London 2012 hept - update

[Gabriella]

The heptathlon and decathlon are my favourite events in athletics, so when we have a British athlete capable of challenging for medals I'm even more obsessed. From a patriotic perspective though, I am really worried Ennis is not going to win. The assumption is it is going to be an Ennis vs Chernova battle, but I do not think we should discount Dobrynska, especially as she has started the season well in the LJ and is defending champion.

I've been looking at the results over the last few years and trying to look at who is the likely winner, based on consistency, results, improvement curve etc.

100mh
Ennis - Jess's championship 100mh, while great, is stuck around the 12.9-13.0 mark. This is excellent for a heptathlete, but her PB is 12.79. If she could run 12.85 it may only be 15 pts more than 12.95, but she needs to get these extra points across the board.
Chernova - Her hurdling improved immensely last year. 13.32 for a 6'3" woman is superb. This is the one event she has improved on the most and significantly it's the 100mh where heptathletes get the most points. She's already done 8.26 over 60mh this winter (PB of 8.20 from last year) and if she keeps working on this event she could go sub 13.3 which would be brilliant for her.
Dobrynska - She may have only come 5th in Daegu but she was off to a great start after 3 events, scoring a PB of 13.43 in this event. She needs a 13.4 to stay in contention for gold, 13.5 to 13.6 to challenge for medals.
Oeser - A mediocre event for her. She improved to a dubious 13.14 in Ratingen then ran 13.33 in Daegu which was her 2nd best mark ever. This is much better than the 13.5 form she showed previously, but with her height and LJ ability she needs to be running this event much faster if she wants to challenge.

HJ
Ennis - She is consistent around the 1.9 mark. Well, was until she had that blip in Daegu and jumped 'only' 1.86. She needs 1.89 at least. The difference between 1.89 and 1.86 is 39 points. But the difference between 1.92 and 1.86 is 78 points. This is her strongest event relatively (though she gets more points in the 100mh) and ideally she wants over 1.9
Chernova - She is consistent around the 1.83 mark now. But this is one of the events where potentially she could make significant improvements. With her height and jumping ability she should be over 1.86. If she did a 13.3 and 1.86 in the first 2 events in London, the gold will be going her way.
Dobrynska - She did 1.83 in Daegu but did 1.86 in Barcelona and was unlucky not to get 1.89 that year. A 1.86 keeps her with a chance of gold; a 1.83 wont be enough.
Oeser - Again, a mediocre event for Oeser. 1.83 has become her level. If she can improve to 1.86 that changes things fairly significantly for her.

SP
Ennis - Jess has kept improving steadily in this event and for her frame and height is an excellent putter. She's getting closer to the 15m mark which is superb. Anything over 14.5 is what she needs.
Chernova - She was stuck with very low scores here but has made the most improvement of all the women in this event. Wiith her height and broad shoulders she could well be over 15m in the future. Anything over 14, keeps her in contention though.
Dobrynska - Obviously her coup de grace in Beijing and strongest event, she really needs to get one around 16m if she can. 1m is around 70 pts in this event; it's not event you can score massively in, so if Jess and Chernova are doing 14.5 and 14 respectively, Dobrynska needs 16+
Oeser - This and the 200m are her weak events. Though she has thrown over 14m, in championships she is invariably throw high 13's - simply not enough for a gold medal. She has to improve this event to above her PB (14.29)

200m
Ennis - Jess has improved steadily here. She PB'ed in Berlin, in Barcelona and would have in Daegu were it not for the negative wind. She really needs to try and get a sub 23. Chernova is closing in this event and Jess ahs the ability to run faster.
Chernova - Ran Jess close here in Daegu....from an inside lane at that. If she gets a better lane draw and + wind, she can go 23.3. A good event for her.
Dobrynska - The first event that let her down in Daegu (25.35). She is not as fast as the top two so needs as close to 24 secs as possible. A high 24 or 25+ and it's bye bye gold medal. She ran close to 24 in Beijing and Barcelona so can do it.
Oeser - her other weak event. She needs to improve her speed. She is consistently outside 24 secs whereas she really needs to be running inside that.

