Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?


A place for the discussion of all things not closely related to the sport and its competitive side. (as always, locked for the duration of major international championship)

Postby tandfman » Fri Feb 02, 2007 8:47 am

lonewolf wrote: My point is, IMO, the doomsday scenario is overdone and, at least partially, driven by personal and political agendas.

Undoubtedly. But the same is true of the "everything is ok--there's nothing amiss" scenario. It's a lamentable fact of life that important scientific issues have become polticized. That should never happen, but it does happen regularly these days.
tandfman
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby MJD » Sat Feb 03, 2007 4:48 am

More reality. A bit too much of a good thing. Have driven in this nonsense before-not this time. Run will be fun:


/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.070204T0000Z- 070205T1100Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y. 0002.070204T0300Z-070205T1500Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN... OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 645 AM EST SAT FEB 3 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE REGION WILL GET A RESPITE FROM LAKE SNOWS TODAY. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A BURST OF SNOW...THEN THE FOLLOWING WESTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO FEET OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW RANGE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
MJD
 
Posts: 13402
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby cullman » Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:23 am

We're getting a break from thinking about global warming ATTS (and that there stuff) for the next week or two up here in the PNW.

"Judith Lavoie, CanWest News Service
Published: Friday, February 02, 2007

VICTORIA — Scientists are warning that if B.C.’s south coast is going to be hit by an earthquake soon, it’s likely to happen during the next week."

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/natio ... 40&k=92513

cman
cullman
 
Posts: 2065
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: ...in training...for something...

Postby Mennisco » Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:42 am

We're in a nice box up here in Toronto.
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby dukehjsteve » Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:48 am

Down here in balmy Indianapolis, it is 4 below. Hope they give the Colts' players heavy jackets before the Victory Parade this afternoon.
dukehjsteve
 
Posts: 6056
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Fishers, IN

Postby figo » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:09 am

i'm looking around for actual data on global warming.. direct data, no spins, no conclusions, raw data.
stuff like an average temperature now of say 500 weather stations versus historical averages, say from the last 100 years.
can't find it googling... you'd think this kind of data would be readily available ???
or sea levels around the world, averages of 200 ports....
or crop yields, growing seasons length world wide,....
or ocean temperature averages...
a list of all glaciers advancing - receding, snowfall accumulations and such.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101202498.html

my haphazard study indicates that the north is seemingly warming quite a bit as compared to the last 30-50 years but also the southern hemisphere is cooling by a bit.... i'm wondering if the earth averages are taken mostly from the north creating a bias, you'd like to balance north and south readings.. equal amounts of stations by longitude and latitude, geographic location (inland - sea).

for the north, you'd like to account for thermal warming of the arctic ocean caused by under water volcanoes, has this activity increased these last few years, accounting for the entire global warming effect??? according to the literature, there is virtually no historical data as most of the thermal contribution from volcanoes was uncovered in the last few years.... at least monitoring can start now in earnest, they should put some of their global warming dollars into research in this area...

or how about solar cycles - more / less radiation, what portion of the warming equation does the sun (output) account for.?? for sure solar activity varies a lot when it comes to solar storms (sunspots) and more energetic radiation output (uv, xray, high energy solar wind - particles coming earths way....


sunspot data - uv solar output equivalent?
note in the lows of the 1600's correspond very well with a little ice age, and the 1950's + corresponding now with a longer term warming effect????????

Image
Image
ideally, the global warmers would post all of this data on a single website.....
spend some global warmer government dollars there.
don't you think? or maybe it's out there already?

anyone find sources for raw data?
figo
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:44 pm

Postby Mennisco » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:46 am

I can't look for raw data right now but for heaven's sake if 2500 scientists under the auspices of the UN have now declared that the data shows unequivocally that we are ruining our climate, when does this silly debate stop?
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby MJD » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:49 am

I think I heard someone say that they said it was actually 95% so there is a bit of wiggle room there.
Last edited by MJD on Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
MJD
 
Posts: 13402
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby tandfman » Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:10 am

A 95% likelihood that we're ruining the planet's climate should be enough to concern us. They're clearly not talking about a remote worst case scenario. It's as close as we're going to get to reality, and I agree with Mennisco and others who think that it's time to stop debating whether it's happening and it's time to start focusing all of our efforts on what the heck we're going to do about it.
tandfman
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby Mennisco » Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:49 am

MJD wrote:I think I heard someone say that they said it was actaully 95% so there is a bit of wiggle room there.


