WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now closed)


A place for the discussion of all things not closely related to the sport and its competitive side. (as always, locked for the duration of major international championship)

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:05 am

Pego wrote:Wall Street seems displeased today.


    There are many lists now circulating of the biggest winners and losers from the election; oddly, however, none of the lists I’ve seen mentions just how bad this result is for Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:07 am

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Cooter Brown wrote:Who knew that running an anti-immigrant, anti-woman, anti-middle & working class, anti-gay, anti-science, anti-minority, pro-war, pro-theocracy platform would result in colossal failure?

I guess that is one way to look at it. In contrast, I was wondering how they could do so well.

Zackly!!

kuha wrote:there are media outlets that enthusiastically feed these pathetic delusions.

Oh MAN, I can't wait to see how Jon Stewart mercilessly skewers Fox News (sic) tonight!!! :lol:


Especially Rove's meltdown on Fox...hee, hee,...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/0 ... ll-in-play
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:14 am

well, between reading all these messages here, and finding out that every Facebook friend I have is now a deep political thinker, there goes half my morning!
gh
 
Posts: 46335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby kuha » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:20 am

aaronk wrote:11. And finally (Though there's TONS more I could reveal!!)


To be as charitable as possible, I think not. She is yesterday's media flurry, nothing more. Her "moment" was brief and is long gone; she has no politcial future at all on the national stage.
kuha
 
Posts: 9034
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: 3rd row, on the finish line

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:23 am

Conor Dary wrote:Especially Rove's meltdown on Fox...hee, hee,...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/0 ... ll-in-play

There's also a link there to Sarah Palin's take (disappointed!) and BOY does she look different! Has she lost a ton of weight? Was she sick?
Marlow
 
Posts: 21126
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby gh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:28 am

DrJay wrote:F....
In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns


a tweet I saw <<With Colorado legalizing marijuana, Peyton Manning's decision to buy 21 Papa Johns franchises is more brilliant than I gave him credit for>>
gh
 
Posts: 46335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:49 am

I don't know if this has been mentioned but it was surprising how little the supposed GOP money advantage with the Citizen's United played out.

    Karl Rove Sets Billionaires’ Money On Fire: Karl Rove was the bogeyman that powered thousands of Democratic fundraising emails to supporters. And they had reason to be scared. Exploiting new rules under Citizens United and a general outpouring of disgust for Obama from the nation’s richest citizens, Rove raised hundreds of millions of dollars from mega-donors, much of it anonymously.

    Now he has to explain to the billionaires why their unprecedented spending earned them — nothing. For all the money spent, there’s still a Democratic president and, almost as unbelievably, a net gain in the Senate.

    Just that thought would have been enough for Democrats, but Rove happened to be on live TV as the results were called on FOX News for Obama. In an epic on-air tantrum, he refused to acknowledge Obama had won, sending anchor Megyn Kelly walking off-set to ask the network’s vote analysts to explain for him why tipping point Ohio was lost to Romney. Democrats will be replaying this clip for years to cheer them up in their darker moments.


http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/ ... hp?ref=fpa
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:58 am

gh wrote:
DrJay wrote:F....
In Colorado, today we voted on Amendment 64, which would legalize posession of small amounts of marijuana for fun purposes, not just medical reasons (we already did that latter one) and would direct the state to tax wholesale sales of the drug:

http://www.regulatemarijuana.org/s/regu ... l-act-2012

"yes" leads 54% to 46% early returns


a tweet I saw <<With Colorado legalizing marijuana, Peyton Manning's decision to buy 21 Papa Johns franchises is more brilliant than I gave him credit for>>


We have had medical marijuana legal for a number of years, with dispensaries having sprouted like weeds all over the place. I guess legalization of pot for everyone over 18 will put the dispensaries out of business, though that may take legalization at the federal level.
DrJay
 
Posts: 5485
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TN1965 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:00 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
shivfan wrote:I think a lot of non-Americans are like me right now...breathing a huge sigh of relief.

