WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now closed)


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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:01 pm

MSNBC is making fun of of Karl Rove and the other folks on FOX refusing to accept defeat. Also, Donald Trump is reportedly calling for a revolution.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Dutra5 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:03 pm

guru wrote:
kuha wrote:
No, plain and simple. If you prefer the phrase "major repudiation" or "decisive repudiation" then you are welcome to them.



Sorry, but any use of repudiation would include the Republicans losing the House, and Obama winning popular vote. One won't happen, and the other, we shall see.

2008 was a repudiation, just like 2010 was for Democrats. But this year is nothing but maintaining status quo.


Obama will win the popular vote.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:04 pm

guru wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Romney is still not ready to concede despite the fact that every major news organization has already called the election for Obama.



Obama only leads by 1000 votes in Ohio, with 77% in, and provisionals outstanding. I dunno, but seems like an early call(as Florida was in 2000)


The technology id very different today than it was 12 years ago and the early call then was a partisan tactic from Karl Rove, Jeb Bush and Fox news

this time they have VERY specific information from individual districts and everyone is calling it
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jhc68 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:07 pm

The future is on TV right now... the Republican crowd at their hdqtrs is White on White, while the Democratic mob represents every stripe of ethincity. It's a striking difference and unless the Republicans can change their mix then the GOP is dead in the water in regard to future prospects.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:07 pm

mump boy wrote:
guru wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Romney is still not ready to concede despite the fact that every major news organization has already called the election for Obama.



Obama only leads by 1000 votes in Ohio, with 77% in, and provisionals outstanding. I dunno, but seems like an early call(as Florida was in 2000)


The technology id very different today than it was 12 years ago and the early call then was a partisan tactic from Karl Rove, Jeb Bush and Fox news

this time they have VERY specific information from individual districts and everyone is calling it



Romney now up by over 20,000. Predictable, since rural votes are the last to come in. I know - I live here.

Doesnt matter, since it looks like Obama has it with or without Ohio. But it's trending that he won't win here.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby DrJay » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:08 pm

So far a fairly civil thread here. Good job!
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:11 pm

By the way, the early call in 2000 was Gore winning Florida, not Bush.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:14 pm

Colorado has been called for Obama and Ohio doesn't even matter any more.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Dutra5 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:15 pm

guru wrote:
Romney now up by over 20,000. Predictable, since rural votes are the last to come in. I know - I live here.

Doesnt matter, since it looks like Obama has it with or without Ohio. But it's trending that he won't win here.


You sure you looked at that map correctly. All sources report Obama up by just over 20k in Ohio.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:20 pm

guru wrote:By the way, the early call in 2000 was Gore winning Florida, not Bush.


As i said things are MUCH more sophisticated now, early predictions for Gore were from exit polls but when Jeb Bush's voter intimidation had been taken into account those predictions were rescinded. Then while the rest of the world new it was too close to call and there were MASSIVE problems with hanging chads etc Fox called it for Bush on purpose

this is not the same at all
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:21 pm

guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
guru wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Romney is still not ready to concede despite the fact that every major news organization has already called the election for Obama.



Obama only leads by 1000 votes in Ohio, with 77% in, and provisionals outstanding. I dunno, but seems like an early call(as Florida was in 2000)


The technology id very different today than it was 12 years ago and the early call then was a partisan tactic from Karl Rove, Jeb Bush and Fox news

this time they have VERY specific information from individual districts and everyone is calling it



Romney now up by over 20,000. Predictable, since rural votes are the last to come in. I know - I live here.

Doesnt matter, since it looks like Obama has it with or without Ohio. But it's trending that he won't win here.


11:57 P.M. Outstanding Precincts in Ohio Appear to Favor Obama
The votes counted so far in Ohio show an extraordinarily close race, with President Obama only about 1,000 ballots ahead of Mitt Romney as of 11:50 p.m.

But the vast bulk of precincts that have yet to report their results in Ohio are in counties that have gone for Mr. Obama.

Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, has had only half of its precincts report and could yield another 100,000 votes or so for Mr. Obama.

Toledo’s Lucas County, which has strongly favored Mr. Obama so far, has had only 12 percent of its precincts report.

There are also votes outstanding in the Cleveland suburbs, and in Dayton, also areas that have gone for Mr. Obama so far. Conversely, the vast majority of areas where Mr. Romney leads have reported 100 percent of their ballots.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -election/
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:22 pm

Dutra5 wrote:
guru wrote:
Romney now up by over 20,000. Predictable, since rural votes are the last to come in. I know - I live here.

Doesnt matter, since it looks like Obama has it with or without Ohio. But it's trending that he won't win here.


You sure you looked at that map correctly. All sources report Obama up by just over 20k in Ohio.



Starting to fluctuate now. Latest at 81% shows Obama back up by 12,000. 2,389,9991 - 2,377,364. CBS starting to backtrack.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:27 pm

Nobody can afford to ignore the Latino vote anymore, they know it and will become increasingly confident and vocal about it

There will have to be some consensus on immigration (amongst other things obvs) for any party to be competitive in the future
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:28 pm

guru wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:
guru wrote:
Romney now up by over 20,000. Predictable, since rural votes are the last to come in. I know - I live here.

Doesnt matter, since it looks like Obama has it with or without Ohio. But it's trending that he won't win here.


You sure you looked at that map correctly. All sources report Obama up by just over 20k in Ohio.



Starting to fluctuate now. Latest at 81% shows Obama back up by 12,000. 2,389,9991 - 2,377,364. CBS starting to backtrack.


It's only going to get better from Obama the majority of votes to be counted are from Dem strongholds
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:35 pm

and as predicted Obama now ahead in popular vote which is only going to grow as west coast count comes in
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:36 pm

mump boy wrote:
It's only going to get better from Obama the majority of votes to be counted are from Dem strongholds



Here's the breakdown. Of nine counties outstanding, five are relatively urban, four are rural.

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/polit ... Jnr-sVpeSq

As I said, it doesnt matter at this point. But would be ahuge poke in the eye of the exit poll predictions if Romney can win Ohio after everyone called it for Obama.

Also, before any of my friends on the left ridicule Romney, remember Kerry didnt concede in '04 until Wednesday
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:37 pm

mump boy wrote:Nobody can afford to ignore the Latino vote anymore, they know it and will become increasingly confident and vocal about it

There will have to be some consensus on immigration (amongst other things obvs) for any party to be competitive in the future

NBC is reporting that Hispanics in Nevada and Colorado voted 90% Obama. Obama earned a lot of good will amongst them when he appointed Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. If the Democrats nominate San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (this year's DNC keynote speaker) in 2016, they might turn Texas blue and lock up the Hispanic vote for a generation.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TrakFan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:39 pm

The following things were said during the Republican primary:

Rick Santorum: “I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money.
Herman Cain: “We'll have a real fence, 20 ft. high with barbed wire [on the Mexico/US border], electrified, with a sign on the other side that says, 'It can kill you.”

The Republican "demographic" problem will continue with such attitudes.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:42 pm

guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
It's only going to get better from Obama the majority of votes to be counted are from Dem strongholds



Here's the breakdown. Of nine counties outstanding, five are relatively urban, four are rural.

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/polit ... Jnr-sVpeSq

As I said, it doesnt matter at this point. But would be ahuge poke in the eye of the exit poll predictions if Romney can win Ohio after everyone called it for Obama.

Also, before any of my friends on the left ridicule Romney, remember Kerry didnt concede in '04 until Wednesday


It doesn't matter how many counties, it matters about the population and what % has been counted. Urban precincts are bigger and have counted a smaller % of votes so far
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:43 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
mump boy wrote:Nobody can afford to ignore the Latino vote anymore, they know it and will become increasingly confident and vocal about it

There will have to be some consensus on immigration (amongst other things obvs) for any party to be competitive in the future

NBC is reporting that Hispanics in Nevada and Colorado voted 90% Obama. Obama earned a lot of good will amongst them when he appointed Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. If the Democrats nominate San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (this year's DNC keynote speaker) in 2016, they might turn Texas blue and lock up the Hispanic vote for a generation.


I don't think Dems can follow an african american with a latin nominee. They can follow with a woman and a latin Veep though :D
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jeremyp » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:48 pm

If you followed the statisticians, and TF fans should, they had Obama leading the electoral vote for months, narrowly, but never behind. Nate Silver at NY Times had it right. The problem is that much of the media ignored the electoral vote issue and focused on the popular vote, probably to keep people thinking it was "too close to call", I wrote a letter to my local newspaper about it and they printed it but left out my comment that Obama was leading. Of course Fox had to ignore it and trashed statistician's like Silver who were using "facts" not "myths."
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:48 pm

Virginia just declared for Obama. According to NBC, the counties that haven't yet reported in Ohio are counties in which Obama won 2/3rds of the vote in 2008.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:50 pm

When you cut through the rhetoric and hyperbole, nothing has changed. Congress is split, Obama is president. Unfortunately for the country, expect four more years of same old, same old.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:00 pm

guru wrote:When you cut through the rhetoric and hyperbole, nothing has changed. Congress is split, Obama is president. Unfortunately for the country, expect four more years of same old, same old.


Well Reps may have to learn to compromise but many are too scared of losing a primary to a Tea Party loon
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TrakFan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:01 pm

guru wrote:When you cut through the rhetoric and hyperbole, nothing has changed. Congress is split, Obama is president. Unfortunately for the country, expect four more years of same old, same old.


I agree -- especially based on the attitude of some politicians. I'm curious what the Senate Minority Leader's "number one priority" will be now? He was on a mission to make Obama a "one term President."
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:03 pm

mump boy wrote:
Well Reps may have to learn to compromise...



Not a chance, and with Obama in essence a lame duck expect him to be more hard-headed as well. Bad news for the US of A.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:06 pm

guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
Well Reps may have to learn to compromise...



Not a chance, and with Obama in essence a lame duck expect him to be more hard-headed as well. Bad news for the US of A.

Now is the time for Obama to channel his inner LBJ.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby aaronk » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:13 pm

As the one lonely voice who proclaims that SARAH PALIN would have been declared President-Elect tonight...had she run...I am hesitant to state my reasons...because I've read all the NEGATIVE remarks about her on this thread.

But I'll do so anyway!!
Following are SOME of the reasons I so strongly support Sarah.

1. On Nov 4, 2008, she had 8 years and 10 months of Executive Experience. McCain had NONE. Biden had NONE. Obama had NONE. Yet the LSM declared SARAH the least experienced.

2. Her 2 books (Going Rogue and America By Heart) sold over 4,000,000 copies in hardback, breaking all kinds of sales records with "Rogue".

3. She drew larger crowds at HER rallies in 2008 than McCain did at his!

4. Her Facebook total is nearly 3,500,000, more than Biden, McCain, and Romney combined!

5. Her FB Notes and Tweets always made headlines, and were FILLED with policy statements and ideas.

6. She was right on just about EVERY subject she spoke out on since 2008...pro-life, energy independence, Israel, North Korea, all matters on the economy, the Constitution, States Rights, the "border problem", NOT apologizing to our enemies, civilian trials for terrorists, and on and on.

7. EVERY appearance she made since 2008 sold out the house...even in LIBERAL bastions like Eugene!!

8. Her memoir told the TRUTH about the 2008 campaign; "Game Change" (book, but especially the movie!) did NOT!!

9. Most people who MEET her in person, whether conservative, moderate, or liberal, say she's a good and nice person....and SMART!!

10. Every idiotic statement made about her being an "idiot" or "uninformed" has been PROVEN false!

11. Totally vetted (beyond anyone ELSE being vetted in a "normal" manner), those 25,000 e-mails she released PROVED her time as Governor were ethically PURE!!

12. On a Newsweek cover in July 2011, she declared "I CAN WIN!"...meaning the 2012 race for President!!

The greatest mistake conservatives and Republicans made this year was nominating Mitt Romney....and NOT Sarah Palin...to be their nominee!!

Not to mention how much of an inspiration she would be to girls and women EVERYWHERE...as America's first female President!!
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:17 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
Well Reps may have to learn to compromise...



Not a chance, and with Obama in essence a lame duck expect him to be more hard-headed as well. Bad news for the US of A.

Now is the time for Obama to channel his inner LBJ.


Haha can you imagine Obama giving John Boehner the Richard Russell treatment?


http://static.getkempt.com/wp-content/u ... opout1.jpg


This is my major problem with Obama. I voted for him in 2008, but he was major disappointment. folding at every opportunity. The health care compromise infuriated me, and sent the message to republicans they could walk all over him - which they have.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:19 pm

aaronk wrote:Not to mention how much of an embarrassment she would be to girls and women EVERYWHERE...as America's first female President!!


That's better.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby mump boy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:21 pm

guru wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
Well Reps may have to learn to compromise...



