Sub 11

[26mi235]

Well, there is this: [top seed in the West Regional]

3 Jeneba Tarmoh JR Texas A&M 10.94 [wind-aided, I think, but I also think that it converts to a sub-11 wind-legal mark with wind of 2.0 or less]

[7-sided]

Since most of the athletes that would run sub-11 are NACAC athletes, and the NACAC season is earlier than all but the Southern Hemisphere, it seems that everyone who has a chance a running beneath the barrier has shown some form this year. Below are the athletes who I think still have a chance. It will be very interesting to see what the girls from GBR do this year. They haven't shown any results but the run-up to the games may present some outsized PB's this year (i'm interested to see what J. Williams will do). And what will the Ukranians do outdoors? Also, I'm gonna continue to stick my neck out and say that no college girls break 11. However, there are quite a few who are in spitting distance (underlined are collegiate).


11.01 1.8 Alexandria Anderson (she needs a breakthough more than a PB; The USA needs a newcomer for the Jamaican development train)
11.03 0.6 English Gardner college kid runs 11.03 with negligible wind?! Head says yes but proprietary formula says no
11.05 1.7 Schillonie Calvert I predicted last year that she would be heard from; she waited a year
11.06 1.9 Murielle Ahoure remember her 2009 indoor season...then poof; great to see her back but 1.9w does not give me much hope
11.07 1.9 Sherone Simpson I want to believe she will...but I think she'll fall short. I hope not
11.07 1.9 Kerron Stewart slow recovery from injury but she has plenty of time to run sub-11
11.08 1.0 Ivet Lalova Great to see her back since her broken leg. I think she runs sub-11. (Of course, that 10.77 is as bogus as 10.49 [flyer v. wind]). Plus, I love her belly tattoo!
11.09 Marshevet Myers she will
11.10 0.1 LaKya Brookins see English Gardner
11.25 -1.6 Jeneba Tarmoh see English Gardner

[26mi235]

11.03 0.6 English Gardner college kid runs 11.03 with negligible wind?! Head says yes but proprietary formula says no

11.10 0.1 LaKya Brookins see English Gardner
11.25 -1.6 Jeneba Tarmoh see English Gardner

Care to say more here? 11.03/0.6//700m altitude gives room for a legal sea-level sub-11. Tarmoh has more history but 11.25/-1.6 is well above a sub-11 even with a 2.0 wind, while Brookins mark is right on the cusp.

[7-sided]

Tarmoh's time doesn't reflect what she's capable of; it would be negligent, based upon knowledge of the top NCAA sprinters, not to include her. But, somewhere in this thread I put forward the theory that college kids generally don't go sub. It worked last year as Okagbare just missed, but it looks like it will be put to the test with Gardner, Brookins and Tarmoh.

Gardner looks most likely but when you factor in that NCAA's is a team sport for Oregon, South Carolina and Tx A&M you can see why it becomes more difficult to run sub-11 (1, 2, 4x1, 4x4). Also, USATF is usually no more than 10 days from NCAA's conclusion so it becomes more difficult to run that sub-11 race when the race you have to run is not your race (meaning: you can't go through your normal progression without feeling stress like you would in a college meet because the "senior" girls will still be in front of you in qualifying; pressing doesn't usually lead to PB's). Anyway, I'm sticking to it.

[26mi235]

Thanks -- A little further clarification if you would. If Gardner does take the 'team' rout and holds back from tying to optimize her 100 time in Drake/NCAAs are you saying that she will not really be up for peaking at USATF/WC Trials because it is too soon or too long to hold her peak?

[t_monk]

Kerron Stewart back to sub-11
Meyers back to sub-11
SAFP back to sub-11

SS, Okagabe and Anderson on the bubble at 11.00

[7-sided]

Thanks -- A little further clarification if you would. If Gardner does take the 'team' rout and holds back from tying to optimize her 100 time in Drake/NCAAs are you saying that she will not really be up for peaking at USATF/WC Trials because it is too soon or too long to hold her peak?

I don't worry about the "holding of the peak" for USATF as much as the actual load. It's a bear for college sprinters. It's kind of like when you see a junior sprinter run fast against juniors and then struggle against seniors with similar PB's...the race is different; they're forced to press; everything happens quicker (think rookie QB in NFL). As for the team rout, the "mentality" is to win NCAA's more than it is to PB - especially for Pat Henry's crew. The rounds and races add up.

Lastly, you reminded me that Drake will have NC's. Expect stiff head winds or wind aided races.

Kerron Stewart back to sub-11
Meyers back to sub-11
SAFP back to sub-11

SS, Okagabe and Anderson on the bubble at 11.00

My theory is getting crushed! Between Eugene and Clermont, no sub predictions can ever be safe! 7 already with at least 5 more on the bubble. However, 12 women went sub-11 in the most previous Olympic year (7 USA; 5 JAM) so there may be something to texas_speed's contention that the Olympic year produces the spikes. But, now we have a NGR and a TRI below 11 with a BUL threatening! And, the Europeans haven't really started. I think at least 2 Euro women will go sub-11 by seasons end (I know, crazy prediction).

This may be the biggest sub-11 year ever.

[t_monk]

I am still waiting for the wind reading but the Claremont results has 3 more sub-11 females....

Murielle Ahoure 10.85
Shalonda Solomon 10.90
Taniesha Harrigan 10.97

[t_monk]

Ivet Lalova 10.96 makes her sub-11 too.

[t_monk]

Thus far it's eight (8):
C. Jeter
M. Myers
K. Baptiste
VCB
Osayomi
Stewart
SAFP
Lalova

[t_monk]

Time to bring this back up...

Last season we had 8 sub-11 females:

10.70 2.0 Carmelita Jeter Eugene, OR (sub-11 8 times)
10.76 1.1 Veronica Campbell-Brown Ostrava (sub-11 7 times)
10.86 2.0 Marshevet Myers Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.87 2.0 Kerron Stewart Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.90 0.4 Kelly-Ann Baptiste Bruxelles (sub-11 5 times)
10.95 2.0 Shelly-Ann Fraser - Pryce Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.96 0.8 Ivet Lalova Sliven (sub-11 1 time)
10.99 1.8 Oludamola Osayomi São Paulo (IDCM) (sub-11 1 time)

I was off base last season with a number of persons not making sub-11 but teetering close (Anderson, Simpson, Russell and Blessings particularly) and others just plain disappointing (Lee and L. Williams).

With this being an Olympic we usually get a spike in the number of athletes running top times. Just a quick prediction of who I think will probably go sub-11 this year:

Sure:
Carmelita Jeter
Veronica Campbell-Brown
Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
Kerron Stewart
Kelly-Ann Baptist
Marshevet Myers

Likely Candidates:
Sherone Simpson
Ivet Lalova
Alexander Anderson
Blessing Okagarbe
Carrie Russell
Murielle Ahoure
LaVerne Jones-Ferrette

Athletes to watch:
Tianna Madison
Lauryn Williams
Muna Lee
Aleen Bailey
LaShauntea Moore
Shalonda Solomon
Schillonie Calvert
Jeneba Tarmoh
Allyson Felix

Everyone in the 'sure' list will go sub-11. I expect at least 3/4 of the 'most likely' list to deliver and as for the 'Athletes to watch'... I have no idea what they will do...

[ATK]

I love Muna Lee, and would love to see her come back to form, but she has only broken 11sec(legally) twice as far as I can find. It would really be a magnificent comeback story if she got back to her world class self though.

Also, why no Bahamians on your to watch list?

[Speedster]

I think Murielle Ahoure is the next one to break 11, with her consistent 60m performances in 2012 and her windy 10.86 from last season.

Who coaches her? Is she still with Amy Deem?

[26mi235]

Yes, but she lost a meter to VCB in a very short distance at the end of the 60 and that does not bode well for adding another 40m.

[Speedster]

7.01 to 7.04 isn't quite a metre but agree she's a starter rather than a finisher. I think we've seen enough to see her sneak sub 11.

[t_monk]

I didn't bring up any of the Bahamians for the mere reason that well... they're getting up there. I know that DFM has stated that she intends to focus on the 200 so I don't see much chances for her to get sub-11 in the 100. As for Chandra Stirrup she is 40 going on 41, as much as I think she definitely can get a 11.1x or 11.0x I just am not seeing sub-11. Now unless Sheniqua Ferguson is going to make a massive leap... I will keep firm on my predictions...

Muna Lee usually comes good in Olympic years and I am banking on that (plus I just like her).

As for Muriel Ahoure... I think she gets it... She is definitely faster in the 60m now than she was last season and if you take into consideration that she has an 11.06 PB already, if she can get in enough races and stays fit she should be able to sneak in a 10.9x or so.

[nianchengyu]

I am wodering Dafne Schippers ,how fast can she run in order to get 11s,

[preston]

2 names I would like to add to this list are Barbara Pierre and possibly English Gardner. Pierre and Gardner both have sub-7.10 and 11.0x PB's (11.14 w2.0 in the case of Pierre). These are prerequisites for sub-11. But are they? Well yes and no. Below I've added the 20m splits from Berlin for the womens 100m. I've underlined the 60m time and also the final time. What the data seems to suggest is that you can't get to sub-11 without being roughly sub-7.10 at 60m. However, I've watched some pretty unlikely candidates breach 11 that defied that notion. Anyone remember D'andre Hill? There was absolutely zero warning that she could run 10.92 (1996). Her PB for 60m was 7.47 and 23.61 for 200m. THIS IS NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN, but she did it. It shows that the same athletes that may not be great indoors to give us a peek into their progress are waiting to bust out on the big track. So though I agree with T-monk's "sure" things it is really hard to pick which women will as we all know. I would add to the "athletes to watch": L. Brookins, G. Asumnu, J. Young, J. Davis and the European pick would be A. Philip. Crazy pick? Brittney Reese.

(one last thing: Sturrup and Ferguson-McKenzie still have the goods to go sub-11. I doubt it will happen but they're within the margin of error at 60m or what they did last year. I would write off the younger Bahamians like Furguson, Smith, etc.)

http://berlin.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Deve ... _14197.pdf
Round Wind RT t20m t40m t60m t80m t100m t20-40 t40-60 t60-80 t80-100 t30m t30-60
Fraser Shelly-Ann
JAM Fi 0,1 0,146 3,03 4,98 6,88 8,77 10,73 1,95 1,90 1,89 1,96 4,02 2,86
JAM SF 1 -0,1 0,156 3,06 5,04 6,94 8,84 10,79 1,98 1,90 1,90 1,95 4,07 2,87
Stewart Kerron
JAM Fi 0,1 0,170 3,11 5,07 6,96 8,82 10,75 1,96 1,89 1,86 1,93 4,11 2,85
JAM SF 1 -0,1 0,155 3,09 5,06 6,94 8,87 10,84 1,97 1,88 1,93 1,97 4,09 2,85
Jeter Carmelita
USA Fi 0,1 0,160 3,13 5,09 7,01 8,91 10,90 1,96 1,92 1,90 1,99 4,13 2,88
USA SF 2 -0,1 0,144 3,12 5,09 7,00 8,89 10,83 1,97 1,91 1,89 1,94 4,12 2,88
Campbell-Brown Veronica
JAM Fi 0,1 0,135 3,12 5,12 7,06 8,97 10,95 2,00 1,94 1,91 1,98 4,14 2,92
JAM SF 2 -0,1 0,148 3,13 5,15 7,10 9,02 11,00 2,02 1,95 1,92 1,98 4,16 2,94
Williams Lauryn
USA Fi 0,1 0,158 3,14 5,13 7,08 9,00 11,01 1,99 1,95 1,92 2,01 4,15 2,93
USA SF 1 -0,1 0,148 3,17 5,16 7,11 9,02 11,01 1,99 1,95 1,91 1,99 4,18 2,93
Ferguson-McKenzie Debbie
BAH Fi 0,1 0,130 3,15 5,16 7,12 9,06 11,05 2,01 1,96 1,94 1,99 4,17 2,95
BAH SF 1 -0,1 0,146 3,15 5,16 7,12 9,04 11,03 2,01 1,96 1,92 1,99 4,17 2,95
Sturrup Chandra
BAH Fi 0,1 0,137 3,11 5,11 7,07 9,02 11,05 2,00 1,96 1,95 2,03 4,13 2,94
BAH SF 2 -0,1 0,127 3,11 5,10 7,08 9,01 11,01 1,99 1,98 1,93 2,00 4,12 2,96
Bailey Aleen
JAM Fi 0,1 0,173 3,24 5,27 7,23 9,18 11,16 2,03 1,96 1,95 1,98 4,27 2,96
JAM SF 2 -0,1 0,199 3,23 5,25 7,22 9,16 11,16 2,02 1,97 1,94 2,00 4,26 2,96
Baptiste Kelly-Ann TRI SF 1 -0,1 0,141 3,13 5,14 7,11 9,04 11,07 2,01 1,97 1,93 2,03 4,15 2,96
Lee Muna USA SF 2 -0,1 0,179 3,21 5,24 7,21 9,16 11,18 2,03 1,97 1,95 2,02 4,24 2,97
Sailer Verena GER SF 1 -0,1 0,149 3,16 5,19 7,19 9,17 11,24 2,03 2,00 1,98 2,07 4,19 3,00
Harrigan Tahesia IVB SF 1 -0,1 0,146 3,14 5,20 7,24 9,25 11,34 2,06 2,04 2,01 2,09 4,19 3,05
Anim Vida GHA SF 2 -0,1 0,125 3,19 5,25 7,30 9,33 11,43 2,06 2,05 2,03 2,10 4,24 3,06
Hackett Semoy TRI SF 2 -0,1 0,131 1,00 5,25 7,30 9,34 11,45 4,25 2,05 2,04 2,11 3,16 4,14
Artymata Eleni CYP SF 2 -0,1 0,164 3,32 5,42 7,45 9,45 11,49 2,10 2,03 2,00 2,04 4,39 3,06
Hutchinson Ayanna TRI SF 1 -0,1 0,169 3,28 5,38 7,44 9,46 11,58 2,10 2,06 2,02 2,12 4,35 3,09

I am wodering Dafne Schippers ,how fast can she run in order to get 11s,

Schippers, believe it or not, is almost there. It all depends on how much faster she can improve her first 60m outdoors (I think her 200m PB gives a great indication of her speed maintenance). I've shown in another thread that many of the sub-11 women have similar 60m PB's as Daphne, however, my guess is that they significantly improved the first 60m in their sub-11 race(s).

[gh]

2 names I would like to add to this list are Barbara Pierre and possibly English Gardner. Pierre and Gardner both have sub-7.10 and 11.0x PB's (11.14 w2.0 in the case of Pierre). ...

Although anything can happen when it comes to 100s on the Eugene track (one of the world leaders in anomalous times), I don't see it remotely like you do.

Gardner is at 7.12, not sub-7.10, and the 7.12 is in Nampa, with altitude of 764m. Her anomalous 11.03 is from Tucson, with an altitude of 747m. The rest of her career top 10 in the 100? Never under 11.10, only twice under 11.25. And the No. 10 time of her career is still only 10.61!
(11.03, 11.17, 11.18, 11.25, 11.30, 11.31, 11.39, 11.39, 11.40, 11.61).

As for Pierre her sub 7.10s are both from ABQ (altitude 1512m), and her 11.0x doesn't exist; it's an 11.14 from the nobody-believes-it site of Clermont. Outside of Clermont she has a pair of 11.18s.

Based on recent results (which is what really counts) both look to be on the right track to big things. But the numbers aren't indicating it. At least not to me.

[t_monk]

I kinda tempered my list for sub-11 because I have to kinda play the numbers game in my head and my list seems extensive as it is... There are definitely more people out there that given absolutely PERFECT conditions in their best or near best form they can run sub-11, but I'm just assuming that won't happen.

The collegiates I find usually have no gas left after the NCAA's, the women at least. As much as I think English Gardner particularly is a talent, I don't think she is quite ready to go sub-11. She was a FR last year I think which just makes her a Sophomore this year.

Pierre on the other hand.... I honestly don't know what to take of her.... This is the first season I am really seeing what she is capable of and as credibly as she did perform this indoor season gh is right where her 60m times are concerned. I don't too ascribed much to times ran at the US trials when they are ran in Eugene or New Mexico.

If I were to add her or Gardner to any list it would be as 'Athletes to Watch' and not too high in my head. I like Brookins' and Young's prospects now they are out of college. McGrone and Duncan in particular are also interesting prospects. If I were added them though I would also throw in Jura Levy and Semoy Hackett.

J. Davis and G. Asumnu... I just am not too convinced about those two but as you said... anything can happen.

Britney Reese reminds me of a Marion Jones (in terms of build and raw talent) so I think she can make it if she focuses... but she won't get it in one season... She has enough problems working on her LJ technique, I would shudder to think what a coach would have to do to fix her sprint technique >_<

Asha Phillips.... too soon if you ask me.

[Pelpa]

I don't foresee this season as a breakout season for many sub-11 gals. 'cept for Blessings there really aren't any others who are on the bubble and will likely transition into the big league...I think.

[ATK]

I don't foresee this season as a breakout season for many sub-11 gals. 'cept for Blessings there really aren't any others who are on the bubble and will likely transition into the big league...I think.

With current the group of women running now, sub 11 is not the big league. Its just sub 11.

[preston]

Great point, ATK, sub-11 really isn't anything anymore; however, it may tell us who may be next to make the jump to the sub-10.90 realm - which still doesn't guarantee a medal. Can London finish be as good as Barcelona '92? Devers, Cuthbert, Privalova, Torrence, Ottey all within a few hundredths.

[ATK]

Muna Lee usually comes good in Olympic years and I am banking on that (plus I just like her).

Unfortunately Muna Lee just recently ran 11.45

[t_monk]

Muna Lee usually comes good in Olympic years and I am banking on that (plus I just like her).

Unfortunately Muna Lee just recently ran 11.45

Yeah.... I saw.... *sighs*

One can hope though....
But she is looking very weak right now....

[Gabriella]

As most know, running sub 7.10 is not an indication an athlete will run sub 11. There are numerous women in the 7.0+ range, some who have run 7.0+s a number of times, that have never run sub 11secs. So we have to take this with a little pinch of salt. Each athlete treats the indoor season differently, some as a break from training, so will peak for indoors champs etc.

Look at the womens lists indoors in 2009. Jeter ran 7.11; LaKaya Brooks ran 7.13, yet outdoors Jeter did 10.64 and Brooks 11.20. Big difference!

If we want to look at an athlete's 60m times and progression, then possibly add Verena Sailer to the "may break 11 secs in 2012" list. She was progressing nicely till 2011;
2007 - 11.31
2008 - 11.28
2009 - 11.18
2010 - 11.10
And then BAM! An injury in 2011 left her with one race and an SB of 11.63. But she has come out in 2012 in PB form, running 7.15. Her previous best was 7.17. If she can run 11.10 (and that 11.06w when she stumbled out of the blocks) then maybe she'll be running a smidge under 11 secs this summer? Her problem, other than injury again, is the German approach of running mainly national level meets against her own country women. She needs more GP races. It's one thing running 11.1 against 11.3 women, but another running 11.1 against 10.8 women.

[t_monk]

As most know, running sub 7.10 is not an indication an athlete will run sub 11. There are numerous women in the 7.0+ range, some who have run 7.0+s a number of times, that have never run sub 11secs. So we have to take this with a little pinch of salt. Each athlete treats the indoor season differently, some as a break from training, so will peak for indoors champs etc.

Look at the womens lists indoors in 2009. Jeter ran 7.11; LaKaya Brooks ran 7.13, yet outdoors Jeter did 10.64 and Brooks 11.20. Big difference!

If we want to look at an athlete's 60m times and progression, then possibly add Verena Sailer to the "may break 11 secs in 2012" list. She was progressing nicely till 2011;
2007 - 11.31
2008 - 11.28
2009 - 11.18
2010 - 11.10
And then BAM! An injury in 2011 left her with one race and an SB of 11.63. But she has come out in 2012 in PB form, running 7.15. Her previous best was 7.17. If she can run 11.10 (and that 11.06w when she stumbled out of the blocks) then maybe she'll be running a smidge under 11 secs this summer? Her problem, other than injury again, is the German approach of running mainly national level meets against her own country women. She needs more GP races. It's one thing running 11.1 against 11.3 women, but another running 11.1 against 10.8 women.

I think the running form of Verena Sailer needs a serious overhaul.

[Gabriella]

Ha ha, yes, she isn't the best stylist. Her stride and legs are ok, infact she's ok up to her elbows..then from there upwards it turns ugly - so much tension it looks like she's going to pop a blood vessel!
She really does fight all the way and would benefit from relaxing. Her stride length was actually very good in 2010 (though again, that awful upper body) and this indoors she has improved her drive phase (but not her first 3 strides..she gets a terrible start). But overall definitely not one to be copied. But if she can do 11.10 from awful form, you do wonder whether a few technical alterations and relaxing could give her another tenth

[26mi235]

I think that Gabriella made a very good case. Besides, she might get a bit of refinement over time; was she getting a bit better over the 2006-2010 timeframe?

[preston]

7.10. The explanation.

I never meant that 7.10 was an indication that someone WOULD run sub-11, I only meant that 7.10 was ABOUT the Maximum time someone would have to be at 60m -WHILE RUNNING 100m. That is why Pierre and Gardner were added; they were the women who could be at 7.10 EN ROUTE to 100m. The Berlin results bear that out somewhat as 7.10 becomes the maximum to 11.00 (VCB, 7.10/11.00; LW, 7.11/11.01; DFM, 7.12/11.02 [Sturrup and Williams are the only women who run sub-7.10 and manage not to run sub-11).

Now, many women won't figure out how to run sub-7.10 until outdoors because their training isn't geared towards achieving that so indoors is only an indication of how well someone runs the 60m INDOORS. But, what Berlin results seem to bear out is that no matter who the athlete is, if they are NOT at 7.10 or better when they reach 60m then they can't run sub-11.

Sailer may be a victim of that Euro/Deutsch coaching that Gabs lauds. She doesn't produce enough power in the latter part of the race due to her "bent forward", toe reaching, style; indicative of the GDR girls of old. Now, one of the reasons, imo, is BECAUSE of those arms but it's not like she's a newcomer, the question has to be asked why that hasn't been addressed. If any European breaks 11 it will be someone currently NOT on the radar or Schippers of NED, should she decide to be a sprinter (I'm very doubtful of the FRA and GBR girls now).

[fasttrack85]

Time to bring this back up...

Last season we had 8 sub-11 females:

10.70 2.0 Carmelita Jeter Eugene, OR (sub-11 8 times)
10.76 1.1 Veronica Campbell-Brown Ostrava (sub-11 7 times)
10.86 2.0 Marshevet Myers Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.87 2.0 Kerron Stewart Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.90 0.4 Kelly-Ann Baptiste Bruxelles (sub-11 5 times)
10.95 2.0 Shelly-Ann Fraser - Pryce Eugene, OR (sub-11 2 times)
10.96 0.8 Ivet Lalova Sliven (sub-11 1 time)
10.99 1.8 Oludamola Osayomi São Paulo (IDCM) (sub-11 1 time)

I was off base last season with a number of persons not making sub-11 but teetering close (Anderson, Simpson, Russell and Blessings particularly) and others just plain disappointing (Lee and L. Williams).

With this being an Olympic we usually get a spike in the number of athletes running top times. Just a quick prediction of who I think will probably go sub-11 this year:

Sure:
Carmelita Jeter
Veronica Campbell-Brown
Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
Kerron Stewart
Kelly-Ann Baptist
Marshevet Myers

Likely Candidates:
Sherone Simpson
Ivet Lalova
Alexander Anderson
Blessing Okagarbe
Carrie Russell
Murielle Ahoure
LaVerne Jones-Ferrette

Athletes to watch:
Tianna Madison
Lauryn Williams
Muna Lee
Aleen Bailey
LaShauntea Moore
Shalonda Solomon
Schillonie Calvert
Jeneba Tarmoh
Allyson Felix

Everyone in the 'sure' list will go sub-11. I expect at least 3/4 of the 'most likely' list to deliver and as for the 'Athletes to watch'... I have no idea what they will do...

I would actually upgrade Allyson Felix to likely. Her 7.10 in the 60 meters is very promising and her vertical has increased a couple inches so its clear her explosiveness is at a peak we have never seen it so if she can maintain that as well as her trademark speed endurance then I think we may be looking at sub 10.9 and maybe even a new personal 200 best.

On a side note since this is an olympic year Sherrone might actually be sure. Granted she doesn't get hit by a Minibus in Kingston.

[t_monk]

I would actually upgrade Allyson Felix to likely. Her 7.10 in the 60 meters is very promising and her vertical has increased a couple inches so its clear her explosiveness is at a peak we have never seen it so if she can maintain that as well as her trademark speed endurance then I think we may be looking at sub 10.9 and maybe even a new personal 200 best.

On a side note since this is an olympic year Sherrone might actually be sure. Granted she doesn't get hit by a Minibus in Kingston.

The reason I put Allyson in the 'Likely' list is because I honesty don't think she will be running many if any 100m. Especially with the news that she is planning on running the 400/200 maybe I suspect she will not be focusing too much on the 100. Also in regards to her 60m PB, I don't put too much stock into that because I always thought she had that speed om the 60. The reason we never had it on paper was because she simply never ran the event since 2005. If she had ran it in 2007/8 (I think her best years sprint-wise) she would be able to pull out a 7.10 or faster easily.

I think Sherone will probably go sub-11 before Myers and Baptist probably this year... I just don't want to jinx it >_<

[fasttrack85]

I would actually upgrade Allyson Felix to likely. Her 7.10 in the 60 meters is very promising and her vertical has increased a couple inches so its clear her explosiveness is at a peak we have never seen it so if she can maintain that as well as her trademark speed endurance then I think we may be looking at sub 10.9 and maybe even a new personal 200 best.

On a side note since this is an olympic year Sherrone might actually be sure. Granted she doesn't get hit by a Minibus in Kingston.

The reason I put Allyson in the 'Likely' list is because I honesty don't think she will be running many if any 100m. Especially with the news that she is planning on running the 400/200 maybe I suspect she will not be focusing too much on the 100. Also in regards to her 60m PB, I don't put too much stock into that because I always thought she had that speed om the 60. The reason we never had it on paper was because she simply never ran the event since 2005. If she had ran it in 2007/8 (I think her best years sprint-wise) she would be able to pull out a 7.10 or faster easily.

I think Sherone will probably go sub-11 before Myers and Baptist probably this year... I just don't want to jinx it >_<

I don't think Allyson has clearly stated she is doing the double. What I got from recent articles is she hasn't dismissed the thought completely but she is meandering with it. She may even be trying to throw people off( my conspiracy theory). I already spoke about why running both races in london that is a bad idea in the Allyson double thread. Even if she is doing the double she should still be running 100's for the sake of the 200. She can't keep banking on running VCB down with 400 strength, that will be too much to do after running 400 rounds.

She may have had similar 60 meter speed in 2008. That was only because she was training to make the 100 team for Bejing. 7.10 for Allyson Felix means more than 7.10 with anyone else because Allyson maintains her speed better than anyone in the business. So my predictions are based on her giving 100 priority in her schedules this season and if she does I see her doing 10.88 even as high as 10.85.

[enpsalmx]

Octavious Freeman of UCF is coming..... just needs to get stronger. Would love to see sub-eleven this year but expect a bright future for her.

[t_monk]

I am not doubting Allyson's potential however I do doubt that her management will allow her to run that much 100 to allow her to hit sub-11. She will be running more 400 and 200. The mere fact that they are still mulling over the 400/200 means that her training will be slightly more geared towards just that. I think if she actually commits to having some semblance of a drive phase and runs a couple 100's seriously she will get to sub-11. My take on it though is that she just doesn't have the drive to do just that.

I agree with Freeman being one for the future but I don't see it being the immediate future. We will not see a sub-11 from her until the next season or 2