With the exception of the Israelis and the Pakistanis according to polls.


Only the right half of Israel. The left half was afraid Romney victory would give Netanyahu momentum in their election.
TN1965
 
Posts: 1186
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:09 am

jazzcyclist wrote:Now that the election is over, I really hope that Obama will quit treating Benjamin Netanyahu with kid gloves. If ever there was a world leader who needs to be put in his place, it's him. To quote Bill Clinton after his first encounter with Bibi, "Who the fuck does he think he is? Who's the fucking superpower here?"

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... mney_.html


^ x10
mump boy
 
Posts: 5637
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: saaaaaarf london

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:14 am

Netanyahu's undoing may be trying to do everything he could to get a Romney victory. Obama is not likely to forget. It reminds me of the UK's To Play the King the second in the House of Cards political trilogy, where the King Charles character tries everything to make sure the villain Francis Urquart loses the next election. FU wins and the King has to abdicate.
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:15 am

aaronk wrote:
3. Is she an "idiot"? She's been an avid reader since she was 5 years old.

.


But what newspapers did she read ? :lol:
mump boy
 
Posts: 5637
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: saaaaaarf london

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:29 am

JRM wrote:On the statistical side of things, Nate Silver's model proves to be virtually flawless. He was 50 for 50 on his state predictions, and the popular vote tally is looking good too.

He had me sweating Virginia until the end! As I said earlier this election was a foregone conclusion in the last month unless ALL the polls were wrong, and the media did it's best to keep that hush, hush!
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:36 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Cooter Brown wrote:Who knew that running an anti-immigrant, anti-woman, anti-middle & working class, anti-gay, anti-science, anti-minority, pro-war, pro-theocracy platform would result in colossal failure?

I guess that is one way to look at it. In contrast, I was wondering how they could do so well.

Zackly!!

kuha wrote:there are media outlets that enthusiastically feed these pathetic delusions.

Oh MAN, I can't wait to see how Jon Stewart mercilessly skewers Fox News (sic) tonight!!! :lol:


Especially Rove's meltdown on Fox...hee, hee,...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/0 ... ll-in-play

I loved Megyn's "long" walk to confront the unrepentant nerds!
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics ... esk/58777/
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:38 am

tandfman wrote:
26mi235 wrote:As an addendum, the popular vote is now 2,450,000 margin for Obama and may change by another million due to the location of the remaining votes to be counted. So much for a 'narrow' victory without a popular-vote mandate'.

On the other hand, had Obama won the presidency and actually lost the popular vote, there might have been a bi-partisan movement to get rid of the electoral college. IMHO, that would be a good thing.


I my humble opinion, this is both very naive (it will NEVER happen) and a really bad idea.

It completely ignores the central and critical compromise of the Constitution. Tell me how in the world you think that 23 of the 35 smallest states are going to chose to have less political power?

In addition it is a really bad idea; currently, if there is voting fraud the effects are completely limited to a single state rather than affecting the singular total. In addition, such a rule provides an incentive to the state to have as many votes as possible. Finally, bad weather or such in a state means that the whole state loses power, and given the November timing, that means the northern portion of the country.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:39 am

Yea, it was like something out of SNL.
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:50 am

aaronk wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
jeremyp wrote:
aaronk wrote:As the one lonely voice who proclaims that SARAH PALIN would have been declared President-Elect tonight...had she run...I am hesitant to state my reasons...

You should have quit while you were pondering...


Miss Half-Term! The funniest thing here. We all need a laugh... :lol: :lol: :lol:




1. It was NOT a "half-term". She was in office 2 years and 7 months and 22 days, which is just shy of TWO-THIRDS of her term, not half!
Thanks! The clarification makes all the difference. A quitter is a quitter. And one who quits their constituency for personal gain is the worst quitter.

