the Boston bombers thread


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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [1 suspect shot; manhunt on]

Postby Per Andersen » Fri Apr 19, 2013 9:31 pm

26mi235 wrote:We will have to see what links there are with the older brother; there is some indication of foreign links.

He spent about 6 months in Russia and Chechnya during 2012. I think he gradually approached the Islamist camp. Had no friends in America, did not understand them but wanted to box for the US in the Oympics! It seems his younger brother was much more Americanized, spoke with no accent, liked partying etc.
But I want to know this: Why were they near MIT? There is an atomic research reactor there. Co-incidence? Also how many weapons did they have and bombing material. How were they lugging all this stuff around. What is known about the place they lived?
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [1 suspect shot; manhunt on]

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:26 pm

They were near MIT because all of that stuff is close by; they lived not far from there. The research reactor is not much of a risk, I do not think (I will ask the expert in a few minutes and revise this if she thinks otherwise - she has three strong areas relevant to that question).
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [1 suspect shot; manhunt on]

Postby shivfan » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:49 pm

Well, the older brother came to America aged 15, and the younger one aged eight I think, so while the older one may have Chechen influences, the younger one has spent his formative years in America....

There are possibly issues of domestic terrorism of a different sort to find answers for here...what would make an American citizen who happens to be Muslim want to become a terrorist in his own country? Islamophobia? These are just questions that those who plan for the future will need to address....
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [suspects on video?]

Postby eldanielfire » Sat Apr 20, 2013 2:08 am

Tuariki wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:The reports say that they might be brothers from Russian Caucasus. If they turn out to be Chechnyan terrorists, I would be totally clueless, never having expected anything of this sort. While Chechnyan terrorists are Muslims, their cause is a lot more nationalistic than religious.

What I don't understand is how attacking the U.S. could further their cause. SHouldn't they be trying to kill Russians?

These people all believe that the USA is the great Satan, not Russia.

When I was Minister of Immigration for NZ in the late 1990s I tried to bring in lie detector tests as an interview option when considering the grant of residence status for those being considered under the refugee asylum options. For example, depending on your origin and/or background I would ask asylum seekers questions such as:
1. Were you orgasmically happy watching the events of 911? or perhaps
2. Do you believe in honour killing?
3. Were you ecstatic when Lord Mountbatten was blown to smithereens by the IRA?

If they set the bells off on answering, then the decision on their application is easy - you can go back to your sh** hole. My theory was that on the balance of probabilities their answers convinced me I did not want such people in NZ. Unfortunately the woolly lefty liberal civil servants that dominate every Government Department in NZ were able to roadblock this idea until such time as I was no longer Minster.


If you think some muslims, especially Chechyans in the separatist camp, don't hate Russia you really have little knowledge of the matter. However Russia has a unique position that some muslim groups hate or fera each other and Russia is basically the biggest stabilising force in parts of the middle east. Hence why the USA, Uk and France shouldn't have overridden them on Syria which is increasingly getting fucked up.

Also lie detectors are bollocks. Marion Jones defeated it with no problems.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [suspects on video?]

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 5:09 am

eldanielfire wrote:Also lie detectors are bollocks. Marion Jones defeated it with no problems.


Logical fallicy: because there is one counter example, all cases will 'fail' [It is cold in Madison in the winter -- It was 68 degrees on February 13, 1992, so Madison is not cold in the winter.]
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [suspects on video?]

Postby Pego » Sat Apr 20, 2013 5:14 am

26mi235 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Also lie detectors are bollocks. Marion Jones defeated it with no problems.


Logical fallicy: because there is one counter example, all cases will 'fail' [It is cold in Madison in the winter -- It was 68 degrees on February 13, 1992, so Madison is not cold in the winter.]


I am not going to argue principles of logic :wink: , but eldanielfire is correct in his position that a polygraph as a reliable interrogation tool has been thoroughly discredited.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish

Postby Halfmiler2 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 7:41 am

jeremyp wrote:
Halfmiler2 wrote:
jeremyp wrote:The fact that it was Patriot's day and that Oklahoma City and Waco were on Patriot's day might mean a home grown terrorist attack. Might!


You could just as easily suggest that a foreign terrorist would target the middle of the pack which is largely American as opposed to the top finishers which were largely not American. I suggest letting the investigators do their work and see what they find. And pray for the victims and their families.

Which is why I used the word: Might! 2x.


And why you would have been better off using the words "might not" instead.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish

Postby Daisy » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:37 am

jeremyp's point seemed like valid speculation to me. And we're all still speculating about the motive. It's human.

As to Madison avg temps in Feb, the avg high is 67 so that's not too far off.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 10:29 am

Actually, since 1948, the maximum 'on-the-hour' reading for Madison has never been as high as 67. The is one year with a 66, two with 65, four with 64, and two with 63. Thus, only one year in seven has a temperature reading that high, and since any reading between 65.1 and 66.0 gets recorded as 66, there is probably no value in those 65 years that is probably as high as 66. only 0.5% of February days has a high reading of 62.1 or higher.

Lie detector tests do not have 100% accuracy, but they have a lot higher accuracy than 0%.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Pego » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:41 am

26mi235 wrote:Lie detector tests do not have 100% accuracy, but they have a lot higher accuracy than 0%.


Yes, more than 0%, but not nearly enough to be reliable.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Friar » Sat Apr 20, 2013 11:44 am

" did not understand them "
--------------------------------
His wife comes from a beach community in RI. If he dropped by Scarborough on a summer day he would understand.

I think this is a no good deed goes unpunished type of thing. He's allowed to come here, probably treated well, attends a top public HS, maybe gets some college financial aid (the living kid supposedly isn't paying to attend UM/D) accepted by in-laws (why?)

It all just builds resentment in a certain type of personality that thinks his way is the only way but the western world is rockin to something else.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby kuha » Sat Apr 20, 2013 2:21 pm

Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Lie detector tests do not have 100% accuracy, but they have a lot higher accuracy than 0%.


Yes, more than 0%, but not nearly enough to be reliable.


At a theoretical 50% accuracy, it's a complete waste of time--no better than flipping a coin. And even at 95% accuracy (which ain't the case), there's more than enough doubt to make the whole exercise useless.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Apr 20, 2013 4:12 pm

kuha wrote:
Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Lie detector tests do not have 100% accuracy, but they have a lot higher accuracy than 0%.


Yes, more than 0%, but not nearly enough to be reliable.


At a theoretical 50% accuracy, it's a complete waste of time--no better than flipping a coin. And even at 95% accuracy (which ain't the case), there's more than enough doubt to make the whole exercise useless.


Worse than that, it is reliable enough, or rather appears to be, to think it is infallible which it certainly is not.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [suspects on video?]

Postby Tuariki » Sat Apr 20, 2013 4:52 pm

eldanielfire wrote:If you think some muslims, especially Chechyan in the separatist camp, don't hate Russia you really have little knowledge of the matter. However Russia has a unique position that some muslim groups hate or fera each other and Russia is basically the biggest stabilising force in parts of the middle east. Hence why the USA, Uk and France shouldn't have overridden them on Syria which is increasingly getting fucked up.

That is not what I said. I am well aware that many Chechnyan's, especially those who are Muslim separatists, hate Russia. However, I also believe that all radical Muslim separatists from all over the world,including those of Chechnya believe the USA to be the great Satan, over and above their hatred for other countries such as Russia.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish [suspects on video?]

Postby Tuariki » Sat Apr 20, 2013 5:17 pm

Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Also lie detectors are bollocks. Marion Jones defeated it with no problems.

Logical fallicy: because there is one counter example, all cases will 'fail' [It is cold in Madison in the winter -- It was 68 degrees on February 13, 1992, so Madison is not cold in the winter.]

I am not going to argue principles of logic :wink: , but eldanielfire is correct in his position that a polygraph as a reliable interrogation tool has been thoroughly discredited.


Conor Dary wrote:
kuha wrote:
Pego wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Lie detector tests do not have 100% accuracy, but they have a lot higher accuracy than 0%.

Yes, more than 0%, but not nearly enough to be reliable.

At a theoretical 50% accuracy, it's a complete waste of time--no better than flipping a coin. And even at 95% accuracy (which ain't the case), there's more than enough doubt to make the whole exercise useless.

Worse than that, it is reliable enough, or rather appears to be, to think it is infallible which it certainly is not.

