Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?


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Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby EPelle » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:08 am

Will be without snow here in Göteborg all winter, with a small hint of possible snowfall in march - when the sun is out longer. This means a long, drawn out autumn on the other end of things.

Doesn:t bode well for the mandatory winter tyres - 6.000 SEK for four new ones put on in okt.

What:s up with your part of the world?
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Postby maggot » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:16 am

I don't live there, but I read that New York City had the first December since the late 1800's without snow.
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Postby bad hammy » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:18 am

Global warming is a fact. What is disputed is what changes it will make in your neighborhood.

In theory Europe is screwed ‘cause the warming Atlantic currents are supposed to shut down, leaving Europeans to face the kinds of winters they get in Minnesota. I read this morning that Phoenix, AZ had a record number of consecutive dry days this year (something like 147), whereas Seattle had the wettest November on record. So maybe you will get more of what you are used to, whatever that is.

In CA they expect more rain and less snow in the Sierras, adversely affecting water supplies in the big cities that are quenched by snow runoff. The collection reservoirs are sized to handle gradual runoff over a long period of time, not huge amounts of runoff over a short period of time.

All sorts of interesting things will be happening weather-wise in our lifetimes. I wouldn’t go out of my way to buy near-sea-level properties. And things definitely look bad if you are a polar bear . . .
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Postby tandfman » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:21 am

Acdording to the NYTimes, it was 72 degrees there this past weekend (that's 22 Celsius). Equalled city record for January.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/07/nyreg ... ref=slogin
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Postby gh » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:39 am

plus ça change.... I remember my mother kvetching about the weather patterns being totally screwed up (too much snow one year, not enough the next) in the '50s and blaming it on nuclear testing.

Any attempt to look at weather in anything other than monstrous many-year chunks and across the whole planet as an average is like identifying all the trees on the forest after looking at one fallen leaf.

(but yes, of course, the overall trend is currently upwards, with no end in sight)
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Postby MJD » Tue Jan 09, 2007 9:54 am

Thankfully, things are getting back to normal in WNY:

"THIS VERY COLD FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS APPROACHING A FOOT AND A HALF IN SOME AREAS."

We can only hope.
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Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:01 am

No snow in Connecticut and none forcast thru mid Jan. Since im a runner i love it! Here's hoping for a nice mild summer! :D :arrow: :idea: :twisted: :twisted:
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Postby Mennisco » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:04 am

We had a record high of 9.2C for January 1 here in normally-frikkin'-freezin' Toronto. I think I've seen about a dozen snowflakes so far this year and it wasn't dandruff. It's definitely freaky. Meantime, palm trees in Vancouver have likely been flattened like the ones in Stanley Park - GH must be wondering what's up with his native hinterland. 50 years from now, Iqaluit will be the new Fort Lauderdale 8)
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Postby gm » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:06 am

Weather cycles, Chicken Hammy, weather cycles. What goes around, comes around, even in weather. Now if you could just get those damn volcanoes to stop spewing out gas at such a high level... :twisted:
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Postby bad hammy » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:13 am

gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .
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Postby tandfman » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:23 am

bad hammy wrote:gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .

I suspect gm would rather take 90 minutes of root canal. :)
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Postby guru » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:26 am

bad hammy wrote:gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .



Whatever the status of global warming , it has nothing to do with the weather in the midwest and east coast.

http://post-journal.com/articles.asp?articleID=11106

Just ask the folks in Colorado

Image
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Postby mojo » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:45 am

We had at least three major wind and rain storms (I have lost count).
Definitely one of the wettest winters I can remember.

Lots of basements have flooded, our beloved Stanley Park has lost many of its magnificent old trees and the roof on BC place in Vancouver was torn open. :?

Track practices have also been a challenge.
You know it is lousy out when you can't see your kids running through the rain and they have to avoid branches flying through the air.

We don't cancel practices. :D
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Postby gh » Tue Jan 09, 2007 10:46 am

gm wrote:Weather cycles, Chicken Hammy, weather cycles. What goes around, comes around, even in weather. Now if you could just get those damn volcanoes to stop spewing out gas at such a high level... :twisted:


As a hard-core enviro-friendly, it pains me to say it, but this part of the equation is indeed, IMHO, being underplayed by the Chicken Little scientists of the world. While there's no doubt that man-made actions are exacerbating things at the moment, I remain not completely convinced that ole mother earth (the Gaia Hypothesis?) can still take care of herself far more than some would have you believe. Certainly assigning blame to homo sapiens for minor perturbations in microclimate (which is all we're really talking about here) is too drastic a step to be taking at this point.
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Postby bad hammy » Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:02 am

tandfman wrote:
bad hammy wrote:gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .

I suspect gm would rather take 90 minutes of root canal. :)

Yep, sometimes the truth is a little painful.

gh wrote:. . . I remain not completely convinced that ole mother earth (the Gaia Hypothesis?) can still take care of herself far more than some would have you believe.

Mother Earth will be just fine. The thing is, she doesn’t care whether you are here and enjoying your ride or not. Things are going to get a bit human hostile over the next couple of hundred years . . .
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Postby Pego » Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:34 am

bad hammy wrote:
tandfman wrote:
bad hammy wrote:gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .

I suspect gm would rather take 90 minutes of root canal. :)

Yep, sometimes the truth is a little painful.

gh wrote:. . . I remain not completely convinced that ole mother earth (the Gaia Hypothesis?) can still take care of herself far more than some would have you believe.

Mother Earth will be just fine. The thing is, she doesn’t care whether you are here and enjoying your ride or not. Things are going to get a bit human hostile over the next couple of hundred years . . .


As if we needed more reasons for hostlity :( .
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Postby figo » Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:34 am

antarctica is cooling

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/01/0125_020125_antarcticaclimate.html
http://www.nationalcenter.org/TSR11502.html

i was looking at global warming well before the mass media got onto the band wagon. before global warming was largely ignored and now everyone "knows" its a fact.

after looking at the thing, there's too many holes in the theory and data to get too smug with any theory on climate change. but i'm believing that there is an overall upward trend worldwide.

what happens with the fad mongers is that they push all the data into their theory and ignore contrary facts. i mean, how much press did the antarctica story get.?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age
some of the best data in the overall global temperature situation comes from ice core analysis - greenland - antarctica and other shows the long term co2, methane, dust...

i think they're really getting somewhere with the theory that the variation in atmospheric co2 is strongly correlated with the earths orbit / axis configuration...

according to this theory, earth should be entering into an ice age as we speak.
note that some say that ice ages began 40 million years ago and are due to the continents lumping together and stopping ocean water circulation, you know warming the equator and the arctic starts freezing.....rather than a cooler equator and warmer poles...

possibly the climate of 40 million years ago might be far more desirable than todays, with far less extremes in temperature, large deserts, massive tundras that resemble the surface of mars.....

http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/hazen/images/asgard.jpg

Variations in Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles)

The Milankovitch cycles are a set of cyclic variations in characteristics of the Earth's orbit around the sun. Each cycle has a different length, so at some times their effects reinforce each other and at other times they (partially) cancel each other.

It is very unlikely that the Milankovitch cycles can start or end an ice age (series of glacial periods):

* Even when their effects reinforce each other they are not strong enough.
* The "peaks" (effects reinforce each other) and "troughs" (effects cancel each other) are much more regular and much more frequent than the observed ice ages.

In contrast, there is strong evidence that the Milankovitch cycles affect the occurrence of glacial and inter-glacial periods within an ice age. The present ice ages are the most studied and best understood, particularly the last 400,000 years, since this is the period covered by ice cores that record atmospheric composition and proxies for temperature and ice volume. Within this period, the match of glacial/interglacial frequencies to the Milanković orbital forcing periods is so close that orbital forcing is generally accepted. The combined effects of the changing distance to the Sun, the precession of the Earth's axis, and the changing tilt of the Earth's axis redistribute the sunlight received by the Earth. Of particular importance are changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis, which affect the intensity of seasons. For example, the amount of solar influx in July at 65 degrees north latitude varies by as much as 25% (from 400 W/m2 to 500 W/m2, see graph at [1]). It is widely believed that ice sheets advance when summers become too cool to melt all of the accumulated snowfall from the previous winter. Some workers believe that the strength of the orbital forcing is too small to trigger glaciations, but feedback mechanisms like CO2 may explain this mismatch.

While Milankovitch forcing predicts that cyclic changes in the Earth's orbital parameters can be expressed in the glaciation record, additional explanations are necessary to explain which cycles are observed to be most important in the timing of glacial/interglacial periods. In particular, during the last 800,000 years, the dominant period of glacial-interglacial oscillation has been 100,000 years, which corresponds to changes in Earth's eccentricity and orbital inclination. Yet this is by far the weakest of the three frequencies predicted by Milankovitch. During the period 3.0 - 0.8 million years ago, the dominant pattern of glaciation corresponded to the 41,000 year period of changes in Earth's obliquity (tilt of the axis). The reasons for dominance of one frequency versus another are poorly understood and an active area of current research, but the answer probably relates to some form of resonance in the Earth's climate system.



The present ice age began 40 million years ago with the growth of an ice sheet in Antarctica, but intensified during the Pleistocene (starting around 3 million years ago) with the spread of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Since then, the world has seen cycles of glaciation with ice sheets advancing and retreating on 40,000- and 100,000-year time scales. The last glacial period ended about ten thousand years ago.

my most tentative conclusion is that human induced global warming is countering an expected and undesirable cooling effect (see ice core data - prediction) and is therefore a desirable thing
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Postby cullman » Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:46 am

mojo wrote:We had at least three major wind and rain storms (I have lost count).
Definitely one of the wettest winters I can remember.

Lots of basements have flooded, our beloved Stanley Park has lost many of its magnificent old trees and the roof on BC place in Vancouver was torn open. :?

Today is pretty warm in my Greater Vancouver abode adjacent to Burns Bog but it's suppose to hit the freezing point tomorrow and windy and freezing the day after that. Meteorologists are mumbling something about snow in the forecast.

cman
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Postby mojo » Tue Jan 09, 2007 11:56 am

cullman wrote:
mojo wrote:We had at least three major wind and rain storms (I have lost count).
Definitely one of the wettest winters I can remember.

Lots of basements have flooded, our beloved Stanley Park has lost many of its magnificent old trees and the roof on BC place in Vancouver was torn open. :?

Today is pretty warm in my Greater Vancouver abode adjacent to Burns Bog but it's suppose to hit the freezing point tomorrow and windy and freezing the day after that. Meteorologists are mumbling something about snow in the forecast.

cman


yeah we have heard the S word around here for tonight and tomorrow too.

Wind??? What's that? :roll:


Stay warm c-man.
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Postby gm » Tue Jan 09, 2007 12:07 pm

bad hammy wrote:gm,

Take 90 minutes one day and watch An Inconvenient Truth. We are riding one cycle you really don't want any part of . . .


No, I prefer non-alarmist examinations of long-term trends. If Al F'ing Gore is so damned concerned about this stuff, he can get out of his jet, get on his hemp-constructed bicycle, and bike his butt to all those appearances. Until that happens he is just another noise in the background.

Heck, not too long ago I remember the concern was "the coming Ice Age." I bought a lot of heavy jackets based on those alarmists and now I'm peeved.

And tandfman, I would probably rather be kicked in the jimmies for 90 minutes than listen to that honk :twisted:
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Postby cullman » Tue Jan 09, 2007 12:15 pm

gm wrote:And tandfman, I would probably rather be kicked in the jimmies for 90 minutes than listen to that honk :twisted:

I was gonna make a snarky comment but I'm preoccupied with the image of tandfman giving gm the Lou Groza treatment to the goonads for 90 minutes. Ouch... :shock:

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Postby az2004 » Tue Jan 09, 2007 12:44 pm

it's been about 10 degrees above average ever since the beginning of december...

if it's global warming.....keep it coming...

seriously, it's all about the jet stream NOT dipping down from canada, and there's a persisent HIGH pressure. much like the bermuda high during the summer season...

not knowledgeable to know if the presence of the high has anyhting to do with global warming though
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Postby bad hammy » Tue Jan 09, 2007 12:45 pm

cullman wrote:
gm wrote:And tandfman, I would probably rather be kicked in the jimmies for 90 minutes than listen to that honk :twisted:

I was gonna make a snarky comment but I'm preoccupied with the image of tandfman giving gm the Lou Groza treatment to the goonads for 90 minutes. Ouch... :shock:

cman

Yeah, I was enjoying picturing that myself . . .
:P :twisted: :wink:
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Postby lonewolf » Tue Jan 09, 2007 1:51 pm

gh wrote:
gm wrote:Weather cycles, Chicken Hammy, weather cycles. What goes around, comes around, even in weather. Now if you could just get those damn volcanoes to stop spewing out gas at such a high level... :twisted:


As a hard-core enviro-friendly, it pains me to say it, but this part of the equation is indeed, IMHO, being underplayed by the Chicken Little scientists of the world. While there's no doubt that man-made actions are exacerbating things at the moment, I remain not completely convinced that ole mother earth (the Gaia Hypothesis?) can still take care of herself far more than some would have you believe. Certainly assigning blame to homo sapiens for minor perturbations in microclimate (which is all we're really talking about here) is too drastic a step to be taking at this point.


gh, that sums it up for me. Man has only been keeping spotty records for a few hundred years. The geologic record dates back millions of years. Earth underwent innumerable cycles of global warming and cooling and pole migration before humans evolved. Mans influence is infinitesimal compared to natural forces.
There is global warming but it ain't our fault.

In 75 years, I have visited every US state, most of Canada, Central America and Western Europe. I have lived in OK, TX, KS, NM, CO,VA, AB, BC and Germany and sojourned long enough for a sampling of weather in half the remaining states.

On every day, in every year, in every season, in every one of those places, they were having unusual weather
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Postby tandfman » Wed Jan 10, 2007 6:06 am

bad hammy wrote:
cullman wrote:
gm wrote:And tandfman, I would probably rather be kicked in the jimmies for 90 minutes than listen to that honk :twisted:

I was gonna make a snarky comment but I'm preoccupied with the image of tandfman giving gm the Lou Groza treatment to the goonads for 90 minutes. Ouch... :shock:

cman

Yeah, I was enjoying picturing that myself . . .
:P :twisted: :wink:

You guys don't understand. Even thought I said (apparently correctly) that gm would rather undergo 90 minutes of root canal than spend that time watching Al Gore's film, I never suggested that I would be the dentist. Nor would I particularly want to administer the alternative that he suggested. I am not a sadist. (I must admit, though, that I might enjoy luring gm into a movie theater under some pretense and then locking all the doors before he realizes that the Gore film is up next. :) )
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Postby gm » Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:40 am

I always pack a pair of emergency knitting needles so I can gouge my eyes out in a theater...!

BTW, wasn't his film title more appropriate to his days as assistant muckety-muck?
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Postby Daisy » Wed Jan 10, 2007 1:53 pm

We're long overdue for global famine and pestilence.
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Postby tafnut » Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:13 pm

Daisy wrote:We're long overdue for global famine and pestilence.


Whatever happened to the good old plagues of locusts and boils??!!
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Postby Daisy » Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:27 pm

tafnut wrote:
Daisy wrote:We're long overdue for global famine and pestilence.


Whatever happened to the good old plagues of locusts and boils??!!


