Felix: Sucessful Double?

[lonewolf]

I'm still trying to figure out what Felix ever did to draw such a never-ending cascade of scorn. She's polite, friendly, deferential to her rivals, never a bad word.

And she's brave enough to take on difficult tasks. I just don't get it.

I'm with gh on this. Whats with all the dire predictions? She is one of the most personable world class athletes out there; even if she does not know you. If she wants to try the double that is her perogitive. No guts, no glory.

[26mi235]

She is at a significant disadvantage running (her first) championship 400 because: 1) she had not done rounds before; 2) has no experience running in lanes where a majority of the race is not in view and with unclear order; 3) without much experience in how to pace herself.

Losing by 0.03 to a good specialist (even without the 500 lb gorilla there) is not exactly a failure.

[guru]

As I said, and have all along - Felix's best shot at individual gold in London is the 400, so I'm glad that is squarely back in the discussion for her. But as I also said, if Richards-Ross finds her 48.7 form, and she seems to be well on her way, then that changes everything in the 400 landscape.

My concern is, at this late date, there still seems to be so much internal waffling on just what Felix will do.

[t_monk]

If she seriously decides she wants to go for it Felix has every possibility of getting a gold in the 400 and I don't care what shape SRR is in I think Felix honestly can match her in the 400 if needed. That being said if she goes for it her chances are shot in the 200 once more if you ask me. Seeing that it is an Olympic year the 200m is probably gonna see need a sub-22 just to medal and I just don't see hat happening after the work I think she will need to put in for that 400.

I like AF though and actually would want to see her try it.

[fasttrack85]

I could maybe see someone saying Felix best shot at gold is the 400 if this was September 2011. The threat of Montsho, the 2 Jamaican Williams, and the Russian AK'S(HAHA LIKE THAT PUN) is a walk in the park compared to Sanya Richards Ross when she is in top form which she seems to be.

I am not sure I have that much faith in Bobby Kersee's Training. Allyson 2011 season to me was dissapointing because if so much work was put into training for the 400 that she basically lost all her top end speed then it should have at least showed in her 400 numbers which only improved by .11(from 49.70 in 2007 to 49.59 at 2011 world champs) and in 2007 she really wasn't training specifically for the 400. If anything Allyson should be trying to do a 100/200 double if she doubles. Her 7.10 in the 60 meters shows very promising improvement in her front end speed and she should keep working at that and use 400 races sparingly just to maintain her trademark closing in the 200.

For someone to do a 200/400 double where the 400 comes first they basically have to be sure they have the 400 in the bag because it will be a detriment to the 200. Perec and Johnson were ahead of their competition in the 400 and when Valerie Brisco Hooks doubled at the 1984 olympic games most of the eastern bloc countries boycotted so she didn't have to deal with either Koch or Kratch in the 400 and her main 200 rivals Flo Jo and Ottey hadn't fully bloomed as yet.

Felix would need to know she is capable of at least doing 49.25 on a bad day to feel confident of maybe getting gold as that time is childs play to a top form SRR. After getting a silver or less she will be gassed, exhausted, and a bit defeated coming in to dealing with VCB who we know by the hook or crook will come strong in an olympic year. Allyson is going to have to watch her competitiors throughout the season before she decides. If Sanya starts slipping she can take her chances but if Sanya starts hitting low 49's consistently before trials then your playing with fire. Allyson needs to be able to run sub 22 minimum is she wants gold in the 200's and what are the chances of that after the 400 rounds? Maybe if Bobby made Allyson aware of VBH FULL TRAINING REGIMEN when she did her double she may realize why that magic may not happen for her that easily.