LJ
Ennis - As in the SP, great improvements in this event. If she can squeeze another 10cm in this event and get to 6.60 that would make a big difference. She needs to be as close as possible to Chernova in this event. But anything over 6.5 will be good for her.
Chernova - her killer event, if she gets this event right it will be scary what she can achieve. She's already opened 2012 indoors with a distance Jess has only beaten once before. But she needs to gett his right. 6.61 was a bit of a disappointment in Daegu considering she was in 6.8+ form. She needs to be thinking of way over 6.7 in London.
Dobrynska - The second event that let her down in Daegu (6.18). She jumped 6.56 the year before in Barcelona and of course that 6.63 in Beijing. To really challenge for gold she needs another 6.6, but anything over 6.4 keeps her in the medal hunt.
Oeser - One of her strongest events. She had a bit of a disaster in Daegu just getting 6.28 though, but she can go over 6.6. She needs this if she has any chance of challenging for gold. The likelihood is she will be too far behind by this event, but if not, this is one where she could pull out a good score.

JT
Ennis - who knows what went wrong in Daegu. She had progressed nicely to over 46 in 2010 but was below 44 in Gotzis last year than that disastrous 39.95 in Korea. She needs a PB in thsi event; she needs over 46m here. A low 40's throw is not going to be enough.
Chernova - 52.95 in Daegu, she also did 52.00 in Kladno, 50.62 in Talence and 47.07 in Gotzis in 2011. As Dobrynska and Oeser are closing in this event, she ideally needs to be comfortably over 50m here, and to put pressure on Jess.
Dobrynska - A PB of 49.25 in Barcelona, she threw 48.00 in Daegu. She reckons she can go over 50m. If she does it puts Jess under even more pressure.
Oeser - A great 51.30 PB in Daegu. She's improved a lot in this event to make it one of her strongest. With Chernova and Dob, they will put a lot of pressure on Jess here.

800m
Ennis - She's improving nicely here and has beaten Chernova in every race they been drawn together. If it comes down to the 800m the tactics will come into play and she would benefit from sitting on Chernova's shoulder and using her superior 200m speed to out kick her, rather than take it out herself.
Chernova - a faster PB than Jess, if it comes down to this event she needs to take it out at 2:06 pace and hopes Jess cant hold on. Would possibly have the benefit of pacing from Bogdanova or anotehr team mate.
Dobrynska - she's gone from being rubbish in this event to be actually very good. She set her PB in Daegu (2:11.34) and with that and her Barcelona run showed that when it comes down to she can run this event. If she happens to be leading by the 800m and one of the big guns takes it out, she could hang on to a 2:10 clocking. But if she's just behind come the 800m then she isnt good enough for a sub 2:10. She needs to be at least 50 pts ahead by the end of event 7 to stand a chance of hanging on.
Oeser - She ran a 2:10.39 PB in Daegu. There is more to come in this event, but will she really be in contention for gold by event 8? If she is, like Dobrynska, she would need at least a 50 pt margin over the top two.

[DoubleRBar]

The gold medal could go to the silver medalist from Beijing. Don't count her out quite yet.

[Fortius19]

Great write-up!!!

I'm hoping/expecting the 'home-field advantage' really works for Jess.

[Gabriella]

8.05 over 60mh and 6.19 LJ for Jess in Sheffield.

Great hurdling, but the LJ is a bit average.

[dunedine]

My own view is that Jessica Ennis will win in London and re-establish herself firmly at the top all things equal, Daegu was an one-off and the only exception to the rule from 2009 on.

She had an uncharacteristic low javelin and also relatively underperformed in the jumps all into one at the same time that the Russian pulled together very much a 'perfect' heptathlon - which hardly ever happens twice.

In terms of competitiveness, Jess has got no equal in the event and will have the crowd behind her all the way which will give her an extra edge. Don't forget that she missed several weeks from late winter into mid spring through injury that may have affected her overall season, which wasn't so consistent as usually is the case.

Though the last four-five years, Chernova has been the more likely to slip up somewhere along the line and her Daegu display doesn't mean that this has changed. She can definitely run faster over 200m and knock a further tenth off her hurdles but I can't see her improve much elsewhere around.

As concerns Ennis, I'm still confident she can dip into the 12.6s in the hurdles, under 23 secs over 200m, up to 6.60m in the LJ and draw back to 1.95 or thereabouts in the HJ - also something around 15m in the shot is a possibiliby and can throw 47, maybe 48m in the javelin.

