough to compete with Eaton and Hardee. He's mentioned practice lifetime-bests in several of his tweets in such things as his 300m time-trial and snatch, so I wouldn't count out any potential PR's this season.

[Grasshopper]

...and on another note, how awesome is it that Bryan is currently (after 7 events) in 2nd place at Drake, even though he DNF'd in teh 400m?

I wonder what place he could/will finish if he scores in the vault and javelin, but then foregoes the 1500?

[Fortius19]

That is pretty cool. Like long ago when some guys could win a Deca without running the 15.

So, there is no 'honest effort' rule in the Deca? You can just get in your blocks and then stand up to get a DNF so you can continue the multi, instead of a DNS and you're out?

I remember reading in T&FN awhile back an American athlete got a DQ in the HH for deliberately knocking down hurdles. I believe it was the Nationals +/- year 2000. I forget who, Joe? Ryan? Some short name.

It's seems odd (to me) that they can infer his intentions in the HH, but make an athlete play the game of starting an event that everyone knows he is not going to finish.

[gh]

The concept of "guest competitors" in the multis has a long tradition. Decathletes get so few chances for real competition that this allows them to dabble with their event in an overall sense without doing the whole thing.

I could see the records-ratifiers getting persnickety, however, should you get a hypothetical situation like Curtis Beach enters a meet as a "guest" (i.e., no intent ever to do all the events) and when the 1500 rolls around, his skills in that event find him acting as a rabbit for Ashton Eaton to PR and score a WR.

[unclezadok]

I think at some point Beach will be pacing Eaton to a WR, but not as a "guest." By the way, I notice that in his (probably under-wraps) ACC decathlon Beach ran the 400 in the mid-46s.

[DecFan]

To update my earlier post: Clay vaulted 4.90, then did not compete in the JT or 1500. For seven events, he scored 6178, compared to 6432 in those same events in his 8832 decathlon PR. So he averaged 36 pts below his PR decathlon scores in these 7 events; at that rate, he scores 8472. If he were to score exactly 36 points below his PR decathlon score in each of the other 3 events, he would need: 400 49.17 JT 68.20 1500 4:57. My guess: Right now he could throw the jav farther than that, but couldn't run the 400 that fast.

In any event, the bottom line: Clay is healthy and looking good.

[26mi235]

46.96 (PR is 46.90?) for Beach

[unclezadok]

To update my earlier post: Clay vaulted 4.90, then did not compete in the JT or 1500. For seven events, he scored 6178, compared to 6432 in those same events in his 8832 decathlon PR. So he averaged 36 pts below his PR decathlon scores in these 7 events; at that rate, he scores 8472. If he were to score exactly 36 points below his PR decathlon score in each of the other 3 events, he would need: 400 49.17 JT 68.20 1500 4:57. My guess: Right now he could throw the jav farther than that, but couldn't run the 400 that fast.

In any event, the bottom line: Clay is healthy and looking good.

I think I saw a JT of 229 for him recently. He probably skipped the 400m and JT here as the events most likely to cause injury (especially in cool weather, it in fact it is), and who wants to do the 1500m anyhow.

[DecFan]

I think I saw a JT of 229 for him recently. He probably skipped the 400m and JT here as the events most likely to cause injury (especially in cool weather, it in fact it is), and who wants to do the 1500m anyhow.

Yes, 229 1/69.82 on April 20.

[Grasshopper]

If he were to score exactly 36 points below his PR decathlon score in each of the other 3 events, he would need: 400 49.17 JT 68.20 1500 4:57. My guess: Right now he could throw the jav farther than that, but couldn't run the 400 that fast.

Clay's tweet from 3/27: "‎300m testing today and just ran 33.9 sec. Not bad considering previous PB was 34.3 from 2005. Now off to pole vault and discus." (2005 was his 400m PR of 47.78). I realize that a 300m time-trial doesn't necessarily equate to a fast 400m, but I think it shows that he's far from washed-up in the event.

[bruce3404]

I think at some point Beach will be pacing Eaton to a WR, but not as a "guest." By the way, I notice that in his (probably under-wraps) ACC decathlon Beach ran the 400 in the mid-46s.

Beach has already done so. Fayetteville, NCAA Indoor Championships, 2010. Not a decathlon, of course, but a multi-event nonetheless.