3. Is she an "idiot"? She's been an avid reader since she was 5 years old. She sought to improve the quality of education in Alaska while Governor. She wrote (Yes, SHE wrote them!!) 2 books, 100's of Facebook Notes, and many Tweets, not to mention op-eds in major newspapers and magazines.
She is certainly not an idiot but she manages to come across as one and that's a problem.

4. She "lacks foreign policy experience"! Funny, they must have MISSED that about Obama in 2008!! While Governor, Sarah met with many foreign trade ministers, visited her Alaskan troops in Kuwait, Iraq, and at Camp Landstuhl, and in 2011, had a private dinner meeting in Israel with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Also, in a speech in Denver in 2011, she outlined a 5-point Doctrine for the Use of American Military Force. Also, the general consensus is that she OUT-debated Biden in their 2008 debate, even though Joe was Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and had 36 years in the Senate!!
Wow she's a foreign policy wonk! I saw that debate! She did not win, she simply did not lose!

5. She's a know-nothing on issues of consequence. Huh?? She spoke out, in speeches, FB Notes, op-eds, and interviews (Too many to list here!!) on Quantatative Easing, N. Korea, Iran, Egypt, Obamacare, Energy Independence, the US being "downgraded", the Constitution, the budget (or lack thereof!!), the trillion dollar debt and deficits, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, our border and immigration problem and on and on!! As noted, she laid out a Doctrine on our military, and another 5-point Doctrine on our economy (in her Indianola, Iowa speech on Sept 3, 2011).
As a rich opiner she can afford to get neocon's to write her stuff for her.

6. She said "You can see Russia from my house!". NOPE!! Tina Fey said that. Sarah said "You can see Russia from land here in Alaska!". And THAT is TRUE!! (Look up Big and Little Diomedes Islands!!)
Which was her comment about her foreign policy experience, Duh!

Continued in the next post.
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:09 am

26mi235 wrote:

In addition it is a really bad idea; currently, if there is voting fraud the effects are completely limited to a single state rather than affecting the singular total. In addition, such a rule provides an incentive to the state to have as many votes as possible.


Voter fraud is a non existent problem. The big problem at the moment is states trying to limit voters they don't like.

Personally I think we should go to a popular vote. But the main priority at the moment should be having consistent voting procedures and rules across the country, which we do not have at the moment.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/25/penn_re ... omney_win/
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby preston » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:23 am

It seems that democrats will definitely have to be more moderate (sorry, jazz and Marlow). I just looked at the senate contests for 2012 and though both parties have a bit to defend the Democrats are more vulnerable - and if they want to control the house they won't be able to overreach, which is probably why you won't see serious filibuster reform.

Republicans are defending 13 seats and Democrats will defend 20. Of the 20 Democrats up for reelection in 2014, 7 are in "red states" (AK, AR, LA, MT, NC, SD, WV) and 2 are in the very "purple" but trending Blue VA and CO. Senator-elect Heidkamp joins Bachus, but...he may have a tough reelection. Also, If Kerry gets the SoS, then there has to be a special election for that seat and again in 2014 (can you hear Scott Brown stirring). There will be no President Obama coat-tails for these candidates and Dems tend to do awful in mid-term elections. Incumbents will be voting to protect their backs unless they can get every republican incumbent and candidate to state their honest views on rape.

President Obama's legacy for big things will grow, but without senate control he will have serious difficulty getting his SCOTUS nominations through a Vitter or Sessions filibuster. All that said, changing demographics and the right candidate for Dems in 2016 (Clinton? Castro?) could lead to pressure on republican candidates in red states.
preston
 
Posts: 1075
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:09 pm

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:25 am

j-a-m wrote:Four years ago they said that about McCain, four years before that they said it about Kerry, and it keeps not working out too well. Now at least three consecutive elections were lost by the candidate who was more of a flip-flopper than his opponent. Maybe voters would appreciate some consistency in a candidate's opinions.

In terms of strategy, Obama's biggest weakness was the unpopularity of his healthcare law. And Romney was the one candidate who couldn't focus his campaign on that issue, because he did essentially the same back when he was Governor.


