Three Election Notes


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Three Election Notes

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 05, 2008 11:15 am

1. The major national polls had the outcome predicted with surprising accuracy

2. Because of #1, the Bradley Effect was repudiated.

3. All future elections will be 'called' at precisely 8pm PST, as it was last night, when the Pacific polls close, and the networks can 'fairly' call it, based on their Pacific polls. .
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Postby EPelle » Wed Nov 05, 2008 11:17 am

A fourth election note: Neither Obama nor McCain are their own persons, but copies (in name) of fathers before them.
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Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 05, 2008 12:40 pm

Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!
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Postby Daisy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 1:00 pm

Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!


And it was? 70%? More?
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Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 05, 2008 1:09 pm

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!

And it was? 70%? More?

Pending final count - 64%
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Postby eldrick » Wed Nov 05, 2008 2:36 pm

Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!


more limited electorate back then ( ?no women & less surviving elderly )

this has got to be most genuine "turnout" since ?pre-civil war
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 2:49 pm

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!

And it was? 70%? More?

Pending final count - 64%

Hard to believe that 36% of those eligible sat this one out . . .
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Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:03 pm

bad hammy wrote:Hard to believe that 36% of those eligible sat this one out . . .

Whom would they have benefited more?

This is why I'm against a Brave New World where everyone can vote on-line, or even worse, are REQUIRED to vote. I don't want the Slackers determining the outcome of an election!
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Postby gm » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:06 pm

Marlow wrote: I don't want the Slackers determining the outcome of an election!


Too late.
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Postby eldrick » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:10 pm

very true

gop slackers cost them...
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:23 pm

Marlow wrote:
bad hammy wrote:Hard to believe that 36% of those eligible sat this one out . . .

Whom would they have benefited more?

This is why I'm against a Brave New World where everyone can vote on-line, or even worse, are REQUIRED to vote. I don't want the Slackers determining the outcome of an election!

I was not suggesting any coercement to get more folks to vote; I am just surprised that in this election over a third of the voters chose not to show up.
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Postby eldrick » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:27 pm

Marlow wrote:or even worse, are REQUIRED to vote


Image
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Postby rasb » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:39 pm

Just a few more election reflections...
I agree that the polls were very accurate. Mostly following the CNN poll of polls, I was able to review the state-by-state predictions, as to colors of red or blue, or still in play, and they were right on in every case.
Maybe we don't need to actually vote anymore :wink:
The holograms on CNN were amazing, and hearing the fellow who worked on the technology explaining it to Wolf Blitzer today, made it all the more amazing. They literally weren't positive it would work, until it worked.
On that other thread, I predicted (with some old-fashioned spit on your finger and test the wind activity) 350-188. Current numbers are 349-163, with 26 votes from North Carolina(15) and Missouri(11) still in the balance. So final count will either be 349-189, 360-178, or 375-163.
Here are the reddest states in order, with the greatest difference of the popular vote in favor of McCain over Obama - Oklahoma, Wyoming, Utah, Alaska, Idaho, Alabama, Arkansas, Lousiana, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Mississippi, West Virginia, Texas. Those are the States with double digit McCain preference. (15)
Here are the bluest states in order, with the greatest difference of the popular vote in favor of Obama over McCain - DC, Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, California, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota. (21)
The other 15 States were almost equally divided between red and blue, and with less than double digit preference.
The exit poll numbers are staggering in terms of demographics, especially in areas such as youth and ethnicity. Here's to the future :)
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Postby SQUACKEE » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:40 am

My state always goes to the Dems, always. This year it was projected 55-35- a landslide, but was even more like 70-30. There was no chance of Connecticuts electorial votes not going to the Dems. Zero.

So why would i stand in a 1 hour line after work and not go running. My vote here is counted but it doesnt count. It really is depressing that i cant make a differance. Maybe we should just have a popular vote?

I would love to live in a battleground state or even one thats kinda close.
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:50 am

SQUACKEE wrote: I would love to live in a battleground state or even one thats kinda close.
Like mine! :D (Fla not NC :wink: )
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Postby SQUACKEE » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:33 am

Marlow wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote: I would love to live in a battleground state or even one thats kinda close.
Like mine! :D (Fla not NC :wink: )


Yes! Except for the gators, fire ants and old lizards. Although there is that fully functional indoor ITA track ya got. :wink:
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:52 am

SQUACKEE wrote:
Marlow wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote: I would love to live in a battleground state or even one thats kinda close.
Like mine! :D (Fla not NC :wink: )

Yes! Except for the . . . old lizards.

Who you callin' an old lizard??!! :evil: :evil: :evil:
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Postby tandfman » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:03 am

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!

And it was? 70%? More?

Pending final count - 64%

Wasn't that about the same percentage as 2004?
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Postby tandfman » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:04 am

SQUACKEE wrote:My state always goes to the Dems, always. This year it was projected 55-35- a landslide, but was even more like 70-30. There was no chance of Connecticuts electorial votes not going to the Dems. Zero.

So why would i stand in a 1 hour line after work and not go running.

State and local elections. They matter too.
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:09 am

tandfman wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!

And it was? 70%? More?

Pending final count - 64%

Wasn't that about the same percentage as 2004?

60.7%
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Postby SQUACKEE » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:11 am

Marlow wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:
Marlow wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote: I would love to live in a battleground state or even one thats kinda close.
Like mine! :D (Fla not NC :wink: )

Yes! Except for the . . . old lizards.

Who you callin' an old lizard??!! :evil: :evil: :evil:


Certainly not you. Your only 2 years older than me and therefore and henceforth .... in your prime. :)
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Postby SQUACKEE » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:12 am

tandfman wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:My state always goes to the Dems, always. This year it was projected 55-35- a landslide, but was even more like 70-30. There was no chance of Connecticuts electorial votes not going to the Dems. Zero.

So why would i stand in a 1 hour line after work and not go running.

State and local elections. They matter too.


Great point, i wasnt even thinking about those. :oops:
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Nov 06, 2008 5:35 am

eldrick wrote:
Marlow wrote:Oh, and highest voter turnout % since 1908!!


more limited electorate back then ( ?no women & less surviving elderly )

this has got to be most genuine "turnout" since ?pre-civil war

I believe turnout is measured as percentage of registered voters, not percentage of eligible voters.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:31 am

It was reported last night that originally, a firework display was scheduled for the conclusion of Obama's speech, but he canceled it at the last minute. Evidently, he's really concerned about people expecting unrealistic things of him, and now is the time to remind people that he doesn't walk on water. I guess that explains the relatively subdued tone of the speech. It must be daunting if he's taken the time to see the images of people all over the world celebrating and crying tears of joy as if he's the Messiah. If I were him, the thought of disappointing billions of people might be more worrisome than the thought of being assassinated.
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:39 am

jazzcyclist wrote: I guess that explains the relatively subdued tone of the speech.


Again - his grandmother had just died.
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Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:15 am

Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: I guess that explains the relatively subdued tone of the speech.


Again - his grandmother had just died.

That may explain the cancellation of the fireworks, but don't you think the speech was written before his grandmohther died?
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:54 am

jazzcyclist wrote:That may explain the cancellation of the fireworks, but don't you think the speech was written before his grandmohther died?

It would have been easy to cut big chunks of rhetoric out to fit his mood.
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Postby dj » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:56 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: I guess that explains the relatively subdued tone of the speech.


Again - his grandmother had just died.

That may explain the cancellation of the fireworks, but don't you think the speech was written before his grandmohther died?


Written, yes. Final re-writes probably inserted within the last hour, and I'd not be surprised if he dropped or added or altered some things on the fly.
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