McIntosh vs. Demus

[trackstar]

I am outraged! Okay, maybe just miffed. Both the Trackwire and T&FN formcharts pick Lashinda Demus over Raasin McIntosh in the 400 hurdles. Why? McIntosh's best time (54.60) is WAY ahead of anyone else in the NCAA. The closest is Alison Beckford's 55.18, and everyone else is way back in the 56 range.

Maybe you guys know something about Demus that I don't, but I think McIntosh is awesome this year! I just watched her at the Big 12 meet, and she ran a 56.03 with very little effort. She cruised the first 200, apparently saving up energy for the 4x4, and then put on a huge surge from 200 to 250 to easily pass the people ahead of her. She looked like a cat toying with a wounded mouse.

Heck, I'm still optimistic that she can pull off an unprecedented hurdles double

Gary? Jack? If either of you are reading, I demand an explanation!

(and as long as you're explaining things, why do the Lists links on T&FN's website only point to last year's collegiate lists and not the current ones?)

Hook 'em,
Lee

[Guest]

Demus has nt lost a hurdle race this year. She has not even bee contested. Now I do agree that it will be a good match between both athletes but I would have to give the edge to Demue. She is the reigning national high school and junior record holder.

[Guest]

dont be outraged, everyone has a right to their opinion of who will win, the main thing is to see the athletes get on the track and see the results. upsets,surprises,breakthroughs by athletes currently unknown help make the sport great

[trackstar]

>dont be outraged, everyone has a right to their
>opinion of who will win, the main thing is to see
>the athletes get on the track and see the
>results. upsets,surprises,breakthroughs by
>athletes currently unknown help make the sport
>great

I wasn't really outraged, just kidding. (That's why I put a smiley face at the end.)

But I do see now that Demus ran a 54.70 last year. That certainly helps to explain things. Man, I wish I could be at the meet to see that race live!

[sl]

Lee,

Though Jack Pfeifer made those picks, not me, I believe he is using a sound principle of prognostication: that, absent mitigating factors like injury, an athlete's past pattern is often a better predictor than form 2 months before the meet (when McIntosh ran her seasonal best).

Here is what Demus did last year in the 400H. Note, she didn't peak until she needed to.

Demus 2002
57.59 1)Baskin R 03/23
56.64 1)Florida R Coll 03/29
56.64 1)Penn R Univ 04/25
56.92 2)SEC 05/12 1. Ross.
56.39 1–h3)NCAA 05/29
54.85 1)NCAA 05/31
56.97 1–h2)USATF Jr 06/21
56.35 1)USATF Jr 06/22
57.38 1–h1)WJr Ch 07/17
54.70 1)WJr Ch 07/19

Here is what she has done so far this year. The pattern is fairly similar so far, and she also won the NCAA Indoor 400. McIntosh may indeed upset her, but Jack's pick is backed with very solid reasoning. Should be a close race, unless there is one of those dang mitigating factors we don't yet know about.

Demus 2003
58.76 2)Columbia 03/22 1. Ross.
56.33 1)SC Quad 04/05
56.90 1)Penn R Univ 04/24

[trackstar]

That is some darn good peaking! We'll see if Raasin has learned to do that yet.

Thanks!

[sl]

... and no question McIntosh is the better 100 hurdler so far.

[gh]

Read the heading at the top of the predictions page: says they'll be updated after the Super Conferences weekend, which means that new ones will be going up today or tomorrow.

Without giving away the whole plotline (the butler did it), I can assure you that McIntosh is now rated ahead of Demus.

Jack P. be no dummy.

[trackstar]

My burnt orange heart is smiling ... now, I just hope he's right.