Pesticides and antibiotics, or was that rhetorical?
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Postby tandfman » Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:57 pm

Daisy wrote:We're long overdue for global famine and pestilence.

If you're in charge of arranging such things, could you please hold off another century or two. :)
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Postby DrJay » Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:45 pm

62F today, on the way down to -4F this weekend, with more snow on the way.
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:50 pm

Here in the SF Bay Area it is supposed to get down to 20F the next couple of nights, with the weather folks saying there is a possiblity of snow at sea level.
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Postby figo » Wed Jan 10, 2007 4:23 pm

vancovuer got hit with windstorm #14 last night....
more trees down, power out again....

stanley park is taking a huge beating..
http://www.penmachine.com/photoessays/2002_06_aerial/Images/10.jpg
it's about a 10k run around, great great run.

after the first few storms, it looked like the weak and rotten trees were darwined out of the mix but now it seems the repeated wind exposure has weakened every tree.......

it's a mess..
http://api.flickr.com/services/feeds/photos_public.gne?tags=damage&format=rss_200
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Postby bad hammy » Wed Jan 10, 2007 4:36 pm

figo wrote:after the first few storms, it looked like the weak and rotten trees were darwined out of the mix but now it seems the repeated wind exposure has weakened every tree.......

it's a mess..

It's probably those Milankovitch cycles . . . :wink:
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Postby Daisy » Wed Jan 10, 2007 7:54 pm

tandfman wrote:
Daisy wrote:We're long overdue for global famine and pestilence.

If you're in charge of arranging such things, could you please hold off another century or two. :)

OK tandfman, I asked around and they said there is no way they can hold off for 200 years. Don't quote me on this but the're talking about sending in the horsemen when Hillary gets elected
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Postby gh » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:18 am

Just heard on the radio there was snow in the San Bernardino Valley (greater LA) this morning.
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Postby figo » Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:56 am

for sure toxic emissions and pollution by humans is bad news, there are too many people out there, too much concrete and factories....

that said, is global warming caused by greenhouse gases such as methane and co2 really bad? you know the human beast tends to get an idea and then gather the facts that support their hypothesis... right now, very few are looking at the positives that could result from an overall warming......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine
article on famines worldwide...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought
drought
http://faostat.fao.org/Portals/_Faostat/documents/pdf/map04.pdf
growth in agricultural production
http://www.fao.org/es/ess/historical/Default.aspx
agricultural statistics
http://www.fao.org/es/ess/chartroom/gfap.asp#
growth world wide in production

from the above sites you will see that agricultural production in nearly all countries is up over the past 15 years, and not by a little but a lot...

india is feeding itself, china is feeding itself....

could an increase in co2 lead to an increase in organic biomass....???

http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Boon_To_Man.html
Based on history, however, global warming is likely to be positive for most of mankind while the additional carbon, rain, and warmth should also promote plant growth that can sustain an expanding world population. Global change is inevitable; warmer is better; richer is healthier.
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Postby figo » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:54 am

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Postby tafnut » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:01 pm

figo wrote:http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Boon_To_Man.html
Based on history, however, global warming is likely to be positive for most of mankind while the additional carbon, rain, and warmth should also promote plant growth that can sustain an expanding world population. Global change is inevitable; warmer is better; richer is healthier.


Ah, don't ya love spin? Who cares if the polar caps melt and flood every seaport in the world? Who cares if entire species are wiped out due to ecological change; we were headed that way in the next big macrocycle anyway - so what's 50,000 years, give or take? In geological time, that's just the blink of an eye anyway!!! :)
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Postby bad hammy » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:03 pm

tafnut wrote:Ah, don't ya love spin? Who cares if the polar caps melt and flood every seaport in the world? Who cares if entire species are wiped out due to ecological change . . .

Better think about moving, t'nut. With the highest point in FL being 375', when the oceans rise 40' feet or so after the ice all melts about 80% of FL will be under water.
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