For all practical purposes, I'd call her No. 7 all-time, with Behmer and John both in there. Neither of their marks (4995, 4897) are WR-acceptable because of the oversized track, but I would posit that the time gained in an 800 at the speed they're running the size of the track means virtually nothing. Particulalry since the Senftenberg track, at 250m, was hardly a monster.
Gabriella wrote:As an aside, head to heads invariably prove to be a let down, but we were treated to a great LA 84 with Tompson vs Hingsen; Paris 03 with Kluft vs Barber; Osaka 07 with Sbrele and Clay. But sometimes the best multi's have been when someone you dont expect comes through to challenge, like Busseman in 96 or Karpov in 03.
Jon wrote:Five more PBs too (8.42, 1.92m, 13.79m, 6.45m, 2:10.60)
If we equate the 8.42 to a 13.4 hurdles, then her heptathlon projection is interesting. Significantly the 200 and JT are her two weakest events and of course not in an indoor pentathlon (she is outside 25 secs for 200m and under 40m in the JT) However, if we assume an improvement in the 200m of roughly 1 sec (too generous?) and take her down to 24.2, and she throws a 40m JT, then she's looking at a score between 6500 and 6600 if she replicates those penthathlon marks. This would put her into a top 5 position outdoors. Anything faster than 24.2 and around 45m, she's pushing towards 6,700.
It's going to be very interesting to see how she fares over those two weaker events, as the JT has proved the undoing of many a great athlete.
However, I want to see her compete outside Russia firstly. Coming from a relatively obscure ranking to world leader, scoring highly at home, is one thing; putting it together at a major championships and being consistent is another, especially as she has two weak events to add for the heptathlon. But, she's obviously a medal candidate for Istanbul.
Just looking at the full results from those Russian champs, I'm going to take them with a wee pinch of salt. Olga Kurban scored 4792 in second place, that's a big PB for her (previous best 4576) and she hasnt shown that form recently. Her breakdown was 8.45, 1.86, 14.68, 6.34, 2:13.44. In third place the young Christina Savitskaya scored a PB of 4590 (8.37, 1.86, 14.61, 6.14, 2:24.60)
I know this is Olympic year and the Russians are skilled in getting their athletes into peak form when it matters, but I'm going to remain a little sceptical here.
The men's winner was Artem Lukyanenko with 6071. There's only one thing to same about him: I think I'm in love. Mump/Flump, can I change my top 20 list?
I love Jess but will be surprised if she finishes her career with a PB within 100 points of Chernova's (who I see as the next 7000 pointer). I reckon Jess will finally nail her LJ in London and pb over 200 and 800 .. .. .. and narrowly lose. If she does sneak a win, it'll be the last time she ever beats Chernova who I think still has so much room for improvement.
However, just wait til K J-T comes of age .. .. .. .. ..
Jess had a good opening day at the UK Indoors. She won the high jump with a first-time clearance at 1.91m (needed three attempts at 1.88m though) which equals her best-ever opener and she set a season's best of 14.09m in the shot. Her series wasn't particularly great but that's probably due to not really competing in events with six throws. Good thing is both performances were ahead of what she achieved at the UK Indoor Champs last year (1.88m and 13.86m).
DecFan wrote:Nevertheless, here are the 7-event PR totals: Chernova - 7053 Ennis - 7037 Fountain - 6950 Dobrynska - 6928 Oeser - 6866 Tyminska - 6721
Following on from this and our discussion around Tyminska as a medal candidate, I quickly tallied up the PR totals of another 5 women who have regularly featured in the top ten over the last few years and added them to the list, in italics:
On paper this suggests that, at their best, Chernova and Ennis would fight for gold and silver with Fountain and Dobrynska fighting for the bronze. Oeser et al would hope that one of those 4 messes up.
Of course, this wont happen in reality, but the PR's do illustrate that there are a few women within striking distance of a medal if at their absolute best and if the leading women falter. Apart from Zelinka they have also either medalled in an outdoor major in heptathlon or the indoor pentathlon.
It's also worth noting that of the women I added, four took a year out recently, either on maternity (Zelinka and Boganova) studying/break (Schwarzkopf) or event switch (Skujyte). 2011 was for most of these women their first full season back at the heptathlon. Even so, Schwarzkopf still PR'ed in the 200m, SP and 100mh in 2011; Bogdanova PR'ed in the JT; Skujyte PR'ed in the 100mh and HJ; Nana Djimou PR'ed in the 200m, 100mh, HJ, SP and JT and Zelinka equalled her (poor) PR in the HJ! With Bolshova showing great pentathlon form thus far she could be looking at 6500+ outdoors. This is not just about Tyminska catching Oeser; other women can.
26mi235 wrote:What about Brianne THEISEN SR 4,555 (pentathlon). She is likely improving at a faster rate than others and has better upside.
I don't see her as a threat at all. That 4555 is a very decent score, but her SP and LJ are just too weak; she threw the shot 12.87 and LJ'ed 5.99 in that pentathlon. Her outdoor bests in those events are 12.62 and 6.00. She will probably beat her LJ best this year, but it's not uncommon for women to have a better indoor SP mark to outdoors. But even if she improved the SP by 1m it would still be mediocre compared to the top women. She'd need a 2m improvement in that event and another 30cm+ in the LJ to challenge..if she were at her best in all her other events. Her JT is a little erratic but in fairness she has really improved her HJ and that is event is very good for her. She has good speed for the 200m.
At present I think she has to be aiming for a top ten finish at best, but that in itself will be very tough; the women listed above will likely finish ahead of her in London, and then there's the possibility of another Russian (Bolshova? Kurban?) the third German (Machtig?) and athlete's like Yosypenko who could also beat her.
Hanna's best 800 is just under 2:13 which would get her to 4770, that would be amazing. I hope she can get to 4772 and push Blonska down to third in the all-time lists, but it seems unlikely and she may not try, preferring to do it in Turkey (bronze at the WI is way bigger than silver at the NC!).
But I kind of agree, you would have thought someone would have beaten it by now. Kluft was fairly close twice but in Madrid she let herself down with a poor SP and in Birmingham her HJ wasn't enough. Belova's WR could have been much higher with a decent SP too. But when you think about it there aren't many women capable of 8.2 or lower in the 60mh, 1.9 in the HJ, 14.5 in the SP, 6.6 in the LJ and 2:12 or faster in the 800m. Ennis seemed the likely candidate, but her LJ isn't good enough. Chernova has over 6.6, but she'd need over 14m in the SP and nearer 1.9 in the HJ, whereas she's 1.86ish at best at the moment.
If Chernova, Ennis, Bolshova and Dobrynska are all in Turkey in the form they've shown this year, I guess this is the best time for a WR if they can push each other.
26mi235 wrote:But typically the 800 ranges from 2:05+ to 2:20+ for better athletes, which is a range of 15 while the top women range from 1.85 to 2.00 or so, which is 15. So, are that that different?
1.85 doesn't equate to 2.20 for example in Daegu 22 women ran faster than 2.20 but only 3 jumped over 1.85 with a best of 1.89
2.20 for the 800m is more like 1.70in HJ if 800m range is 2.05-2.20 then i would put the HJ range from 1.70 -1.96 which is a difference 338 points 800 is only 195 points
I'm not 100% sure what my point is !! only that 1cm doesn't seem like a fair comparison to 1 sec. Using Daegu as an example again, in the w800m final there were only 4sec (52 points) between 1st and 8th place but in the HJ there were 10cm (130 points), there was more than 4cm between 1st and 4th
Yes, she looked very strong and powerful. Her hurdles were really aggressive and she looks set for a new outdoor PB in that event.
I agreed with Denise Lewis's commentary that it's great to see Jess back in the 1.9's as she was in the UK champs last week and the only negative point with the Bham Grand Prix performances was that her 6.47 came in the 4th round; she needs to get a big jump in earlier. (She started off under 6m and then improved to the 6.2 mark, which would have been a big difference in heptathlon points compared to 6.47) But it showed that 6.19 the other week wasn't representative of her form, which is good news.
In her post race interview with Johnathan Edwards and Lewis, Jess aknowledged the threat from Chernova, Dobrynska and Bolshova; said she was really pleased to be back to 1.9 and was relishing the challenge in Istanbul. Us usual she came across as gracious, sweet and determined. She's such a sweetie you gotta lover her!
Jessica Ennis's 7.87 shows that she's firmly back on track to running 12.6s in the hurdles outdoors, she's back to 1.90s from the off and can go higher in the HJ and closes the gap substantially on Chernova in the LJ as well.
Barring some accident, I can't see how she's going to lose in Istanbul and in my view she's taking firmly the driving seat for London as well.
Maksimava (born 1989) 4616 at the Belarus university champs (8.65 1.86 15.02 5.95 2:15.77), may be too soon for London (though maybe not - remember Sazanovich's improvement in 1996 at the same age) and certainly Istanbul (doubt she will get to go) but a good one for the future.
andyjgt wrote:Maksimava (born 1989) 4616 at the Belarus university champs (8.65 1.86 15.02 5.95 2:15.77), may be too soon for London (though maybe not - remember Sazanovich's improvement in 1996 at the same age) and certainly Istanbul (doubt she will get to go) but a good one for the future.
Istanbul will be tight. The qualifying rules are the 3 best from 2011; the 3 best from 2012 indoors and 2 invited "at the IAAF's discretion".
Ennis and Chernova have confirmed they want to go to Istanbul, but 3rd ranked from 2011 Oeser isnt going. The next is Tyminska. If she accepts, then the top 3 this year \9presuming they all want to go) thus far are Bolshova, Dobrynska and Melnychenko (Kurban scores higher than Melnychenko but there's only 2 per country, and she's the 3rd Russian) If Tyminska does not accept, then presumably Dobrynska is next on the 2011 rankings, so Maksimava could go as that 4616 currently ranks her 5th on the world lists in 2012. So, it's going to come down to whether Tyminska accepts or another woman scores higher between now and the end of the qualifying period. The IAAF still have 2 discretionary places, but I would expect them to favour past pentathlon medalists at world or European level, so Nana Djimou or Fransen may be preferred over Maksimava.
On Maksimava's score, there aren't many women that can jump over 1.86 and throw the shot over 15m!