El Guerrouj 5000m?


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El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Wed May 28, 2003 5:45 pm

I have heard that El Guerrouj is having a go at a fast 5km sometime in June. Is this true? Does anyone know when and where?
And do you think he will get anywhere near Gebs mark. His 7.23 3km suggests pretty good potential and did mid 13.40's at world juniors when he was 19 before he really got into it.
What do you think?
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Wed May 28, 2003 5:51 pm

He could probably put up an outstanding time once he's raced the distance a few times, but I don't know if he's capable of 12:40 - 12:45. If real testing of all competitors year round becomes a reality, I'm not sure we'll see anything that fast for awhile. Look at the drop in times after EPO testing was first announced. Then look at how they creeped back down a bit as the test's limits were revealed.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby jake the snake » Wed May 28, 2003 6:19 pm

i'm excited to see him move up in distance and run the 5000 at this point in his career. i don't think he can break the world record but i think he's capable of running around 12:50 this season.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Wed May 28, 2003 6:37 pm

What can i say? This guy is incredible! He is an insane runner.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby carfu » Thu May 29, 2003 12:30 am

El Guerrouj will have a go at 5000m in Ostrava (Czech Republic) on June 12th.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby trackstar » Thu May 29, 2003 4:17 am

Damn, I was hoping it would be Oslo, especially since they aren't having the Dream Mile this year. I'm going to be there, and mighty annoyed that I probably won't get to see him.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby gh » Thu May 29, 2003 5:15 am

Oslo will have a kick-ass 5K field, Ostrava won't, which is why you can expect El G to test the waters in the lesser meet. If he's successful, then perhaps he'll make good on his announced plans to double at the Worlds. We here at T&FN remain skeptical.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 6:27 am

He won't double. There's no way he'd take the chance. He's relatively untested at 5 - though he probably could knock off a sub-13 and I think in the right race he will. But as good as he is, to go through the rounds in both would be unrealistic if he is to have hope in winning either. I'd wager that he'll stick to only the 15 at the worlds.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby gh » Thu May 29, 2003 7:11 am

The El G schedule, as we were told by one good source:

<<His lone invitational 5K will be in Ostrava on June 12; then, he is likely to run a 1500 in Paris (July 4) and a mile in Zürich (August 15). >>

If he does essay a Paris double, this would be his schedule:
8/23--1500h
8/25--1500sf
8/27--1500f
8/28--5000h
8/31--5000f

The key is obviously that 5K heat on 8/28. With the last WC being at "altitude" and the two before that in hot-weather cities (and the one before that in a place where it was unseasonably warm) it's tough to predict what it will take to get out of the heats. Nonetheless, here's what the slowest qualifier ran in recent Worlds:

01--13:36
99--13:37
97--13:31
95--13:32

I think it's safe to guess that you'll have to come close to breaking 13:30 to make the final.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 7:18 am

reports are that Ostrava "non kick-ass field" will feature current IAAF number one Benjamin Limo, and his Kenyan colleagues, double Olympic silver medallist Paul Bitok, and world 10,000m champion, Charles Kamathi. Another top Kenyan, the steeplechase number one Stephen Cherono is in the field, and Ethiopia will be represented by Olympic Champion Million Wolde.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby gh » Thu May 29, 2003 7:37 am

Sorry--i'm just spoiled after too many years of exposure to the sport at its highest levels, like Zürich '97, where 6th place went in 12:56. That's "kicking ass." Ostrava will be a fine international--but pedestrian by Golden League standards--field.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 8:41 am

>The El G schedule, as we were told by one good
>source:

If he does essay a Paris
>double, this would be his
>schedule:
8/23--1500h
8/25--1500sf
8/27--1500f\n>8/28--5000h
8/31--5000f

The key is obviously
>that 5K heat on 8/28. With the last WC being at
>"altitude" and the two before that in
>hot-weather cities (and the one before that in a
>place where it was unseasonably warm) it's tough
>to predict what it will take to get out of the
>heats. Nonetheless, here's what the slowest
>qualifier ran in recent
>Worlds:

01--13:36
99--13:37
97--13:31
95--13
>32

I think it's safe to guess that you'll have
>to come close to breaking 13:30 to make the
>final.

Well, given that schedule maybe he will double. As long as the 15 final is done before the 5 heats what does he have to lose? All he would have to do in the 5 heat would be to stay in contact until the last 400 and let it go - obviously a "slow" tactical race would be ideal for him. Though the Kenyan's probably wouldn't allow a slow race to happen.

