Dennis the Menace(Emily on deck)

[guru]

Your favorite time of the year tafnut. Supposed to be a big one before hitting anywhere from Louisiana to Florida Saturday. Why you guys live down there is beyond me.

Oh, yeah, that January and February thing. Nevermind .


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

(image updates every 1/2 hour)

[tafnut]

My parents-in-law just evacuated AGAIN. If 100+ winds hit the FEMA trailer they're STILL living in, it's gone too. This is not right.

[Randy Treadway]

I've lived in both Florida, Alabama and California, among other places. I'll take earthquake risk over hurricane or tornado risk any day. Yes, there's no warning, but there's less damage if you're moderately well prepared.

[DentyCracker]

Thankfully passing between us and Cuba at present. Lots of rain though. Thank God for the Blue Mountains. People in Ocho Rios are probably getting a lot more wind right now. After Ivan we couldn't take another direct hit. Dennis is now at Category 3 and expected to strengthen further. tafnut it probably is headed your way as it seems to be heading more northerly than before.

[tafnut]

I'm 5 miles off the beach and that makes a big difference. Last year I just went powerless for 36 hours. Losing one's home is a whole different matter.

[DentyCracker]

If it had decided to pass just south of the island I wouldn't have power now that is for sure. Less the 500m from Kingston Harbour at present, probably closer to 250m from the beach. This thing might be quite bad by the time the eye makes landfall in Cuba. I have friends studying there.

[Randy Treadway]

>>Less the 500m from Kingston Harbour

Oh REALLY?!!

Well then, we can adjust course on this thread back to track & field by asking what Powell's time would be right now if he went out to National Stadium and sprinted a 100 with the wind to his back? 9.33?

[einnod23]

>My parents-in-law just evacuated AGAIN. If 100+ winds hit the FEMA trailer
>they're STILL living in, it's gone too. This is not right.

And a big payback????????

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/07/04/fema.p ... index.html

[mike renfro]

>My parents-in-law just evacuated AGAIN. If 100+ winds hit the FEMA trailer
>they're STILL living in, it's gone too. This is not right.

Pat, I saw your email addr on another thread and thought about inquiring how your inlaws were getting along with reconstruction, insurance haggling, etc. Got right on it. Hope this isn't as bad. My sister is out here (her school is over, Oregon seemed like a good idea). I suppose she has another mess to deal with. My mom stayed in Pensacola, so I guess she is just hunkering down.

[Trackfan310]

>I've lived in both Florida, Alabama and California, among other places. I'll
>take earthquake risk over hurricane or tornado risk any day. Yes, there's no
>warning, but there's less damage if you're moderately well prepared.

I agree with that assessment. I've lived in FL and Tx as well as CA, and I would rank my Fear of Natural disasters in the following Order:

1) Tornados
2) Hurricane
3) Earthquake

Working backwards, my reasons for this order are as follows:

1) with an Eartquake, sure, there is no warning, but as stated before, if you are prepared, the damage can be minimal, AND, Earthquakes hit all the time with no damage. Only REAL LARGE earthquakes are generally guaranteed to destory something, and they tend to be fairly rare.

2) Sure, with a hurricane, you know its coming days in advance, but once it gets there, what are you going to do? Given that the winds have to be at a certain speed before a storm becomes a hurricane you know the power is definetly there. Sure, Real strong structures can handle hurricane force winds, but odds are SOMETHING is coming down.

3) What a Tornado touches, it destorys. Period. Slow moving? Yes. But they can be almost as spontaneous as earthquakes dropping out of the sky on a moments notice. The idea of being implated by straw doesn't sit well with me either.

[DentyCracker]

>>>Less the 500m from Kingston Harbour

Oh REALLY?!!

Well then, we can
>adjust course on this thread back to track & field by asking what Powell's time
>would be right now if he went out to National Stadium and sprinted a 100 with
>the wind to his back? 9.33?

Probably 8point something. We probably are getting gale force winds circa 15-20 metre per second winds. Powell has been in Rome for the last week or so preparing for tomorrow. Hopefully both himself and Gatlin will be fit.

[jeremyp]

Just moved to Ft. Myers. Going to a motel next two days further inland. Too much of a novice to stay put. And it's the earliest on RECORD! Sure looking forward to the rest of the summer!

[tafnut]

>>Pat, I>saw your email addr on another thread and thought about inquiring how your>inlaws were getting along with reconstruction, insurance haggling, etc.<<

State Farm STILL has not settled. Several dozen families are bringing a class-action suit. One family in a $500,000 house, that was completely destroyed, was offered $3500 (three thousand, five hundred) as a settlement. Unbelieveable.

[mojo]

>>>$3500 (three thousand, five hundred) as a settlement.
>Unbelieveable.

But that is US bucks!!! I'd take it!

[guru]

There has to be more to that story. That settlement offer is ridiculous.

[26mi235]

>>>Less the 500m from Kingston Harbour

Oh REALLY?!!

Well then, we can
>adjust course on this thread back to track & field by asking what Powell's time
>would be right now if he went out to National Stadium and sprinted a 100 with
>the wind to his back? 9.33?