For one thing, Romney had a track record of saying whatever was expedient, which made his positions questionable (whether that was really his position). To think that Romney moving toward the middle did not help him is to fundamentally misunderstand the whole process this year. The only point in the campaign where he narrowed the gap was in the first debate where he caught Obama off guard by saying he was 'not-Romney', that is, taking decidedly different positions on major issues. After a while that wore off and the odds when back up to 75% Obama from mid50s to 60%.

And, Romney was by far the most moderate of the major Republican candidates (Huntsman was probably the best but had no chance as the better-known and better-financed Romney had that 'space'.

As for much of the country hating the health care law, I think that is a lot of rhetoric and not particularly close to the truth. In fact, much of the opposition is from the same people who wanted the conservative Republicans and did not sway a lot of votes one net because I think that there were independents that broke both ways on that, especially those that looked at it themselves rather than listening to the Fox News, WSJ Editorial page version.

The Independents give you the notion that the economy etc did hurt Obama, but not terribly.

If you look closely, I think that you will find that the Obama team did their homework on the ground game and closed up all of the Republican advantage on that score, despite rules that made it a bit harder in a number of states.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:30 am

Aaronk, I applaud you for coming into the lion’s den. I think people like you need to be heard from lest folks on this board forget that there are many Americans who share your views. I won’t critique your post because I think you and I view reality and absorb news so differently, that nothing constructive would come from me debating you. However, I must point out to you that everyone on this board likely observed Palin’s 2008 performance with their own ears and eyes, including the Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson interviews, and formed their opinions accordingly, and therefore, reading her books and tweets has a zero percent chance of changing those opinions. I would also surmise that you’re spinning your wheels trying to convince folks that Game Change was just a fairytale concocted by former McCain staffers out of spite. I hope you have a good day but I also want to leave you with this quote from Euripides:

Man’s most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10860
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby kevinsdad » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:33 am

Conor Dary wrote:
But the main priority at the moment should be having consistent voting procedures and rules across the country, which we do not have at the moment.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/25/penn_re ... omney_win/
[/quote]

My favorite tweet from last night: "No matter what happens, I'm just proud to live in a country where our voting process resembles a Moroccan marketplace."

Seriously, the hours' long wait and other difficulties people encountered in trying to vote last night, many due to incompetence and others the result of deliberate attempts to suppress the votes of certain groups of voters, are a national disgrace.
kevinsdad
 
Posts: 193
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:35 am

Conor Dary wrote:Voter fraud is a non existent problem. The big problem at the moment is states trying to limit voters they don't like.

Personally I think we should go to a popular vote. But the main priority at the moment should be having consistent voting procedures and rules across the country, which we do not have at the moment.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/25/penn_re ... omney_win/

I think 26mi made a good point about the lilelihood of small states voting for a system that would give them less power.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10860
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TN1965 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:43 am

26mi235 wrote: Palin would have been (one of) the Democrat's dream opponents.


To paraphrase Robert Reich, 1% chance of Palin victory is worse than 50% chance of Romney victory.

So I am glad Palin has no chance for the GOP nomination.
TN1965
 
Posts: 1186
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TN1965 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:49 am

kuha wrote: Think about it: We have a 7.9 unemployment rate; something like 55% of the population says the country "is on the wrong track"; and depending on how you measure it, more than 50% of the public claims to "hate" the ACA. The incumbent is a black man with a weird name who perhaps 20% of the population "thinks" is a radical Muslim, business-busting, nation-hating, illegitimate alien. And there are media outlets that enthusiastically feed these pathetic delusions. AND YET, the Repub nominee still fails! If there was ever a "gimme" election, one would have THOUGHT it was this one.


On the other hand, the Democratic campaign managers seem to understand the electoral math (actually "arithmetic") much better than the GOP counterpart. They know where to focus their resources based on the polling data. The Republicans look like they are the "faith-based" party even on election campaigns.
TN1965
 
Posts: 1186
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:52 am

As we suspected all along Romney is secretly a Kenyan!http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20240532
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:05 pm

preston wrote:It seems that democrats will definitely have to be more moderate (sorry, jazz and Marlow).