I believe lie detector tests would be a useful tool to assist an immigration officer to decide on the balance of probabilities whether or not to grant someone residence status in NZ. I have very little faith in the ability of NZ immigration officers to be able to determine through a face to face interview if a person is a potential risk to NZ. I fully realise and acknowledge that lie detector tests are not 100% accurate. However, I am not talking about deciding a person's guilt in a criminal case. All sovereign countries have the right to decide who can enter the country. A lie detector test wold simply be another tool an immigration officer can use in making a decision on this person's risk profile.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby gh » Sat Apr 20, 2013 9:31 pm

Tuariki: cease & desist.

this is not a request
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Tuariki » Sat Apr 20, 2013 10:23 pm

Will do
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby BillVol » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:48 am

"The bureau declined to answer questions Saturday about whether it revisited its 2011 investigation of Tamerlan Tsarnaev after the Marathon attack, or why the bureau was unable to identify the suspects in race day security footage two years after interviewing him and his family."

http://www.boston.com/news/local/2013/04/20/fbi-was-warned-years-ago-alleged-bomber-radical-shift/mprN4HgqqUcYoxlgrWPcOP/story.html

"The younger brother, Dzhokhar, 19, fled on foot, somehow eluding police and beginning a widespread search by thousands of federal agents and state and local officers."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-string-of-events-involving-tsarnaev-brothers-unfolded/2013/04/19/629d19c6-a929-11e2-8302-3c7e0ea97057_story.html
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Pego » Sun Apr 21, 2013 10:44 am

As the reports keep coming in, it appears that no big mystery exists and Tamerlan was just a garden variety fanatical jihadist.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish

Postby Daisy » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:36 am

26mi235 wrote:
Daisy wrote:As to Madison avg temps in Feb, the avg high is 67 so that's not too far off.

Actually, since 1948, the maximum 'on-the-hour' reading for Madison has never been as high as 67.

I don't think you hit the link. :mrgreen: I guess you're talking about this one the?
Last edited by Daisy on Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:37 am

BillVol wrote:"The bureau declined to answer questions Saturday about whether it revisited its 2011 investigation of Tamerlan Tsarnaev after the Marathon attack, or why the bureau was unable to identify the suspects in race day security footage two years after interviewing him and his family."

http://www.boston.com/news/local/2013/04/20/fbi-was-warned-years-ago-alleged-bomber-radical-shift/mprN4HgqqUcYoxlgrWPcOP/story.html

"The younger brother, Dzhokhar, 19, fled on foot, somehow eluding police and beginning a widespread search by thousands of federal agents and state and local officers."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-string-of-events-involving-tsarnaev-brothers-unfolded/2013/04/19/629d19c6-a929-11e2-8302-3c7e0ea97057_story.html


If you're attempting to support your earlier questions all you are doing is pointing out that media representatives can be just as unrealistic with their expectations of law enforcement as you are yourself.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby gh » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:41 am

Pego wrote:As the reports keep coming in, it appears that no big mystery exists and Tamerlan was just a garden variety fanatical jihadist.


How delightfully ironic that the kid will wake up in Beth Israel hospital.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Friar » Sun Apr 21, 2013 12:41 pm

expectations of law enforcement

While LE seem to be getting high marks I don't think upon more serious examination the good feelings are going to hold up.
Even without any photographic evidence I would hope that all "watch list" residents of greater Boston would have been picked up as a matter of course. That apparently wasn't something that was attempted in the aftermath.

the kid

The media like to describe him as a strong student but he attends the lower rated of the three UMass campuses and apparently he's flunking.
He went back to school --about 50 miles SE--after the bombings. The two apparently thought they would go back to life as they knew it. Not too bright .
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:57 pm

Daisy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
Daisy wrote:As to Madison avg temps in Feb, the avg high is 67 so that's not too far off.

Actually, since 1948, the maximum 'on-the-hour' reading for Madison has never been as high as 67.

I don't think you hit the link. :mrgreen: I guess you're talking about this one the?


Actually, I was using the 8760 hours/year x 65 years of hourly data for Madison to do these statistics. No reliance on someone else's possibly flawed statistics.
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Re: Explosions at Boston finish

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:04 pm

Daisy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
Daisy wrote:As to Madison avg temps in Feb, the avg high is 67 so that's not too far off.

Actually, since 1948, the maximum 'on-the-hour' reading for Madison has never been as high as 67.

I don't think you hit the link. :mrgreen: I guess you're talking about this one the?


Actually, I was using the 8760 hours/year x 65 years of hourly data for Madison to do these statistics. No reliance on someone else's possibly flawed statistics.

By the way, I do distinctly remember that very warm February day. It was a Sunday and we went for a ~50 mile ride relatively early on Sunday and when returning on Seminole and through the Arb there were bikes upon bikes going the other way. I rode home via the Zoo and Micheal's Frozen Custard and I am not sure that I have ever seen either one of them more packed. The Zoo was definitely a hazard to ride past, even with a group of racing cyclists to ride with because there were so many (many, many, many) people driving around looking for a place to park (leaving the car at home and walking was the best choice for anyone less than a mile away). [It was sad to see Micheal's closed this winter :(
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby kevinsdad » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:36 pm

Friar wrote:
expectations of law enforcement

While LE seem to be getting high marks I don't think upon more serious examination the good feelings are going to hold up.
Even without any photographic evidence I would hope that all "watch list" residents of greater Boston would have been picked up as a matter of course. That apparently wasn't something that was attempted in the aftermath.


I hope that by "picked up" you mean questioned, as, thankfully, we still can't "pick up," i.e. arrest, persons in this country on suspicion alone. I think the law enforcement decision most open to criticism was restricting the search to a 20 block perimeter. Picked for no other reason, I suspect, than being a nice round number, it was a perimeter that even a seriously wounded suspect escaped. A healthy suspect would have been long gone. It reminded me of all those seasons of 24, when the bad guys always escaping the perimeter became an invariable plot device/running joke.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby BillVol » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:45 pm

Dutra5 wrote:If you're attempting to support your earlier questions all you are doing is pointing out that media representatives can be just as unrealistic with their expectations of law enforcement as you are yourself.


Oh, OK.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:02 pm

gh wrote:
Pego wrote:As the reports keep coming in, it appears that no big mystery exists and Tamerlan was just a garden variety fanatical jihadist.


How delightfully ironic that the kid will wake up in Beth Israel hospital.


That occurred to me as well.

BTW...reports are the kid cannot speak, may not ever be able to speak as he was shot in the throat and the NYT says there's some thought of a failed suicide attempt.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:07 pm

kevinsdad wrote:
Friar wrote:
expectations of law enforcement

While LE seem to be getting high marks I don't think upon more serious examination the good feelings are going to hold up.
Even without any photographic evidence I would hope that all "watch list" residents of greater Boston would have been picked up as a matter of course. That apparently wasn't something that was attempted in the aftermath.


I hope that by "picked up" you mean questioned, as, thankfully, we still can't "pick up," i.e. arrest, persons in this country on suspicion alone. I think the law enforcement decision most open to criticism was restricting the search to a 20 block perimeter. Picked for no other reason, I suspect, than being a nice round number, it was a perimeter that even a seriously wounded suspect escaped. A healthy suspect would have been long gone. It reminded me of all those seasons of 24, when the bad guys always escaping the perimeter became an invariable plot device/running joke.


I'm not sure the older brother was on any "watch list" in the first place. The perimeter I thought was set up based on the fact that blood was found moving away from the shootout scene giving the thought that he was within a pretty small area.

Most police work involves putting tips and evidence together.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:59 am

gh wrote:
Pego wrote:As the reports keep coming in, it appears that no big mystery exists and Tamerlan was just a garden variety fanatical jihadist.


How delightfully ironic that the kid will wake up in Beth Israel hospital.

The way I understand these things, it's probably no more ironic than a Hamas operative waking up in a Moscow hospital. After Hamas won the 2006 elections, Russia was one of the first governments to recognize them and they followed that up by inviting their leaders to Moscow for an official state visit. Additionally, Russia has been a steadfast and reliable supporter the Palestinian cause at the U.N. Security Council in recent years. Consequently, both Hamas and Hezbollah rebuffed efforts by the Chechen rebels who tried to recruit them to their cause against Moscow, and both groups condemned the Beslan school massacre. So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Pego » Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:36 am

jazzcyclist wrote:So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.


This may be so, but Tamerlan appears to have been espousing Muslim jihad causes rather than being a Chechen separatist.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby lonewolf » Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:01 am

Pego wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.


This may be so, but Tamerlan appears to have been espousing Muslim jihad causes rather than being a Chechen separatist.

It seems so.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:29 am

Pego wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.


This may be so, but Tamerlan appears to have been espousing Muslim jihad causes rather than being a Chechen separatist.

But I don't think Muslim jihadists really care that much about the Palestinian issue, rather they occasionally use it was a rallying cry because they know that it resonates accross the Arab/Muslim world even among secular, westernized Muslims who despise the jihadists. There are recordings of Osama bin Laden talking about the Palestinians when he didn't think anyone was listening and he actually despised them, mainly because they were secularist that were too tolerant of and too assimilated with Christians, and they were too westernized on social issues such as women's rights. Keep in mind that Yasir Arafat's wife is Christian and both Hamas and Hezbollah have Christian members.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Pego » Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:34 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.


This may be so, but Tamerlan appears to have been espousing Muslim jihad causes rather than being a Chechen separatist.

But I don't think Muslim jihadists really care that much about the Palestinian issue, rather they occasionally use it was a rallying cry because they know that it resonates accross the Arab/Muslim world even among secular, westernized Muslims who despise the jihadists. There are recordings of Osama bin Laden talking about the Palestinians when he didn't think anyone was listening and he actually despised them, mainly because they were secularist that were too tolerant of and too assimilated with Christians, and they were too westernized on social issues such as women's rights. Keep in mind that Yasir Arafat's wife is Christian and both Hamas and Hezbollah have Christian members.


You keep bringing up the Palestinian issue here. Did the Tsarnayevs care for the Palestinian issue? If they did, I would have missed it.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:06 am

Pego wrote:You keep bringing up the Palestinian issue here. Did the Tsarnayevs care for the Palestinian issue? If they did, I would have missed it.

I was only commenting on gh's post about the irony of the surviving Tsarnayev waking up in Beth Israel Hospital. Perhaps I wrongly presumed that he was indirectly alluding to the Israel-Arab conflict.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby batonless relay » Mon Apr 22, 2013 10:24 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:You keep bringing up the Palestinian issue here. Did the Tsarnayevs care for the Palestinian issue? If they did, I would have missed it.

I was only commenting on gh's post about the irony of the surviving Tsarnayev waking up in Beth Israel Hospital. Perhaps I wrongly presumed that he was indirectly alluding to the Israel-Arab conflict.

I have to confess: I presumed the same thing of gh's post.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby lonewolf » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:23 am

I instantly saw the irony of taking #2 to Beth Israel.
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Friar » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:48 pm

Public seems to be catching on a bit and starting to ask some questions. Will police look as competent as they did a few days ago? I don't think so. It's good the FBI took their bows quickly.

This is where the press which has been taking a beating in some quarters has a chance to do some good work. The aftermath shouldn't be about prayer, singing, signs, slogans, et. al. Let's get some real information out there, debunk the fake story-lines with facts, demand some accountability (as well as help for the inj).

A few oddities:
~ The boat guy hasn't been talking. So his neighbors stand in his yard and comment to open mic's?
~ The dead guy's mom in-law supposedly put her N.Kingston house up for sale Sun.
~ The nude guy seems to have disappeared?
~ The Jewish gal "Rose" (R&Latin/Columbia) has had a lot to say to TV cameras.
~ They want to take the kid alive yet riddle a small boat with gunshots? Did he even fire one round from the boat in what's been called a "firefight."
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby lonewolf » Mon Apr 22, 2013 2:39 pm

Friar wrote: ~ They want to take the kid alive yet riddle a small boat with gunshots? Did he even fire one round from the boat in what's been called a "firefight."

Been curious about that myself.. :?
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Re: the Boston bombers thread

Postby Per Andersen » Mon Apr 22, 2013 9:57 pm

Pego wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:So my guess is that the Chechens are as unsympathetic to the Arab cause as Arabs are to their cause.


This may be so, but Tamerlan appears to have been espousing Muslim jihad causes rather than being a Chechen separatist.

It's all quite fluid. Dagestan is a hot bed for muslim jihadists. There are Chechnyans fighting with the Taliban. I think it's useless to speculate about whether Terrorist #1 and Terrorist#2 felt more connected to the Checnyan cause than to general Jihadism. They were both getting there.
Of course these guys would be anti Jew, That comes with the territory.

I have to say I think the FBI blew it with Terrorist # 1 traveling to Russia, Dagestan and Chechnya for 6 months. After the warnings from the Russians they have talked about possible spelling errors in the guy's Aeroflot tickets. What about his passport?
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