Relays Ohuruogu Meadows Dobriskey (England and Twell, hopefully, are capable of pushing towards 4:00) Radcliffe Greene Farah Shakes-Drayton (and perhaps Danvers but not sure what sort of form she'll be in) Ofili Bernard Sayers Rooney Rutherford
Have I missed out anyone glaringly obvious?
Plus I'm sure a few more will crop up over the next fifteen months or so. Eight medals might be a slight stretch but it's still within their capabilities.
She certainly have had problems over the last year, I think.
Also, While there are three good runners in the 1500, is seems almost inconceivable that more than one would medal; the expected number of medals from this group has to be less than 0.5. This is not the only double entry listed (e.g.) 400h. Past history says that either the Big O's medals were flukes or she should be a high probability of a medal. What about UK w4x400, it seems like this has be a subject of some past discussion?
bushop wrote:Who are these "eighteen medal contenders"?
-Ennis can can win gold -Idowu can can win gold -Dia Greene can win gold -Farah can medal; I don't think he will, but he can - so I'll give him one -I give the UK one in the 1500 (Twell, England, Dobriskey). Please note that it's a gift; I honestly don't think it will happen. Fairly confident it won't, actually. -Ofili can medal; she also might not make the final. I'll give one -4x4 men can -4x4 women needs a DQ of USA, JAM or RUS -4x1 men only gets it done with a drop by other teams. -Neither Shakes-Drayton or Danvers will medal; Danvers was lucky to medal in one of the slowest medalling times for a 400h recently. It won't happen again and I sincerely doubt she ever goes faster than she did. -Radcliffe won't medal. I'll stop there before jon comes out with guns a blazin' -I've come to appreciate her, so I hate to say it, but CO won't medal.
So, I do see a pathway to 8+ medals, but I see Van Commenee as wrong. He doesn't have the depth for someone to step up like that; the events where they have bodies in 2012, aside from the HJ, are too elite. Example: If Shakes-Drayton runs 52.90 she might still get 4th!
It is safe to say the home advantage will help some of the above mentioned athletes perform better than usual; I'd never normally predict to many medals for us.
It's so hard to gauge what will happen in over 12 months time; many new faces will appear and many current athletes will get injured. But I'll give it a go
From the original list:
01.) Martyn Bernard (high jump) - Possible candidate. His style of jumping is a bit wild for me and I can imagine the occasion getting to him
02.) Jessica Ennis (heptathlon) - obviously at this stage she is a gold medal candidate. But this automatically makes me worry, because I am a pessimist, and I'm concerned her ankle will mess her preparation. She also needs to be at her best with Dobrynska, Fountain & Chernova queuing up behind her. My paranoia aside, she has to be a favourite though.
03.) Tasha Danvers (400 metres hurdles) - I don't see Danvers medalling or even making the final. I love her to bits and her Beijing run was great, but I do think that was a 'one off'.
04.) Lisa Dobriskey (1500 metres) - medal candidate. She has such a lovely running action and great finish, she just need sto sort her head and tactics out (and hope no more cheats cheat her out of a medal)
05.) Hannah England (1500 metres) - not for me
06.) Mo Farah (5k | 10k) - outside chance of a medal, but I can't really see anyone breaking Africa.
07.) Dai Greene (400 metres hurdles) - As it stands now, yes. However, I expect Americans to dominate this event come 2012.
08.) Phillips Idowu (triple jump) - medal candidate. He'll be a bit 'old for gold' come 2012 and Teddy T will be on fire.
09.) Jenny Meadows (800 metres) - medal candidate. This event is so competitive though and who knows what will come out of Africa in 2011 or 2012, going by the past few years (Semenya; Jelimo; Jepkoskei) Russia may even finally get it right for once.
10.) Christine Ohuruogu (400 metres) - not gold here. She is a great competitor, but she had a lucky lean in 2007 and 2008 was a relatively poor year she was able to take advantage of. Unless she can show me she can run low 49's between now and London I see her as a finalist only with a possible chance at scrapping for bronze, due to home advantage. I so want to be wrong though (imagine if she defended her title - it would be awesome!)
11.) Tiffany Ofili (100 metres hurdles) - I don't know enough about her yet. Finalis maybe? This is one of those events where a number of women can medal. I don't see her getting the same rush as the others as this isn't really her heartfelt home.
