Bucking the odds


A place for the discussion of all things not closely related to the sport and its competitive side. (as always, locked for the duration of major international championship)

Bucking the odds

Postby guru » Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:20 pm

SHOULD the White Sox go on to win the Series, the odds of two teams winning titles in 1917 & 1918, then not winning another title between them until they go back-to-back again in 2004 & 2005(Red Sox being the other team of course) are......

Why should I make it easy and tell you? YOU tell me 8) .


edit: I do know and will put it up if no one comes up with it, just curious if any math-types out there can get it.
guru
 
Posts: 10266
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Strava, racking KOMs https://tinyurl.com/qf2ntch

Postby eldrick » Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:55 pm

i'll go

~ 265,000 to 1

?

as 1st shot
eldrick
 
Posts: 14147
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: 19th hole st andrews

Postby guru » Mon Oct 17, 2005 4:59 pm

eldrick wrote:i'll go

~ 265,000 to 1

?

as 1st shot




Too low. It's over 1,000,000 to 1.
guru
 
Posts: 10266
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Strava, racking KOMs https://tinyurl.com/qf2ntch

I'll bite

Postby Honusonthesound » Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:11 pm

2.5 gazillion to 6. Howz that?

'course as any high school math student knows, that's got no bearing upon the actual game-by-game odds of on-the-field play. I'm likin' the Sox' odds against whichever team should emerge from the NL playoffs. With the ghost of Shoeless Joe roamin' left field, how can they lose?
Honusonthesound
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Washington State

Re: I'll bite

Postby guru » Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:52 pm

Honusonthesound wrote:2.5 gazillion to 6. Howz that?




Only if you include "and both teams are variants of mens hosiery"


Which I didn't, so you're a tad on the high side Honus :roll:
guru
 
Posts: 10266
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Strava, racking KOMs https://tinyurl.com/qf2ntch

Bookie makes money on the handle not the outcome

Postby wineturtle » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:00 am

:mrgreen: once in 5,116,644 draws :wink:
wineturtle
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Astoria Queens New York

Re: I'll bite

Postby Daisy » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:31 am

isn't this all assuming that each team has an equal chance of making the playoffs at least? If so then team's like the Brewers and Tampa will throw off your calculation since they have zero odds of making the playoffs. At least it looks that way.
Daisy
 
Posts: 13153
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Postby eldrick » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:55 am

i got that figure assuming 20 teams thruout the last 100y ( that figure has changed )

take the average no. of teams in past 100y: N

odds of them going back-to-back in '17/'18 are

~ 0.5 * [ N^2 / (N - 1) ]^2

then either not winning for 87y, you have to multiply by

~ [ N / ( N -2 ) ]^87

& then you finally multiply by first formula again ( as they've gone back to back again )

i can try to simplify it later

whoops ! now it's ~ 470,000,000 to 1

i give up Image
eldrick
 
Posts: 14147
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: 19th hole st andrews


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests