Morsi Out


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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:00 pm

jeremyp wrote:Now they're arresting Morsi and top MB people. This goes from bad to worse for rule of law, which has to be the cornerstone of any functional democracy.

They're also shutting down all the independent TV stations that were allowed under Morsi. I don't think it will be long before the protesters start regretting this military coup. As a matter of fact, some of them are already starting complaining about the military's power grab, because if they can do it to a President that you don't like, what's to stop them from doing it to a President that you do like?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 8:25 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:The election was held 17 months after Mubarak's downfall. How long do you think they should have waited? The military deserves a lot of the blame. They were so hellbent on getting one of Mubarak's cronies elected that they put up a maze of qualification restrictions that the Muslim Brotherhood was only group organized enough to navigate through. They also did their best to obstruct Morsi at the beginning of his reign.


17 months is a very short period for any group to get organized after being co-opted or suppressed for decades.

I think one of the problems of our time is that we have an incredibly short attention span. Democracy took many decades and even centuries to take root in many countries where it is stable today. It took the United States 189 years from the Declaration of Independence to the Voting Rights Act of 1965. (And it included a period in which those who did not like the electoral outcome tried to secede from the Union.) Britain needed seven centuries from Magna Carta to the Representation of the People Act 1928. Those things did not happen in a few years.

And there were many setbacks. The French First Republic was followed by emperors and restorations before it reached the Third Republic almost a century later.

Democracy either takes a very long, gradual process or somewhat shorter but tumultuous process. Neither is pretty to watch.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Per Andersen » Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:10 pm

jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 05, 2013 4:21 am

Per Andersen wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?

Well, Islamists are running Turkey and Likudniks, the Jewish equivalent of the Brotherhood, are running Israel. The difference is that those are parliamentary systems which is what I think is needed in Egypt. Under a parliamentary systems, Morsi would have been forced to share power with some of the secular groups in order to put together a coalition, and if he tried to pursue too radical an agenda, the secularists would resign and his government would collapse.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Fri Jul 05, 2013 1:25 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Per Andersen wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote: Morsi's supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood will do everything in their power to make it impossible for the next President to govern if they lose power in this manner.

In power they were well under way to changing the country into a Islamist state. Morsi did nothing to reign them in. Had to go. How can Islamists run a democracy?

Well, Islamists are running Turkey and Likudniks, the Jewish equivalent of the Brotherhood, are running Israel. The difference is that those are parliamentary systems which is what I think is needed in Egypt. Under a parliamentary systems, Morsi would have been forced to share power with some of the secular groups in order to put together a coalition, and if he tried to pursue too radical an agenda, the secularists would resign and his government would collapse.

And then there's Iraq! We instituted a "democracy" and now it's falling apart and the next Prime Minister may be Moqtada al Sadr. He has the largest voting bloc in Parliament. Al Sadr/Democracy is an oxymoron. The MB in Egypt disavowed violence in order to get into politics, but now if they get violent, and their rank and file are ungovernable if the leaders are in jail, there will be an Algerian type civil war. In fact what happened in Egypt mirrors what happened in Algeria when a democratically elected islamic government was never allowed to hold office and the country is now under the thumb of the military. In the middle east and Pakistan and Iran the stronger the military the less likely there will be a democracy, because these militaries are elite officers clubs that have a vested interest in being in charge of the economy and the inevitable handouts.
For Democracy to occur the culture has to change and Islamic countries have always had authoritarian leaders as part of their makeup.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Per Andersen » Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:12 pm

jeremyp wrote:
For Democracy to occur the culture has to change and Islamic countries have always had authoritarian leaders as part of their makeup.

Exactly right. Morsi won the election after democratic principles but he was not prepared to govern after democratic principles. He tolerated violence against opposition.
Him and the MB were gradually changing the country in such ways that a secularist opposition would permanently been out of power in an Islamist state.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:12 am

Per Andersen wrote:
jeremyp wrote:
For Democracy to occur the culture has to change and Islamic countries have always had authoritarian leaders as part of their makeup.

Exactly right. Morsi won the election after democratic principles but he was not prepared to govern after democratic principles. He tolerated violence against opposition.
Him and the MB were gradually changing the country in such ways that a secularist opposition would permanently been out of power in an Islamist state.


Absolutely. The only Islamic country that abides by principles of democracy is Turkey, a couple of far eastern countries may be not that far behind. Christian countries began achieving this by the French and American revolution that clearly declared secularism as a governing principle in spite of vitriolic religious opposition that exists to this day.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby kuha » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:41 am

Pego wrote:
Per Andersen wrote:
jeremyp wrote:
For Democracy to occur the culture has to change and Islamic countries have always had authoritarian leaders as part of their makeup.

Exactly right. Morsi won the election after democratic principles but he was not prepared to govern after democratic principles. He tolerated violence against opposition.
Him and the MB were gradually changing the country in such ways that a secularist opposition would permanently been out of power in an Islamist state.


Absolutely. The only Islamic country that abides by principles of democracy is Turkey, a couple of far eastern countries may be not that far behind. Christian countries began achieving this by the French and American revolution that clearly declared secularism as a governing principle in spite of vitriolic religious opposition that exists to this day.


The well-known danger of fundamentally undemocratic parties using democracy as an access to power is the old slogan: "One Man, One Vote, One Time."
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:23 am

Pego wrote:Absolutely. The only Islamic country that abides by principles of democracy is Turkey, a couple of far eastern countries may be not that far behind.


And a multiple coups in Turkey did not damage democracy there, because the military did not intend to stay in power for the long term.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:04 pm

Per Andersen wrote:Him and the MB were gradually changing the country in such ways that a secularist opposition would permanently been out of power in an Islamist state.

I disagree with this. If the military was strong enough to remove Morsi from office so easily, it was also strong enough to prevent him from cancelling or rigging the election three years from now. If he was really that unpopular, surely the Egyptians would have "thrown the bum out" and replaced him with a secular President who would undo all the theocratic laws and policies that he put in place.

Also, the premise that Islamic parties are incapable of playing by the rules of democracy has already been disproven by Turkey's Justice and Development (AK) Party and Lebanon's Hezbollah, which both have gone through several election cycles without incident. Here's what Hezbollah Chief Hasan Nasrallah had to say when Hezbollah lost the 2009 election:

The secretary-general of Hezbollah, a Shia political party, has accepted that his opposition alliance has lost a parliamentary election in Lebanon to the ruling March 14 coalition.

Hassan Nasrallah made the acknowledgment on Monday, hours after official results of the popular poll were released.

"We accept the official results in a sporting spirit," he said in a televised address.

"I would like to congratulate all those who won, those in the majority and those in the opposition," he said.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeas ... 10848.html

It would have been easy for Hezbollah to claim the election was stolen since all the polls before the election showed them leading. Also, keep in my mind that, unlike in Egypt, In Lebanon Hezbollah is stronger than the army and if they wanted to, they could overthrow the government whenever they feel like it and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:44 pm

Pego wrote:Absolutely. The only Islamic country that abides by principles of democracy is Turkey, a couple of far eastern countries may be not that far behind. Christian countries began achieving this by the French and American revolution that clearly declared secularism as a governing principle in spite of vitriolic religious opposition that exists to this day.

While I agree with your generalization, I think the only difference between Islamic parties in Muslim countries and Fundamentalist Christian movements in the U.S. is that in Islamic countries, religious parties can get a majority of the people to vote for them on election day. But make no mistake, there are many Christian theocrats in the U.S. (Bachmann, Santorum, Palin, Gohmert, Perry, etc.) who are deeply involved in politics and who would gladly turn the U.S. into a Christian theocracy if they could get 51% of the votes.

Also worth mentioning is that Muslims haven't cornered the market on Mideast theocracies since over the last 10-15 years, Likud has gradually turned Israel into a Jewish theocracy that has as much contempt for minority rights as Islamic fundamentalist theocrats do.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Marlow » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:56 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:there are many Christian theocrats in the U.S. (Bachmann, Santorum, Palin, Gohmert, Perry, etc.) who are deeply involved in politics and who would gladly turn the U.S. into a Christian theocracy if they could get 51% of the votes.

Not any more so than it was at its founding, when 'Religious Freedom' essentially meant that you can be any form of Protestantism (Deism included) you want. The Puritans sought religious freedom in America and then promptly turned against other forms of Christianity.
Multiculturalism / religious tolerance is a late 20th Century concept, despite our 'melting pot' reputation. Now with the tide turning against homophobia, we may actually be fulfilling the original mandate of the Republic: All men (and women!) are created equal.
Last edited by Marlow on Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:59 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:But make no mistake, there are many Christian theocrats in the U.S. (Bachmann, Santorum, Palin, Gohmert, Perry, etc.) who are deeply involved in politics and who would gladly turn the U.S. into a Christian theocracy if they could get 51% of the votes.


I have no doubts that it is true they would like to do that. Church/State separation is a thorn in their side. But! This country has a system of government, the checks and balances of its three branches of government, individual states, etc. that such theocracy is virtually impossible to achieve here.

jazzcyclist wrote:Likud has gradually turned Israel into a Jewish theocracy


Your disdain for Likud in general and Netanyahu in particular is well known (at least to me). While there is pressure/influence on him from the ultra-orthodox, he is not in their pocket. On the election day, he can lose and has in the past. There are many things in Israeli politics that I disagree with, but to consider them theocracy on par with Iran for example is a gross exaggeration.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby mump boy » Sat Jul 06, 2013 2:18 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:Absolutely. The only Islamic country that abides by principles of democracy is Turkey, a couple of far eastern countries may be not that far behind. Christian countries began achieving this by the French and American revolution that clearly declared secularism as a governing principle in spite of vitriolic religious opposition that exists to this day.

While I agree with your generalization, I think the only difference between Islamic parties in Muslim countries and Fundamentalist Christian movements in the U.S. is that in Islamic countries, religious parties can get a majority of the people to vote for them on election day. But make no mistake, there are many Christian theocrats in the U.S. (Bachmann, Santorum, Palin, Gohmert, Perry, etc.) who are deeply involved in politics and who would gladly turn the U.S. into a Christian theocracy if they could get 51% of the votes.


They're already trying

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/2 ... 13741.html
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby mump boy » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:44 pm

Can't this little guy be president

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... ys-crisis/

For all our democratic 'superiority' you'd never find a kid like this in UK
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:54 pm

Here are some excerpts from a New York Times article on the reactions of Islamists to the coup:

“The Brotherhood went too fast, they tried to take too much,” Sheik Abu Sidra, an influential ultraconservative Islamist in Benghazi, Libya, said Thursday, a day after the Egyptian military deposed and detained Mr. Morsi and began arresting his Brotherhood allies.

But at the same time, Sheik Abu Sidra said, Mr. Morsi’s overthrow had made it far more difficult for him to persuade Benghazi’s Islamist militias to put down their weapons and trust in democracy.

“Do you think I can sell that to the people anymore?” he asked. “I have been saying all along, ‘If you want to build Shariah law, come to elections.’ Now they will just say, ‘Look at Egypt,’ and you don’t need to say anything else.”

From Benghazi to Abu Dhabi, Islamists are drawing lessons from Mr. Morsi’s ouster that could shape political Islam for a generation. For some, it demonstrated the futility of democracy in a world dominated by Western powers and their client states. But others, acknowledging that the takeover accompanied a broad popular backlash, also faulted the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood for reaching too fast for so many levers of power. . . . .

Their account strikes a chord with fellow Islamists around the region who are all too familiar with the historic turning points when, they say, military crackdowns stole their imminent democratic victories: Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1954; Algeria in 1991; and the Palestinian territories in 2006.

“The message will resonate throughout the Muslim world loud and clear: democracy is not for Muslims,” Essam el-Haddad, Mr. Morsi’s foreign policy adviser, warned on his official Web site shortly before the military detained him and cut off all his communication. The overthrow of an elected Islamist government in Egypt, the symbolic heart of the Arab world, Mr. Haddad wrote, would fuel more violent terrorism than the Western wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And he took aim at Western critics of the Islamists. “The silence of all of those voices with an impending military coup is hypocritical,” Mr. Haddad wrote, “and that hypocrisy will not be lost on a large swath of Egyptians, Arabs and Muslims.”

In Egyptian Sinai just hours later, thousands of Islamists rallied under the black flag of jihad and cheered widely at calls for “a war council” to roll back Mr. Morsi’s ouster. “The age of peacefulness is over,” the speaker declared in a video of the rally. “No more peacefulness after today.”

“No more election after today,” the crowd chanted in response. . . . . .

“Didn’t we do what they asked,” asked Mahmoud Taha, 40, a merchant. “We don’t believe in democracy to begin with; it’s not part of our ideology. But we accepted it. We followed them, and then this is what they do?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/05/world ... wanted=all
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby TN1965 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:12 pm

Why do they have to look at Egypt instead of Tunisia? Because Tunisians are "not Islamist enough"?
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:25 pm

sheik el-Haddad wrote:democracy is not for Muslims


It should say Islamists instead of Muslims and that is exactly what quite a few of us said. They don't want democracy, they want theocracy with Sharia law. End of the story.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:58 pm

Pego wrote:
sheik el-Haddad wrote:democracy is not for Muslims


It should say Islamists instead of Muslims and that is exactly what quite a few of us said. They don't want democracy, they want theocracy with Sharia law. End of the story.

But theocracies come in all forms. Iran is an undemocratic theocracy while Turkey is a democratic theocracy. The difference between Mohamed Morsi and Recep Ergogan is patience. I didn't post all the comments due to space constraints, but many of Morsi's critics are fellow Islamists and even they fault him for going too far too fast.

Other Islamists, though, sought to distance themselves from what they considered the Egyptian Brotherhood’s errors.

As the military takeover began to unfold, Ali Larayedh, the Islamist prime minister of Tunisia, emphasized in a television interview that “an Egypt scenario” was unlikely to befall his Ennahda movement because “our approach is characterized by consensus and partnership.”

Emad al-din al-Rashid, a prominent Syrian Islamist and scholar now based in Istanbul, said that he “expected this to happen” because of the Muslim Brotherhood’s style of governance. “The beginning was a mistake, a sin, and the Brotherhood were running Egypt like they would run a private organization, not a country,” he said. “They shouldn’t have rushed to rule like they did. If they had waited for the second or third elections, the people would have been asking and yearning for them.”

Hisham Krekshi, a senior member of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood in Tripoli, Libya, said the Egyptian Brotherhood “were not transparent enough. They were not sharing enough with other parties. We have to be sure that we are open, to say, ‘We are all Libyans and we have to accept every rainbow color, to work together.’ ”

Translation: It was foolish of Morsi to throw the frog into the pot of boiling water. He should have thrown the frog into a pot of cold water and gradually turned the heat up, because successful democratic leaders are incrementalists, not impatient bulls in a china shop.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:46 am

jazzcyclist wrote:Iran is an undemocratic theocracy while Turkey is a democratic theocracy.


"Democratic theocracy" is an oxymoron. Erdogan would love to implement an Islamist state, but in nearly 100 years, Turkey's democracy has established just enough checks-and-balances (political, administrative, military...) that he cannot do it.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:34 am

Pego wrote:Turkey's democracy has established just enough checks-and-balances (political, administrative, military...) that he cannot do it.

But he is doing it, and he's already gone through three election cycles, and the popularity of his party has continued to increase. In 2002, he got 34.26% of the votes. In 2007, he got 46.58% and in 2011 he got 49.83%. I think what you're getting at is whether a country is democratic first and theocratic second, or theocratic first and democratic second. Turkey is in the former group while Iran and Israel are in the latter group. It seems that some of Morsi's fellow Islamists are criticizing him for not following the Erdogan example, believing that if he had shown patience, he could have eventually reached his destination without undermining democratic principles. Morsi gave his critics every reason to believe that he wanted Egypt to be Islamic first and democratic second and that was his big mistake.

EDIT: The anti-abortion Bible thumpers didn't let Roe vs Wade deter them from trying to ban abortion, they just keep chipping away. Every time a court overthrows one of the laws that they get past a state legislature, they regroup and come up with another scheme. Their latest move to put all sorts of restrictions on the clinics that are allowed to do abortions may turn out to be their most clever yet. In Texas, they have the votes, and it doesn't appear that the federal courts will be able to intervene as long as they argue that these restrictions are for medical safety reasons, despite the fact that everybody knows what their true motive is.
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby Pego » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:53 am

I think you are giving way too big a slack to the Islamists and way too little to Turkey or Israel. Once again, throwing Iran and Israel in the same bag blows my mind. We clearly disagree on this, let's quit before we both get kicked in the ass :wink: .
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jeremyp » Sun Jul 07, 2013 7:16 am

Pego wrote:I think you are giving way too big a slack to the Islamists and way too little to Turkey or Israel. Once again, throwing Iran and Israel in the same bag blows my mind. We clearly disagree on this, let's quit before we both get kicked in the ass :wink: .

Certainly comparing Iran and Israel in similar terms is ludicrous, but there is little doubt that the future of Israel seems to hinge on how the quickly growing Haredim fit in with the still majority secular Israelis. In a democratic country with multi parties a powerful growing minority can wreak havoc with government. Heck look at what's happening with our two party system with archaic congressional procedures that give a losing side power to create deadlock. Interesting piece in the NYT on the Haredim this morning. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/07/world ... ml?hp&_r=0
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Re: Morsi Out

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:55 pm

jeremyp wrote:Certainly comparing Iran and Israel in similar terms is ludicrous, but there is little doubt that the future of Israel seems to hinge on how the quickly growing Haredim fit in with the still majority secular Israelis. In a democratic country with multi parties a powerful growing minority can wreak havoc with government. Heck look at what's happening with our two party system with archaic congressional procedures that give a losing side power to create deadlock. Interesting piece in the NYT on the Haredim this morning. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/07/world ... ml?hp&_r=0

1) I never said that Israel = Iran. My point is that in both nations, there are numerous instances in which religious ideology trumps democratic principles.

2) If you think that Haredim is Israel's biggest problem, you're ignoring the giant elephant in the room.
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