12.) Paula Radcliffe (marathon) - no medal. If she gets on the start line and finishes I will be happy.
13.) Martyn Rooney (400 metres) - no way. A great talent that will never fulfill his talent. The 400m has America written all over it. He'd do better to move up to 800m.
14.) Greg Rutherford (long jump) - finalist.
15.) Goldie Sayers (javelin) - finalist.
16.) Perri Shakes-Drayton (400 metres hurdles) - Perris-Shakes is improving nicely and after her Euro bronze and excellent 49.6 relay run I see no reason why she won'yt keep improving and become a force over the next two years, so she gets my nod as a medal candidate. She is such a fighter too.
17.) Stephanie Twell (1500 metres)- finalist.
18.) Mara Yamauchi (marathon) - no medal.
19.) men's 4x400 metres relay - I hope they can medal. We do usually raise our game at home but the depth isn't the same as previous years. But we have to medal in this event on home soil.
20.) women's 4x400 metres relay (with DQs) - Definite medal candidates, regardless of DQ's. We beat Russia in 2007 so why not again? It'll come down to injuries and running order as ever, but with a pool that includes Ohuruogu, Sanders, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton, Okoro, Sotherton, Meadows et al. We just need 4 women in top form.
21.) men's 4x100 metres relay (with DQs) With the young pool of talent we have, why with DQ’s? We can be in the mix here, the guys just need to practice and practice!
22.) ... more? Yes The women’s 4x100m. We have the ability if they get their act together. Outside medal candidates and reliant on 4 women in top form.
Pure indulgent speculation, but if Louise Hazel could sort out her atrocious HJ and SP, she could be adding another 300+ points to her PB and that would take her to being an outside medal chance! She has speed and can jump and I see her improving significantly by 2012. Maybe not to what she could do, but she will be top ten. Finally, if Nicola Sanders ever moved up to 800m who knows what she could do. She’s built like an 800m runner, her running action is like an 800m runner, she’s from a 400mh background she has speed endurance, and she ran that 2:03 PB with a 63 sec first lap, suggesting 2:00 with no specific 800m training! One can only dream though.
Viewed objectively, most of the names listed are very much outside bets. Ennis, Idowu, Green, Ohuruogu and W4x400 are the only people we could view as 'likely' medallists. So many of the people mentioned are at, or very close to, their peak. I'd be inclined to look for athletes aged around 20 / 21 or older athletes held back by injuries, who could make big improvements over the next two years. PSD falls into that category. I would have added Twell but she's going to lose a year. It's also worth looking out for athletes who switch events in the two years before (fully agree with Gabriela's comments about Sanders, by the way).
A few long shots: Laura Weightman 1500 Isobel Pooley HJ (she'll still only be 19 but HJ'ers tend to peak early). Holly Bleasedale PV Niall Brooks 1500 (I know the idea of a GB medallist over 1500 seems fanciful nowadays but he ran faster as a junior than Crammy. Brooks will only be 21 in Aug 2012 but at that age Cram was winning the Euro champs). Nathan Douglas TJ (I know - this is a stretch but the TJ has a habit of throwing up shocks and if he could get back to his 2006 form he'd have an outsider's chance). Baddely or Lancashire at 3000SC England at 3000mSC
If you want some grounds for optimism consider the following: In 1966 David Hemery still hadn't moved up to 400m H In 1986 Mark Rowland was a 1500m runner slower than Baddeley and Lancashire. In 1998 Catherine Merry was 22.7 200m runner with just one promising 400 relay leg to her name. In 2002 Kelly Sotherton had a pb of 5585
I never saw Nicola as an 800m runner...if she can't quite square the pace for 400h or 400m, it just seems as if she would always show "potential" in a 800 (think Nicole Teter). Imo, Nicola is a 48-second 400m runner! That time fights for gold at any championship.
Interesting that neither of you chose Jodie Williams. I chose her in another thread to be the wildcard to break 11.00 in 2011. I don't see her running the 10.7 needed to medal at 100m, but I could see her running sub-22 or 22.0x for 3rd in 2012 (think Felix '04).
