Master Po wrote: Given the way they were racing, and the times they ran, hardly anyone has the extra gear, including Farah, in those circumstances. Great race by both Farah and Kipchoge (and the others). Farah ran a great race with a bold strategy -- the fastest 2 mile of his career, and beat a group of outstanding runners, but got beat by one of the other great distance runners of the past decade (E Kipchoge), a guy who has five medals from OG, WC, WIC competitions, not to mention several other top 5 or 6 finishes in championships (including WXC, w a WJXC gold, iirc) -- he has sub-7:30, sub-12:50, sub-26:50 credentials. I think he is superior to Farah at the short end of their range (eg, 3k). Farah has a slightly faster 10k PB, but Kipchoge has faster at 3k & 5k, and is much more experienced at a wider range of distances. Guys like that tend to win a lot. I think Farah raced him well, and in many circumstances such a strategy would work; certainly worth trying in Birmingham -- nothing at stake there.
Tariku Bekele has run 7:28.70. Farah has not run close to sub 7:30 yet as far as I know, though I think he is capable. But he certainly can't assume that his kicking strategy will work the same at 3k as the longer distances especially given that he went out so fast and led much of the way, which is contrary to the way he won most races last year.
Rupp's run is pretty impressive to me considering he ran solo for most of the second half of the race, was not 100% (cold) and did not have competitors to fight against that would have helped cut extra seconds and/or tenths of seconds at the end. I am starting to believe he might be capable of joining that club, if he makes an effort to try.
Smoke wrote:Gh he shut down to 9.74 in the heats, and followed with 9.78 in the final. FYI
Smoke is absolutely correct gh. The time in the Final was quicker when adjusted for wind conditions, but Asafa did run the 9.74 WR in the heat.
At the end of the day the assumption that he doesn't perform when there is more than one round is flwaed. There are tons of meets where the 100 is run with heats and finals, not just championships.
I agree with Master Po that some perspective is needed on Mo's 2 miler. Last year, at a more advanced stage of his preparation (early March) Mo struggled to beat Abrahimov at the Euro indoors. Abrahimov is a promising runner but no Kipchoge. I thought the guts shown by Mo in getting back up to 2nd after looking a well beaten 4th, was typical.
I'd presonally prefer that he skipped Istanbul, not because he hasn't got a great chance but more because the trans-Atlantic flights disrupt training, are tiring and greatly increase the chances of picking up a cold.
Whilst on the subject of Mo, I think the greatest danger to him now other than a resurgent Bekele is himself. He runs every race eyeballs out and talks as if he is constantly looking to up his training. I hope Salazar is the right man to rein him in on occasions and tell him to take it easy.
John G wrote:I agree with Master Po that some perspective is needed on Mo's 2 miler. Last year, at a more advanced stage of his preparation (early March) Mo struggled to beat Abrahimov at the Euro indoors. Abrahimov is a promising runner but no Kipchoge. I thought the guts shown by Mo in getting back up to 2nd after looking a well beaten 4th, was typical.
And for someone who supposedly had nothing in his legs, Farah still covered the last mile in 4:02.5.
Smoke wrote:Gh he shut down to 9.74 in the heats, and followed with 9.78 in the final. FYI
Smoke is absolutely correct gh. The time in the Final was quicker when adjusted for wind conditions, but Asafa did run the 9.74 WR in the heat.
At the end of the day the assumption that he doesn't perform when there is more than one round is flwaed. There are tons of meets where the 100 is run with heats and finals, not just championships.
Ok it's flawed based on this one performance that is provided. But i have yet to see Powell run a 9.7 against Gay, Blake (even though their rivalry just began) or Bolt. There is a problem if a consistently 9.7 guy can't run a 9.7 against these 3 athletes. That raises red flags in my opinion.
Smoke wrote:Gh he shut down to 9.74 in the heats, and followed with 9.78 in the final. FYI
Smoke is absolutely correct gh. The time in the Final was quicker when adjusted for wind conditions, but Asafa did run the 9.74 WR in the heat.
At the end of the day the assumption that he doesn't perform when there is more than one round is flwaed. There are tons of meets where the 100 is run with heats and finals, not just championships.