[DecFan]

The gold medal could go to the silver medalist from Beijing. Don't count her out quite yet.

To fill out Fountain's relative strength in the different events:
100h 12.78 (at the Beijing Olympics)
HJ 1.90
SP 13.81
200 23.21
LJ 6.89 (twice)
JT 48.15
800 2:15.32
Hept 6735

Hyleas is the weakest of the 5 in the 800, at least on paper, so she needs a lead after 6 events if she is going to contend. She has struggled with injuries lately; I have no inside information on how she is doing at present. If healthy she will certainly be in the mix.

[Flumpy]

I still don't understand Jess; Jav in Daegu. I sat and watched her throw 45m in practice but when it came to the proper comp she couldn't get over 40m.

Having said that I don't think that this was where the real damage was done. In order to win she needed to throw a lot further but she's already lost a huge chunk of points in the HJ her best and highest scoring event.

She only jumped 1.86 from a PB of 1.95. 1.91 would have given her 67 more points, 1.93 and she'd have got 93 more.

Going into the Jav she was over 100 points in the lead. A 200 point advantage would have put more pressure on Chernova and less on Jess which could have changed everything.

Basically the lesson is that the HJ is the one event that she can't afford to under perform in.

I'd also agree with dunedine. This is the first time that Chernova has managed to fulfill her potential at a major and the first time that Jess relatively underperformed. We shouldn't just assume that this is how it will be from now on.

[Gabriella]

I think the problem in the JT was she was in the later group to Chernova. She found herself in a situation she was not familiar with; leading the event but vulnerable and knowing she had to throw x meteres because the Russian had thrown a massive distance. She succumbed to pressure.

I agree the HJ had let her down and was key earlier in the competition too.

My worry for Jess is that Chernova can improve significantly in a couple of events still (the SP and HJ) and will have snippets here and there with the other events, while I dont see any massive improvements for Jess, just those snippets here and there. Chernova could add another meter to her SP where Jess wont, and Chernova could go up to 1.89 in the HJ, where her level has been around 1.83. I doubt Jess will be able to add more than 10cm to her LJ (6.60 would still be very good) whereas we know Chernova could land a 6.8.

Chernova knows what she needs to do to win now. I used to think Jess could reach 7000 pts but I dont anymore, whereas I could see Chernova doing this.

The exciting thing about this event is we have the Olympics this year on Jess's home turf, then the Worlds next year on Chernova's turf. Hopefully we'll get two fantastic battles. Oh, and we really can't rule out Dobrynska either yet.

[mump boy]

I think the problem in the JT was she was in the later group to Chernova. She found herself in a situation she was not familiar with; leading the event but vulnerable and knowing she had to throw x meteres because the Russian had thrown a massive distance. She succumbed to pressure.

I agree the HJ had let her down and was key earlier in the competition too.

My worry for Jess is that Chernova can improve significantly in a couple of events still (the SP and HJ) and will have snippets here and there with the other events, while I dont see any massive improvements for Jess, just those snippets here and there. Chernova could add another meter to her SP where Jess wont, and Chernova could go up to 1.89 in the HJ, where her level has been around 1.83. I doubt Jess will be able to add more than 10cm to her LJ (6.60 would still be very good) whereas we know Chernova could land a 6.8.

Chernova knows what she needs to do to win now. I used to think Jess could reach 7000 pts but I dont anymore, whereas I could see Chernova doing this.

The exciting thing about this event is we have the Olympics this year on Jess's home turf, then the Worlds next year on Chernova's turf. Hopefully we'll get two fantastic battles. Oh, and we really can't rule out Dobrynska either yet.

I agree with all of this but i do believe we could get a 12.8 and a 22.9, 2.06 from Jess in a Heptathlon, these wouldn't be massive improvements and i'm not sure what it would mean points wise. I think it's most important that she capitalised on her best (first day events) and hopes the pressure gets to Chernova but i worry that the increased muscle she's out on which has helped in the SP is detrimental in the HJ and the points difference doesn't add up to her advantage

[Flumpy]

I'm not suggesting she can do them all in the same Hep but 12.6, 15m, 23.8, 6.6, 48m and 2.06 are surely not out of the question at some point. The HJ is the only event I don't really see her improving in and a 1.96 wouldn't shock me.

[DecFan]

Note the sum of the PRs for the first six events for these 5 competitors:
Fountain 6062
Ennis 6040
Chernova 6037
Dobrynska 5983
Oeser 5907
If Fountain is healthy, she has as good of a shot as anyone. She may lead going in to the 800.

[Rog]

Jessica Ennis is, together with Mo Farah, the face of athletics/Olympics in the UK and she will get unbelievable support in London. If she can handle the pressure and thrive on the crowd (which I think she has just the right character to do) I think she can pull out the competition of her life.

[Powell]

I agree with Gabi that Chernova still has more upside than Ennis. And her PB is already 57 points better than the Brit's.

And, while obviously not in the same class as the big two, I think Karolina Tymińska is just as much a medal prospect for next year as Oeser. It looks like she's finally become serious about her training and started to work properly on her weak events. In the JT at least, I expect her to gain lots of points compared to what she has done up to now. Her potential in HJ is somewhat limited, I'm afraid, but one extra height compared to Daegu is very doable and even that is going to make a significant difference.

[DecFan]

And, while obviously not in the same class as the big two, I think Karolina Tymińska is just as much a medal prospect for next year as Oeser.

To put Tyminska in the list above: Her PRs for the first 6 events sum to 5685. A 3cm improvement in the HJ and a 2m improvement in the JT would put her at 5760. But note that while Tyminska is the worst HJer and JTer of these 6 (and would still be the worst after those improvements), she has the fastest 800 PR at 2:05.21. If she's close to a medal after the JT, the 800 would be very interesting.

[Powell]

She can improve by a lot more than 2m in JT IMO. She now works with a proper javelin coach, and I don't see why she couldn't be throwing in the 45-46m range this year (I read an interview where she said that was her goal).

[Powell]

Note the sum of the PRs for the first six events for these 5 competitors:
Fountain 6062
Ennis 6040
Chernova 6037
Dobrynska 5983
Oeser 5907
If Fountain is healthy, she has as good of a shot as anyone.

In the six-a-thlon, possibly :P Not sure why you try to ignore the impact of the 800.

[Gabriella]

And, while obviously not in the same class as the big two, I think Karolina Tymińska is just as much a medal prospect for next year as Oeser.

I disagree. Oeser has medalled in the last 3 outdoor major championships (only Ennis has been consistently above her in the majors those years) whereas Tyminska has never medalled in an outdoor majors. Oeser has a handful of heptathlon marks better than Tyminska's PB from last year and the German is just 17pts off 6700, whereas the Pole hasn't reached 6550 yet.

Yes, Tyminska was close behind Oeser in Daegu, but the German had a rotten LJ that cost her valuable points. Just as Tyminska can improve in the HJ and JT (though there just seems some mental block in the HJ..and her lack of height) Oeser too can improve in the SP, HJ and 200m.

For me, at present the 'Big 2' gold medal candidates are Ennis and Chernova, but I would then extend that to the 'Big 4' and include Dobrynska and Oeser as medal candidates. Tyminska sits behind them, along with Nana Djimou, Schwarzkopf, Bogdanova and a couple of others as 'outside medal candidates if the others fcuk up'.

Which brings me onto Decfan's point re Fountain. She has become a bit of a question mark the last few seasons. While her PB's tally up to a big score, her heptatlon's dont reflect that. I do think in some ways she lost Beijing just as much as Dobrynska won it, however since then she has done nothing to prove she can hold form over the full 7 events. I'm going to reserve judgement on her till I've seen her at the US trials. If she shows her 08 form that naturally, she's in the medal hunt. However, I do think Ennis and Chernova will be in 6,800+ form come London, which will be too much for Fountain after her recent injuries. For me, the question mark is still think Dobrynska. Her poor LJ cost her the bronze in Daegu. But as defending champion I think she will raise her game. She's the only other big gun that has been over 6700. She has started off with a good 6.4 LJ already in Ukraine. As my first post points out, she needs to start off with 13.4, 1.86, 16+ and then it's the 200m that's the telltale sign of her form; a 24.2 (or within 1 sec of the big two) then it's ominous for day 2.

I would love for someone else to step up their game; if only Schippers would work on her HJ and JT she could be awesome.

[DecFan]

If Fountain is healthy, she has as good of a shot as anyone.

In the six-a-thlon, possibly :P Not sure why you try to ignore the impact of the 800.

I didn't include the 800 PRs because a) heptathletes virtually never run 800s in open competition and b) often by the time the 800 comes around places are already determined. Thus past 800 performance is not a very good predictor of future performance. Scores after 6 events show who can be in the hunt going in to the 800.

Nevertheless, here are the 7-event PR totals:
Chernova 6037 + 1016 = 7053
Ennis 6040 + 997 = 7037
Fountain 6062 + 888 = 6950
Dobrynska 5983 + 945 = 6928
Oeser 5907 + 959 = 6866
Tyminska 5685 + 1036 = 6721

Gabriella makes good points about Fountain; she hasn't given evidence recently of being able to train and compete injury free. Lacking that evidence, these other women at this early stage all seem more likely to be on the medal stand. But a healthy Fountain would be right there - and, in part because she has a different set of relative strengths in different events, that would add to the excitement of what is already looking to be a great competition.

[Powell]

I would love for someone else to step up their game; if only Schippers would work on her HJ and JT she could be awesome.

Schippers is a very exciting prospect for sure, but will she continue competing in the heptathlon at all? She might just as well settle for being a sprint star.

[dunedine]

Nevertheless, here are the 7-event PR totals:
Chernova 6037 + 1016 = 7053
Ennis 6040 + 997 = 7037

Nevertheless, Ennis has beaten Chernova over 800m every single time out.

[DecFan]

Nevertheless, here are the 7-event PR totals:
Chernova 6037 + 1016 = 7053
Ennis 6040 + 997 = 7037

Nevertheless, Ennis has beaten Chernova over 800m every single time out.

Again: This is why I think looking at PRs through 6 events (and in the dec through 9 events) is more helpful than including the last event. In Daegu, Chernova had to stay close to Ennis; she did not have to beat her in order to win the competition. She did what she had to do, and won. If she had been down by 10 points going in to the 800, each woman would have run the race differently, times would have been different, and quite possibly their PRs would now look quite different. There's no other event in the heptathlon like that.

The bottom line on Ennis and Chernova: These two women are exceptionally close in their capabilities. Whoever leads going in to the 800 will have a big advantage over the other. The athlete who can set PR's in a couple of events and stay within 30 or so points of PR's in the other events will almost certainly win; assuming decent conditions, if either has a single event 100 points or more below PR (as Ennis did in the JT at Daegu), she almost certainly will lose.

[dunedine]

Nevertheless, here are the 7-event PR totals:
Chernova 6037 + 1016 = 7053
Ennis 6040 + 997 = 7037

Nevertheless, Ennis has beaten Chernova over 800m every single time out.

In Daegu, Chernova had to stay close to Ennis; she did not have to beat her in order to win the competition. She did what she had to do, and won. If she had been down by 10 points going in to the 800, each woman would have run the race differently, times would have been different, and quite possibly their PRs would now look quite different.

Personally, I reckon that even if Ennis was a mere point ahead of Chernova going into the 800m in Daevu there wouldn't be a chance that the latter would have finished ahead of the two. Ennis would have gone even 2:04 if she had to.

[Powell]

And, while obviously not in the same class as the big two, I think Karolina Tymińska is just as much a medal prospect for next year as Oeser.

I disagree. Oeser has medalled in the last 3 outdoor major championships (only Ennis has been consistently above her in the majors those years) whereas Tyminska has never medalled in an outdoor majors. Oeser has a handful of heptathlon marks better than Tyminska's PB from last year and the German is just 17pts off 6700, whereas the Pole hasn't reached 6550 yet.

I didn't claim Tymińska has been as good as Oeser in the past (obviously she hasn't), just that I expect her to be as good in 2012. There are signs indicating she's on course to make good progress this year.

[Gabriella]

Tyminska had her best year ever last season, granted. Until we see them both start competing we'll not know who exactly has improved or is in form, but I'd expect Oeser to lift her game too, especially as she has the experience of Beijing behind her, when she wasn't as good, so this is her chance to go for an Olympic medal.

As an aside, head to heads invariably prove to be a let down, but we were treated to a great LA 84 with Tompson vs Hingsen; Paris 03 with Kluft vs Barber; Osaka 07 with Sbrele and Clay. But sometimes the best multi's have been when someone you dont expect comes through to challenge, like Busseman in 96 or Karpov in 03.

However much I love Ennis, I don't want this to be a runaway win, I want to see an epic battle right through to the final event!

[Flumpy]

She might just as well settle for being a sprint star.

Considering the state of the w200m in recent years that event might be a better bet for international honours if she concentrated.

[Powell]

BTW, both Chernova and Ennis confirmed their participation in the WIC. Oeser, who originally planned to compete in Istanbul, has now withdrawn, so it looks like Tymińska will be the third athlete invited on the basis of last year's heptathlon score.

[mump boy]

BTW, both Chernova and Ennis confirmed their participation in the WIC. Oeser, who originally planned to compete in Istanbul, has now withdrawn, so it looks like Tymińska will be the third athlete invited on the basis of last year's heptathlon score.

How does Ennis v Chernova stack up over pentathlon ??

We lose JT which is great news for Jess and 200m which is good news for Tatyana but to a much lesser extent

thinking about it it looks like an easy win for Jess with definite wins in 60h, HJ, SP 50/50 in 800m and a loss in LJ

i'm looking forward to going into the 800m with Jess in a commanding lead and see what tactics chernova uses

[Powell]

Considering the state of the w200m in recent years that event might be a better bet for international honours if she concentrated.

I'm not sure she has a better chance of winning global medals there, but there's certainly more money in the sprints, and I guess it's easier on the body than competing in the multis, too.

How does Ennis v Chernova stack up over pentathlon ??

thinking about it it looks like an easy win for Jess with definite wins in 60h, HJ, SP 50/50 in 800m and a loss in LJ

The 800 is definitely not a 'definite win' for Ennis. But yes, she is certainly the favorite; Chernova will never be as good indoors as she is in the full heptathlon.

[mump boy]

Considering the state of the w200m in recent years that event might be a better bet for international honours if she concentrated.

I'm not sure she has a better chance of winning global medals there, but there's certainly more money in the sprints, and I guess it's easier on the body than competing in the multis, too.

How does Ennis v Chernova stack up over pentathlon ??

thinking about it it looks like an easy win for Jess with definite wins in 60h, HJ, SP 50/50 in 800m and a loss in LJ

The 800 is definitely not a 'definite win' for Ennis. But yes, she is certainly the favorite; Chernova will never be as good indoors as she is in the full heptathlon.

Which is why i said it was 50/50 in the 800m :-S

[Powell]

The 800 is definitely not a 'definite win' for Ennis. But yes, she is certainly the favorite; Chernova will never be as good indoors as she is in the full heptathlon.

Which is why i said it was 50/50 in the 800m :-S

I see now... for some reason I thought the 50/50 referred to the SP - which, BTW, may be true. Chernova has been making good progress and still has a long way to go in this event, as Gabi noted earlier in this thread. In the 800, I see Chernova as the favorite, i.e. if she was just a few points behind Ennis after 4 events, I believe she would be capable of making up the deficit.

[nevetsllim]

I'd agree with that too. Chernova threw a massive PB of 14.54m at the World Indoor Champs in Doha which looked like a bit of an anomaly considering her next best-ever put at the time was below 14m. But she fact she threw an outdoor PB of 14.17m at the World Champs in Daegu shows she looks capable of approaching the 14.50m barrier this season.

I'd probably give Ennis 65/35 in the shot put.

[nevetsllim]

Ennis competes in the 60mH, LJ, HJ and SP at the UK Indoor Champs this weekend and she's going to do the LJ and 60mH at the Birmingham Indoors the week after.

[nevetsllim]

Wow - Ekaterina Bolshova won the Russian Combined Events Champs with 4896! Think it's safe to say she'll improve on her heptathlon PB of 5738 this summer.

[Powell]

Wow - Ekaterina Bolshova won the Russian Combined Events Champs with 4896!

Geez :O Looks like Chernova may not even be Russia's no. 1 contender in Istanbul.

[Jon]

Wow! Five more PBs too (8.42, 1.92m, 13.79m, 6.45m, 2:10.60) and a score that puts her at No.5 on the world all-time list (behind Belova, Kluft, Ennis and Sotherton). Bolshova's PB is now just 41 less than Ennis's.