John G, I love your criteria for who could, but I think you could raise the 20/21 age limit a bit higher. History tells us that the "re-dedicated" athletes are the one to make the biggest gains. I would say that the 24-28 age range is where we should concentrate. Also, look for a former youth great who may have just finished university study (i.e. Watt-AUS) and is inspired to train privately and not apart of the greater UKA machinery.
Gabs, it's the Olympics! You don't have to be a "homegrown/heartfelt" brit to recognize the importance of what could be a once in a lifetime experience.
Martyn Rooney. Let me first say that I am in agreement that he won't medal, but let me also say I NEVER thought Marc Raquil was medal ability in Paris, either. However, when you consider that 44.3 will nearly always get you bronze...that would be a huge PB and it is within range. Maybe I should reconsider.
Clarifications on relays. w4x100. USA, JAM, BAH, TRI, RUS, UKR, FRA ... stop me if you've heard this one before. m4x100. USA, JAM, TRI, , FRA, JPN ... GBR has been atrocious in developing male (or female) sprinters with more than a year of positive progress. 2012 will not have a single sprinter with the experience of the Devonish, Malcolm squad from '07. Unless the Olympic ban is overturned...
Gabriella wrote:It is safe to say the home advantage will help some... athletes perform better than usual; I'd never normally predict to many medals for us.
7-sided wrote:Gabs, it's the Olympics! You don't have to be a "homegrown/heartfelt" brit to recognize the importance of what could be a once in a lifetime experience.
Iwan Thomas to Sport.co.uk wrote:I got a silver medal [at the Manchester Commonwealth Games 2002]... it was just great to run in front of a home crowd so I can only imagine how great London will be. I honestly think that if an athlete cannot raise their game and get the best out of themselves in London then they never will... pressure is a great thing to get the best out of yourself... you have the athletes who will use the home crowd to their advantage. Pressure is a good thing in sport... I think the pressure should enable them to add an extra 20% to their performance.
20% extra... that would produce a few more contenders... thoughts?
7-sided wrote:I never saw Nicola as an 800m runner...if she can't quite square the pace for 400h or 400m, it just seems as if she would always show "potential" in a 800 (think Nicole Teter). Imo, Nicola is a 48-second 400m runner! That time fights for gold at any championship....
Why is she a 48 sec 400m runner? She has run sub 50 twice and hasn't run faster than 49.6, that's way off 48. I think she had the potential to run faster than her PB, especially as she ran a sub 49 relay leg, but I just cannot see her returning to her 07 form now. In reality I think she was in 49.4 form in 07, but an unnecessarily fast SF and badly timed final saw her run 49.6. But then injuries have crept in. I think she has the potential to run faster but I don’t think she will. She’s too slight and injury prone to be able to take the intense load needed to run sub 49 IMO. Osaka was 4 years ago and she hasn’t broken 50 secs since, so she’s up against it. I hope she does it though! On the 800m, she ran one in the States in March a few years ago and ran 2:03. She jogged the first lap in 63. To then finish with a 60 secs second lap, only really hitting it hard with 200m to go, it shows she could have run a 2:00 with a better paced race. That’s with no 800m preparation or background!
7-sided wrote:Gabs, it's the Olympics! You don't have to be a "homegrown/heartfelt" brit to recognize the importance of what could be a once in a lifetime experience.
But we’re talking about Brit medallists on home soil, the whole point being about that home advantage. I don’t see Ofili gaining any particular advantage because she ultimately doesn’t feel British.
7-sided wrote:Clarifications on relays. w4x100. USA, JAM, BAH, TRI, RUS, UKR, FRA ... stop me if you've heard this one before.
GBR came 4th in Osaka, only 12/100ths off bronze and beat Russia. Don’t forget the home advantage we’re talking about. GBR were in a medal position in Beijing before that bombed out. GBR finished 6th in Berlin (16/100ths behind Russia) Don’t forget the home advantage we’re talking about. 2011 has seen the return to some decent running from Kwakye indoors. We then have Jodie Williams (who will hopefully be in the relay in 2012) To be a medal contender in the women’s 4x1 you need 4 women in 11.2 form. We can do this and have done this. And then, don’t forget the home advantage we’re talking about…stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
7-sided wrote:m4x100. USA, JAM, TRI, , FRA, JPN ... GBR has been atrocious in developing male (or female) sprinters with more than a year of positive progress. 2012 will not have a single sprinter with the experience of the Devonish, Malcolm squad from '07. Unless the Olympic ban is overturned...
