7-sided wrote: One more thing (and it's a note of caution): Where did D. Hill come from in '96? Where did S. Fraser come from in 2008? Who prior to the 2009 season saw Jeter at 10.6x? Athletes resurge and sometimes "come from nowhere"; we have to make allowance for THAT athlete who defies expectations, and as of right now, NONE of us has identified that athlete. Who is THAT athlete?
My crazy, wild sub-11 pick for 2011...J. Williams (GBR) (why? because she will have a Lemaitre type schedule for 2011, imo; close to home and/or select competitions w/ big girls)
I submit that the athlete is Alexandria Anderson. Think about it. She was 4th in US champs in '09; ran a blazing 2nd leg at Worlds before the baton mishap (was hurt throughout the '09 European season) Had a major medical issue in '10 and didn't make it all the way back. Now she's healthy again for the first time since June '09. She's run well indoors (7.12) and is known as a closer, not a starter. So when she runs that well in a 60, her 100 is going to be much better than it has been in the past. And much better than 11.01 is not 10.97. It is in the mid 10.80's. And she is consistent when she hits a certain time, so expect her to run in the 10.90 range then break some big one's. Thoughts?
I am 'in between'; if she returns well, I think that 10.97 is conservative for a PR but that 10.8 is a little optimistic given how few reach that level. Since she is still young, 10.8 by 2012 seems more likely, and by then some of the established US stars might be fading, as the 100 is a mean mistress on the body.
I tend not to gravitate toward the ped argument like Gabriella (though he makes some valid points), but I think there are many women who are capable of sub-11. So the possible candidate list could be quite large, but in actuality it is normally just a handful. I think it all comes down to coaching.
One of the things that you will notice is that historically many of the sub-11 women are coached by "pro" coaches (Kersee, Seagrave, Smith, Francis, Braumann, etc) or by college coaches who travel to Europe during the summer. A lot of very talented athletes stall right in that 11.0x area because they don't have a coach who can get them over the 11.00 hump, imo. Also, and this helps to expand the candidate list, for women, age doesn't seem to be an inhibitor. I think the oldest "first time" sub-11 athlete is 10.96! (someone check, I could be wrong) However, the coach of that athlete was ... how shall we say ... extremely dodgy.
Do I think an athlete can "legally" go from 11.3x-11.4 range to sub-11? Unequivocally, Yes! Providing they have the right coach. So, if you want to bet who is most likely to "emerge from nowhere" look for an athlete who has become serious about the sport (Jeter circa fall 2008), and has found an "experienced" coach.
So, to answer a few of the questions. Alex Anderson is so close that it wouldn't be a surprise; she doesn't have to change much, so let's see if Bev can get it done. (now, sub-10.90 and t_speed can never speak ill of Bev again. LOL) LaShauntea Moore scares me precisely because she got injured. Is she doing too much/too little of something that should have kept her healthy? Coaching issue? I hope she does, but for arguments sake (can't pick everyone), I'm saying she won't. I would LOVE to say Torri Edwards, but I have no idea if she is still training.
I'd say it's not an automatic that improving the 60 can improve her overall 100 if the later part of her race suffers as a result of the initial part improving. I still don't know how much you can read into an "altitude" performance as well.
And as I stated in the other thread, it remains to be seen how she'll run beyond the "college season" (i.e. past June and overseas...something she hasn't done well to this point). 7-sided finally got to what I was alluding to as well...part of what puts Alex at a detriment by "not being with a pro coach" is the fact that after USAs, Alex on is on her own for the rest of the summer from the standpoint of Bev not physically being in Europe with her.
I don't see her breaking into the 10.8x's...I still stick by the 10.97...MAYBE 10.95. I think that is more realistic for someone who has never broken 11 seconds with a wind legal time (and to a further extent hasn't run faster than a wind legal 11.18 in almost 20 months). But by all means...if she can dip into the 10.8s I'll gladly eat a full plate of crow. I just don't see that happening this year.
