All multi-tables wizards (and I know your out there)
Anyone who is in the know...what do you think Tommy Skipper could score in a Decathalon right now? All I know of his marks is a 10.8 auto 100m, a 205 ish Javelin throw, a 21.high 200m and of course 18'3 in the vault. IAAF tables or HS tables, just curious? Informed guesses would be great. The guy seems to have Olympic medal potential in this event as he has already vaulted higher, thrown the jav about as far, and is not to much behind Dan O'Brien in sprinting (and if I remember O'Brien was an animal in the 100m).
The decathlon is 10 events. Not three or four. Kilmartin found that out in trying to break Brigham's HS record. No matter how good you are in a few events, it doesn't make you a great decathlete. Mississippi State's Trey Hardee is a 16'10 pole vaulter, 10.68 in the hundred, and 14.45 over college High Hurdles. He is also a junior this year, but couldn't be at Junior Nationals because he just placed FIFTH at NCAA's. He's far superior at the same age as Kilmartin (7544 international (not junior implements) #3 all time in his first year of the Decathlon). And Hardee LOST to Darion Powell, redshirt freshman from WSU (4th at NCAA's) who competed with a broken bone in his wrist and a jumping foot so sore he limped after every long and High Jump. Kilmartin and Skipper are good, but they will need to step up quite a bit if they want to do well at the next level.
I have to agree with netcoach. Kilmartin and Skipper are both fine athletes, but not at all mature in the decathlon yet. Skipper is such a fine pole vaulter, he might just want to stick with that. Kilmartin has the potential to be a decathlete, but he's got a lot of work ahead of him to upgrade his weak events, especially the throws. Too bed for Kilmartin there isn't such an event as the jumpathlon. As an all-around jumper, he's tops!
I would say about 7700, based on 10.85, 22-6, 44, 6-4, 50.12, 15.30, 17-7, 132-8, 195, 5:00. This is international implements, and assumes that he is healthy--no effect from the thumb. I haven't seen a 400 mark for him but I have seen good times in the 300IH. He looks stronger than Kilmartin and we know he throws the javelin well so I gave him half-way decent marks in the other throws. He may be able to do the 1500 faster than this but I figure anybody can do 5 minutes so I gave him that.
Of course, a young decathlete almost always messes up at leat one event, so deduct one or two hundred points for that factor if you like.
The above is spoken by a true non-decathlete. You give him a lifetime best in the 100, and 44' and 130'+ in the shot and discus? Thats a 52' HS shot put and a 150+ HS discus. I love the way non-throwers think that all you have to do is get strong to throw. If it was that easy Kilmartin would be good at it by now. He's only been practicing the throws since he was 10. There is a lot more to it than strength. Plus even 17'7 in the Pole vault is very iffy since he will do 7 events before that. Before he set the record his best was within inches of that mark. Has he run a hurdle race in the last 4 years? He ran 16.8 last I saw.
Oregon will have him running decathlon's for points probably. But this year they had a 17' vaulter who ran 10.94 at pac-10's and 48.9 in the quarter. He barely scored 7,000.
Why not let him vault and become a 20 footer, than risk the injuries that are common to decathletes because of the different muscles being used and pressures on the body.
isnt kilmartin a pretty good disc thrower. and the reason he isnt that good an all around thrower is probably because he is relatively small for a decathlete. i read somewhere that he only weighs 160. i jumped against him a couple of years ago when he was jumping around 16. he doesnt look like the typical decathlete, but he sure sure has the skills to take him all the way.
Skipper has jumped 22'10, thrown 195 (HS) jav, run 10.83a and until his record 18'3, jumped 17'7 1/2 in the pole vault. These would be his best events. I agree with Deca that his throw wouldn't be anywhere near the marks listed. Even a 195 jav if international, would be a lifetime best for him. 7700 would break the American Junior record, and is almost 600 points better than what Kilmartin's best Deca is with international implements. Is he 600 points better than Kilmartin?
It's not so much what Skipper would throw. It's the fact that you have him at or near all his personal PR's. Those were acheived in many different meets over many different competitions. Take his best in every event and add that up (Probably close to your 7700 if you discount the throws a bit and up his other marks to his PR's). Then subtract 350 points, a reasonable factor (try adding up Dan OBriens all time marks. It comes to middle 9500's) That puts him at 7350 about under perfect conditions. That is a great mark. Now try adding up Kilmartins all-time marks and subtracting 350, and you will see how difficult the decathlon really is for even a vet like Donovan.
Kilmartin is in for an difficult transition next year. He scored just over 7400 at US junior nationals, which goes to show he can't translate his exceptional individual events to the decathlon. Also, he's barely throwing 43' (shot), 130' (discus) with the high school implements. He has been training for technique in all the decathlon events since before middle school, and is able to consistently practice them throughout the high school season, something that for most high school athletes is usually inconceivable. With the heavier implements and higher hurdles, he will lose at least 200 points, maybe more, and only be around 7000 points next year. He's been traveling the country on recruiting trips making austentatious claims that teams will be built around him, and alienating everyone with his arrogance. I know because I've talked to many athletes who met him on his trips. Kilmartin is maxed out.