Is Iran at the precipice of a revolution?


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Postby lonewolf » Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:41 pm

I just had a conversation with an Iranian expatriate who has family and sources in Iran and direct TV reception from Iran.
This person does not support either Ahmadinejad or Mosavi and offers the following take on the Iranian situation.
Both candidates, indeed any candidate allowed to run, are only mouthpieces for Khomeini, the real power.
Whereas the 1978-79 revolution deposed unpopular royalty, dumping an unwitting public from the frying pan to the fire, the current flare-up is actually between two factions of the Islamic theocracy fighting for power.
My source had/has live, real time access to the pre and post-election street demonstrations and does not doubt that Ahmadinijad won the election.
What most outsiders do not know or remember is: Mosavi was Prime Minister during the 1979 revolution. He, just as Ahmahdinejad, was instrumental in the US hostage situation and, in fact, was higher placed. Contrary to his talk of freedom and relaxed rule, during his administration Iranians suffered under severe restricitions on dress and public demonstration.
While Ahmahdinejad is not personally popular and makes outrageous statements regarding Israel and the holocaust, he does control the military and has some public support because he is the only Iranian President not to personally profit from his position. Former President Rafsanjani built a worldwide empire. Mosavi is a mullah. He prospered in office and wants back on the gravy train. This is his way of getting there.
The people demonstrating in the streets, although genuinely fed up with non-Islamic restrictons on their life style, were mostly born after the revolution. They have never known the measure of freedom allowed by the Shah but they know about it, want to experience it and are being manipulated by the old guard. Also, the youth believe Iran has a right to nuclear power, despite worldwide distrust of the motives of the mullahs.
So, should it really it matter, to the outside world, who won the Iranian election.? In the opinion of my source, no. All that pre-election talk of change, as elsewhere, was just talk. It will be business as usual.
The only way for Iran to return to the modern world community is to oust the mullahs who impose their personal, medieval, non-Islamic prejudices on the people.
There is the rare mullah who will speak up for separation of church and state. Unfortunately, they are all in Evin Prison.
Last edited by lonewolf on Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:49 pm

rasb wrote:The leaders are trying to blame the USA, when I think the Americans are showing tremendous restraint, and probably trying to restrain some of the hawks in Israel at the same time.

The Iranians know that even the most cosmopolitan among us have a bit of nationalism in us. Do you remember how people in this country reacted after 9/11? No one dared criticize Bush. Al Gore gushed about how proud he was to have Bush as his President, Louis Farrakhan called on all of his followers to support the President as he leads us into war and even in Hollywood, all Bush jokes and criticism were verboten at the Oscars. If Israel were to attack Iran, all of the protesters you see in the streets would overnight become Ahmadinejad and Khamenei supporters.
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Postby lonewolf » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:01 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:[If Israel were to attack Iran, all of the protesters you see in the streets would overnight become Ahmadinejad and Khamenei supporters.

That is true. Iran is a highly nationalistic country and will unite if attacked. Many/most still consider themselves Persians, with a proud tradition of science and culture.
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:34 pm

lonewolf wrote:I just had a conversation with an Iranian expatriate . . .

Thanks lonewolf - your posts about Iran are much more informative and lucid than your posts about the 2000 election! :P
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Postby rasb » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:37 pm

Thanks, all, for enlightened commentary and insight. My comment regarding possible Israeli hawks was only meant to suggest that there are some of the "right wing" in the country of Israel, that are looking for any excuse to get Iran off the map, before they develop their own nuclear presence.
I am not offering any new perspective on that situation, just observing, and hoping for the best.
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Postby dakota » Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:58 pm

deleted
Last edited by dakota on Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Jun 17, 2009 4:49 pm

dakota,

Some of us would like to read your posts but you have to throw us a paragraph break now and again. Thanks . . .
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Postby bambam » Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:36 pm

Garry must not be online or this thread would be dead several times, and several people would not be posting for awhile. Hey, how 'bout those Red Sox, eh?
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Postby TrackDaddy » Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:41 pm

bad hammy wrote:dakota,

Some of us would like to read your posts but you have to throw us a paragraph break now and again. Thanks . . .


Ha!
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Postby rasb » Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:45 pm

Must be about morning in Iran.... A big day in current World events, I predict...I hope it goes well...
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Postby Friar » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:25 pm

If arson and violence get out of control, are the military willing to use significant force? They did in China, they were not in Romania. Islam is an X-factor that makes things hard to read?

It's amusing the Swiss have been called in to deliver the message that a tacit US, is to blame somehow? Obama is being criticized from the right but he's playing it smart.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:44 am

Friar wrote:Obama is being criticized from the right but he's playing it smart.

The people who are criticizing Obama's handling of the Iran situation tend to be the people who think that all foreign policy consists of is starting wars, making threats, imposing sanctions and making bellicose statements. They would handle our foreign policy the way an eight grader would handle it. During the Presidential debates, Ron Paul tried to talk about what the CIA calls "blowback", and explained that we should do things to reduce our exposure to blowback. Almost on cue, the other Republican contenders began to ridicule him, and Rudy Giuliani even went so far as to say that the U.S. had never done anything in its entire history that would give another country reason to resent it. :shock: I agreed with Colin Powell when he said that when conducting foreign policy, we should always conduct it under the assumption that the folks who are going to be on the receiving end of our actions will always react the same way we would if we were on the receiving end of such actions.
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Postby dal4018 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:10 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Friar wrote:Obama is being criticized from the right but he's playing it smart.

The people who are criticizing Obama's handling of the Iran situation tend to be the people who think that all foreign policy consists of is starting wars, making threats, imposing sanctions and making bellicose statements. They would handle our foreign policy the way an eight grader would handle it. During the Presidential debates, Ron Paul tried to talk about what the CIA calls "blowback", and explained that we should do things to reduce our exposure to blowback. Almost on cue, the other Republican contenders began to ridicule him, and Rudy Giuliani even went so far as to say that the U.S. had never done anything in its entire history that would give another country reason to resent it. :shock: I agreed with Colin Powell when he said that when conducting foreign policy, we should always conduct it under the assumption that the folks who are going to be on the receiving end of our actions will always react the same way we would if we were on the receiving end of such actions.
McCain is even attacking Obama saying that he should state publicly that the elections were a sham.
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Postby Pego » Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:32 am

lonewolf wrote:I just had a conversation with an Iranian expatriate who has family and sources in Iran and direct TV reception from Iran.
This person does not support either Ahmadinejad or Mosavi and offers the following take on the Iranian situation.
Both candidates, indeed any candidate allowed to run, are only mouthpieces for Khomeini, the real power.
Whereas the 1978-79 revolution deposed unpopular royalty, dumping an unwitting public from the frying pan to the fire, the current flare-up is actually between two factions of the Islamic theocracy fighting for power.
My source had/has live, real time access to the pre and post-election street demonstrations and does not doubt that Ahmadinijad won the election.
What most outsiders do not know or remember is: Mosavi was Prime Minister during the 1979 revolution. He, just as Ahmahdinejad, was instrumental in the US hostage situation and, in fact, was higher placed. Contrary to his talk of freedom and relaxed rule, during his administration Iranians suffered under severe restricitions on dress and public demonstration.
While Ahmahdinejad is not personally popular and makes outrageous statements regarding Israel and the holocaust, he does control the military and has some public support because he is the only Iranian President not to personally profit from his position. Former President Rafsanjani built a worldwide empire. Mosavi is a mullah. He prospered in office and wants back on the gravy train. This is his way of getting there.
The people demonstrating in the streets, although genuinely fed up with non-Islamic restrictons on their life style, were mostly born after the revolution. They have never known the measure of freedom allowed by the Shah but they know about it, want to experience it and are being manipulated by the old guard. Also, the youth believe Iran has a right to nuclear power, despite worldwide distrust of the motives of the mullahs.
So, should it really it matter, to the outside world, who won the Iranian election.? In the opinion of my source, no. All that pre-election talk of change, as elsewhere, was just talk. It will be business as usual.
The only way for Iran to return to the modern world community is to oust the mullahs who impose their personal, medieval, non-Islamic prejudices on the people.
There is the rare mullah who will speak up for separation of church and state. Unfortunately, they are all in Evin Prison.


This is how I see it, for all it's worth.

Clergy, primarily Khamenei, is firmly in charge. All depends, which one of the candidates he considers a better choice, will be installed as a PM (his puppet by all standards). Popular anti-islamist revolution is not going to happen in the near future.

BTW, analysis of the political situation by expatriates has been historically inaccurate. Before the Iraq war, we heard a lot of expatriates, how all the country is against Saddam and how they'll all embrace us :shock: . During the Iranian revolution in 1979, the expatriates were talking about which political parties are having the best chance to establish a post-monarchy democracy. Theocracy was hardly mentioned (if at all), until Khomeini triumphantly arrived.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jun 18, 2009 5:54 am

Pego wrote:BTW, analysis of the political situation by expatriates has been historically inaccurate. Before the Iraq war, we heard a lot of expatriates, how all the country is against Saddam and how they'll all embrace us :shock: .

The thing that people tend to overlook is that expatriates very often have ulterior motives, especially when they are two-bit con men like Ahmed Chalabi. You really have to question the intelligence of anyone who took Chalabi's pronouncements at face value.

Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe. - Euripides
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Postby Flumpy » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:00 am

Iran was on the precipise of a revolution but then Michael jackson died and everyone forgot about it :roll:
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Postby lonewolf » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:09 am

It ain't over till its over. The US MSM has been temporarily diverted but MIchael Jackson carries no weight in Iran. ..
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Postby bad hammy » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:28 am

lonewolf wrote:It ain't over till its over. The US MSM has been temporarily diverted but MIchael Jackson carries no weight in Iran. ..

That may be, but I am trying to figure out a reason to get more worked up about what happens in Iran more than what happens in say, Outer Mongolia.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:14 am

The bottom line is that if the Iranians want to free themselves from the yoke of the mullahs, they'll have to do it themselves. I see Iranian expatriates protesting in cities as far away as Los Angeles and I wonder how they imagine that their signs will affect change in Iran. If they're waiting for a knight in shining armor to come in and save the day, they'll be waiting for a long time. Until the masses decide that they're willing to die by the thousands, nothing's going to change, unless of course, inside players like Rafsanjani and Khatami can pull a rabbit out of their turbins.
Last edited by jazzcyclist on Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby lonewolf » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:17 pm

You are right, jazzcyclist, the Iranians have to do it themselves. Any direct outside intervention would be counter-productive.
You may not remember that Iranians demonstrated against the Shah all over the US prior to his overthrow and many did die in confrontation with the Shah's forces. The difference this time is the clerics are ideologically driven and initially were more brutal than the Shah in putting down the revolters.
Eventually, enough of the Shah's men turned against him that he was forced to flee.
There were incidents in the current riots where IRI forces refused to fire on the demonstrators. If the resistance persists the same thing can happen, the tide will turn against the mullahs..
The current regime is deservedly bad mouthing Rahsanjani, trying to discredit hime. Although not personally popular with Iranians, he is powerful enought to use disenchanted Iranians to pull off a coup.
Same with Khatami. Although neither would immediately result in separation of church and state, it could be a step in that direction.
There are powerful clerics currently held as political prisoner for advocating a secular, non-theocratic government. That is what the majority of Iranians want.
The problem is, they do not have the physical forces or economic staying power to bring down this regime.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 03, 2009 4:33 am

Fareed Zakaria summed it up this way:
it has become a naked dictatorship, losing the facade of the Islamic and democratic political ideals that are important to it.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/07/ ... cnnSTCText
The Iranian people were willing to tolerate a theocracy despite the fact that they really wanted a democracy. At least in previous Presidential elections, no one ever accused the regime of miscounting the votes. But now, Khamanei and Ahmadinejad have returned them to dictatorship, and I've read that Khamanei is even maneuvering to have his son succeed him. It took the Iranians 26 years to overthrow their last dictatorship, but I have a hunch that it won't take that long this time. Khamenei obviously never heard the axiom that those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it.
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Postby mrbowie » Sat Jul 04, 2009 6:44 pm

Yes, I believe a revolution has already begun. It will be fueled, as the Iraq war was, by expats that will lie, cajole and do whatever it takes to egg the West into military action. The rationale for the West will be nukes, but the excuse will be democracy. And the Middle East will ride along because they fear Iran as much as we do.
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Postby richxx87 » Sat Jul 04, 2009 7:08 pm

Who would you most like to give a fashion makeover?

Brüno: Ze President of Iran, Ahmadinejad. I love his look – 'taxi driver chic' – but he would look even cuter if he broke it up vit some splashes of colour und simple accessories. Ich have got to admit something. Bruno's got a crush on him. He's SO cute – he's like ze Arab George Clooney! He famously said zat zere are no gay people in Iran, so he must be very sexually frustrated. Ze only nuclear bomb vaiting to go off in Iran is hidden underneath zose grey slacks of his, und Bruno vould like to press ze red button.

http://www.stylelist.com/
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Postby lonewolf » Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:56 pm

To answer the original question in a word, Yes...
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Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Jul 05, 2009 5:39 am

lonewolf wrote:To answer the original question in a word, Yes...

It would appear that Rafsanjani has indeed pulled a rabbit out of his turbin.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31745151/ns ... ork_times/

This news should re-energize the protesters.
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Postby lonewolf » Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:30 pm

Next rumble July 9.
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