Felix: Sucessful Double?

[fasttrack85]

Are people seriously suggesting the Sanya is better placed to double than Allyson ? That after 3 rounds of the 400m Sanya can then run the 200 and beat Allyson ??

Sanya struggles with 3 rounds of 400m never mind adding another 4 rounds on the back of it and then still expect her to run the relay ?

On what basis could anyone even consider this scenario ? the far that she's run a fast, windy 100m early season is not enough to go on, especially when we haven't even seen Allyson run yet. OK so she didn't win 2 golds last year but let's not write her off yet

Im not sure who is implying Sanya can beat Allyson in the 200.

Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?


I STILL DONT SEE WHO IS IMPLYING THAT SANYA CAN BEAT ALLYSON IN THE 200?

THE NOT BETTING AGAINST HER WAS MOST LIKELY IN REFERENCE TO THE 400.
by guru » 02 Apr 2012 00:52

t_monk wrote:
Other than Jeter who can possibly beat Felix in the 200 from the US when she is in form?

From what we've seen so far this year(especially yesterday's 100), I sure as heck wouldn't bet against Richards-Ross.

[mump boy]

Are people seriously suggesting the Sanya is better placed to double than Allyson ? That after 3 rounds of the 400m Sanya can then run the 200 and beat Allyson ??

Sanya struggles with 3 rounds of 400m never mind adding another 4 rounds on the back of it and then still expect her to run the relay ?

On what basis could anyone even consider this scenario ? the far that she's run a fast, windy 100m early season is not enough to go on, especially when we haven't even seen Allyson run yet. OK so she didn't win 2 golds last year but let's not write her off yet

Im not sure who is implying Sanya can beat Allyson in the 200.

Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?


I STILL DONT SEE WHO IS IMPLYING THAT SANYA CAN BEAT ALLYSON IN THE 200?

THE NOT BETTING AGAINST HER WAS MOST LIKELY IN REFERENCE TO THE 400.
by guru » 02 Apr 2012 00:52

t_monk wrote:
Other than Jeter who can possibly beat Felix in the 200 from the US when she is in form?

From what we've seen so far this year(especially yesterday's 100), I sure as heck wouldn't bet against Richards-Ross.

that's not how i read it t_monk said "other than Jeter who can possibly beat Felix' and guru said 'i wouldn't bet against Richards Ross'

anyway it doesn't really matter

[t_monk]

I don't think Richards-Ross beats Felix on Felix's good day in the 200m.

The only time Richards-Ross is going to beat Felix in the 200 is after Felix attempts a double and Richards-Ross comes to the table well rested.

And the talk of Felix being beaten in the 200 is more in the context of it happening at the trials more than anything. While SRR can beat Felix if Felix is off her game or not rested enough, SRR beating Felix would NOT happen after SRR running 3 rounds of the 400. This could happen if SRR discards the 400 and focuses on the 200 while Felix attempts a double... I just don't see SRR doing that (although stranger things have happened).

[mump boy]

I don't think Richards-Ross beats Felix on Felix's good day in the 200m.

The only time Richards-Ross is going to beat Felix in the 200 is after Felix attempts a double and Richards-Ross comes to the table well rested.

And the talk of Felix being beaten in the 200 is more in the context of it happening at the trials more than anything. While SRR can beat Felix if Felix is off her game or not rested enough BUT SRR beating Felix would NOT happen after SRR running 3 rounds of the 400. This could happen if SRR discards the 400 and focuses on the 200 while Felix attempts a double... I just don't see SRR doing that (although stranger things have happened).

This ^^

[26mi235]

10.89w is saying that SRR might beat AF in the 200. The question of SRR in the rounds is fundamentally about the impact of her condition. If that end up not being a problem then people's ingrained assumption that SRR cannot do rounds should be questioned. 10.89 even with wind for a 400m specialist is astounding. Consider if Wariner ran a 9.80w last weekend , which would be comparable. We would suddenly be thinking: 1) he is definitely back; and 2) he might be a consideration in the 200 (especially if he had a much better history in the 200, like SRR has).

Remember that MJ's best 100 was only 7% faster than 10.89 and it was not run a week into spring without any speed work to speak of. For those 200 runners out there I would say: be afraid, be very afraid. I do not think it will happen, but AF and VCB could conceivably a bronze between them in the 200, as they have to worry about competition that is both faster than they are and with better speed endurance from an athlete that has great speed.

Finally, add one more to that list of sub-11 runners for the year.

[preston]

What an irrational argument some of you are making. The American record holder at 400m just ran 10.89 which converts to sub-11 with 1.0 wind and it's being dismissed? If Jeter or Hooker or any other woman who is slated to participate in the USOT 100m had run that exact time posters would be crowing about a message being sent (even though a few of us would have noted...it's TEXAS...), but Sanya does it and it's nothing?

Anyway, I've never seen much difference between Sanya and Allyson. I think on they're best days that they both are sub-10.90/sub-21.80/sub-48.50. Its a coin flip to see who will win if both are confident and at their best.

[jazzcyclist]

Anyway, I've never seen much difference between Sanya and Allyson. I think on they're best days that they both are sub-10.90/sub-21.80/sub-48.50. Its a coin flip to see who will win if both are confident and at their best.

Not so fast my friend. Allyson has yet to do anything to indicate that she has the strength/endurance potential required to run sub-48.5.

[t_monk]

People are aware that SRR is probably still running off her World Indoors form right? This is a woman that just about a month ago won the Indoor World Championships in the 400. Lets not fool ourselves into thinking that SRR is JUST coming out of training. She is probably ahead of where she is supposed to be regarding training and definitely ahead in terms of training of everyone else who are to be her main competitors! At this point one should be more concerned that she is running too fast too soon than her seriously challenging Felix or VCB in the deuce.

Also we all know that SRR is fast and very fast when she is at or near peak form so this should not be a revelation to anyone. I think she is still riding off of that Worlds Indoor form which might end up not being such a good idea seeing that it's not easy to maintain such form for extended periods >_>

[Flumpy]

Anyway, I've never seen much difference between Sanya and Allyson. I think on they're best days that they both are sub-10.90/sub-21.80/sub-48.50. Its a coin flip to see who will win if both are confident and at their best.

HA!!!

So we'll have to assume their best days are still to come

[preston]

Anyway, I've never seen much difference between Sanya and Allyson. I think on they're best days that they both are sub-10.90/sub-21.80/sub-48.50. Its a coin flip to see who will win if both are confident and at their best.

Not so fast my friend. Allyson has yet to do anything to indicate that she has the strength/endurance potential required to run sub-48.5.

jazz, you're kind of right, but be honest, are you not more surprised that she hasn't run faster already? I mean everything about Felix says that she SHOULD have run faster than she has, but she hasn't. I will let guru tell you why he thinks she hasn't (I'll leave that out of my post), but I DO feel that she has the ability. Also, Cathy Freeman NEVER showed anything remotely looking like sub-48.70 before she ran it in '96. And for her career she only ran under 49.20 twice and both were in Olympic Finals. Just comparing Felix and her limited appearances at 400m to pre-Atlanta Freeman...Felix looks better. Now, when you compare them at 100/200 Felix looks even better. Add in her relay splits and yes she's right there. Like I said originally, I don't see much difference in the two athletes, they just happen to be concentrating on different events.

HA!!!

So we'll have to assume their best days are still to come

What's wrong with that? Why would their best days NOT be ahead of them?

[ATK]

People are aware that SRR is probably still running off her World Indoors form right? This is a woman that just about a month ago won the Indoor World Championships in the 400. Lets not fool ourselves into thinking that SRR is JUST coming out of training. She is probably ahead of where she is supposed to be regarding training and definitely ahead in terms of training of everyone else who are to be her main competitors! At this point one should be more concerned that she is running too fast too soon than her seriously challenging Felix or VCB in the deuce.

Also we all know that SRR is fast and very fast when she is at or near peak form so this should not be a revelation to anyone. I think she is still riding off of that Worlds Indoor form which might end up not being such a good idea seeing that it's not easy to maintain such form for extended periods >_>

She is not in peak form. She stated that she did not alter her training to peak indoors. She is going for a slight peak at USA's and then London.

Also in regards to your previous statement t_monk, look back to 2007, where Sanya came 4th in the 400 at trials, then ran the 200m and came second to Felix, by a small margin. 6 rounds in 4 days straight, and am I correct in saying she was battling Behçet's during those trials?

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

Felix really needs to be at the top of her game if she is looking to double and medal in both at the Olympics. And even though its very unlikely, I wouldn't bet against Felix coming in 3rd or 4th at trials after a double.

[26mi235]

Not so fast my friend. Allyson has yet to do anything to indicate that she has the strength/endurance potential required to run sub-48.5.

48.0 is NOT nothing; it is not as much as, say running 49.0, but it is by far a significant signal. To call a 48.0 nothing is way too far of a discount for a closely related event. If Bolt ran 42.5r would you say that he has done nothing to indicate that he could do a great 400?

[t_monk]

People are aware that SRR is probably still running off her World Indoors form right? This is a woman that just about a month ago won the Indoor World Championships in the 400. Lets not fool ourselves into thinking that SRR is JUST coming out of training. She is probably ahead of where she is supposed to be regarding training and definitely ahead in terms of training of everyone else who are to be her main competitors! At this point one should be more concerned that she is running too fast too soon than her seriously challenging Felix or VCB in the deuce.

Also we all know that SRR is fast and very fast when she is at or near peak form so this should not be a revelation to anyone. I think she is still riding off of that Worlds Indoor form which might end up not being such a good idea seeing that it's not easy to maintain such form for extended periods >_>

She is not in peak form. She stated that she did not alter her training to peak indoors. She is going for a slight peak at USA's and then London.

Also in regards to your previous statement t_monk, look back to 2007, where Sanya came 4th in the 400 at trials, then ran the 200m and came second to Felix, by a small margin. 6 rounds in 4 days straight, and am I correct in saying she was battling Behçet's during those trials?

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

Felix really needs to be at the top of her game if she is looking to double and medal in both at the Olympics. And even though its very unlikely, I wouldn't bet against Felix coming in 3rd or 4th at trials after a double.

I find it hard to believe that Sanya didn't alter her training at all to run indoors. You don't roll out of bed and run 50.7x indoors. Just watching the progression of her times its clear that she did some semblance of peaking for Indoors. A 50.7x indoor is probably equivalent to a sub-50... Heck a 50.7x is better than what she did most of last year outdoors! She has ran a near PB in the 100m (corrected for time) and she isn't near peak? An 11.05... in March... coming off base alone and very little speed work... I mean at this rate she should ditch the 400 and focus on the 100/200, by Olympics she could drop anywhere between a 10.7 or a 10.6 in the 100 and a sub-22 (taking into consideration her 400 speed) in the deuce. I'm sure re her Behçet's it would be a better option.

Her time in Indianapolis for 2nd was 22.43 and this was the season that she ran her fastest 100m time ever >_<. That same time wouldn't make top 5 last year.

I'm not saying Felix is unbeatable but just as how Felix has yet to show 48.x speed in the open 400, SRR hasn't shown the 21.xx speed that Felix has on multiple occasions. Heck SRR hasn't even ran consistent 22.1x and she has never ran 22.0x ever! Felix is undoubtedly one of the best 200 runners of all time.

I like SRR, but I just don't buy that she is 1) not near peak 2) can beat Felix in the deuce were both her and Felix were to double.

P.S. Her 22.16 PR in the deuce came in her best season to date (2006) where she ran 48.70 which shows that 48.xx strength does not equate to 21.xx speed which would be needed to beat Allyson at the trials IMHO.

[preston]

Felix is undoubtedly one of the best 200 runners of all time.

I think "arguably" fits better than "undoubtedly"; there is a good case where she doesn't make the top-10.

[ATK]

I find it hard to believe that Sanya didn't alter her training at all to run indoors. You don't roll out of bed and run 50.7x indoors. Just watching the progression of her times its clear that she did some semblance of peaking for Indoors. A 50.7x indoor is probably equivalent to a sub-50... Heck a 50.7x is better than what she did most of last year outdoors! She has ran a near PB in the 100m (corrected for time) and she isn't near peak? An 11.05... in March... coming off base alone and very little speed work... I mean at this rate she should ditch the 400 and focus on the 100/200, by Olympics she could drop anywhere between a 10.7 or a 10.6 in the 100 and a sub-22 (taking into consideration her 400 speed) in the deuce. I'm sure re her Behçet's it would be a better option.

I can somewhat agree with you. It is hard to believe that she really hasnt altered her training, but I dont see why its not possible for her to just be starting what could be the best season of her life.

Her time in Indianapolis for 2nd was 22.43 and this was the season that she ran her fastest 100m time ever >_<. That same time wouldn't make top 5 last year.

Same season that Felix ran her 200m PR....not really relevant.
Point is after a complete 4-2 double she was only .1 behind a fresh Felix.

[26mi235]

t_monk:

If she is back to being a 48.7 runner, then 49.9 is not particularly peaking. You are assuming that this is the 2010/2011 SRR rather than where the 48.70 SRR would be without being sidetracked. If so, this may be the early season of the 48.4 SRR. If so, and if AF has another 48.0r in her, then the relay is history as long as they do not botch a hand-off.

[ChuiTai]

Who and when was the last time any athlete, male or female, won either a national and/or world equivalent double of 400/200 (or vise versa) with less than 24 hours of recovery time between each event and its' related segments (h/s/f)?

[Gabriella]

I wasn't aware of SRR's 10.89w when I wrote my last post. I did mention on my previous one that she did have a good acceleration in Istanbul and I guess this 10.89w confirms that. It's an excellent performance and I agree with preston's point that maybe some are dismissing it. (I don't agree that the are both sub 10.90/sub 21.80/sub 48.50 mind you, and I don't believe both women have their best years ahead of them though)

The last time SRR ran a comparable time, her 10.97 PB from 2007, she also ran 22.31 and 49.27. In her 48.70 season and 48.83 season she ran 22.17 PB and 22.29 over 200m but no apparent 100's but she must have been fast. So, it must be safe to assume that on 10.89w form she is looking at a very good 400m time, and for her to be able to run 49.2 or faster she needs to be near 11 secs form. The only would be unless she has been focussing more on speedwork than usual, which could be the case as she looked fast in Istanbul over the first lap but 'only' ran high 50's. So, maybe her speed is spot on now but she needs to work more on her speed endurance?

Either way, I am much more impressed with 10.89w than her Istanbul win. It would be good to see her fully focus on 100/200 for a complete season with that aim, rather than the 200m by default as in 2007. Who knows, perhaps SRR true event should have been the 200m.

It will be interesting to see how this fast early season 100m time translates into 400m form at peak season. There's a long way to go till London. But, if she carries on and get's to 49.2 form or faster, she has to be a favourite for gold. If she's in mid 49 form I dont see her having the mental strength and grit to fight and get her race right when neck and neck against the other women of comparable form. Other women excel when their competitors are at a similar level whereas SRR seems to need that buffer to feel comfortable and run her correct race.

A general point; some women in the past have spread themselves too thinly over all 3 sprint events. The general rule is you cannot be the best at all three, although some women have of course been ranked top ten in all three in previous years. Both Felix and SRR need to be careful here and make the right event decision.

[preston]

It's an excellent performance and I agree with preston's point that maybe some are dismissing it. (I don't agree that the are both sub 10.90/sub 21.80/sub 48.50 mind you, and I don't believe both women have their best years ahead of them though)

...A general point; some women in the past have spread themselves too thinly over all 3 sprint events. The general rule is you cannot be the best at all three, although some women have of course been ranked top ten in all three in previous years. Both Felix and SRR need to be careful here and make the right event decision.

Gabs, I think you presented a more sober estimation of what I was trying to say: both of these women are capable, if they concentrated on a single event, of those times but it is unlikely that they could be equally good at all three at the same time.

[26mi235]

It appears that she his not focusing on speedwork and that this is off of general training, as were her indoor 50.x races. 10.89, even with wind, is very fast for anyone including Jamaicans who tend to be earlier due to location.

[NotSoOrdinary]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

[ATK]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

Sorry your actually wrong

Carmelita was heavy in training for the double when she first beat Allyson
The second time was after the 100 rounds, 100 final and 200 rounds.
The third time was right after worlds.

So lets not act like Carmelita is some awful 200m runner. Shes awesome.

[Speedster]

I love VCB but had Jeter relaxed in the 200m straight rather than pressed, she might have done the double. Another year of training and racing the 200m, Jeter is going to improve.

[fasttrack85]

Jeter is doing well for someone with limited 200 experience, I give her that. However 2011 was a very weak year for Veronica and especially for Felix so it made her look that much better. I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

[jamal00005]

I love VCB but had Jeter relaxed in the 200m straight rather than pressed, she might have done the double. Another year of training and racing the 200m, Jeter is going to improve.

Seriously , Jeter would have not beaten Campbell brown had she relax , because she was already tired by 150 and would had still loss the race had she been 1 or 2 metres ahead

[jamal00005]

Well being in an Olympic year i expect the winners of the 100m and 200m to be running 10.7 and 21.8 respectively so in my opinion the women who approach those times will most likely be the ones to carry home the medals

[t_monk]

Jeter is doing well for someone with limited 200 experience, I give her that. However 2011 was a very weak year for Veronica and especially for Felix so it made her look that much better. I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

This.

[26mi235]

And why is it that someone that has run several 10.6s (superior to VCB or what VCB's lifetime PR is likely to be), and who just started running the 200 and improved a BUNCH, placing second at WCs despite not having the background of either doubling or going that distance, going to suddenly stall our a tenth of a second slower than VCB could muster under the same circumstances?

Last April, what likelihood would you have attached to Jeter winning a medal; did it even occur to you (we had people claiming she would barely medal in the 100).

[t_monk]

And why is it that someone that has run several 10.6s (superior to VCB or what VCB's lifetime PR is likely to be), and who just started running the 200 and improved a BUNCH, placing second at WCs despite not having the background of either doubling or going that distance, going to suddenly stall our a tenth of a second slower than VCB could muster under the same circumstances?

Last April, what likelihood would you have attached to Jeter winning a medal; did it even occur to you (we had people claiming she would barely medal in the 100).

Although this is her first time doubling in a majors. Jeter isn't JUST running the 200. She had a 22.47/-0.6w PB from 2008. This was her first time running it to gain a medal in a majors and the first time actually doubling, but she has been running 200 for quite some time now.

Now as for her stalling, I don't think she will, I just don't think that she will automatically be sub-22 or even 22.0x which will be required for a gold medal (or I hope it will be that fast, a 22.2x/22.1x gold medal run at the Olympics would be underwhelming IMHO). Last season she ran the 200 ALOT and was in 10.7x shape at the very least and the best she did was 22.20. And as I stated above, she is not JUST running the 200 so with the number of times she ran the event it's fair enough to think that she could have dropped a monster time at least once last season in the deuce taking into consideration she isn't a newb at the event by a long shot.

SB of Jeter's 200 since 2007

2011 22.20 -0.4 Monaco 22/07/2011
2010 22.54 1.0 Oslo (Bislett) 04/06/2010
2009 22.59 0.0 Los Angeles, CA 11/04/2009
2008 22.47 -0.6 Carson, CA 18/05/2008
2007 22.82 0.1 Los Angeles, CA 12/05/2007

Taking her SB into consideration, If I knew the winning time was going to be 22.2x, that Felix would have been doubling and that the likes of KS, Myers, Lee, DFM and SS would be far from their best.... I would have ranked her chances pretty good!

P.S. that 22.37 was the slowest silver medal performance in a majors since 2003.

[26mi235]

t_monk, as is typical, you bring to the table a well-reasoned and well-supported argument. I think it implicitly makes the case for her most likely outcome being Bronze in the 200 if AF does not double behind AF/VCB or VCB/AF (tossup if AF does not double and VCB does, VCB the favorite if AF doubles and Jeter maybe a slight favorite for Silver if AF doubles).

The wildcard not included in this assessment is represented by a 10.89/w in March...

The was a 0.4+ improvement (from last year, and from every other year except the last Olympic year [22.20/-0.4 ~22.18; 22.54/1.0 ~22.60]). Furthermore, in 2011 she had three big races - The Trials where she had to Q, the WC Silver, and the season Finale win: her record was almost perfect, only losing the Gold to VCB and beating the co-favorite for Silver. The record is better than the marks. I think that 22.0 is reasonable (not a given, however); I think much below that would be a surprise; but even half as big a surprise as last season could possibly give her Gold (going from no expectation at all to speak of to Silver and the Finale). Of course, it is not yet Easter, so we get to see a lot more data. It is good that the top women go head-to-head more than the men so we do get more data, and VCB/SAFP/CJ... are to be commended for that. They all seemingly have their heads screwed on right and know that winning earlier races is important but not either a reason to be over-confident or to worry overmuch [SAFP, especially, seems to do that best, and good for her].

[guru]

I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

Well Felix hasn't broken 22 since 2009, and hasn't changed coaches. So I'm not sure I share your confidence.

[guru]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

Sorry your actually wrong

Carmelita was heavy in training for the double when she first beat Allyson
The second time was after the 100 rounds, 100 final and 200 rounds.
The third time was right after worlds.

So lets not act like Carmelita is some awful 200m runner. Shes awesome.

Well said ATK.

Funny how some get banned around here for ad hominem attacks, while others receive nary a glance

[fasttrack85]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyones leg. I feel she is going to do the 200 only and is keeping her competitors in limbo. It would be maniacal to really do anything else to me.

[Speedster]

Smart thing to do is to weigh up the choices closer to the Trials and then go from there, a date is marked in the diary to make that kind of decision and her training is probably geared to that. The curse of having such talent that gives you options!

My hope is just for the 200m so she can push VCB all the way in a battle royale down the home straight, rather than VCB dominate like she did in 2008. If VCB threepeats I want it to be by 0.01!

[26mi235]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyone's leg.

No, she is a professional athlete with more medals, including gold, than 99.9% of her peers. When you get to that level in your profession you might think that people would take you seriously. At her level, in Physics she would have a Nobel Prize, in baseball she would be making $15M/year, she would have won multiple Oscars, ....