Spoken like a true actuary :wink:

How many honey bees can do the Waggle Dance while shitfaced on Waggledance in the middle of a ferocious typhoon named Waggarina? :shock:

http://beergeek.stores.yahoo.net/yowahoal20.html
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby MJD » Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:49 am

I am not saying I disagree. I was just surprised at the 95%. The eco extremists talk about a virtual certainty and, as usual, it is the extremists that always hurt your case. To a mathematician, there is a big difference between virtual certainty and 95%.
MJD
 
Posts: 13402
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby Mennisco » Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:59 am

MJD wrote:I am not saying I disagree. I was just surprised at the 95%. The eco extremists talk about a virtual certainty and, as usual, it is the extremists that always hurt your case. To a mathematician, there is a big difference between virtual certainty and 95%.


True, and then I am also reminded of the current "rush hour traffic" warning dished out to BC as she's at 1 in 4000 odds of a catastrophic quake as we spake. It's more of an odds game than anything requiring absolute certainty, which I'd argue we're never gonna get anyway - problems of imperfection in climate models due to uncertainty in some variables for starters.
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby SQUACKEE » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:15 pm

Da Ruskies are gonna nuke us.
Over population will be the death us
Some kinda of bug is gonna wipe out the human race
An asteriod could hit at any time wiping out all life.
A mega quake will cause a huge wave to wipe out coastal areas.
Global cooling will send the earth into an iceage
The disappearing rain forest will doom mankind
Nuclear power plants will blowup spreading deadly stuff all over da place
Jehoval witness's say the world will end in 1976
Pesticides are gonna kill us
Trans fatty acids are gonna kill us
second hand smoke is gonna kill us
Terrorist will get nukes and blowup american cities
Many say the world will end in the year 2000
Global warming will ruin our weather in a few decades

Im sick of all this crap. Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby Daisy » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:20 pm

SQUACKEE wrote:Im sick of all this crap. Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


I think you mean "I will be dead of it".
Daisy
 
Posts: 13153
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Postby MJD » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:20 pm

SQUACKEE wrote:Jehoval witness's say the world will end in 1976


And only 100k get in I hear? Doesn't that make recruiting difficult?
MJD
 
Posts: 13402
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby tafnut » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:21 pm

SQUACKEE wrote:Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


Which is EXACTLY what they've been saying all along - you WILL be sick of it. :D

Hype is just that - hype. The bad thing now is that people have been crying 'Wolf' for so long, when the real one comes, no one will believe it!!!
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby SQUACKEE » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:29 pm

Daisy wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Im sick of all this crap. Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


I think you mean "I will be dead of it".


"Get on with the living or get on with the dying."
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby SQUACKEE » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:31 pm

MJD wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Jehoval witness's say the world will end in 1976


And only 100k get in I hear? Doesn't that make recruiting difficult?


Its 160k i believe but all 10 million or whatever think theyre one of the special few.
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby SQUACKEE » Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:34 pm

tafnut wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


Which is EXACTLY what they've been saying all along - you WILL be sick of it. :D

Hype is just that - hype. The bad thing now is that people have been crying 'Wolf' for so long, when the real one comes, no one will believe it!!!


But which wolf is real and which wolf is a ghost? That is the question.But in the end it really doesnt matter, does it?
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby Mennisco » Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:04 pm

SQUACKEE wrote:
tafnut wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


Which is EXACTLY what they've been saying all along - you WILL be sick of it. :D

Hype is just that - hype. The bad thing now is that people have been crying 'Wolf' for so long, when the real one comes, no one will believe it!!!


But which wolf is real and which wolf is a ghost? That is the question.But in the end it really doesnt matter, does it?


Sure it matters. It ain't too late to do nothing about it.
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby tafnut » Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:38 pm

Mennisco wrote:It ain't too late to do nothing about it.


Never put off till tomorrow that which you can do the day after . . .
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby EPelle » Tue Feb 06, 2007 12:06 am

So it was chilly this morning, and I saw the cows hot breath in the cold morning air. I asked myself, do they care?
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Postby Mennisco » Tue Feb 06, 2007 4:35 am

EPelle wrote:So it was chilly this morning, and I saw the cows hot breath in the cold morning air. I asked myself, do they care?


Only if their poo freezes instantly and they have to carry it around on their behinds.
Reminds me of a joke: A bear and a rabbit are taking a poo in the forest. The bear turns to the rabbit and says "Does the poo stick to your fur?" "No" says the rabbit, "and why do you ask" And the bear proceeds to pick up the rabbit and wipes his butt with the rabbit. :lol:
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby MJD » Tue Feb 06, 2007 7:29 am

Several seminars had to be cancelled on global warming in Buffalo because they had to shut some schools down BECAUSE OF THE COLD.

Highschools too. HIGHSCHOOLS.

Put a damn hat on. Be very afraid. It would appear I am in the minority(happily). Look at the poll on this page:

http://wben.com/

And this is in Buffalo where they are supposed to be used to it. Soft, whiny and lazy USAnians.
MJD
 
Posts: 13402
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby tafnut » Tue Feb 06, 2007 7:32 am

MJD wrote:Soft, whiny and lazy USAnians

And we KNOW you mean that in the kindest possible way . . . :twisted:

It's only getting up to 60 here today and I know I'm bummed!
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Feb 06, 2007 7:45 am

tafnut wrote:
MJD wrote:Soft, whiny and lazy USAnians


Redundant,redundant, redundant
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby EPelle » Tue Feb 06, 2007 7:58 am

tafnut wrote:
MJD wrote:Soft, whiny and lazy USAnians

And we KNOW you mean that in the kindest possible way . . . :twisted:

It's only getting up to 60 here today and I know I'm bummed!

Not so sure he was being kind there :-) MJD has used colour and an extra font size on, what, three occasions, perhaps?
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Postby Mennisco » Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:12 am

EPelle wrote:
tafnut wrote:
MJD wrote:Soft, whiny and lazy USAnians

And we KNOW you mean that in the kindest possible way . . . :twisted:

It's only getting up to 60 here today and I know I'm bummed!

Not so sure he was being kind there :-) MJD has used colour and an extra font size on, what, three occasions, perhaps?


He's using red because he's Canadian and wants to rub their noses in it. :twisted:
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby tafnut » Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:11 am

Mennisco wrote:He's using red because he's Canadian and wants to rub their noses in it. :twisted:


Just to be fair . . . it was I who put that in the red bold large font, not he.
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby Pego » Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:36 am

In my neck of woods

Sunday morning -23F
Yesterday -18
This morning -16

If this continues warming up like this, we'll get to zero in a week, LOL.
Pego
 
Posts: 10198
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: beyond help

Postby Mennisco » Tue Feb 06, 2007 9:44 am

tafnut wrote:
Mennisco wrote:He's using red because he's Canadian and wants to rub their noses in it. :twisted:


Just to be fair . . . it was I who put that in the red bold large font, not he.


You're right, and so am I. He used large red all-Canadian capitals before your post.
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby figo » Tue Feb 06, 2007 10:33 am

SQUACKEE wrote:Da Ruskies are gonna nuke us.
Over population will be the death us
Some kinda of bug is gonna wipe out the human race
An asteriod could hit at any time wiping out all life.
A mega quake will cause a huge wave to wipe out coastal areas.
Global cooling will send the earth into an iceage
The disappearing rain forest will doom mankind
Nuclear power plants will blowup spreading deadly stuff all over da place
Jehoval witness's say the world will end in 1976
Pesticides are gonna kill us
Trans fatty acids are gonna kill us
second hand smoke is gonna kill us
Terrorist will get nukes and blowup american cities
Many say the world will end in the year 2000
Global warming will ruin our weather in a few decades

Im sick of all this crap. Im not saying it isnt true but im sick of it.


i've got a solution for all of this.
grab a smoke and a beer, go to the beach with your lovely and play a few tunes..c'est la vie.
figo
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:44 pm

Postby tafnut » Tue Feb 06, 2007 10:40 am

figo wrote:i've got a solution for all of this. grab a smoke and a beer, go to the beach with your lovely and play a few tunes..c'est la vie.


Ah yes, the 'Ostrich Solution'. Works well in the short-term; rarely in the long-term. :twisted:
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Feb 06, 2007 10:53 am

tafnut wrote:
figo wrote:i've got a solution for all of this. grab a smoke and a beer, go to the beach with your lovely and play a few tunes..c'est la vie.