Altitude helps, but the elevation is not that high, and the 60 has a lot of its time run at relatively modest speed modest speed (half the race time to 20m?) and not too much yardage to get that speed increment relative to the 100m where the effect is probably 2.0 - 2.5 times as large.
t_monk wrote:Jeter (I don't think she will make that much of an impact this year mind you)
Since this is repeated in several of the following posts, I will note that she was ranked #1 in both 2009 and 2010. She has beaten more sprinters more consistently than anyone else in the last two years.
Not to mention the 10.64 she dropped. The second fastest of all time.
How can she be omitted from anyone's list? Objectively, I mean.
I was going to mention LaShauntae but I see someone else did. If she builds on last season, she might be going somewhere.
VCB is on a mission to punish some folk (namely her teammates) for 2009. A friendlier schedule makes her double attempt more legitimate than ever.
t_monk wrote:Jeter (I don't think she will make that much of an impact this year mind you)
Since this is repeated in several of the following posts, I will note that she was ranked #1 in both 2009 and 2010. She has beaten more sprinters more consistently than anyone else in the last two years.
Not to mention the 10.64 she dropped, last season. The second fastest of all time.
How can she be omitted from anyone's list? Objectively, I mean.
I was going to mention LaShauntae but I see someone else did. If she builds on last season, she might be going somewhere.
VCB is on a mission to punish some folk (namely her teammates) for 2009. A friendlier schedule makes her double attempt more legitimate than ever.
Jeter's 10.64 was in 2009. Also, last season she didn't make the impact that I expected her to make. Not that I was expecting her to automatically drop a sub-10.70 but I expected her to touch 10.7x more. She seemed very much more vulnerable last year than I recall her looking since her breakthrough the year prior and this indoor season has also done little to alleviate my doubts concerning what she is capable of this year.
It's traditionally been about Sub 11 ONLY...not placing at WCs. I kind of took it that direction inadvertently.
I don't think Carmelita has been left off anyone's Sub 11 list. I think she's a virtual lock there. I think the questions came when trying to sort her into the medal positions for WCs.
With that being said, let's move it back to Sub 11 talk...not medals...we can move that to another thread...that should clear it up. Forgive me for getting it going in another direction.
What is Bev Kearney's 100m coaching PB? Has she ever had a legal sub 11 athlete?
Anderson is a quality athlete with good range from up to 400m and the LJ from her junior days. She is a finisher rather than a starter, I remember seeing her in the 2009 relays and once she opens up, she looks great. If this 60m improvement can get her further up the field then I think she'll get sub 11.
Anderson ran 23.3 in Birmingham Indoors, some way off her 200m indoor PB, however it was her first 200m of the season and perhaps she is focusing on shorter stuff. She is quite slight as well, I think if she had a stronger upper body, she'd get more off the track.
VCB's start and pick up at Millrose Games was good, probably as good as she was last year. If she gets that start in Daegu I think she can win.
t_monk wrote:Jeter's 10.64 was in 2009. Also, last season she didn't make the impact that I expected her to make. Not that I was expecting her to automatically drop a sub-10.70 but I expected her to touch 10.7x more. She seemed very much more vulnerable last year than I recall her looking since her breakthrough the year prior and this indoor season has also done little to alleviate my doubts concerning what she is capable of this year.
Well, 2010 was a non-championship year and if I recall correctly, Bolt did not have a really impressive year but I suspect that you have no moved him so far down the list that you do not even consider him a threat.
This seems overly much like a fit of pique by some posters than it does a realistic reading of the record. She did have a Silver from the one world champ meet, beaten only by VCB and not by that much either (and Jeter's 100m is even more heavily dependent on the last half of the race than VCB's). Saying that you write her off as a prospect success because she was all of a a few inches off the fastest mark of the year borders on fanboi-ism.
t_monk wrote:Jeter's 10.64 was in 2009. Also, last season she didn't make the impact that I expected her to make. Not that I was expecting her to automatically drop a sub-10.70 but I expected her to touch 10.7x more. She seemed very much more vulnerable last year than I recall her looking since her breakthrough the year prior and this indoor season has also done little to alleviate my doubts concerning what she is capable of this year.
I understand, but last season was an off year for a lot of people. For some people intentionally, i.e. Bolt. So, for some of this sub 11 talk, we're falling back to marks from the 09 season.
Remember, Felix was the 100m US champion last year and LaShauntae Moore was 2nd. Out of nowhere. I can't recall who was 3rd but I remember the times weren't all that fast.
Besides Jeter ran pretty fast last season too, easily sub 11 multiple times. When you said Jeter wouldn't make much of an impact, I thought it was a sub 11 reference. If not, my bad.
t_monk wrote: Remember, Felix was the 100m US champion last year and LaShauntae Moore was 2nd. Out of nowhere. I can't recall who was 3rd but I remember the times weren't all that fast.
Madison was 3rd, Barber 4th, Bianca Knight 5th and Anderson 6th. The slower times were the reslu of a strong headwind.
There were some windy Sub 11s in Austin this weekend.
I'm not sure on the legal wind conversions so whoever can provide that I'd be interested to see what the times were "worth."
Event 74 Women 100 Meter Dash Invitational ================================================================ Name Year School Finals ================================================================ Section 1 Wind: 3.2 1 Myers, Marshevet SR Adidas 10.90 2 Anderson, Alexandria Unattached 10.91 3 Young, Jessica SR TCU 11.12 4 Lucas, Porscha Saucony 11.14 5 Ahoure, Murielle API 11.26 6 George, Allison TSM 11.49 7 Clarke, Jessica New Era Spri 11.61
Event 20 Women 100 Meter Dash Univ/Coll ================================================================ Name Year School Finals ================================================================ Section 1 Finals Wind: 2.9 1 Tarmoh, Jeneba JR TXAM 10.94 2 Hackett, Semoy JR LSU 10.98 3 Duncan, Kimberlyn SO LSU 11.07 4 Townsend, Tiffany SR Baylor 11.09 5 Levy, Jura FR South Plains 11.10 6 Riggien, Chastity SR Southern Mis 11.13 7 Duncan, Dominique JR TXAM 11.20 8 Kendrick, Stormy SO Clemson 11.29 9 Bolton, Grecia JR Houston 11.48
I'd say it's safe to say both Myers and Anderson will legally hit Sub 11 this year but it remains to be seen how low they'll go. I think Anderson's best chance is early in the season/prior to the European season. She started extremely well in the race on Saturday, which I believe can be attributed to her extensive indoor season but ultimately was nipped at the line. It'll be interesting to see how her races are managed going forward to prevent her from fading later in the year.
Myers started the race slow and seemed to pace herself off of Anderson before dipping at the line. Good early race from both of the ladies.
Not sure what to make of Tarmoh or Hackett's times.
Approximately 0.01 for every 0.2mps of wind. Thus, 3.2 -> 2.0 is 0.06, and down to 0.0 (basic) is 0.16. Similarly 2.9 to 2.0 is 0.05, and to 0 is 0.15. Of course, basic is a tougher standard than wind-legal maximum, but I concur that MM and AA are on the doorstep; Tarmoh is ahead of where I might have thought and Hackett was not on the same portion of my radar as the other three windy sub-11s here.
texas_speed wrote:Section 1 Wind: 3.2 1 Myers, Marshevet SR Adidas 10.90 2 Anderson, Alexandria Unattached 10.91 3 Young, Jessica SR TCU 11.12 4 Lucas, Porscha Saucony 11.14 5 Ahoure, Murielle API 11.26 6 George, Allison TSM 11.49 7 Clarke, Jessica New Era Spri 11.61
Event 20 Women 100 Meter Dash Univ/Coll
Section 1 Finals Wind: 2.9 1 Tarmoh, Jeneba JR TXAM 10.94 2 Hackett, Semoy JR LSU 10.98 3 Duncan, Kimberlyn SO LSU 11.07 4 Townsend, Tiffany SR Baylor 11.09 5 Levy, Jura FR South Plains 11.10 6 Riggien, Chastity SR Southern Mis 11.13 7 Duncan, Dominique JR TXAM 11.20 Not sure what to make of Tarmoh or Hackett's times.
Myers and Anderson definitely look on par to fulfill my prediction. This is the first year in a while I can't really predict the US WC team from a distant. I can usually narrow it down to the top 3/4 persons or at least a clear favorite for the top 2 spots... but not now... It's definitely a toss up...
I believe that Lee ran at the Texas Relays as well, anyone has any results from that meet?
EDIT: Nevermind, I checked her twitter page and she said she didn't run, she moved it backed to the 16th it seems.
I'll brave a US team guess and say it will be Jeter, Myers and Williams, adding Anderson to the relay pool with Felix if she makes it through all the rounds of the 200 and 400.
Speedster wrote:I'll brave a US team guess and say it will be Jeter, Myers and Williams, adding Anderson to the relay pool with Felix if she makes it through all the rounds of the 200 and 400.
Are Felix and/or Richards doubling at USATF? They both have a bye into the WC, so may choose to just run the 'other' event? Be interesting to see what 100m speed either of those two ladies have with the added strength work they must have done in prep for a double. If too much, does Felix risk her place in the 4x100m, given the depth mentioned above?
Felix has two attributes that make her a good choice for the relay. First, her 100m times are hampered by a slow start, and the relay format diminishes this liability. Second, she is a 200m athlete and as such gets much more practice running hard turns and so is a good candidate for the third leg.
26mi235 wrote:Felix has two attributes that make her a good choice for the relay. First, her 100m times are hampered by a slow start, and the relay format diminishes this liability. Second, she is a 200m athlete and as such gets much more practice running hard turns and so is a good candidate for the third leg.
Agreed - but I was thinking more along the lines of 'might the extra work for the 400m have killed a little speed' - such that if Jeter, Myers, Williams, Lee, Anderson and any others all turn up in close to 11 secs, Felix might struggle to justify herself over one of the other ladies
Secondly - re your comment about Allyson and bend running - interesting - given the 'VCB leg debate' - but I don't recall many cries of 'Allyson should be on 3rd, not 2nd' (which would create a nice little race within a race, were both VCB and Felix to run it) - maybe both USA and JAM have missed tricks here...
jjj: I mentioned those two as pluses -- yes, she has minuses with the 200/400, both in training and in competitive fatigue/timing. As for running the curve, there are a couple other candidates that run curves for a living -- Myers and Lee notable among them, and you only need two curve-runners and AF should not be running the first leg....
Surprise entrant in the sub-11 club this season...
Oludamola Osayomi of Nigeria 10.99 in +1.8w Alexandria Anderson also on the bubble with a new PB of 11.01 in the same race for 2nd.
100 m - Feminino/Women Final por Tempo - 22/05/2011 - Domingo - Manhã - 10:10h
Record Marca/Mark Atleta/Athlete País/Country Local Data/Date WR 10.49 (0.0) Florence G. Joyner USA Indianápolis 16.07.88 MR 11.35 (0.7) Laverne Jones ISV São Paulo 22/05/2008
Temperatura: 18.8 Umidade: 78% Vento: 1,8
Col Nº Atleta/Athlete País/Country Reaç Tempo/Mark 1 15 Oludamola Osayomi NGR , 10.99 2 9 Alexandria Anderson USA , 11.01 3 13 Mikele Barber USA , 11.14 4 12 Tahesia Harrigan Scott IVB , 11.26 5 10 Ana Claudia Lemos Silva BRA , 11.27 6 11 Gloria Asumnu USA , 11.32 7 14 Porscha Lucas USA , 11.46 8 16 Kauiza Moreira Venâncio BRA , 11.71
I know she was stripped of the medal because of methylhexaneamine but that drug has been downgraded on the list of banned substances now for whatever reason. It is now "non-specified" apparently. Am wondering if she simply got a 3 month suspension due to the medical certificates she provided claiming it was from a nasal decongestant or her ban was decreased because the drug was downgraded...
26mi235 wrote:t_monk, glad to see you back posting.
I never left.... I have only chosen to leave one topic... lol. I will allow those in that SAFP - Allyson - Jeter thread to keep underestimating SAFP only to bring it back come NYC race... lol
It wouldn't be prudent if one were not to accept that Shelly certainly by performance [absolutely and relatively] is the one to beat and is looking like the best and hence at this early point; the favourite if she applies herself smartly for the double....and I'm a VCB worshiper who likes seeing an Allyson 200m canter.
This all on the background that Jeter [closest to Shelly in the 1m] was old and has gotten older...not to mentoin VCB who voicably expresses that she has found herself searching for motivation of late.