Kenny Moore had a story along these lines many years ago. There was a really big windstorm in western Oregon when he was at UO. The track guys were out for their workouts and it was not going to be possible to do them. They started doing 100 yard dashes with the wind. Kenny racked up a 9.4 IIRC. Then trees start falling over around them and they realized the seriousness of the storm. When he did some notable performance he was asked by Track & Field News to provide a bio with best marks. He said that they never commented on the 9.4w time.

[The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was an extratropical wave cyclone that ranked among the most intense to strike the United States Pacific Northwest since at least 1948, and probably since the January 9, 1880 "Great Gale" and snowstorm. On a larger scale, for the entire U. S., the Columbus Day Storm of 1962 is a contender for the "Biggest Extratropical Cyclone of the 20th Century". With respect to wind velocity, the Columbus Day Storm is unmatched even by the much-touted March 1993 "Storm of the Century" and the "Perfect Storm." Only Eastern hurricanes of Category III or higher have brought winds of the magnitude witnessed in Oregon on Columbus Day of 1962. Max speeds recorded were 145 mph and (possibly as high as 179)

[tafnut]

>There has to be more to that story. That settlement offer is ridiculous.,

That's exactly the point - it was an insult.

[abinferno]

Good lord people, move out of Florida, it's not worth the trouble. That's like living under a volcano in Hawaii and reacting with indignance when your house is destroyed by an eruption.

[gh]

<<Kenny Moore had a story
>along these lines many years ago. There was a really big windstorm in western
>Oregon when he was at UO. The track guys were out for their workouts and it
>was not going to be possible to do them. They started doing 100 yard dashes
>with the wind. Kenny racked up a 9.4 IIRC. Then trees start falling over
>around them and they realized the seriousness of the storm. When he did some
>notable performance he was asked by Track & Field News to provide a bio with
>best marks. He said that they never commented on the 9.4w time.>>

That's cuz by the time he wrote the story a score of years later he had created a false memory. He didn't actually put it on the bio, although he may have considered so doing.

[26mi235]

Thanks gh, I had wondered about that and it semed you were the source to finding out.

[Daisy]

>There has to be more to that story. That settlement offer is ridiculous.


Obviously some kind of get out clause. The small print on those things can be brutal.

[guru]

Looks like landfall tomorrow afternoon or evening. The photolink in my original post is very impressive.

[tafnut]

They're baaaaack. The in-laws (6 total) are back in Chez Tafnut tonight, as Dennis zeroes right in on Pensacola! We just pretend it's a planned family reunion with short notice.

[tafnut]

Anyone watching this on TV? Unbelievable. A HUGE hurricane is headed right at Pensacola for the second time in less than one year. 145mph winds will completely destroy the Beaches area again. My in-laws will lose EVERYTHING except what they brought in the car AGAIN. I'm aghast.

[guru]

Yes, it is unbelieveable. The satellite photos tell the tale.

edit: Currently as strong as Andrew, with winds just below a Category 5 classification at 140 mph.

[twittering debutante]

Those "meteorologists" who always do their live shots amidst hurricane-force winds are going to have a member of their clown fraternity killed on live TV someday. A guy nearly was stuck by lightning during his shot yesterday.

Although I won't mind watching MSNBC's Campbell Brown getting drenched this afternoon. Had the great fortune of riding alone with her in an elevator once.

[26mi235]

And the storm has a rapid speed of its own, so that the eastern side of the eye has particularly high winds.

[Jack Slocombe]

Wow, watching the weather channel. Looks like Ft. Walton Beach and Destin are gonna get it bad. That was my last duty station in the USAF way back in '67.

[tafnut]

Eglin or Tyndall?

[Jack Slocombe]

48th ARRS (rescue) at Eglin, right next to the climatic hangar.

[tafnut]

cool

[Randy Treadway]

My brother was in that squadron (comm operator on a C-130) at Eglin in the 80's. Except they'd expanded their mission responsibilities to include Special Ops.
When they invaded Panama his plane was circling overhead waiting for a signal from ground commanders that they'd grabbed Noriega, and they were supposed to land, toss Noriega on board (in cuffs of course) without feathering the props, and then immediately take off non-stop for Miami.
Except they didn't get Noriega for weeks, after he hid out in a monastery and they had to bombard him with PsyOps rock music 'til he came out pleading for relief. My brother's plane circled for something like 13 hours (in-flight refueling) the day of the invasion waiting for my brother the comm operator to receive the signal that never came, until they were told to just turn around and head back home to Eglin.

[mike renfro]

tafnut. According to CNN, the storm dropped to 120 before it hit the beach. Also, a bit to east of Pensacola. Not so bad as Ivan, although the footage of metal and trees flying about looked scary enough for me. I havn't tried my sister yet, I assume they evacuated, but havn't heard anything. The CNN guys on the scene said that all things considered, Pensacola suffered relativly little damage. I don't know if that included the beach.

[MJD]

Sounds like a few people are:

http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/memphis.html

[tafnut]

>The CNN guys>on the scene said that all things considered, Pensacola suffered relativly >little damage. I don't know if that included the beach.<<

Just got a call from Gulf Breeze. Brother-in-law's FEMA trailer is split. Sister-in-law's trailer has a tree on it. Parents-in-law's trailer looks OK. This may be the last straw. Handwriting on the wall says get out now. Strike three and you're out. They may just move inland a little bit. I hear P-cola itself (5 miles more inland) did fine.