Ok it's flawed based on this one performance that is provided. But i have yet to see Powell run a 9.7 against Gay, Blake (even though their rivalry just began) or Bolt. There is a problem if a consistently 9.7 guy can't run a 9.7 against these 3 athletes. That raises red flags in my opinion.
Huh? how is that even relevant? 9.7 is not that easy of a time to reach no matter how many times Powell Bolt, Gay has run it (Powell actually has 8 sub 9.8's while Bolt and Gay are at 7 FWIW). And your questioning him because he cant run fast and win consistently against the 2 fastest men in history?
Also its not only that one performance, there are many meets during the season where the athletes run prelims and finals in the 100m dash.
I don't think it's a punk out.... he was beaten by Lerone Carke and Nesta Carter in the 60m in Birmingham so he was not selected by the JAAA to represent Jamaica. At best he could go to the World Indoors as an alternate and hope that Carter or Clarke pulls out of the meet. Powell is technically the 3rd fastest Jamaican in the 60m this season.
Ok it's flawed based on this one performance that is provided. But i have yet to see Powell run a 9.7 against Gay, Blake (even though their rivalry just began) or Bolt. There is a problem if a consistently 9.7 guy can't run a 9.7 against these 3 athletes. That raises red flags in my opinion.[/quote] Huh? how is that even relevant? 9.7 is not that easy of a time to reach no matter how many times Powell Bolt, Gay has run it (Powell actually has 8 sub 9.8's while Bolt and Gay are at 7 FWIW). And your questioning him because he cant run fast and win consistently against the 2 fastest men in history?
Also its not only that one performance, there are many meets during the season where the athletes run prelims and finals in the 100m dash.[/quote]
Look i don't care what u say because history has shown me dat he doesn't perform at his best @ championships period. He is a great one off runner (with no Bolt, gay or blake). Period. If he runs a 9.7 against Bolt in Rome, i'll shut my mouth, even if he loses because i know he did his best. That's all i am saying. He does not runs his best against these athletes.
chuku69 wrote:Look i don't care what u say because history has shown me dat he doesn't perform at his best @ championships period. He is a great one off runner (with no Bolt, gay or blake). Period. If he runs a 9.7 against Bolt in Rome, i'll shut my mouth, even if he loses because i know he did his best. That's all i am saying. He does not runs his best against these athletes.
That's great to know, but why are you bringing Bolt, Gay and the yet to even run 9.7 Blake into conversation. I was simply commenting on the fact that Powell has shown that he is capable of running fast after rounds outside of the worlds and olympics.
Probability theory (or actually, the application of probability theory) would help you determine if the lack of a 9.7 in that subset of races mentioned is indicative of the normal random draws we typically see or a real pattern. Complicating your case is the supposed slowing down when passed 'habit' of AP; this would bias the statistics in those races with the other top guys. So far, you have some indications of an argument, but it is not quite complete (it is complete enough that I think that there is a better than 50/50 chance you are right, but not too much better than that).
However, this line of discussion is just that, a line of discussion that has useful content, as compared to the repeating of a straight assertion on some other points that you seemed to be doing elsewhere.
The statistics problem is actually one that requires a fair bit of work, and it is about a question that I do not care about that much right now, so I will not attack it.
26mi235 wrote:Probability theory (or actually, the application of probability theory) would help you determine if the lack of a 9.7 in that subset of races mentioned is indicative of the normal random draws we typically see or a real pattern. Complicating your case is the supposed slowing down when passed 'habit' of AP; this would bias the statistics in those races with the other top guys. So far, you have some indications of an argument, but it is not quite complete (it is complete enough that I think that there is a better than 50/50 chance you are right, but not too much better than that).
However, this line of discussion is just that, a line of discussion that has useful content, as compared to the repeating of a straight assertion on some other points that you seemed to be doing elsewhere.
The statistics problem is actually one that requires a fair bit of work, and it is about a question that I do not care about that much right now, so I will not attack it.
U probably right. But my whole point is to prove that he is not a great competitor like a Gay, Bolt or Blake. These guys will run faster when the competition intensifies, while Powell is the opposite. That's all i am saying. He slows down when he sees that he is losing. That's my point. We all know Blake was in 9.7 shape last based on the 2 9.82 ran with no wind. He will definitely run some 9.7's this season and a possible 9.6.