Hey, I get it, and Obama, in his victory speech, acknowledged that the only way out of the mess we're in is BIpartisan moderacy. Despite Mitt's disparagement of the 47% of the electorate, we get that almost 48% of the vote was for NOT-Obama! (57 MILLION people!) If we don't 'reenfranchise' as many as we can, we're sunk.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21126
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:14 pm

Marlow wrote:Hey, I get it, and Obama, in his victory speech, acknowledged that the only way out of the mess we're in is BIpartisan moderacy. Despite Mitt's disparagement of the 47% of the electorate, we get that almost 48% of the vote was for NOT-Obama! (57 MILLION people!) If we don't 'reenfranchise' as many as we can, we're sunk.


Bi-partisan with whom exactly? This guy?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-A09a_gHJc

Sorry but bi-partisanship with the crazies in the GOP is a loser for Obama which he learned last year.

http://www.tnr.com/book/review/bob-wood ... f-politics
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mcgato » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:22 pm

JRM wrote:On the statistical side of things, Nate Silver's model proves to be virtually flawless. He was 50 for 50 on his state predictions, and the popular vote tally is looking good too.
That's the main reason that I got a good night's sleep last night. I went to bed at about 10 ET, after seeing that Silver's model had predicted every state correctly up to that point. I figured that I would wake up to pretty much what his predictions said.

Here is a nice xkcd strip about it. He had mentioned Silver in Monday's mouse-over.
http://xkcd.com/1131/
mcgato
 
Posts: 1607
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Hoboken

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:24 pm

From Adam Gopnick in New Yorker on the eve of the election.

We have arrived, this morning, at the true moneyball moment in American electoral politics, where the fight is not just between candidates but also between two ways of predicting the future, analytic and impressionistic. Nate Silver has Obama’s chances of reëlection around a ninety-per-cent certainty; Sam Wang, of the “Princeton Consortium”—though exactly who consorts with him in Princeton is unclear, the idea of consorting, electorally, is too winning not to relish—has Romney’s odds even longer than that. Note that they are not saying that the election will be over in a hour or anything like that; on the contrary, they predict that what is, historically, a close race, will remain one, with at most a couple of percentage points dividing the two men. What they are saying is that, short of a statistical miracle, it can only end one way. (My colleague John Cassidy has more on why.) What the pro-pundit class is saying, on the other hand, is that no one really knows, it will be a long night, it could go either way, and the rest of the usual excited—and, if you don’t care too much about the future of the country, exciting—chatter.


Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/n ... z2BZQ7DjpG
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:28 pm

And finally Heitkamp In North Dakota won, so the Democrats will have 55 seats, assuming King caucuses with the Dems which is likely. Pretty amazing. A month ago, the idea of the Dems picking up 2 seats was a huge fantasy.
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:30 pm

Conor Dary wrote:Bi-partisan with whom exactly? This guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-A09a_gHJc
Sorry but bi-partisanship with the crazies in the GOP is a loser for Obama which he learned last year.

So the MAJORITY of Reps are loony toons? I think not. Both sides have PLENTY of crazies. Google Congresswoman Corrine Brown (D) of Jacksonville, FL if ya wanna see Bull Moose Crazy! She has SIX different paragraphs of 'Controversies' in her Wiki page.
Last edited by Marlow on Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21126
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:31 pm

jeremyp wrote:From Adam Gopnick in New Yorker on the eve of the election.

