The Economy


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The Economy

Postby Double R Bar » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:12 pm

Anyone else out there getting nervous about our economy? The stock market is dropping, financial institutions are folding, and we've got a war that's costing millions of dollars a day. I don't usually get very concerned, however I have in the past three weeks.
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Postby kuha » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:47 pm

Uh, yes....
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Postby Marlow » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:49 pm

I'm hoping the candidates are forced to come up with specific reforms/ideas about the economy. The economic issues should decide the election.
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Postby SQUACKEE » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:00 pm

Finding out all my 401k money was in the hands of a company that was sold today cause me to pause for a second.
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Postby guru » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:00 pm

Oil is back below $100 and falling fast.

One thing you can set your watch to - when the US economy tanks, everyone else is sure to follow, bringing the dollar back to life. Hope all you oil bulls got out last month.
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Postby observer2 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:13 pm

Maybe it´s connected to the "big bang-thread"

Malow wrote:

What's the worst that could happen?. They inadvertently destroy all matter in our universe? Just think of it as a reboot of the system. 8-)
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Postby rasb » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:18 pm

No, it's okay. "The fundamentals of the ecomony are strong", I just heard :)
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Postby kuha » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:24 pm

rasb wrote:No, it's okay. "The fundamentals of the ecomony are strong", I just heard :)


And we were going to sweep the 800 at Beijing!
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Postby Double R Bar » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:48 pm

See why I"m nervous? We didn't even get anyone in the finals of the 800!
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Postby catson52 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 2:38 pm

SQUACKEE wrote:Finding out all my 401k money was in the hands of a company that was sold today cause me to pause for a second.


I was wondering when this topic would make the thread. If you are serious about what has just happened re your 401K "holders", please keep us informed about further "episodes". This has been my worst nightmare for many years. Hope the 401s work out and no real financial losses involved for you.
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Postby catson52 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 2:42 pm

guru wrote:Oil is back below $100 and falling fast.

One thing you can set your watch to - when the US economy tanks, everyone else is sure to follow, bringing the dollar back to life. Hope all you oil bulls got out last month.


The problem is that if the US economy really tanks, all our "creditors" may decide to pull out their money (China, India, Middle East). Of course the whole world economy would then tank, making the Great Depression look like a picnic. Cheerful scenario, for retirees in particular. :!:
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Postby dukehjsteve » Mon Sep 15, 2008 2:43 pm

I'm losing my shirt. On that score, I counted my polo shirts, and I have 41 of them. $ 5 apiece or highest offers above that will be considered....
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Postby lonewolf » Mon Sep 15, 2008 3:10 pm

I am not an economist, which I hold to be a positive, but as a long time observer and participant in several recessions, depressions and "market adjustments", not to be a Pollyanna, but if you are not unduly leveraged, just sit tight and it will work itself out. Buy if you have the money.
The Dow is down 5%. In October 1987 it dropped 24% and worked its way back in about 18 months. If you live long enough the market will recover. if you don't, it will not be your problem
Merrill Lynch is just a handler of stocks. If you did not own ML stock, its sale should not affect the value of your underlying stocks or other assests.
Lehman Brothers, not as simple.
The Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac mess is a mess. Lots of $$$$ involved but actually only a miniscule pecentage of mortgages nationwide. Tough love but those who over-extended and the lending organizations who abetted them should be allowed to bite the bullet.
In the interest of full disclosure, I say this from the perspective of one whose primary income is from oil and gas. I have un-mixed emotions about oil prices. I pucker up at $4.00/gallon gasoline like anyone else but when oil drops from $150 to $100/bbl.....do the math. Personally, I am much better off paying more for retail gasoline .
Exasperating the situation, operational and capital costs escalated right along with the well head price of crude oil so I will be paying for expenses incurred based on $150 oil out of $100 oil. On the other hand, I sold oil, briefly, for 150/bbl from wells drilled at costs prevailing when oil was $20/bbl, so, in the long run, it all balances out.....if you don't bail out.

Moral: Don't panic.
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Postby bad hammy » Mon Sep 15, 2008 4:09 pm

lonewolf wrote:Exasperating the situation . . .

This is only the second time in my over 50 years of hanging around this joint called Earth that I have read or heard the word exasperating in this context, one where I would always use exacerbating. The first time was at a seminar by a very smart computer guy a few years back, and it sent me to the dictionary, and I was rather shocked to find it was OK.

As for the econ problem, historically I agree with your analysis - other than the Great Depression these things are typically relatively short lived. On the other hand . . .
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Postby lonewolf » Mon Sep 15, 2008 5:35 pm

It is both exasperating and exacerbating, hammy. I debated internally briefly and thought about using both but decided it was redundant and would just be showing off. And, I like to equalize wear and tear on my vocabulary... and dictionary.

On further review, exacerbating would better fit the sentence structure. :oops:
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Postby jhc68 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:09 pm

Seems like the more the talking heads on TV reassure all us peons that our savings and retirement accounts are secure, the more I tend to want to cash out and hide it all in a coffee can under the house. Anyone have the same reaction?
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Postby Daisy » Mon Sep 15, 2008 7:13 pm

lonewolf wrote:Moral: Don't panic.


Reminds me of a British sit com.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do
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Postby jamese1045 » Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:19 pm

rasb wrote:No, it's okay. "The fundamentals of the ecomony are strong", I just heard :)


Yeah, you're going to keep hearing that, from McCain, from Wall Street, from all the usual sources.... usually right after another bank bites the dust.

What can they say? "Flee!!!" "Grab your money and run!" The banks are failing, the sky is falling...?"
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Postby catson52 » Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:46 am

Daisy wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Moral: Don't panic.