I’m with Flmupy here, I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the oldies was on the team! I really hope the selectors don’t do that and invest now in the younger guys; make them practice; invest properly in relay training camps, because we have some great talent. And I do think we don’t actually need one of the experienced guys on there; we just need to nurture the younger ones we have. Devonish will be 36 by 2012, Malcolm 33, so on a serious note unlikely to be on the team, but then again, Galina Malchugina was running on the Russian 4x100 (and medalling) up until she was 36 so it’s possible!
7-sided wrote:Interesting that neither of you chose Jodie Williams. I chose her in another thread to be the wildcard to break 11.00 in 2011. I don't see her running the 10.7 needed to medal at 100m, but I could see her running sub-22 or 22.0x for 3rd in 2012 (think Felix '04).
You're right about Jodie. I guess my hopes are so high for her that I don't want to jinx her. Similarly, our other great junior Katarina Johnson-Thompson (commentators won't like the surname) may well be ready to do something in 2012. Too early for Heptathlon but maybe she'll be ready to go 6.80+ in the Long Jump.
Surprised that there's no love for Maz Okoro so far - already a world finalist, and looks to be firmly coming back from injury - I think she *could* be a 1.56 girl if she sorts a little more endurance and can learn to pace herself. Expecting Jenny to medal 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 is a big ask in an event as diverse as the w800m
With regards to Nicola Sanders, I'm unsure as to her best event - she looks to have potential in about four! I do wonder if the fact that Jenny, Maz and co are so strong has stopped her trying a few more 8s - she'd need to be regularly under 2 mins just to make the team
Would love to see KJT amongst it in the LJ - but think it's going to need 6.90+ to medal
I don't see Jodie breaking 22 secs in the 200m in 2012. The 200m requires a certain strength and endurance and Jodie doesn't have that yet and I don't think she will by next year.
Jodie is significantly faster than Felix over 100m at the same age, but not 200m (at 17, Jodie has run 11.24/22.79 while Felix ran 11.40/22.83)
Felix had a massive improvement the following year to 22.11 aged 18. But she was running the 400m too, running an impressive 52.26. It’s this strength that helped her get knock so much off her PB over 200m. Unless Jodie decides to do some 400’s too, I don’t see her having a similar 0.6 improvement.
In 2004, when Felix was 19 (the same age Jodie will be in 2012) she ran 11.16 & 22.18. Again, she ran 400m too, setting a new PB of 51.83. In 2005 Felix went to 11.05/22.13/51.12. In 2006 Felix went 11.04/22.11. Felix was 22 by the time she broke 22 secs in 2007.
In addition, no woman has broken 22 secs aged 19. Krabbe and Drechsler were both 21, Koch and Ashford were 22. Jodie would be the first teenager to run sub 22 and while she is immensely talented, I don’t think she has the strength for this yet. Don’t forget only 3 women have broken 22 secs since 2000: Felix, VCB and Kerron Stewart!
I can see Jodie getting down to 22.5 in 2012, but I think her preference for the 100m and her lack of 400m running will mean no faster.
bushop wrote:Do you think the Brits in the stadium will support Ofili like one of their own?
Anyone in a GBR vest will be supported IMO - beyond the likes of Paula and Jess, the lack of prime TV exposure means the average punter just doesn't know enough athletes by face, regardless of where they were born. I recall Nicola Sanders saying how some people mistook her and Laura Turner a few years ago
Gabs, I think we both saw the promise for Nicola circa '07...it might not be the case today, but she WAS a sub-49 potential 400m runner and probably WAS a sub-1:58. Why she has been so injured since, I can't say, but if the load for the 400m is injuring her, I can't imagine that the 800m load will be less forgiving. Also, do you really see her beating RSA, KEN, KEN? (which is why the love for Maz Okoro is probably at a murmur; but she should get solid consideration too - so thanks for pointing that out, Jimbo!)
The reason I say she was potentially sub-49 (again circa '07) is by comparing her with Anna Guevara who has a 2:01 PB and probably similar or lesser leg speed. It's all irrelevant, I guess; it was just a feel for the athlete. I guess it could have gone either way.