Not a chance, and with Obama in essence a lame duck expect him to be more hard-headed as well. Bad news for the US of A.

Now is the time for Obama to channel his inner LBJ.


Haha can you imagine Obama giving John Boehner the Richard Russell treatment?


http://static.getkempt.com/wp-content/u ... opout1.jpg


This is my major problem with Obama. I voted for him in 2008, but he was major disappointment. folding at every opportunity. The health care compromise infuriated me, and sent the message to republicans they could walk all over him - which they have.


No, he tried to compromise with people who have no interest in any such thing

Are you calling for even more partisanship ?
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TrakFan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:22 pm

aaronk wrote:The greatest mistake conservatives and Republicans made this year was nominating Mitt Romney....and NOT Sarah Palin...to be their nominee!!


The greatest mistake made by the Republicans was not Nominating John Huntsman. I (as a die hard Dem.) liked him as a candidate, and was worried that he'd be a very formidable candidate. He would have picked of MANY Obama supporters.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TrakFan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:28 pm

guru wrote:This is my major problem with Obama. I voted for him in 2008, but he was major disappointment. folding at every opportunity. The health care compromise infuriated me, and sent the message to republicans they could walk all over him - which they have.


In this post you say you're disappointed because Obama folded (compromised). In another post you say it's going be "bad news for the USA" because Obama will be "hard headed" (uncompromising?) You're all over the place -- kinda' like Romney was during the campaign.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:28 pm

mump boy wrote:No, he tried to compromise with people who have no interest in any such thing



At some point you need to stand for what you believe in - you're the President of the United States for crying out loud. How might that civil rights bill showdown have gone if LBJ had the intestinal fortitude of Obama?

Of course, no everyone can be LBJ,

or Lincoln for that matter(1:41) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRe3REa39-0
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:29 pm

TrakFan wrote:
aaronk wrote:The greatest mistake conservatives and Republicans made this year was nominating Mitt Romney....and NOT Sarah Palin...to be their nominee!!


The greatest mistake made by the Republicans was not Nominating John Huntsman. I (as a die hard Dem.) liked him as a candidate, and was worried that he'd be a very formidable candidate. He would have picked of MANY Obama supporters.


This is exactly what the Republicans refuse to understand. America is not made up of nutcase Tea Party members but the party has been overtaken by them.

If they would nominate a centre right candidate they'd win but the base is mental so it won't happen. Thank god :mrgreen:
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby guru » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:30 pm

TrakFan wrote:
guru wrote:This is my major problem with Obama. I voted for him in 2008, but he was major disappointment. folding at every opportunity. The health care compromise infuriated me, and sent the message to republicans they could walk all over him - which they have.


In this post you say you're disappointed because Obama folded (compromised). In another post you say it's going be "bad news for the USA" because Obama will be "hard headed" (uncompromising?) You're all over the place -- kinda' like Romney was during the campaign.



Not really. If he had stood his ground on health care, the Republicans would have been sent a message, and maybe the 2010 bloodbath doesnt happen. Now, they just laugh.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:42 pm

guru wrote:This is my major problem with Obama. I voted for him in 2008, but he was major disappointment. folding at every opportunity. The health care compromise infuriated me, and sent the message to republicans they could walk all over him - which they have.

I agree with this 100%. Obama seems to put too much faith in the power of personal persuasion and while at the same time avoiding personal confrontation at all cost. What he has to understand is that you can't always talk folks into doing what you want them to do, sometimes you have to force them to do it.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby Flumpy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:42 pm

guru wrote:Now, they just laugh.


I don't think they're laughing tonight.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby jazzcyclist » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:45 pm

mump boy wrote:No, he tried to compromise with people who have no interest in any such thing

Are you calling for even more partisanship ?

The Republicans can't get any more partisan. It's time to break some fuckin' arms using every tactic and tool at his disposal.
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Re: WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON THE ELECTION? (now open)

Postby TrakFan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:46 pm

guru wrote:Not really. If he had stood his ground on health care, the Republicans would have been sent a message, and maybe the 2010 bloodbath doesnt happen. Now, they just laugh.


It takes two to tango. Without using Google, do you recall why he "gave in" to extending the Bush tax cuts in 2010? From a deficit standpoint we couldn't afford it, but those who were SERIOUSLY in need would have suffered if he didn't compromise.
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