Reminds me of a British sit com.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do


Not necessarily disagreeing with lonewolf, but one wonders when the Big One will arrive as part of the "cycle", as in the late 1920s. Having received some of my high school education in Britain, I love most of the Brit Com, and this is one of the better ones (scenes).
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Postby Kevin Richardson » Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:50 am

I had to laugh yesterday when I heard Rush Limbaugh say that this is the fault of all the liberals responsible for regulating the business community. His argument is that we should remove all regulation on lending and associated industries. I guess we should start by getting out all of the liberals the current president put into those oversight positions. 8-)
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Postby cullman » Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:26 am

rasb wrote:No, it's okay. "The fundamentals of the ecomony are strong", I just heard :)

I heard that little gem from our Prime Minister. Did coffee shoot out of your nostrils too??

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Postby Pego » Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:28 am

I keep reminding myself all of the things lonewolf said, but it's hard not to worry.
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Postby Aiden » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:11 am

Frankly, it's good to have nothing. I don't spend much time worrying about hanging on to it. :wink:
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Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:28 am

Pego wrote:I keep reminding myself all of the things lonewolf said, but it's hard not to worry.


Worrying accomplishes nothin. Its time for action and i intend to drink heavily. :P
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Postby Helen S » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:31 am

Aiden wrote:Frankly, it's good to have nothing. I don't spend much time worrying about hanging on to it. :wink:


I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."
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Postby Marlow » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:36 am

Aiden wrote:Frankly, it's good to have nothing. I don't spend much time worrying about hanging on to it. :wink:

Until such time as we don't need schools any more and the US government can't print my Navy retirement check any more, I'm happy as a clam. If and when that day does come, I'll just stand in the soup-line with everyone else. 8-)
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Postby Aiden » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:51 am

Helen S wrote:
Aiden wrote:Frankly, it's good to have nothing. I don't spend much time worrying about hanging on to it. :wink:


I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."


Ah, but I think you misunderstand me. If I may say so, I work quite hard and when not at work I'm busy with many other things that are anything but leisure. It's just that most of it either doesn't pay or it doesn't pay well. There's another less sophisticated sounding line I've always liked: you can't take it with you. I'm just not afraid of losing it all, partly because life has developed this trait in me, but admittedly because I don't have much.

Oh, and because I've lost it all before.
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Postby cullman » Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:19 am

observer2 wrote:Maybe it´s connected to the "big bang-thread"

Malow wrote:

What's the worst that could happen?. They inadvertently destroy all matter in our universe? Just think of it as a reboot of the system. 8-)

It could also be connected to the "Forced Rectal Exam" thread.

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Postby lonewolf » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:53 am

Helen S wrote:
I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."


I like that line too and it may be true but in my lifetime I have approached both ends of the economic spectrum but apparently not near enough to reach the leisure phase of either..
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Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:01 am

For your learning and understanding:

Audio - on Booms and Busts - 30 mins
http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/misesci ... French.mp3

Article - on Fannie Mae and ...
http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/misesci ... ckwell.mp3

Audio - on Hamilton and Central Banking - 30 mins
http://mises.org/multimedia/mp3/misesci ... orenzo.mp3

Unfortunately, Obama and McCain don't have the answers.
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Postby SQUACKEE » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:09 am

lonewolf wrote:
Helen S wrote:
I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."


I like that line too and it may be true but in my lifetime I have approached both ends of the economic spectrum but apparently not near enough to reach the leisure phase of either..


I think i did enjoy leisure on the low end when i was 21. Shared a room that i crashed in. 50 bucks a month. No car. Rode bike to work- 20 hours a week as a janitor at a resturant where i could "borrow" a baked potato for dinner. Often would be vacuming with a beer in my hand since no one was around.
Spent hours and hours smoking pot, playing guitar, drinking beer and running. Of course it couldnt last but looking back it was pretty damn leisurely. :D
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Postby paulthefan » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:51 am

Helen S wrote: I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."


timeless wisdom for sure, it should be added that at those two ends lie the most durable tax shelters congress can design.
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Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:05 pm

paulthefan wrote:
Helen S wrote: I always liked the line "At either end of the economic scale there lies a leisure class."


timeless wisdom for sure, it should be added that at those two ends lie the most durable tax shelters congress can design.


Makes you wonder about how much they care about the middle classes
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Postby paulthefan » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:04 pm

proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
Makes you wonder about how much they care about the middle classes


not at all.
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Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:14 pm

paulthefan wrote:
proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
Makes you wonder about how much they care about the middle classes


not at all.


The most operative word in your previous post - 'design'
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Postby paulthefan » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:16 pm

proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
paulthefan wrote:
proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
Makes you wonder about how much they care about the middle classes


not at all.


The most operative word in your previous post - 'design'


I meant only that it does not make one wonder.
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Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:21 pm

paulthefan wrote:
proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
paulthefan wrote:
proofs in the pudd'in wrote:
Makes you wonder about how much they care about the middle classes


not at all.


The most operative word in your previous post - 'design'


I meant only that it does not make one wonder.


I thought that was a possibility. Oh but it should :cry:
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Postby proofs in the pudd'in » Tue Sep 16, 2008 1:38 pm

Here is a nice little article on the Fed and the middle class and on leisure.

http://mises.org/story/2983#
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Postby Conor Dary » Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:04 pm

I thought this comment by Princeton economist Paul Krugman in the NYTimes yesterday was interesting.

"Will the U.S. financial system collapse today, or maybe over the next few days? I don’t think so — but I’m nowhere near certain."
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Postby richxx87 » Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:05 pm

Aiden wrote:Frankly, it's good to have nothing. I don't spend much time worrying about hanging on to it. :wink:


Janis summed it up:
Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose.
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