[dbirds]

Anyone want to project an Oly Trials score for Clay based on these (and his past history of course):

4/26/12 2:34 PM
Day 2 at Drake Relays deca,13.92-110h (+5.0w made things hard), DT-50.86m, vault 4.90 (again wind was a factor) Overall things went ok. #fb

4/25/12 4:57 PM
Not a horrible day of training at Drake Relays decathlon w/ @JakeArnold23. 100m-10.45, (7 step) LJ-7.13m, SP-15.15m, HJ-1.99. #fb

4/20/12 7:19 PM
SP(15m), LJ(7.17m), Jav(69.85m), and book signing at #BCinvite. Not the marks I wanted but after the last few days travel, I'll take it! #fb

[bruce3404]

Anyone want to project an Oly Trials score for Clay based on these (and his past history of course):

Tough call. If he's got the team made going into the 1500, there would be no reason to run it very hard. Based on what we saw this week, 8500 isn't out of the question. However, if Morrison and Arnold don't perform well, it might be that an 8300 will be enough. In fact, I'm not expecting Eaton or Hardee to approach PRs, since the main goal is making it to London intact and well-rested. My predictions for all three are as follows: Eaton 8600 (home field advantage), Hardee 8500, Clay 8350. Day 1 should involve some excellent marks by all three, but on day 2, I think we'll see some passes in the field events and less than stellar 1500s as the team sorts itself out.

[dbirds]

Sounds reasonable. If one of the big 3 gets hurt or (God forbid) fouls on an event - who would be the contenders for the 3 spot? Moss? Morrison? Beach? Arnold? Harlan?

[Grasshopper]

Sounds reasonable. If one of the big 3 gets hurt or (God forbid) fouls on an event - who would be the contenders for the 3 spot? Moss? Morrison? Beach? Arnold? Harlan?

Is Tom Pappas retired? Any news of him recently?

[dbirds]

I heard he retired. Shoot, he'd still prob be the 4th best decathlete in the US if he was still competiting.

[DecFan]

I don't think Pappas ever officially retired, but it's been a long while since he competed. He's presently an assistant at Kansas State. You would think that if he were going to compete at the Trials, he would have entered a few meets by now.

The following is completely speculation, not based on any inside information: dbirds is probably right, that Pappas at 35 with health and a little training could beat anyone in the US other than Eaton, Hardee, and Clay. But he can't beat those three if they're healthy, and competing only to come in 4th at the Trials is not worth it to him. However, if he thought he had a decent chance at a 4th Olympic team, he would do it. So he is training under the radar, watching results from the top 3, and getting prepared to jump in if one of them seems to falter.

[dbirds]

thanks for the clarification. A healthy Arnold v Pappas would be a 8300 pt battle in my opinion

[gh]

we talked to Pappas last month; he's not retired, but he won't be competing in the OT.

[dbirds]

A 35 year old decathlete skipping the OT but not retiring?? Makes no sense to me

[Grasshopper]

Big PR for Eaton in the javelin (iaaf site lists best as 57.23) with his 60.26/197-08 at Payton Jordan (Stanford) today. Backed it up with a 59.46, too.

3 Ashton Eaton Otc 60.26m 197-08
57.35m 60.26m 59.46m FOUL PASS PASS

[DecFan]

Big PR for Eaton in the javelin (iaaf site lists best as 57.23) with his 60.26/197-08 at Payton Jordan (Stanford) today. Backed it up with a 59.46, too.

3 Ashton Eaton Otc 60.26m 197-08
57.35m 60.26m 59.46m FOUL PASS PASS

PRs now sum to 9284. Hardee's sum to 9193, Clay's to 9350. For comparison, Sebrle's sum to 9328.

[Grasshopper]

Big PR for Eaton in the javelin (iaaf site lists best as 57.23) with his 60.26/197-08 at Payton Jordan (Stanford) today. Backed it up with a 59.46, too.

3 Ashton Eaton Otc 60.26m 197-08
57.35m 60.26m 59.46m FOUL PASS PASS

PRs now sum to 9284. Hardee's sum to 9193, Clay's to 9350. For comparison, Sebrle's sum to 9328.

And Dan O'brien's sum to 9572!

I think the small differential between Seberle's PR sum and actual deca-PR show what a good decathlete he was. He got the PR's when they counted.

[Fortius19]

Clay says the WR is still a goal of his. That would be more than amazing if he got it.