Ah yes, the 'Ostrich Solution'. Works well in the short-term; rarely in the long-term. :twisted:


Being worried all the time makes me unhappy in the short and long term. :?
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby bad hammy » Tue Feb 06, 2007 11:29 am

SQUACKEE wrote:Being worried all the time makes me unhappy in the short and long term. :?

I do not worry. I pay attention and act accordingly if and when I can. My level of control on this particular issue is what you would call limited. I recognize that and do not stress about it. This goes for just about any large issue facing us where my level of control is equally limited.

In a perfect world everyone would agree with me on what I consider to be the important issues, but this is not the case. I understand that many folks are often wrong. :P C'est la vie . . .
bad hammy
 
Posts: 10880
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Feb 06, 2007 11:32 am

bad hammy wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Being worried all the time makes me unhappy in the short and long term. :?

I do not worry. I pay attention and act accordingly if and when I can. My level of control on this particular issue is what you would call limited. I recognize that and do not stress about it. This goes for just about any large issue facing us where my level of control is equally limited.

In a perfect world everyone would agree with me on what I consider to be the important issues, but this is not the case. I understand that many folks are often wrong. :P C'est la vie . . .


So we Do agree! Neither of us is worried! :D
SQUACKEE
 
Posts: 12885
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Heaven-In front of stereo listenin to re-mastered Beatles

Postby Mennisco » Tue Feb 06, 2007 11:53 am

bad hammy wrote:
SQUACKEE wrote:Being worried all the time makes me unhappy in the short and long term. :?

I do not worry. I pay attention and act accordingly if and when I can. My level of control on this particular issue is what you would call limited. I recognize that and do not stress about it. This goes for just about any large issue facing us where my level of control is equally limited.

In a perfect world everyone would agree with me on what I consider to be the important issues, but this is not the case. I understand that many folks are often wrong. :P C'est la vie . . .


Reminds me of the Serenity Prayer:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change
The courage to change the things I can
And the wisdom to know the difference
.
Mennisco
 
Posts: 4110
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 3:43 pm
Location: Canada

Postby tafnut » Tue Feb 06, 2007 12:29 pm

Mennisco wrote:Reminds me of the Serenity Prayer:
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change The courage to change the things I can
And the wisdom to know the difference
.


My wife has that on our living room wall as a constant reminder. What remaining sanity I DO have here in my dotage, is directly attributable to remembering the value of that 'prayer'. It's now on my classroom wall, and you'd be amazed at how many times I have to point to it and remind students of its value.
tafnut
 
Posts: 26684
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: Lost at C (-minus)

Postby tandfman » Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:08 pm

bad hammy wrote:I do not worry. I pay attention and act accordingly if and when I can. My level of control on this particular issue is what you would call limited.

You do vote, don't you? That's not a lot of control, I know, but I think candidates' positions on environmental issues are increasingly going to be weighed by voters.
tandfman
 
Posts: 15042
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Postby figo » Tue Feb 06, 2007 8:51 pm

i was thinking about giving the global warming thing a rest, but of course i read the national post (canada), a very good news paper might i add, several articles on global warming.

our prime minister, stephen harper, a sinister looking anti-political type, prone to blunt statements called the kyoto accord a "fantasy". but said he'd do something about global warming.

the opposition criticized harper over his non-efforts, while the opposition did dick about global warming while in power......

all spin and posture from those boys.... actually governments seem to be just playing trying to look good while they figure out what the hell.
on the front page we had central canada suffering under the worst cold snap in recorded history.

chicago was -35 C? (chill) which is about -30F or something like that
winnipeg hit -40 C=F, not including chill....

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7226736
http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=a26c75cb-b313-424b-a514-6c1d65adc455
Across the Northern Plains and the Eastern United States, the cold snap is blamed for at least seven deaths. Cook, Minn., had the coldest temperature today, according to the National Weather Service: 31 degrees below zero.

"Over the last couple of weeks, the El Nino has weakened a little bit," says Dennis Feltgen of the National Weather Service. "So as a result, polar air is making its way into the eastern half of the country, and we're feeling the type of weather that would be normally expected for winter."


note: our joker weather guys got it all figured out, el nino backed off a bit...
someone tell those guys to shut the fup whenst time they should not shut the fup..
figo
 
Posts: 907
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2006 4:44 pm

PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests