I've been looking at the results over the last few years and trying to look at who is the likely winner, based on consistency, results, improvement curve etc.

**100mh**

Ennis - Jess's championship 100mh, while great, is stuck around the 12.9-13.0 mark. This is excellent for a heptathlete, but her PB is 12.79. If she could run 12.85 it may only be 15 pts more than 12.95, but she needs to get these extra points across the board.

Chernova - Her hurdling improved immensely last year. 13.32 for a 6'3" woman is superb. This is the one event she has improved on the most and significantly it's the 100mh where heptathletes get the most points. She's already done 8.26 over 60mh this winter (PB of 8.20 from last year) and if she keeps working on this event she could go sub 13.3 which would be brilliant for her.

Dobrynska - She may have only come 5th in Daegu but she was off to a great start after 3 events, scoring a PB of 13.43 in this event. She needs a 13.4 to stay in contention for gold, 13.5 to 13.6 to challenge for medals.

Oeser - A mediocre event for her. She improved to a dubious 13.14 in Ratingen then ran 13.33 in Daegu which was her 2nd best mark ever. This is much better than the 13.5 form she showed previously, but with her height and LJ ability she needs to be running this event much faster if she wants to challenge.

**HJ**

Ennis - She is consistent around the 1.9 mark. Well, was until she had that blip in Daegu and jumped 'only' 1.86. She needs 1.89 at least. The difference between 1.89 and 1.86 is 39 points. But the difference between 1.92 and 1.86 is 78 points. This is her strongest event relatively (though she gets more points in the 100mh) and ideally she wants over 1.9

Chernova - She is consistent around the 1.83 mark now. But this is one of the events where potentially she could make significant improvements. With her height and jumping ability she should be over 1.86. If she did a 13.3 and 1.86 in the first 2 events in London, the gold will be going her way.

Dobrynska - She did 1.83 in Daegu but did 1.86 in Barcelona and was unlucky not to get 1.89 that year. A 1.86 keeps her with a chance of gold; a 1.83 wont be enough.

Oeser - Again, a mediocre event for Oeser. 1.83 has become her level. If she can improve to 1.86 that changes things fairly significantly for her.

**SP**

Ennis - Jess has kept improving steadily in this event and for her frame and height is an excellent putter. She's getting closer to the 15m mark which is superb. Anything over 14.5 is what she needs.

Chernova - She was stuck with very low scores here but has made the most improvement of all the women in this event. Wiith her height and broad shoulders she could well be over 15m in the future. Anything over 14, keeps her in contention though.

Dobrynska - Obviously her coup de grace in Beijing and strongest event, she really needs to get one around 16m if she can. 1m is around 70 pts in this event; it's not event you can score massively in, so if Jess and Chernova are doing 14.5 and 14 respectively, Dobrynska needs 16+

Oeser - This and the 200m are her weak events. Though she has thrown over 14m, in championships she is invariably throw high 13's - simply not enough for a gold medal. She has to improve this event to above her PB (14.29)

**200m**

Ennis - Jess has improved steadily here. She PB'ed in Berlin, in Barcelona and would have in Daegu were it not for the negative wind. She really needs to try and get a sub 23. Chernova is closing in this event and Jess ahs the ability to run faster.

Chernova - Ran Jess close here in Daegu....from an inside lane at that. If she gets a better lane draw and + wind, she can go 23.3. A good event for her.

Dobrynska - The first event that let her down in Daegu (25.35). She is not as fast as the top two so needs as close to 24 secs as possible. A high 24 or 25+ and it's bye bye gold medal. She ran close to 24 in Beijing and Barcelona so can do it.

Oeser - her other weak event. She needs to improve her speed. She is consistently outside 24 secs whereas she really needs to be running inside that.

**LJ**

Ennis - As in the SP, great improvements in this event. If she can squeeze another 10cm in this event and get to 6.60 that would make a big difference. She needs to be as close as possible to Chernova in this event. But anything over 6.5 will be good for her.

Chernova - her killer event, if she gets this event right it will be scary what she can achieve. She's already opened 2012 indoors with a distance Jess has only beaten once before. But she needs to gett his right. 6.61 was a bit of a disappointment in Daegu considering she was in 6.8+ form. She needs to be thinking of way over 6.7 in London.

Dobrynska - The second event that let her down in Daegu (6.18). She jumped 6.56 the year before in Barcelona and of course that 6.63 in Beijing. To really challenge for gold she needs another 6.6, but anything over 6.4 keeps her in the medal hunt.

Oeser - One of her strongest events. She had a bit of a disaster in Daegu just getting 6.28 though, but she can go over 6.6. She needs this if she has any chance of challenging for gold. The likelihood is she will be too far behind by this event, but if not, this is one where she could pull out a good score.

**JT**

Ennis - who knows what went wrong in Daegu. She had progressed nicely to over 46 in 2010 but was below 44 in Gotzis last year than that disastrous 39.95 in Korea. She needs a PB in thsi event; she needs over 46m here. A low 40's throw is not going to be enough.

Chernova - 52.95 in Daegu, she also did 52.00 in Kladno, 50.62 in Talence and 47.07 in Gotzis in 2011. As Dobrynska and Oeser are closing in this event, she ideally needs to be comfortably over 50m here, and to put pressure on Jess.

Dobrynska - A PB of 49.25 in Barcelona, she threw 48.00 in Daegu. She reckons she can go over 50m. If she does it puts Jess under even more pressure.

Oeser - A great 51.30 PB in Daegu. She's improved a lot in this event to make it one of her strongest. With Chernova and Dob, they will put a lot of pressure on Jess here.

**800m**

Ennis - She's improving nicely here and has beaten Chernova in every race they been drawn together. If it comes down to the 800m the tactics will come into play and she would benefit from sitting on Chernova's shoulder and using her superior 200m speed to out kick her, rather than take it out herself.

Chernova - a faster PB than Jess, if it comes down to this event she needs to take it out at 2:06 pace and hopes Jess cant hold on. Would possibly have the benefit of pacing from Bogdanova or anotehr team mate.

Dobrynska - she's gone from being rubbish in this event to be actually very good. She set her PB in Daegu (2:11.34) and with that and her Barcelona run showed that when it comes down to she can run this event. If she happens to be leading by the 800m and one of the big guns takes it out, she could hang on to a 2:10 clocking. But if she's just behind come the 800m then she isnt good enough for a sub 2:10. She needs to be at least 50 pts ahead by the end of event 7 to stand a chance of hanging on.

Oeser - She ran a 2:10.39 PB in Daegu. There is more to come in this event, but will she really be in contention for gold by event 8? If she is, like Dobrynska, she would need at least a 50 pt margin over the top two.