We have arrived, this morning, at the true moneyball moment in American electoral politics, where the fight is not just between candidates but also between two ways of predicting the future, analytic and impressionistic. Nate Silver has Obama’s chances of reëlection around a ninety-per-cent certainty; Sam Wang, of the “Princeton Consortium”—though exactly who consorts with him in Princeton is unclear, the idea of consorting, electorally, is too winning not to relish—has Romney’s odds even longer than that. Note that they are not saying that the election will be over in a hour or anything like that; on the contrary, they predict that what is, historically, a close race, will remain one, with at most a couple of percentage points dividing the two men. What they are saying is that, short of a statistical miracle, it can only end one way. (My colleague John Cassidy has more on why.) What the pro-pundit class is saying, on the other hand, is that no one really knows, it will be a long night, it could go either way, and the rest of the usual excited—and, if you don’t care too much about the future of the country, exciting—chatter.


Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/n ... z2BZQ7DjpG


Yes, the professional pundit class was completely clueless on this. All those years of getting contacts and rolodexes and all for naught....HO, ho, ho.
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:33 pm

Did you see Gingrich's 'apology' for declaring Mitt unbeatable? It was classic.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21126
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:35 pm

Marlow wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:Bi-partisan with whom exactly? This guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-A09a_gHJc
Sorry but bi-partisanship with the crazies in the GOP is a loser for Obama which he learned last year.

So the MAJORITY of Reps are loony toons? I think not. Both sides have PLENTY of crazies. Google Congresswoman Corrine Brown (D) of Jacksonville, FL if ya wanna see Bull Moose Crazy!


Yes, the Democrats have a few nutcases. But they aren't the party leaders. But look at the GOP primary. Romney won because the rest were complete nutters. Lunacy is the main blood of the GOP these days.
Conor Dary
 
Posts: 6297
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: कनोर दारी in Ronald MacDonald's Home Town, and once a Duck always a Duck.

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:40 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:Bi-partisan with whom exactly? This guy?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-A09a_gHJc
Sorry but bi-partisanship with the crazies in the GOP is a loser for Obama which he learned last year.

So the MAJORITY of Reps are loony toons? I think not. Both sides have PLENTY of crazies. Google Congresswoman Corrine Brown (D) of Jacksonville, FL if ya wanna see Bull Moose Crazy!


Yes, the Democrats have a few nutcases. But they aren't the party leaders. But look at the GOP primary. Romney won because the rest were complete nutters. Lunacy is the main blood of the GOP these days.

If I remember correctly not one believed in: Global warming; Evolution; 1$ of taxes for $10 of cuts. Huntsman was the sanest but he was seen as crying wolf....to a wolf pack.
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:43 pm

Marlow wrote:Did you see Gingrich's 'apology' for declaring Mitt unbeatable? It was classic.

Wasn't he famous for predicting himself as the undisputed Republican nominee after a strong debate? These ego maniacs (like Trump) always remind of my days in mental health and dealing with narcisstic personality disorders: namely the administrators.
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:53 pm

What really strikes me about this election is that this one was should have been an easy win for the GOP. The economy almost always sways these elections, and in addition they had increased spending, health care reform, all red meat to many moderates, and an administration that could not figure out how to sell itself, while the GOP could. Then came the primaries and we couldn't tell dumb from dumber. Even Palin was smart enough to know she shouldn't run. Obama was like somebody on "Walking Dead" who'd been bit by many walkers but never turned.
jeremyp
 
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Florida

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby aaronk » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:57 pm

Re: Your reactions to my "promotion" of Sarah Palin.....

Back in my "serious" days as a runner (the 70's and early 80's), I got the distinct impression that,based on those many people I ran in training with, and competed against, young and old, men and women, that MOST of them were not only liberal, but RADICALLY so!!

Y'know, I was RIGHT!!! :shock:
aaronk
 
Posts: 3362
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby kuha » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:02 pm

aaronk wrote:many people I ran in training with, and competed against, young and old, men and women, that MOST of them were not only liberal, but RADICALLY so!!


The relativity principle: if most/many people seem to be different than you in some significant way, it may well be YOU that's off on the edge of that particular spectrum, not them.
kuha
 
Posts: 9034
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: 3rd row, on the finish line

PreviousNext

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests