vip wrote:Nobody ever said Spearmon wasn't a great 200 meter sprinter, of course he is. His results speak for themselves. So does his curve. And his straight. People love to read into observations and take out what they want. But I guess that's what forums are for.
Correct! Forums are for prognosticators ... and dilettantes
Fortius19 wrote:Good for Wally! Would love to see him PR this year, AND medal in London.
Of course, I'd like to see Bolt, Blake and Gay medal in the 200 also, so I don't know how that's going to work.
Well, I imagine that if some of the posters on this messageboard had their way the IOC would create a new platinum medal just for Bolt, so maybe there would be 4 medals up for grabs.
I watched the race again, from several angles and Jeremy Wariner closed really well after running a pretty poor first curve. It was like vintage Wariner.
JumboElliott wrote:I watched the race again, from several angles and Jeremy Wariner closed really well after running a pretty poor first curve. It was like vintage Wariner.
Exactly what I thought as well. JW's coming along nicely this season.
Spearmon "can't run a curve" and gets blasted, yet still Blake runs a curve like shit and he's a god? yall some damn idiots. No wonder this message board isn't what it use to be.
JumboElliott wrote:I watched the race again, from several angles and Jeremy Wariner closed really well after running a pretty poor first curve. It was like vintage Wariner.
JumboElliott wrote:I watched the race again, from several angles and Jeremy Wariner closed really well after running a pretty poor first curve. It was like vintage Wariner.
JumboElliott wrote:I watched the race again, from several angles and Jeremy Wariner closed really well after running a pretty poor first curve. It was like vintage Wariner.
where can we find video of the race?
Youtube...search for UTA 200m
or search on Speamon's youtube channel - wallacespearmon's channel he also has Doc's 100m
Olympic hysteria building up nicely by the predictors; the chances of 19.95 in the 200m not medalling are completely remote. A typical August evening in London is more than likely going to be very cool, and there is a bloody good chance of the 200m taking place on a windy, damp evening .
72 wrote:...the chances of 19.95 in the 200m not medalling are completely remote. A typical August evening in London is more than likely going to be very cool, and there is a bloody good chance of the 200m taking place on a windy, damp evening .
Regardless of weather, as long as there is not a headwind, 19.95 won't medal. Pandora's box has been opened when it comes to sub-20 and there are just too many athletes who can run that now; it's becoming like the 4 minute mile only less prestigious.
In 2011 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Daegu was 19.95 In 2010 7 men ran under 20 In 2009 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Berlin was 19.89; 5th place was 19.98 In 2008 5 men ran under 20 "officially", but when accounting for the 2 DQ's; 4th place was 19.96
Now, factor in Bolt, Blake, Dix, Spearmon, Lemaitre, Ndure, Edwards, Ashmeade, and possibly Gay (yes, I know that's 9) and I can see sub-20 from lane 1.
72 wrote:...the chances of 19.95 in the 200m not medalling are completely remote. A typical August evening in London is more than likely going to be very cool, and there is a bloody good chance of the 200m taking place on a windy, damp evening .
Regardless of weather, as long as there is not a headwind, 19.95 won't medal. Pandora's box has been opened when it comes to sub-20 and there are just too many athletes who can run that now; it's becoming like the 4 minute mile only less prestigious.
In 2011 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Daegu was 19.95 In 2010 7 men ran under 20 In 2009 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Berlin was 19.89; 5th place was 19.98 In 2008 5 men ran under 20 "officially", but when accounting for the 2 DQ's; 4th place was 19.96
Now, factor in Bolt, Blake, Dix, Spearmon, Lemaitre, Ndure, Edwards, Ashmeade, and possibly Gay (yes, I know that's 9) and I can see sub-20 from lane 1.
Usain Bolt is the only person in the world who could sub-20 from lane one, and he's not going to be running from lane one if he's healthy. If he's not healthy, then he's not going to be running that fast.
JumboElliott wrote:Usain Bolt is the only person in the world who could sub-20 from lane one, and he's not going to be running from lane one if he's healthy. If he's not healthy, then he's not going to be running that fast.
Blake ran is blazing 200 from the outer lanes of a very wide track layout. It was awkward in the curve and it is not clear that he would ever recover enough to blaze the straight. I guess I want to see one more from him to be sure.
Note that Kock 47.60 was from Lane 2 and back then Lane 2 might have been tighter, but I do not know the Canberra track.
72 wrote:...the chances of 19.95 in the 200m not medalling are completely remote. A typical August evening in London is more than likely going to be very cool, and there is a bloody good chance of the 200m taking place on a windy, damp evening .
Regardless of weather, as long as there is not a headwind, 19.95 won't medal. Pandora's box has been opened when it comes to sub-20 and there are just too many athletes who can run that now; it's becoming like the 4 minute mile only less prestigious.
In 2011 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Daegu was 19.95 In 2010 7 men ran under 20 In 2009 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Berlin was 19.89; 5th place was 19.98 In 2008 5 men ran under 20 "officially", but when accounting for the 2 DQ's; 4th place was 19.96
Now, factor in Bolt, Blake, Dix, Spearmon, Lemaitre, Ndure, Edwards, Ashmeade, and possibly Gay (yes, I know that's 9) and I can see sub-20 from lane 1.
Usain Bolt is the only person in the world who could sub-20 from lane one...
That's not correct. I will leave it to gh to produce a list of fastest times ever from lane 1 but I look specifically to the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. Mike Bates ran 20.22 to win his qf; 20.39 for 2nd behind Frank Fredericks (20.14) in his sf; and ran 20.38 from lane 1 to win the bronze medal! The winning time in the final was 20.01 for Mike Marsh and 2nd was 20.14 for Fredericks. What it shows is that Bates, who wasn't NEARLY the 200m runner of the caliber present today (nor was sub-20 run as often), ran just as well from lane 1 as he had from the more "preferable" lanes. (note: what's mind-boggling is that Bates finished second in the 2nd semi and still got lane one)
At the WC in 2005 the first athlete off the turn was an 18 year old running in Lane 1 who would suffer an unfortunate injury; the race was won by Justin Gatlin in 20.04 (-0.5).
Also, the reason why it is more likely that a very talented sprinter, or one who may be arguably more talented than Mr. Bates, will end up in lane 1 is because of the new lane draw protocol and how it works for 3 heat semifinals. The 3 heat winners and the fastest 2nd placer will get 3-4-5-6 and the 2 remaining second placers will get 7 or 8. The 2 fastest of the three 3rd placers will be eligible for only 1 or 2. (this is one of those RARE instances where a 2nd place finish may be best for lane choice because you get a chance at the wider lanes in 7 or 8, something that the first place finishers have no claim to).
So, if Bates proved that there isn't an appreciable drop off by running in lane 1 then other athletes may be able to do the same thing (rant alert: the next time that an athlete DNS for an event because they get lane 1 they should be removed from the village and sent home. Lane 1 is NOT lane 1 at VILLANOVA, Jumbo; Lane 1 on an Olympic track is more than gentle enough for a fast time)
So, imo, you're incorrect: Bolt isn't the only one who has the ability to run sub-20 from lane 1.
72 wrote:...the chances of 19.95 in the 200m not medalling are completely remote. A typical August evening in London is more than likely going to be very cool, and there is a bloody good chance of the 200m taking place on a windy, damp evening .
Regardless of weather, as long as there is not a headwind, 19.95 won't medal. Pandora's box has been opened when it comes to sub-20 and there are just too many athletes who can run that now; it's becoming like the 4 minute mile only less prestigious.
In 2011 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Daegu was 19.95 In 2010 7 men ran under 20 In 2009 6 men ran under 20 and 4th place in Berlin was 19.89; 5th place was 19.98 In 2008 5 men ran under 20 "officially", but when accounting for the 2 DQ's; 4th place was 19.96
Now, factor in Bolt, Blake, Dix, Spearmon, Lemaitre, Ndure, Edwards, Ashmeade, and possibly Gay (yes, I know that's 9) and I can see sub-20 from lane 1.
Usain Bolt is the only person in the world who could sub-20 from lane one...
That's not correct. I will leave it to gh to produce a list of fastest times ever from lane 1 but I look specifically to the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. Mike Bates ran 20.22 to win his qf; 20.39 for 2nd behind Frank Fredericks (20.14) in his sf; and ran 20.38 from lane 1 to win the bronze medal! The winning time in the final was 20.01 for Mike Marsh and 2nd was 20.14 for Fredericks. What it shows is that Bates, who wasn't NEARLY the 200m runner of the caliber present today (nor was sub-20 run as often), ran just as well from lane 1 as he had from the more "preferable" lanes. (note: what's mind-boggling is that Bates finished second in the 2nd semi and still got lane one)
At the WC in 2005 the first athlete off the turn was an 18 year old running in Lane 1 who would suffer an unfortunate injury; the race was won by Justin Gatlin in 20.04 (-0.5).
Also, the reason why it is more likely that a very talented sprinter, or one who may be arguably more talented than Mr. Bates, will end up in lane 1 is because of the new lane draw protocol and how it works for 3 heat semifinals. The 3 heat winners and the fastest 2nd placer will get 3-4-5-6 and the 2 remaining second placers will get 7 or 8. The 2 fastest of the three 3rd placers will be eligible for only 1 or 2. (this is one of those RARE instances where a 2nd place finish may be best for lane choice because you get a chance at the wider lanes in 7 or 8, something that the first place finishers have no claim to).
So, if Bates proved that there isn't an appreciable drop off by running in lane 1 then other athletes may be able to do the same thing (rant alert: the next time that an athlete DNS for an event because they get lane 1 they should be removed from the village and sent home. Lane 1 is NOT lane 1 at VILLANOVA, Jumbo; Lane 1 on an Olympic track is more than gentle enough for a fast time)
So, imo, you're incorrect: Bolt isn't the only one who has the ability to run sub-20 from lane 1.
I think that if Frankie Fredricks could run sub-20 on an indoor track then it's safe to assume he could've run sub-20 from lane 1.
preston wrote:... I will leave it to gh to produce a list of fastest times ever from lane 1 but I look specifically to the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. Mike Bates ran 20.22 to win his qf; 20.39 for 2nd behind Frank Fredericks (20.14) in his sf; and ran 20.38 from lane 1 to win the bronze medal! The winning time in the final was 20.01 for Mike Marsh and 2nd was 20.14 for Fredericks. What it shows is that Bates, who wasn't NEARLY the 200m runner of the caliber present today (nor was sub-20 run as often), ran just as well from lane 1 as he had from the more "preferable" lanes.....
From where I sit, all it shows is that we know that Bates had a very small body of work—particularly at the international level—to compare his Barcelona run with. If Tilastopaja is right (and I have little doubt it is), he had broken 20.50 only 4 times before Barcelona (in his whole career that is). And he only ran 5 races after Barcelona and then he was off to the NFL.
The indoor tracks are tighter, but in Lane 6 that are not that bad, and you get the banking. You get another advantage that would make the race not acceptable for record purposes in a road race -- you run downhill. This is especially the case on some tracks where there is very high banking (not sure what the track he ran that one is like).
The Fredericks indoor sub-20 came from lane 6 at Liévin, a track which at the time was said to be "downhill all the way around" so prone was it to coughing up incredible 200s from the outer lane.
I believe Jon did some stats a couple of years back that showed that Fayetteville for many people is faster indoors than out (or maybe that was in the 400?). The downhill component is definitely not to be scoffed at.
preston wrote:... I will leave it to gh to produce a list of fastest times ever from lane 1 but I look specifically to the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona. Mike Bates ran 20.22 to win his qf; 20.39 for 2nd behind Frank Fredericks (20.14) in his sf; and ran 20.38 from lane 1 to win the bronze medal! The winning time in the final was 20.01 for Mike Marsh and 2nd was 20.14 for Fredericks. What it shows is that Bates, who wasn't NEARLY the 200m runner of the caliber present today (nor was sub-20 run as often), ran just as well from lane 1 as he had from the more "preferable" lanes.....
From where I sit, all it shows is that we know that Bates had a very small body of work—particularly at the international level—to compare his Barcelona run with. If Tilastopaja is right (and I have little doubt it is), he had broken 20.50 only 4 times before Barcelona (in his whole career that is). And he only ran 5 races after Barcelona and then he was off to the NFL.
I completely agree that his body of work was small due to football commitments at Arizona and the NFL -and a 20.01 PB (after the Olympics) w/-1.0 wind is nothing to scoff at- but I think the numbers show that he was able to run as well in lane 1 as he ever had in other more "preferred" lanes (of course, this could be bias from such a small sample but I need something to prop up my argument...work with me. ). Remember, no one ran a PB in the final and Marsh was nearly .3 adrift of his semi "shutdown" and Fredericks was about half of that off of his then PB and MM/FF were in the lanes that were considered advantageous. I think it's fair to say that Bates was not hindered by his lane 1 assignment and I think that without counting current athletes N'dure, Crawford, X. Carter, Gatlin, Obikwelu or Martina that there are 7 athletes with PB's under 19.90 that COULD run sub-20 from lane 1: Bolt, Blake, Dix, Gay, Spearmon, Edwards, and Lemaitre.
(a healthy "18 y/o" wouldn't have been running in lane 1 to begin with, but this one seems to have run a pretty decent turn when you consider the temperature and rain in Helsinki https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlW8Djsms3Q)
Bates was much closer to Marsh and Fredericks in the Zurich race, presumably because he had a better lane.
Getting back to Spearmon, I see he's in a training group with Darvis Patton and Tyrone Edgar, the coach had some success with Kim Collins in 2003. Some are speculating whether Spearmon might be a 100m threat at US trials. That may be, but remember Patton reached the final in Beijing and Berlin and came last both times.
). Remember, no one ran a PB in the final and Marsh was nearly .3 adrift of his semi "shutdown" and Fredericks was about half of that off of his then PB and MM/FF were in the lanes that were considered advantageous. I think it's fair to say that Bates was not hindered by his lane 1 assignment and I think that without counting current athletes N'dure, Crawford, X. Carter, Gatlin, Obikwelu or Martina that there are 7 athletes with PB's under 19.90 that COULD run sub-20 from lane 1: Bolt, Blake, Dix, Gay, Spearmon, Edwards, and Lemaitre. 
