TFN Board Electoral Vote Over/Under Contest


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TFN Board Electoral Vote Over/Under Contest

Postby bijanc » Wed Oct 29, 2008 12:26 pm

Can a contest be set up to see which poster comes closest to predicting the winning candidate and his electoral college margin?
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Postby dukehjsteve » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:15 pm

The chances of Garry allowing this are slim and none, and Slim just left town.
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Postby JRM » Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:35 pm

Doubtful, but we could probably have a thread going on this board for as long as it lasts.

FYI, here are the current EV predictions as of today (29 Oct):

O 364, M 157, Ties 17
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

O 311, M 142, Toss-up 85
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... ain/?map=5

O 348, M 190
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
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Postby gh » Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:38 pm

dukehjsteve wrote:The chances of Garry allowing this are slim and none, and Slim just left town.


Read the rules: this forum is down & dirty, for a few more days... do as you please on it

(it =Forum, not Board).
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:08 pm

OK, heck, I'll put down the first dime:

Obama - 321
McCain - 217
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Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:26 pm

bad hammy wrote:OK, heck, I'll put down the first dime:

Obama - 321
McCain - 217


Undercut!
O - 320
M - 218
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Postby dukehjsteve » Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:16 pm

I like round #'s:

O 300

M 238
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Postby Mighty Favog » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:15 am

I'm going all-in. 404 to 134. Side bet: Georgia goes Obama.
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Postby JRM » Thu Oct 30, 2008 10:19 am

I say McCain doesn't break 200. I think it would be great if Obama took AZ as well (that may be as likely as GA at this point).
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Postby gm » Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:06 pm

gh wrote:
dukehjsteve wrote:The chances of Garry allowing this are slim and none, and Slim just left town.


Read the rules: this forum is down & dirty, for a few more days... do as you please on it

(it =Forum, not Board).


Oh, ok then.

MSNBC calls it: 1,026 Our Lord and Savior.... -425 That Old Man We Hate
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Postby Daisy » Thu Oct 30, 2008 12:41 pm

gm wrote:MSNBC calls it: 1,026 Our Lord and Savior.... -425 That Old Man We Hate


Fox has it as a statistical tie.
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Postby lonewolf » Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:24 pm

Ok, you heard it here first:
McCain 272
Obama 266

:P :P
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Postby JRM » Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:51 pm

I just read an interesting tidbit: the election could be over shortly after 7pm EST, when the polls close in VA.

If Obama takes the expected states on the east coast (New England, Tri-State, MD+DC), he'll get 117 EVs. Add in the other expected states in the mid-west and west (MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI), and he has 264.

VA would give him 13 EVs. Even if he doesn't win all of ME's EVs, or even NM, it could be a done deal before us west coasters get home from work!
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Postby rasb » Sun Nov 02, 2008 3:25 pm

350 - Obama, 188 - McCain.
And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.
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Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 02, 2008 5:17 pm

Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot! :shock:
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Postby LongTimeSubscriber » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:42 pm

344 - Obama 190 - McCain

I wouldn't be surprised to see one protest electoral vote for Al Gore
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Postby mojo » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:32 pm

rasb wrote:350 - Obama, 188 - McCain.
And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.


I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.

I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever. :oops: 8-)

I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't. :? :?
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Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Nov 03, 2008 6:12 pm

mojo wrote:I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.

I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever. :oops: 8-)

I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't. :? :?

Mojo, check out this picture of Obama talking about his grandmother today. I think it will move you.
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2008-1 ... cjh105.jpg
Last edited by jazzcyclist on Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mojo » Mon Nov 03, 2008 6:43 pm

Thanks for the pic. i hope I am not the only one touched by it. Oh yeah you are all he-mans around here. :wink:

Obama handles everything with such grace and strength. 8-)

Both he and McCain must be exhausted but for Obama to have to deal with on top of everything else. :cry: :cry:


I loved both his books but "Dreams of My Father" where he talks about his grandmother's life and her influence on him was very moving.

I really wish his mother was here as well.
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Postby 26mi235 » Mon Nov 03, 2008 7:59 pm

Marlow wrote:Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot! :shock:


"Narrowing" is hardly happening on the Fox poll and the one by Investors Business Daily, and even these are growing relative to the recent past. One poll showed tightening when a vastly under-sample 18-25 group was filtered (likely voter models) to be 75/25 M/O; about as likely as a regular on this board winning NYC next year.

If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.
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Postby JRM » Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:31 pm

26mi235 wrote:If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.


Aha! Another Nate Silver fan. :)

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ ... inued.html
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