Your analyses of Jodi is great, but those numbers could also bring you to the conclusion that she COULD replicate Felix's success (at roughly the same age). I think she runs sub-22.5 this year and I agree that she may need some 400's (4x4's) - something that seems to be out of most UK/European coaches playbook for their top sprinters - but there is more than one way to get there. I say she's a medal threat in 2012 at 200m.
w4x1. In 2010 TRI 4th best sprinter was better than GBR's 3rd; BAH has about 6 (100/200)better"; we'll forget about USA and JAM. It's not impossible, but it would be an incredibly inspiring run to win a medal.
m4x1. If Malcolm or Devonish are on the squads, then pray for rain and a host of dropped batons by USA, JAM, TRI and others because it would have meant that UKA developed zero new sprinters - with the Olympics at home!
We will have to agree to disagree about Ofili. She will feel as sufficiently British as any naturalised citizen; she will feel as inspired as any first time Olympian (regardless of country); she will be cheered for by Brit fans as if she were born there. Home soil works and she won't be excluded.
One last thing: I doubt Iwan Thomas' 20% number. Think about how strong the USA team is, yet I don't recall 20% improvement in '96. Take away MJ theatrics and you have...par to sub par performances without Kenny Harrison's bomb. Batten gets silver; Adkins time was within the margin; Torrence silver; CAN 100 and 4x1... The UK media needs to stop trotting out the likes of Cram, Black, Thomas, Holmes, etc to tell athletes what they should do or expect. Just let them prepare and stop ramping up the unnecessary pressure.
7-sided wrote:Gabs, I think we both saw the promise for Nicola circa '07...it might not be the case today, but she WAS a sub-49 potential 400m runner and probably WAS a sub-1:58. Why she has been so injured since, I can't say, but if the load for the 400m is injuring her, I can't imagine that the 800m load will be less forgiving. .
She had promise, absolutely. But I still don't see why you think she was a sub 49 runner? Only two women have run sub 49 (not counting relays) since 2000, Richards-Ross (twice) and Guevera (once). Olympic and World champion Williams-Draling never ran sub 49 and only 9 women all time have run sub 49. Do you think Sanders is in the top 9 of all time?
7-sided wrote: Your analyses of Jodi is great, but those numbers could also bring you to the conclusion that she COULD replicate Felix's success (at roughly the same age). I think she runs sub-22.5 this year and I agree that she may need some 400's (4x4's) -.
I would LOVE you to be right and I wrong, but I just don't see it Comparisons can be superficial because each athlete is individual, but we have to look at how Felix got there; she did 100's/200's and 400's and competed in the best college system in the world with the best athletes. She also has a running action more suited to the longer distances. Jodie is already our best this winter over 60m, which is worrying in some ways. 17 and already number 1 in her home country, she simply will not have the competition she needs to improve as she might if she were in the States. But I do hope you're right!
7-sided wrote: We will have to agree to disagree about Ofili. She will feel as sufficiently British as any naturalised citizen; she will feel as inspired as any first time Olympian (regardless of country); she will be cheered for by Brit fans as if she were born there. Home soil works and she won't be excluded. .
I have no doubt she will be inspired and will supported by home fans. But I stand by my point that she simply will not feel Britsih in the same way athletes born here will. She will not have the same inspiration a home athlete gets. The Big name international stars will get as bigger cheers as any Britsih athlete (Bolt, Felix etc) and I suggest Ofili will feel like any other international, inspired athlete. But she wont feel like a British athlete who has looked forward to competing in a home Olympics all their life. I really do think there is a difference between an athlete being born here and one who has lived overseas during their formative years and who grew up in a different country and culture.
Gabriella, I get your point. I think she will be cheered as much as any Brit, but perhaps won't get Iwan's (ridiculous, IMO) '20%' lift - maybe just 15%
Back to potential contenders, I always thought Farah had a great shot at a medal over the 3000m steeplechase; strong, fast, has a little hurdling experience...doubt he'd try it, though. Helen Clitheroe is another who has now much more potential, following her 8.3x 3000i - smashing her PB. Shame she's going for 5/10km instead - I hope she does at least one 3k s/c this year
Fascinating stuff on this subject but I must say that there are some strange observations.
Thomas was it? quoted and talking about an extra 20% improvement in 2012; absolute gonads!! If Rimmer improved his current best by twenty percent he would run the 800m in 1.23 and bits. !!!!! If he improved by 2% he would run 1.41.8 something. ?????? What should have been said was 1 or 2 percent improvement.
If PSD improves by 2 % she has to run 53.1 not impossible but tough.
Performances at the Olympics/WC by a great majority of athletes will not exceed their PBs anyway. Certainly amongst the top nations.
I believe I have seen the best of the fragile Nicola Sanders,sadly.In my view no medal for CO, who made the most of a purple patch,2006 to 2008. The yanks will bring forth some fine 400m women apart from Felix and Ross-Richards. Maybe McCorory,Hastings, Beard etc.
Gabriellas comments, for me, were largely "spot on" except Item 22, the womens 4x100m. Our women sprinters are at this time are very poor, to put it mildly, and their baton changing is juvenile. Memories a little short about our women sprinters. Unless 3/4 teams foul up exchanges, and our lot don't, there will be no chance of Relay medals. I await the wonders of our young male sprinters; not holding my breath.
As for the support for our athletes in London. They will be naturally supported by those present,many of whom will have little interest in track and field ; but then its all about nationalistic flag waving.! No doubt when the Hammer or Discus etc Finals are taking place they all go for a pee or a burger( Macs of course)
gabs, it's not that I ONLY think Nicola is a sub-49 (a few others are too), the event, in general, is under performing. Regardless of what you believe of 47.60, there is no way that there should not be more 48 runners. Williams-Darling is a case in point, she had a 3-year stint at the elite level where she never ran faster than 22.77 - yet she twice scared 48. Kocembova ran 11.31 in the same year she ran 48.59; Bryzgina's PB of 22.44 propelled her to 5 sub-49 clockings, but you don't see the same commitment to hurt from the women athletes of today (I once read where Lee Evans said the same about the men...). I think the women get stuck on certain barriers 11.0, 51.0 (yes, 51 not 50, unfortunately). To answer your question, do I think she is top 9 of all time? Of course not, I think the bar could have been raised a lot higher where sub-49 doesn't get you in the top-20
Until 1988, iirc, only 2 men in the history of the 400m had broken 44 (about the same as the women under 48); however 20 men had run sub-45 and NOT run sub-44 in that time period. Now unless we're saying the sub-48 is barrier is more akin to the sub-43 barrier which hasn't yet been breached by men, then the women - where only 7 women have run sub-49 but not sub-48 through 2010 - are underperforming. (of course it may not be that cut and dried, but for general arguments sake)
Btw, I also thought that the womens 100m was underperforming so it was a relief to see Jeters 10.6's two seasons ago. I think Fraser, Myers and Stewart may also challenge the 10.6 area too. The athlete who I think most underperformed over the last 15 years...Ionela Tirlea.
**One more thing: minor quibble, but Felix didn't run collegiate track and field. She was signed by Adidas out of high school to be a professional.
There are not a lot of 43s either. So 48s are not that shabby. Look at Felix; she had one absolutely fabulous relay carry of 48.0 or 48.1 that is a sub-49 open quality, but last year as the event #1 was no where near 49.0. I tend to think of the 400 as a bit long for Felix given her high-quality 100s that she gets despite having a mediocre start. SR is another one that is probably better long but also has had a few stellar 100s. For her, I think that we have not seen the best that she might be able to produce but that her affliction may well keep her from reaching that level or even her AR level again.
VCB is another sprinter with great range who is also probably at the 200 but is stronger than the other two at 100. Her recent stunner (at least to me) of a 400 so early shows that she is in great underlying shape early. It might mean that she could be great at 400 since she has thee speed and the power. However, as a short sprinter she is more muscled and would have the extra effort of carrying that over 400m. She might be able to make the top level at 400 but when you are at the top in the 200 and almost at the top in the premier event, the 100, I would see her 400 forays as a path to getting the background for a 100/200 double rather than a move to another event (It also marks her as one of the top all-around sprinters). I have tended to the notion that VCB would hurt her chances in both the 100 and 200 if she tries to double but she may be rectifying the toll a double would take by getting even better base and strength.