If he made it though the prelim he would have plenty of time to get ready for the final. It would be a fun race to watch - if he was in the field the others would be trying every trick in the book to kill him off before the last 800m.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby gh » Thu May 29, 2003 8:51 am

You can bet the Kenyans would be thinking team-tactics against him. My guess on what they might do in the pace department is get all hinky and throw in some nasty surges. We know El G can run fast laps time after time in metronomic fashion, but what happens if somebody pulls an Ngugi?

Remember him at the '88 Olympics in Seoul where after the field had run sometehing like a couple of 65-second laps he jumped up from the back of the pack and threw in something in the 57-58 range. Needless to say, that changed the complexion of that race ina big hurry!
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby trackstar » Thu May 29, 2003 9:33 am

>but what happens if somebody pulls an
>Ngugi?

Or what if somebody pulls an Ngeny? I dispute the idea that all he has to do is trail the leaders and then "let it go in the last 400." He can be outkicked. Failure to take the pace out hard was precisely what cost him in Sydney. I'd say that strategy is far more likely to defeat El G than trying to bust him with a hard pace.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 10:50 am

There's a huge difference between the rabbitted time trial races, and the more tactical nature of OG/WC where rounds exist and paces far more variable.

In the timed events, El G basically knows the rabbit splits, and can just follow at his leisure.

In the OG/WC stuff, he's at the mercy of what the rest of the field has in store, particularly variations in tempo.

Put Geb and El G in a 5k race, and I'd really wonder the tactics we'd see, surely Geb would try to run away from him, wanting something well below 13 pace.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 12:36 pm

I dispute
>the idea that all he has to do is trail the
>leaders and then "let it go in the last 400."
>He can be outkicked. Failure to take the pace out
>hard was precisely what cost him in Sydney. I'd
>say that strategy is far more likely to defeat El
>G than trying to bust him with a hard pace.


I agree he can be outkicked but not by enough guys to miss qualifying for the final of the 5k.

He doesn't have that lightening changeup in the final 100 that some of the greats have had, but he has the best long drive to finish in the history of the 15. When he starts winding it up with 500 to go he is untouchable. And, he has learned from experience that he can't let it come down to the last 100m.

I think his training for this type of mile racing is well suited for the 5. He would have no trouble "jogging" 64s and then ripping a 54 to finish. The finals would be a different story as the surging and blocking strategy of the Kenyan's (and I'm sure the Ethiopian's will have something up their sleeves as well) will come into play.

Is Geb planning on the 5 or just the 10? If Geb is in forrm and runs the 5...wow! That's too much to ask for. I doubt they'd want to run against each other - each at their 2nd best event - but its fun to think about.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby jake the snake » Thu May 29, 2003 2:49 pm

el g really blew me away in that 1500 final at the '99 wc's. that was probably the best piece of 1500 running you'll ever see. if he can transfer that dominance up to the 5000 (which i think he can) then i would want him to just focus on going for the 5k world record and dominating that event on an international level for the next few years.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby sl » Thu May 29, 2003 4:13 pm

>el g really blew me away in that 1500 final at
>the '99 wc's. that was probably the best piece
>of 1500 running you'll ever see.

He did get rabbiting help from countryman Adil El Kaouche through 800, which takes at least some of the luster off the performance. Heckuva race, though.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby carfu » Thu May 29, 2003 4:23 pm

According to recent information from French sports daily L'Equipe, El Guerrouj won't compete in Paris Golden League on July 4th but rather go back and train at altitude in Morocco.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Thu May 29, 2003 4:29 pm

Cool. Cheers. 12th of June thats pretty soon, I am not sure whether i would rather see him in 5km or 1500 at Paris, once he moves up its hard to come back down. Especially given his desire to finally get and Olympic gold in Athens next year.
By the way does anyone know if Daniel Komen is still running?
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby jake the snake » Thu May 29, 2003 7:14 pm

He
>did get rabbiting help from countryman Adil El
>Kaouche through 800, which takes at least some of
>the luster off the performance. Heckuva race,
>though.

good call.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Just A Fan » Thu May 29, 2003 9:48 pm

I think it stands to reason that El G will employ the same tactic in the 5000 that has brought him so much sucess in the 1500/mile: run all races, even championship finals, like time trials. If he makes it to the 5K final in Paris, he should get a couple of countrymen to tow him through 3K in no slower than 7:40 and get to 4200 meters in 10:50. Thats a tall order, especially after three 1500 races and a 5K in the previous week. But if it turns into a 13:10 - 13:20 sort of pace, he better start kicking from 1600 out and cover that ground near (or below) 4 minutes. If not, guys like Chebii will eat him alive with 51 second closers. Can't wait to see what happens...
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Fri May 30, 2003 9:05 am

>I think it stands to reason that El G will employ
>the same tactic in the 5000 that has brought him
>so much sucess in the 1500/mile: run all races,
>even championship finals, like time trials. If
>he makes it to the 5K final in Paris, he should
>get a couple of countrymen to tow him through 3K
>in no slower than 7:40 and get to 4200 meters in
>10:50. Thats a tall order, especially after
>three 1500 races and a 5K in the previous week.
>But if it turns into a 13:10 - 13:20 sort of
>pace, he better start kicking from 1600 out and
>cover that ground near (or below) 4 minutes. If
>not, guys like Chebii will eat him alive with 51
>second closers. Can't wait to see what
>happens...

The tall order would be to get three countymen into the final. I don't agree that hew would have to take over the final 1600. He may not have the fastest final 200 in the world but he does have a bit of leg speed. He may need to start to really run 800 out but I don't think he would have to start much further out than that. How many milers can match him in the final 600 of a 15? none. So why would you think that slower 5k guys would be able to match him in the final 600 of a 5? There has never been anybody who can "cruise" at 56 like El. G.

His fast pacing tactics are a part of the game. Since he doesn't have that lightening fast 100 m. close he takes advantage of his gift to be able to hold that high-end gear (56-57) longer than anyone else. That can be a problem in championship races but his determination to become even stronger at being able to run people into the ground should suit him ideally in the 5. As a result I think he is even more suited for the 5 than the 15 - that's scary.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Fri May 30, 2003 11:11 am

>Sorry--i'm just spoiled after too many years of
>exposure to the sport at its highest levels, like
>Zürich '97, where 6th place went in 12:56. That's
>"kicking ass." Ostrava will be a fine
>international--but pedestrian by Golden League
>standards--field.

That's one thing I'll never understand about American T&F fans... They'll get all drooly over a bunch of 14:10 college guys, but if you're talking about Kenyans running 12:55, they're 'not kick-ass enough'.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby sl » Fri May 30, 2003 11:23 am

>His fast pacing tactics are a part of the
>game. Since he doesn't have that lightening fast
>100 m. close he takes advantage of his gift to
>be able to hold that high-end gear (56-57)
>longer than anyone else. That can be a problem
>in championship races but his determination to
>become even stronger at being able to run people
>into the ground should suit him ideally in the
>5. As a result I think he is even more suited
>for the 5 than the 15 - that's scary.

We'll see. I watched him run 7:23 at Brussels in '99 and was amazed, but suspect he's going to find transitioning to 12.5 laps won't be as easy, particularly in a championship setting. 13 minutes gives the Kenyans too much time to change things up on him. What will he do if someone pulls a trick like Daniel Komen did at the '97 World Champs and makes him run 56-58 laps midrace? Must he then commit to keeping the pressure on for 5 or 6 laps to the finish? That's a tall order.
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Re: El Guerrouj 5000m?

Postby Guest » Fri May 30, 2003 8:11 pm

We'll see. I watched him run 7:23 at
>Brussels in '99 and was amazed, but suspect he's
>going to find transitioning to 12.5 laps won't be
>as easy, particularly in a championship setting.
>13 minutes gives the Kenyans too much time to
>change things up on him. What will he do if
>someone pulls a trick like Daniel Komen did at
>the '97 World Champs and makes him run 56-58 laps
>midrace? Must he then commit to keeping the
>pressure on for 5 or 6 laps to the finish? That's
>a tall order.

You're right it will be tricky but he's been around the game long enough to know what he's going to be faced with - that's likely one of the reasons he's postponed the move to the 5. He would likely be faced with a one on three. He would have to set a game plan and stick to it.

Another thing El G. can do as well as anyone in the world is to run fast by himself. Obviously he wouldn't be able to hammer 56-58 for the last 2k but I would bet he could run that last 2k faster than anyone else in the world. I would think someone blasting a 56/57 after 3k would play to his favor. He could trail on-shoulder keeping the pressure on, then build and with 800 left he would be by himself - familiar territory.

I hope we get to find out.
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