2011 Tour de France

[Conor Dary]

I think Schleck needs to consider finding another line of work, since he obviously feels that pro bike racing is too dangerous.

Geez, jazz we are agreeing on everything here!

What a couple of days from the wimpo brigade. Farrar, goes ape because his leadout train sucks and Andy Schleck thinks going downhill is too dangerous and going uphill is too hard.

[jazzcyclist]

I think Schleck needs to consider finding another line of work, since he obviously feels that pro bike racing is too dangerous.

Geez, jazz we are agreeing on everything here!

What a couple of days from the wimpo brigade. Farrar, goes ape because his leadout train sucks and Andy Schleck thinks going downhill is too dangerous and going uphill is too hard.

Great minds think alike!

[26mi235]

As for Frank blocking for Andy -- that throws away one of your two guys and would be a mistake at this stage. Besides, Frank is looking to be on as good a form as Andy but has a little less of a jump than his brother.

It's a mistake if their priority is getting both of them on the podium, but not if their goal is to wear yellow in Paris. US Postal probably could have gotten Roberto Heras on the podium in 2002, but at what cost?

It is also a mistake if they think that there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy -- at this point I would say that probability looks higher than 'reasonable'.

Besides, there is the tactical advantage of them being able to play both cards -- they have to chase down both of them at this point.

As far as the racing goes, it will be hard to fully assess what will happen as some riders will be conservative in light of the hard days to come. Also, with Armstrong we got used to winners not having any bad days but in the current world, Andy could have a bad day (e.g., yesterday) but still be good overall. Thus, I would not count Andy out yet. [I also agree with Andy that some of the Tours have been unnecessarily dangerous, especially descents, and the one with the crash yesterday was the same place where Beloki crashed although a number of meters different.]

[jazzcyclist]

It is also a mistake if they think that there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy -- at this point I would say that probability looks higher than 'reasonable'.

I don't understand what you're saying, perhaps you omitted a word or two. Do you think the peleton should be more concerned with Andy or Frank?

Besides, there is the tactical advantage of them being able to play both cards -- they have to chase down both of them at this point.

You're just repeating yourself. I've already acknowledged that there are advantages to this tactic of neither one playing the role of domestique. But I'm trying to point out to you that there are disadvantages also.

I also agree with Andy that some of the Tours have been unnecessarily dangerous, especially descents, and the one with the crash yesterday was the same place where Beloki crashed although a number of meters different.

I didn't see anyone crash at the same place the ended the career of Beloki, who actually crashed due to a rolled tire, he didn't misjudge or overcook a turn. Besides, if Andy hadn't been dropped on the climb, Evans and Contador would have had no reason to drop the hammer on the descent. And let's not forget that Andy got dropped by his own brother on yesterday's descent. Does he think Frank is some reckless daredevil also? Roger Goodell is already in the process of wussifying the NFL. We don't need the UCI to do the same thing to cycling.

[marknhj]

I almost choked on my cornflakes this morning when Paul Sherwen mentioned Bubka's WR in Sestierre and even got both his indoor and outdoor marks right!

[Conor Dary]

I almost choked on my cornflakes this morning when Paul Sherwen mentioned Bubka's WR in Sestierre and even got both his indoor and outdoor marks right!

I had almost the same reaction.

[jazzcyclist]

This is a strange Tour. So far, all of the significant times gains by the pre-race favorites and Voeckler have happened on flat stages and on downhill finish stages, but none on mountain top finish stages. Bike handling and peleton positioning have been more important than VO2 max.

[26mi235]

You said it is a mistake [to have one be a super domestique for the other] if they are trying to get them both on the podium. However, it is also a mistake [to go with only one] if "there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy "

It is also a mistake if they think that there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy -- at this point I would say that probability looks higher than 'reasonable'.

I don't understand what you're saying, perhaps you omitted a word or two. Do you think the peleton should be more concerned with Andy or Frank?

I also agree with Andy that some of the Tours have been unnecessarily dangerous, especially descents, and the one with the crash yesterday was the same place where Beloki crashed although a number of meters different.

I didn't see anyone crash at the same place the ended the career of Beloki, who actually crashed due to a rolled tire, he didn't misjudge or overcook a turn.

Why do you think he rolled that tire? he did so because he overcooked the corner. Phil and Paul commented two separate times as riders went down (one from the breakaway and one later from the Peloton) that it is right where Beloki lost it and you could then see behind the riders the field that Armstrong famously rode across to avoid the crash.


As for the Grand Tours, the riders have been systematically complaining that the Grand Tours have had sections where the course is unnecessarily dangerous. I am a bit surprised that those commenting think that the riders a chicken. I was a relatively successful (Cat III, USCF i.e., amateur) rider where my advantage was in the mountains. I won my category and was top three overall (i.e., Cat I-IV, plus a few pros like Ned Overand) four the times on the time trial race that goes up the MtBaldy course used in the Queen stage of the Tour of California). Those descents have been dangerous and would scare the hell out of me to race down, and riders have balked at racing some of them. Remember that a rider died this year in the Giro. Bike handling is an important skill but when the cost of an error is losing the whole Tour or your racing career or even your life, then it is not a racing element, which should be just a time element. An example of a difficult but not dangerous element was where Voeckler went off into a car park.

As Jazz pointed out crashes have had a (much) bigger role in determining the leaders than VO2 max has. The time that Voeckler lost it (as did others before) slightly just over the top of a climb it was due to a bad spot (oil or something) on the road where you have to curve down to the right -- That is not a riding skill problem that is a route problem. Radio Shake lost three GC contenders to crashes and the other was knock out of contention by two.

The UCI wants to ban radio communication with riders (and have done so at most levels now). One reason is that it makes the race 'more suspenseful' ... because people can crash out when they might otherwise be informed of coming difficulties. The teams and the riders think that there is a safety issue and that the UCI has paid no attention to the riders opinions.

[jazzcyclist]

Why do you think he rolled that tire? he did so because he overcooked the corner. Phil and Paul commented two separate times as riders went down (one from the breakaway and one later from the Peloton) that it is right where Beloki lost it and you could then see behind the riders the field that Armstrong famously rode across to avoid the crash.

26 my friend, who are you trying to b.s.? I've ridden a few bike races myself, I've had plenty of experience with tubulars at the velodrome and I saw every stage of the 2003 Tour.

1) You don't roll tires by overcooking corners, you roll them when the mechanic doesn't glue them to the rim properly. In Beloki's case, either Phil Liggett or Paul Sherwin reported that it was due to insufficient glue and very hot asphault which began to melt, and not only cause the glue to soften up, but also stick to the tire itself. Under normal circumstances, the wheels just go out from under you when you overcook a corner and any kid who has ever ridden a bike knows that. If overcooking a corner caused properly glued on tires to roll, we would have seen it happen many times in this year's Tour.

2) Beloki didn't crash in a corner, he crashed on the straight part of the course. Furthermore, he had no reason to take risks on that descent, since Armstrong, Ullrich and the rest of the Tour contenders were in his group and he wasn't trying to gain time on anyone.

3) If a rider does go down on a dry, oil-free corner because he overcooks it, shame on him. The lesson is "learn to handle your bike better".

As for the Grand Tours, the riders have been systematically complaining that the Grand Tours have had sections where the course is unnecessarily dangerous. I am a bit surprised that those commenting think that the riders a chicken.

I'm not saying the riders are chicken. I'm saying THE rider (Andy) is chicken,

Bike handling is an important skill but when the cost of an error is losing the whole Tour or your racing career or even your life, then it is not a racing element, which should be just a time element. An example of a difficult but not dangerous element was where Voeckler went off into a car park.

To paraphrase Hyman Roth, this is the life they have chosen. Is there anything more spectacular than watching Paolo Savoldelli, a.k.a. the falcon, drop out of the sky like a rock? Either bike handling is to be a part of the sport, or technical descents should be removed from all future courses.

The time that Voeckler lost it (as did others before) slightly just over the top of a climb it was due to a bad spot (oil or something) on the road where you have to curve down to the right -- That is not a riding skill problem that is a route problem.

Agreed.

[26mi235]

3) If a rider does go down on a dry, oil-free corner because he overcooks it, shame on him. The lesson is "learn to handle your bike better".[/list]

There appeared to me to be a patch of the road that was slippery, which is what Phil said (could have been Paul). Several riders looked like they slipped there like they lost traction that they expected to have and the way the bike moved seemed consistent with that. Maybe it was that the front wheel skidded where you would expect the back to go out, but the memory is getting old. Voeckler was able to stay upright against a car in a manner that seemed like a slip recovery. Also, it did not seem like a place people would lose it, so a slip seems more likely that normal.

I may have wasted glue, but I never rolled a tire.

[jazzcyclist]

I may have wasted glue, but I never rolled a tire.

Me neither. By the way, Voeckler had some interesting comments following today's stage:

Honestly, had I done a stage reco', I probably wouldn't have been so close to losing everything. I had watched the downhill of Pra Martino on video but it's not the same. I know that I cannot gain time on the race favourites uphill, so I absolutely wanted to ride downhill at the front. But today, I wanted to go too fast. I went off road three times! On a downhill, if you make a mistake, it's difficult to find the right trajectory afterwards and I still tried but I should have just followed Cadel Evans, not [Alberto] Contador and [Samuel] Sanchez. Technically, I went above my capacities. I didn't take time to think of what I was doing, especially when I ended up in a car park. I closed my eyes, I jumped my front wheel over the sidewalk, I was still on my bike when I re-opened my eyes, so I turned back and I went on racing but my companions were gone.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/voeckle ... e-approach

I can't believe that Voeckler would actually have the nerve to take personal responsibility for losing time on a descent due to his own poor bike handling, recklessness and lack of preparation. Doesn't he know he's supposed to blame the race organizers and commissaires for this?

[jazzcyclist]

This morning, Cadel Evans posed a question: Is this the hardest stage in the history of the Tour de France?

http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2011/0 ... sp_600.jpg

[guru]

Andy Schleck just seriously punked everyone - 3 minutes up heading to the final climb of the day.

[guru]

Andy moves into 2nd overall, taking all but 15 seconds out of Voeckler's lead. Frank Schleck finishes 2nd in stage, moves into 3rd overall. Both looked relatively good at the top, Voelcker was totally spent fighting for the jersey. Contador cracks.

I expect today was just a warmup for Team Schleck to really turn the screws tomorrow on Alpe d'Huez.

By the way, terrific work by Evans leading the chase all the way up the final climb by himself today.

[26mi235]

Andy moves into 2nd overall, taking all but 15 seconds out of Voeckler's lead. Frank Schleck finishes 2nd in stage, moves into 3rd overall. Both looked relatively good at the top, Voelcker was totally spent fighting for the jersey. Contador cracks.

I expect today was just a warmup for Team Schleck to really turn the screws tomorrow on Alpe d'Huez.

By the way, terrific work by Evans leading the chase all the way up the final climb by himself today.

Well so much for thinking AC was the most likely...

Probably down to these for:
Evans, best TT but worked hard today
Andy S: Wow, but will pay a price and not great TT, although did well last year so?
Frank S: Sat in, not great TT, freshest tomorrow
TV: Worked hard again today, will do so tomorrow and not a good TT and has never really been in serious TT business (unless he has been hiding even more this year).

[jeremyp]

Andy did what he had to do, and he looked fantastic. Voelker continues to amaze, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow.

[jazzcyclist]

Andy cracked in the last two kilometers and will likely pay a price tomorrow. Voeckler is the people's champion and I hope he continues to make Phil Liggett eat his words. Assuming Cadel Evans doesn't lose time to either of the Schlecks tomorrow, he has them right where he wants them. It was funny to hear Paul Sherwin and Liggett dance all around the elephant in the room when they kept on saying that they can't remember any GC contender pulling off a successful attack like that so far from the finish in modern Tour history. Haven't they ever heard of Floyd Landis?

[guru]

Andy cracked in the last two kilometers and will likely pay a price tomorrow.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he "cracked". While he did lose around 30 seconds over the final 2K, it's certainly understandable as he was alone out front, while Evans, Frank, and Voelcker all were pushing each other over those final few kilometers. Andy looked fine at the top, as did Frank, while Voelcker looked absolutely fried working to protect the jersey, and of course evans did all the work dragging the chase train to the top..

Evans is in a most precarious position. Does he go with the inevitable Schleck tandem tomorrow and batter his legs for a second straight day? And if he does what do two days of mountain hammering, largely unassisted, do to his time trialing ability Saturday?

There's not much doubt the edge is definitely with Andy, as he will have his brother working with him tomorrow - a man who has won on the Alpe d'Huez before - while both Evans and Voelcker will be largely on their own.

[jazzcyclist]

Andy cracked in the last two kilometers and will likely pay a price tomorrow.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he "cracked". While he did lose around 30 seconds over the final 2K, it's certainly understandable as he was alone out front, while Evans, Frank, and Voelcker all were pushing each other over those final few kilometers. Andy looked fine at the top, as did Frank, while Voelcker looked absolutely fried working to protect the jersey, and of course evans did all the work dragging the chase train to the top.

The only person I saw pushing it in the last few kilometers was Evans. Voeckler, Schleck and the rest of them were just along for the ride. I still say that Andy was in worse shape at the end of the stage than Voeckler because he rode the last kilometer slower than Voeckler did and there's no drafting to speak of when you're riding at 10 m.p.h. in the thin air of the 8600-foot Galibier.

Evans is in a most precarious position. Does he go with the inevitable Schleck tandem tomorrow and batter his legs for a second straight day? And if he does what do two days of mountain hammering, largely unassisted, do to his time trialing ability Saturday?

There's not much doubt the edge is definitely with Andy, as he will have his brother working with him tomorrow - a man who has won on the Alpe d'Huez before - while both Evans and Voelcker will be largely on their own.

Evans only rode at the front of the race for the last 10K at speeds and altitudes at which the drafting would have been minimal. I think you're seriously underestimating the amount of energy that Andy spent today, especially riding on the front or by himself in the valley between the two final climbs at speeds where the drafting advantage is significant. All of his rivals and his brother were protected from the wind by teammates when they rode through the valley.

[guru]

I think you're seriously underestimating the amount of energy that Andy spent today, especially riding on the front or by himself in the valley between the two final climbs at speeds where the drafting advantage is significant. All of his rivals and his brother were protected from the wind by teammates when they rode through the valley.

Andy had Monfort with him throughout the valley and to the base of the Galibier

[jazzcyclist]

I think you're seriously underestimating the amount of energy that Andy spent today, especially riding on the front or by himself in the valley between the two final climbs at speeds where the drafting advantage is significant. All of his rivals and his brother were protected from the wind by teammates when they rode through the valley.

Andy had Monfort with him throughout the valley and to the base of the Galibier

He was working with Monfort and probably doing he lion's share of the work while the others didn't have to work at all. In 11 hours we'll find out how much energy he's got left and this debate will be moot.

[guru]

Well we'll see later today. Things should get cooking in a hurry.

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2011/1900/PROFIL.gif

[bambam]

It was funny to hear Paul Sherwin and Liggett dance all around the elephant in the room when they kept on saying that they can't remember any GC contender pulling off a successful attack like that so far from the finish in modern Tour history. Haven't they ever heard of Floyd Landis?

I was thinking the same thing watching it last nite

[SQUACKEE]

Watching Andy's gamble was one of the most excting moments I have seen in sports in a long time, I am no a bigger fan! If he held 3 min.s it would have been an A but he still gets a B for hanging on. Frank looked really relaxed yesterday, I wouldnt be surprised to see him make some noise today.

If Cadel Evans doesnt make that charge to catch Andy yesterday, who would have??!!! They all looked content to just ride it in!

What will Evans and Andy have left for today? Who wears the yellow jersey tonight? CANT WAIT!

[jazzcyclist]

If Cadel Evans doesnt make that charge to catch Andy yesterday, who would have??!!! They all looked content to just ride it in!

Voeckler is riding in the rarified air that he's never dreamed of and probably decided not to gamble after foolishly throwing away 27 seconds on Wednesday when he tried to be agressive. As it turned out, he was probably smart not to attack since it looks like he barely had enough left in the tank to finish with the contenders anyway. At this point, he's probably just riding for a podium finish, but his problem will come on Saturday, when he will probably be riding the first time-trial of consequence that he has ever ridden in his professional career. He's already admitted that if he had known what kind of Tour he was going to have, he would have trained differently and done reconnaissance like all of the other contenders. It's probably a safe bet that he's never been in a wind tunnel before.

With 45 Frenchmen in the race, I find it baffling that the French seem to take it as an article of faith that a Frenchmen can't win the Tour, sort of like the British attitude about Wimbledon. During the 26 years since Bernard Hinault won the Tour, the race has been won by Americans, Spainiards, a Dane, a German and an Italian, and now Luxembourg, a nation of a half million people has a couple of contenders. What are the possible explanations for the decline of French cycling?

[guru]

Things should get cooking in a hurry.

WOW! Cooking in a hurry indeed! Contador punishing the early climb, dropping all but Andy Schleck, who is settled in on Contador's rear wheel(and I'm sure enjoying the carnage inflicted on Evans and Voeckler). This is going to be fun!

[jazzcyclist]

Things should get cooking in a hurry.

WOW! Cooking in a hurry indeed! Contador punishing the early climb, dropping all but Andy Schleck, who is settled in on Contador's rear wheel(and I'm sure enjoying the carnage inflicted on Evans and Voeckler). This is going to be fun!

Regardless of who ends up mon the podium, Contador, Andy, Evans and Voeckler have proven to the world that they all have the hearts of champions. I was surprised that Frank Schleck cracked so early.

[502CD]

Looks like Evans and Frank may catch back up by the start of Alpe d'Huez. Voeckler appears to be done. He gave it his all.

[guru]

Well, when all was said and done not much decided today. Andy maintained his 57 second advantage over Evans, though i'm sure he would have liked to put several more on him heading into tomorrow. But Schleck should feel pretty good - it's a relatively short TT(26 miles), and he'll know throughout his ride where he is relative to Evans. And as we saw in last year's final TT, Schleck is a solid, if not spectacular, time trialist, hanging within 30 seconds of Tour champion Contador(and beating Evans by over three minutes).

Should be an exciting finish to a great Tour.

[freddie]

And as we saw in last year's final TT, Schleck is a solid, if not spectacular, time trialist, hanging within 30 seconds of Tour champion Contador (and beating Evans by over three minutes).

True, but Evans had suffered a fractured elbow in stage 8 (where he finished the day in yellow). Evans lost more than seven minutes to Schleck on the following mountain stage. He was never a factor after that. That said, I think the final margin will be very, very close. Lemond's record lowest winning margin of eight seconds could be in jeopardy. How good would that be?

[bambam]

What are the possible explanations for the decline of French cycling?

I can think of 4 big ones - LeMond, Indurain, Armstrong, Contador - that's 18 of the 25 TdF wins since Hinault.

[jazzcyclist]

What are the possible explanations for the decline of French cycling?

I can think of 4 big ones - LeMond, Indurain, Armstrong, Contador - that's 18 of the 25 TdF wins since Hinault.

This only takes into account Tour champions and ignores the other seven Tours not won by those four. What about the dearth of French stages winners and podium placers? What about world champions and Giro and Vuelta winners? France hasn't had a Paris-Roubaix winner in 14 years. With 45 riders in this year's Tour, France was the most heavily represented nation in this year's race, but Pierre Roland just won France's first stage today. What gives?

[jeremyp]

Well that was an exciting , if in the end uneventful (as far as place goes) stage. I don't think I've ever been more impressed with athletes as I have with these guys. Day after bloody day they slog up and down mountains through serpentine lines of manic men behaving badly. It reminds me of the Gladiators in the Coliseum! There isn't another sport where the athletes and the fans are so morphed. I keep waiting for one of these morons to knock a leader off his bike and ruin the tour.

[26mi235]

Once the first rush was gone and TV got his equilibrium back he just about held constant the time gaps, whereas you would often see that those gaps would explode in such circumstances.

Contador did himself proud today. I think it was a long-shot gamble - he wanted the win and a chance for a comeback reminiscent of one I would rather not think about -- the aforementioned Landis attack. As for Phil and Paul, I think that their opinion is that it did not happen, since he was DQ'ed. I saw that stage on Amsterdam on a British feed, I think.

The last two days of racing have been non-stop action by the top contenders, not one of the more typical cases of a few attacks and then waiting until the final climb.

Frank just did not have it at the end of this Tour (he is that important 1% below his brother) or they would have been able to play the race today differently.

Ordinarily, I would say that Evans is the favorite, but last year Andy rode one hell of a TT and this one might suit his strengths a bit better and he has probably improved his technical TT skills some since then, as well. Andy has probably spent the most the last couple (or three) days, but Evans had to work very hard too, so that advantage for Evans is not too large.

Cancellara will probably win tomorrow; he finished in the groupetto and did not have too much required work the last several days. It might be close until the latter part of the race, but he will kill them on that downhill section to the finish (the last 15km drop from 593m to 213m). I am guessing that this section is also where Evans will start to build a bigger lead (i.e., I think it will be small until the last 15km and then he will start taking several seconds per kilometer thereafter), probably enough to win.

[jazzcyclist]

Day after bloody day they slog up and down mountains through serpentine lines of manic men behaving badly. It reminds me of the Gladiators in the Coliseum! There isn't another sport where the athletes and the fans are so morphed. I keep waiting for one of these morons to knock a leader off his bike and ruin the tour.

I've only seen that happen once, on Alpe D'Huez in 1999 I believe, but the fans got the rider back on his back and pushed him off so fast that he was still able to win the stage. Lucky for the clown that knocked him down that no harm was done, lest he become the Steve Bartman of France and have to leave Europe. Having been a spectator at Alpe D'Huez in 2001, it's truly amazing that this type of incident doesn't happen more often, especially when you consider the massive amounts of alcohol consumed on that mountain.

By the way, I got to hang out with Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwin on the morning of the race, who happen to be drinking coffee on the street near the finish line by the mobile pressbox a couple of hours before they went on air, and I have to say that they were every bit as likeable as they appear on TV. I was actually kind of surprised at how eager Sherwin was to talk cycling, considering that's all he does on his job all day every day.