TO Allyson Felix if you ever visit TFN and read this:

My suggestion would be put everything you have Allyson into the 200. This is the race that brought you to the attention of the world. This is the race VCB snubbed from you twice. To win the 200 will be sweeter than winning the 400 anyway because you want to be able to say you beat VCB at the olympics in what may be her swan song and you won't be able to do it again. Focus on maintain that top end speed while not sacrificing your final 50 meter stalk in the 200. VCB has run the times she has run mainly because she knows when she shows up she will have to deal with you. The name Allyson Felix strikes fear in the heart of any woman who has to run against you in a 200. They are all praying to god that you do the double because a healthy in shape fresh Felix kneeling at the start line of a 200 is the nightmare of a few women who have their eyes on 200 meter gold.

[26mi235]

SRR will have a bit of a question mark about how things might progress/regress for atypical (medical) conditions, so I would not put all fo the eggs in one basket or the other at this point. The indoor 60 indicates that she is working on things that give her speed, which she needs in the 200, especially with the duo of VCB and Jeter, who might make additional large gains this year.

[mump boy]

Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment

[Gabriella]

I'm still trying to figure out what Felix ever did to draw such a never-ending cascade of scorn. She's polite, friendly, deferential to her rivals, never a bad word.

And she's brave enough to take on difficult tasks. I just don't get it.

I think a lot of it might be the Jamaica vs USA mentality. For me, I do respect the fact that she takes on these difficult takes. She is a talented athlete and I absolutely respect her track record. However, I find her saccharine sweet persona completely insincere. She says the right things, gives the obligatory smile etc. but it just comes across as fake. She's like a robot from Stepford Wives.

[unacceptable commentary removed by mods]

On the double question again, I used to think she should do the 400m and that's where her ability lies, but now I think she'd do better to focus on the 200m. One reserves the right to change ones mind She wants that title more than any other so has the hunger; there are less top women in that event capable of beating her; she has the experience in that event in Olympic years. If she were to solely focus on the 400m and had done in 2011 maybe I'd stick with the 400, but as she has been flirting with both for too long, stick with the 200. She just needs to get back to fast 100s and 200s again, if she wants that gold over the half lap. Forget the strength and 400 training, get back to speed work.

[mal]

I'm still trying to figure out what Felix ever did to draw such a never-ending cascade of scorn. She's polite, friendly, deferential to her rivals, never a bad word.

And she's brave enough to take on difficult tasks. I just don't get it.

I'm with gh on this. Whats with all the dire predictions? She is one of the most personable world class athletes out there; even if she does not know you. If she wants to try the double that is her perogitive. No guts, no glory.

She's a great runner, and apparently a great person.
But
The double is unlikely success, but makes for a pre-packaged excuse.

The real purpose is to win, and I think she lowers her chances. If she really showed her nerve, she'd pick one and let the chips fall.

She will not, and can not win both, and medaling in both is not enough for an athlete of her caliber.

[jazzcyclist]

TO Allyson Felix if you ever visit TFN and read this:

My suggestion would be put everything you have Allyson into the 200. This is the race that brought you to the attention of the world. This is the race VCB snubbed from you twice. To win the 200 will be sweeter than winning the 400 anyway because you want to be able to say you beat VCB at the olympics in what may be her swan song and you won't be able to do it again. Focus on maintain that top end speed while not sacrificing your final 50 meter stalk in the 200. VCB has run the times she has run mainly because she knows when she shows up she will have to deal with you. The name Allyson Felix strikes fear in the heart of any woman who has to run against you in a 200. They are all praying to god that you do the double because a healthy in shape fresh Felix kneeling at the start line of a 200 is the nightmare of a few women who have their eyes on 200 meter gold.

I couldn't have said it better myself. If Sanya and Veronica both bring their "A" games to London, Allyson will have virtually no chance at beating Sanya but will still have at least a 50% chance at beating Veronica, since she will probably be doubling. I also suspect that there would be no comparison in the personal satisfaction that Allyson would get in killing the ghosts of Athens and Beijing by preventing Veronica's three-peat to denying Sanya her first individual Olympic gold.

[nunusguy]

Felix's turnover in the 400 is about 4.2 steps per second. Optimally, her turnover in the 200 would be about 4.6 to 4.7 steps per second. But boosting that cadence during the middle of a meet is difficult, Mann said. If the order of events were reversed, it would be much easier. "All the bad things occur if you run the 400 first," he said.

On this point, Kersee disagrees with Mann: "The 200 takes much more out of you physically ,speed-wise. You tighten up more; you exert more energy in terms of ballistic speed."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... ons_sports
I don't think so ?

[26mi235]

Indoor 400 season:

1 SRR was significantly better than any- and everyone else
2 Few others showed anything real promising with respect to top-level competition
3 O showed better form in running the relay than in the open 400, and it seemed to be indicative to a mental shift that is part of a shift that may make her formidable again come outdoors

[mump boy]

TO Allyson Felix if you ever visit TFN and read this:

My suggestion would be put everything you have Allyson into the 200. This is the race that brought you to the attention of the world. This is the race VCB snubbed from you twice. To win the 200 will be sweeter than winning the 400 anyway because you want to be able to say you beat VCB at the olympics in what may be her swan song and you won't be able to do it again. Focus on maintain that top end speed while not sacrificing your final 50 meter stalk in the 200. VCB has run the times she has run mainly because she knows when she shows up she will have to deal with you. The name Allyson Felix strikes fear in the heart of any woman who has to run against you in a 200. They are all praying to god that you do the double because a healthy in shape fresh Felix kneeling at the start line of a 200 is the nightmare of a few women who have their eyes on 200 meter gold.

I couldn't have said it better myself. If Sanya and Veronica both bring their "A" games to London, Allyson will have virtually no chance at beating Sanya but will still have at least a 50% chance at beating Veronica, since she will probably be doubling. I also suspect that there would be no comparison in the personal satisfaction that Allyson would get in killing the ghosts of Athens and Beijing by preventing Veronica's three-peat to denying Sanya her first individual Olympic gold.

But what is Sanya's championship A game ?? We've only ever seen it once and there is no real indication that we're ever going to see it again

I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets

[lonewolf]

I don't know if many/any elite athletes visit this forum but I do wonder whether they are amused or irritated by the unsolicited coaching/training/competition advice. I am certain the athletes and their coaches are well aware of the competition and the pros and cons of concentrating on one (and which) event vs. doubling.

[ATK]

Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment

I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.

[tandfman]

I don't know if many/any elite athletes visit this forum but I do wonder whether they are amused or irritated by the unsolicited coaching/training/competition advice.

If they can't stand the heat, they should stay out of the kitchen.

Seriously, the advice offered on this forum is tame compared to what is offered elsewhere on the web. Any elite athlete who is prone to being at all irritated or distracted by the cyber-noise has the easy option of not visiting sites where they know they will likely be subjected to that sort of thing. I suspect that most of those who do not find this stuff amusing do exactly that--they avoid this forum and others like the plague.

[DJG]

At this stage of guessing what Felix should do in London:

I would have to say ... 200 at London (with the two relays)
and then go for the 400 at the Worlds in Mockba in 2013. (if London 200 Gold is in the bank).

As for SRR being in top form for the 400...I believe Clyde Hart is still her coach.
He will have her at the best she is capable of at the right time. (That money is in the bank)

Camp Felix will most likely make their decision in mid-May, Acension Thursday, the 17th.
Just a guess, no inside info, no repeated-cyber-rumor, just my guess.

[gh]

Unfortunately, no matter what Coach Hart does, it's Coach Behçet who makes all the final calls on what SRR can and can't do.

[guru]

I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets

Yes, well she seemed to handle three rounds of the open 400 in two days just fine in Istanbul, culminating in another victory under her pre-2012 PR.

[DJG]

Unfortunately, no matter what Coach Hart does, it's Coach Behçet who makes all the final calls on what SRR can and can't do.

GH, Absolutely. My qualifying with "the best she is capable of" was written with her health in mind. My confidence in Coach Hart is shared with the good doctors treating SRR's condition.
Sonya has great heart and Hart and will give it her best. Of that I have no doubts.

[fasttrack85]

Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment

I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.

If she focuses on only the 200 at least silver is secure and only a top form VCB can beat her. Jeter is only a threat to Felix if she puts too much into effort into doubling and trains however she did in 2011. Jeter Personal best is still only 22.20 a number Allyson could do on her worst day in a good year. Jeter would have alot of improving to do to compete with either the VCB of 08 or the Felix of 07-09.

[ATK]

Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment

I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.

If she focuses on only the 200 at least silver is secure and only a top form VCB can beat her. Jeter is only a threat to Felix if she puts too much into effort into doubling and trains however she did in 2011. Jeter Personal best is still only 22.20 a number Allyson could do on her worst day in a good year. Jeter would have alot of improving to do to compete with either the VCB of 08 or the Felix of 07-09.

Unfortunately this isn't 07-09. Jeter is getting more and more consistent over the longer distance. Also considering the very likely scenario of her winning the 100m, and this being her secondary event, Jeter would be able to go into the 200 way more relaxed. Compared to Felix, who will be going into the 200, no matter what, with tons of pressure considering her past Olympic outcomes and it being her primary event.
I wont be a tad bit surprised to see Jeter pull off double gold(plus relay).

[26mi235]

I agree with ATK. We are not sure what sort of progress Jeter is going to make but last year it went from 'oh, she is running an over-distance race to help her 100 and she did OK at it' to winning the season finale and ranking at a level almost no one would have thought just a few months earlier.

[mump boy]

I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets

Yes, well she seemed to handle three rounds of the open 400 in two days just fine in Istanbul, culminating in another victory under her pre-2012 PR.

Seeing as she hasn't run indoors for 6 years and her previous PR was set 8 years ago that is not really surprising. She may have handled 3 rounds (against very weak field ok) but she was sub par in the relay (even taking into account poor tactical choices)

Are we really saying that a Sanya Richards back to her best and ready to win the Olympic Games Gold Medal is only capable of 50.70 indoors ?? I'm not saying it won't happen, just that going on her past record she is going to show a lot more form than that before i'm ready to hang any medal round her neck, never mind the gold.

[mump boy]

I also think Jeter is a big threat, even to VCB, in the 200m

[Gabriella]

Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard.

On SRR, I agree with Mump. I wasn't hugely impressed by her indoor running. The good thing was that she could run a couple of races in one day. She also looked to have a good acceleration as well. But time-wise it was nothing to write home about. She's now 27 and we're in 2012 and 'all' she has to show outdoors for her enormous talent is 1 World title, 1 Olympic bronze & 1 World bronze. I've posted before that elite women quarter milers tend to have around a 4 year period when at their very best. I feel SRR has had this and we wont see her at her best again. On paper she doesn't need to be at her best to win gold; 49.2 to 49.5 should do the trick, but in practice, if she's not head and shoulders above her opposition she tends to mess it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.

[ATK]

Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard. s it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.

Age is only a number. Same time last year she would be 32 at the end of the year. And 31 the year before, oh and 30 durring that 2009 season.....yea

I do agree with the pressure aspect though, but like I said before, the 200 is her secondary event, so it would apply more to the 100m.

[jazzcyclist]

Don't assume that Jeter, Felix and Campbell have already locked up the medals. There are always some up and comers to watch out for.

[t_monk]

Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard.

On SRR, I agree with Mump. I wasn't hugely impressed by her indoor running. The good thing was that she could run a couple of races in one day. She also looked to have a good acceleration as well. But time-wise it was nothing to write home about. She's now 27 and we're in 2012 and 'all' she has to show outdoors for her enormous talent is 1 World title, 1 Olympic bronze & 1 World bronze. I've posted before that elite women quarter milers tend to have around a 4 year period when at their very best. I feel SRR has had this and we wont see her at her best again. On paper she doesn't need to be at her best to win gold; 49.2 to 49.5 should do the trick, but in practice, if she's not head and shoulders above her opposition she tends to mess it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.

I agree with this. With Jeter especially, to get to sub-22 she will need to do serious work on her curve and transition. That is not something you just learn just by waking up, it's something you learn after years of practice. Also, as admirably as Jeter performed last year the winning time from last year was not that great and same can be said about the other places that made up the top 3. If the likes of Felix, Lee, Stewart. Myers or even Simpson were there and/or at their best last year Jeter would have had an issue making top 5.

SRR as impressive as she is in general does not look impenetrable in the 400m. She did a great job indoors but she didn't have the level of competition that the outdoor season will bring. Olympics should bring a higher level of sprinting and if Felix goes for the double you can be sure that after getting so close in 2011 that she will be in better shape than 2011 I think. With that being said I would think that Felix will be capable of 49.low/sub-49.

[26mi235]

SRR's journey is significantly different than other top 400 runners so fitting her into that mold, especially as far as timing goes is more problematic than most. Similarly, Jeter should be compared with those athletes that did not take up full time, hard training until much later. One reason that athletes do not do well at 33 is because they have had their day, their bodies are worn out, and they find it time to move on. Jeter does not have that timing; look instead to people who started later (Ottey is the outlier and not particularly a good model because she was about world-class in college rather than someone that had not gotten their training and timing right).

[preston]

Oh goody! Another Felix thread. Why the only think it could compare to is another VCB thread. Maybe we can start a thread where we compare the two - has that ever happened?

Felix' only problem is that she is sandwiched between the VCB lovers/defenders and the SRR lovers/defenders. I personally like her and I think she is great for the sport.

I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.

As it concerns Jeter's age; that's a red-herring for athletic performance that doesn't stand up to scrutiny. History has shown MANY post-30+ men and women who were improving or maintaining (Ottey, Christie, Sturrup, Foster-Hylton, Patton, Devers, Collins). Age is a factor, certainly, but not as much of a disqualifier as is often thrown around by people who should not better.

[t_monk]

I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.

I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.

[preston]

I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.

Not sure if you participated in this thread (I didn't have time to look) viewtopic.php?f=1&t=45991&p=743816&hilit=miller#p743816 but many of the women who made the greatest dips under 22 HAD NEVER RUN UNDER 22 BEFORE! Grace Jackson only ran under 22 once! Juliet Cutherbert...once. Inger Miller...once! Grace's acceleration would have been laughed at by both Lemaitre and Spearmon - and she was sub-11, iirc. My point is that many of these things that you feel are EVOLUTIONARY are actually REVOLUTIONARY. Similar...but one letter makes all the difference! PB's normally come in chunks, not in increments! Just ask Usain, Yohan, Christophe, MJ, etc. Jeter doesn't quite have the 100m, but this year if she puts it all together she can complete the 1/2 double. Yes, it's "get"-able.

I also think the issue of doubling is severely overrated. Felix failed the double because...well...ask guru and a few others. I personally think that with different prep she should be able to handle the double with sub-21.8/sub-49 performances.

[fasttrack85]

I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.

I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.

This is exactly how I feel about the double aspect( both running the actual race in London and training for it). She can possibly get a new pb in the 200 if she focuses more on speed than endurance. Training endurance is only going to end up with sub par 200 performances like in 2011.

[ATK]

I also think the issue of doubling is severely overrated. Felix failed the double because...well...ask guru and a few others. I personally think that with different prep she should be able to handle the double with sub-21.8/sub-49 performances.

This is a bit unrealistic. After 6 rounds of 400m and 200m with no rest day, you really think Felix is capable of a 21.7?
What has she shown in the past 5 years to realistically indicate that?