Normally open July 4th only---the one day a year when partisan politics, religion, etc. are acceptable topics on this Board. (The 2012 window is now closed; thanks for playing.)
I just read an interesting tidbit: the election could be over shortly after 7pm EST, when the polls close in VA.
If Obama takes the expected states on the east coast (New England, Tri-State, MD+DC), he'll get 117 EVs. Add in the other expected states in the mid-west and west (MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI), and he has 264.
VA would give him 13 EVs. Even if he doesn't win all of ME's EVs, or even NM, it could be a done deal before us west coasters get home from work!
350 - Obama, 188 - McCain.
And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.
Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot!
rasb wrote:350 - Obama, 188 - McCain. And if I thought that all 'Mericans watched the speech that Obama just gave in Cleveland, the numbers would be higher. Very, very powerful. And, yes, of course I realize it's only words, but "that one" is very, very bright.
I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.
I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever.
I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't.
mojo wrote:I have heard his latest speech so many times I know most of it by heart but his latest in North Carolina was so strong. I teared up when he did talking about his grandmother.
I have not felt this kind of connection to a public figure, especially a politician, ever.
I am too nervous to believe he is actually going to win- I mean I know he will but i am afraid he won't.
Marlow wrote:Most polls had Obama with a 6% lead 52-46 several days ago, but they've already started to close together. I'm hoping that it gets down to 50-48 by tomorrow night, so we'll have a record turn-out, which I think favors Obama . . . a lot. If people think Obama's win is a done deal, that could increase the Pucker Factor a lot!
"Narrowing" is hardly happening on the Fox poll and the one by Investors Business Daily, and even these are growing relative to the recent past. One poll showed tightening when a vastly under-sample 18-25 group was filtered (likely voter models) to be 75/25 M/O; about as likely as a regular on this board winning NYC next year.
If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.
26mi235 wrote:If you divide the polls into those that poll cell phones and those that do not, the ones that poll cell users are 5% higher -- do you really think that the landline group is the same as the much younger (and hipper?) cell-only crew? This is the last election that they make that mistake.
