2012 College Football

[j-a-m]

There's still a small chance that Kent State makes the top 16 and takes that spot away from OU.

or Northern Illinois or Boise, for that matter. All three are not gonna be that far behind #16 tonight; and Northern Illinois and Kent State play next week, so one of them gets a quality win.

[Marlow]

Do you understand that . . .
Did you realize that . . .
Did realize that . . .

If Fla leap-frogs the SEC Champion, then, yes, I will freely admit I have no freakin' idea how this all works.

But . . . if they don't, then you are gonna hafta shut up that you do. This is called the Brutex Protocol, named after a multi-monikered erstwhile poster here, who also purported himself to be THE authority.

[Dutra5]

Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.

I don't know why you would say this. The computers don't know what name is on the jerseys, and like Georgia, Alabama has had only one signature win all season.

Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

[Blues]

I don't see how could Florida leap over the winner of Alabama-Georgia regardless of the merits.

If Florida finshes #3 in the human polls, which they should, their high computer ranking might be enough to get them past the winner of the SEC Championship game, who will be #2 in the human polls.

By the way, I think voters will be a lot less likely to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt in the future, after Stanford exposed what would happen to their basketball-on-grass offense if it had to face one of the best SEC schools or Notre Dame.

I think it'll be pretty tough for Florida to get enough points in the Harris and USA Today Polls to pass Georgia despite a higher percentage than the Bulldogs in the computer scoring, if Georgia can beat Alabama for the SEC title and when voters consider that Georgia beat Florida head to head at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Stranger things have happened though.. And other than Florida's fourth quarter domination of a good Florida State team that turned the ball over 5 times in the game, their play really doesn't seem that impressive to me, especially over the past 4 or 5 games...

[jazzcyclist]

Do you understand that . . .
Did you realize that . . .
Did realize that . . .

If Fla leap-frogs the SEC Champion, then, yes, I will freely admit I have no freakin' idea how this all works.

But . . . if they don't, then you are gonna hafta shut up that you do. This is called the Brutex Protocol, named after a multi-monikered erstwhile poster here, who also purported himself to be THE authority.

Well, you doing what many people do when they can't handle the message: attack the messanger. For the record, I never predicted that Florida would jump the SEC Champiom in the final BCS rankings, and I know they won't jump them in the human polls, but it is possible that they their superior computer ranking will be enough to overcome a #3 ranking in the human polls. If you followed these things, you would know that on three other occasions, one of the top two teams in the human polls was left out of the championship game. I see that j-a-m gets what I'm talking about, and I'm sure that my fellow math major, 26mi understand too, but I guess it's asking too much for you to grasp what I'm saying.

[jazzcyclist]

Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math.

[jazzcyclist]

I think it'll be pretty tough for Florida to get enough points in the Harris and USA Today Polls to pass Georgia despite a higher percentage than the Bulldogs in the computer scoring, if Georgia can beat Alabama for the SEC title and when voters consider that Georgia beat Florida head to head at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Stranger things have happened though.. And other than Florida's fourth quarter domination of a good Florida State team that turned the ball over 5 times in the game, their play really doesn't seem that impressive to me, especially over the past 4 or 5 games...

The scenario that I'm talking about doesn't hinge on voters putting Florida over Georgia. It hinges on Florida being #2 in all the computer polls and Georgia being #4 or #5 in the computer polls. Florida beat Texas A&M, they beat LSU, they dismantled South Carolina and they beat Florida State. Name another team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.

[Marlow]

The scenario that I'm talking about doesn't hinge on voters putting Florida over Georgia. It hinges on Florida being #2 in all the computer polls and Georgia being #4 or #5 in the computer polls. Florida beat Texas A&M, they beat LSU, they dismantled South Carolina and they beat Florida State. Name another team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.

We 'get' it. If Fla jumps Bama and Geo, you da man! If they don't, you ain't.

With tonight's BCS Standings showing this:

1 Notre Dame
2 Alabama
3 Georgia
4 Florida

explain the math to me that sends the SEC champion below Florida . . .

[Dutra5]

Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math.

I understand math just fine.

Come up with a plausible situation in which Florida passes Alabama after an Alabama win in the SEC championship game.

At this point Florida is second in all the computer polls save one. Alabama with a win, if anything, would move up higher in the computer polls because they are playing Georgia which is rated higher than Alabama in a couple of them. Alabama with a win will not lose ground in the people polls. Florida could pick up some ground there but certainly nowhere near enough to pass Alabama.

With Georgia, it is also a stretch as they will be ranked a clear #2 in the people polls and will pick up ground in the computers...certainly more than an idle Florida would.

[Blues]

Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math.

I understand math and I'm aware that the BCS standings are based on the average of 1) the overall computer ranking percentage, 2)the Harris Poll percentage where Florida is currently ranked 5th behind #4 Oregon, and 3) the USA Today poll percentage where Florida is currently ranked 5th also behind #4 Oregon. I just don't see Florida being able to jump into the number two spot in the BCS without losses by both Alabama and Georgia, which is impossible.

Whichever team wins the SEC title game will get more points in the human polls, which account for 66.6% of the BCS standings weight. If Alabama wins, they'll still probably get more points in the human polls from voters who didn't vote them 1 or 2 previously, and they may increase their 2 number 1 votes in the USA Today poll and 5 number 1 votes in the Harris poll that they currently have... If Georgia beats Alabama and moves up to number 2, Georgia will probably improve by about 0.05% in each human poll, giving them about a .1% margin over Florida in each human poll, even if Florida moves up to #4 in both human polls based on Alabama moving down after a loss to Georgia. I doubt whether the computer poll can give Florida the additional increase over Georgia (in addition to the advantage they already have) that they'll need to overcome their deficit in both human polls...

Here are the current BCS rankings and percentages as of today:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

So from the current BCS rankings Florida currently has a score of .960 in the computer poll to .860 for Georgia. That accounts for a third of the BCS ranking score. Maximum is 1.000, so it seems that Florida can only increase their lead by 0.04 max if they increase at all after the SEC title game, as long as Georgia's computer score doesn't somehow go down if Georgia wins. Georgia, currently in 3rd place in both human polls, has a .0516% advantage over Florida in the USA Today Poll, and a .057% lead over Florida in the Harris Poll. If Georgia beats Alabama, they'll increase their score in both human polls to a greater degree than Florida will if Florida moves up to #4 based on Alabama dropping, so I don't see the math that would allow Florida to pass Georgia if Georgia can beat the Tide, nor do I see any plausible math that allows Florida to pass Alabama if Alabama wins, since the human polls carry two-thirds of the BCS rankings weight.. Admittedly I'm not a mathematician and I'm sure there are some scenarios I've missed, and I welcome any corrections to my logic from the numbers guys in here.

[Blues]

I think it'll be pretty tough for Florida to get enough points in the Harris and USA Today Polls to pass Georgia despite a higher percentage than the Bulldogs in the computer scoring, if Georgia can beat Alabama for the SEC title and when voters consider that Georgia beat Florida head to head at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Stranger things have happened though.. And other than Florida's fourth quarter domination of a good Florida State team that turned the ball over 5 times in the game, their play really doesn't seem that impressive to me, especially over the past 4 or 5 games...

The scenario that I'm talking about doesn't hinge on voters putting Florida over Georgia. It hinges on Florida being #2 in all the computer polls and Georgia being #4 or #5 in the computer polls. Florida beat Texas A&M, they beat LSU, they dismantled South Carolina and they beat Florida State. Name another team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.

Those wins are nice, and in the previous 4 games prior to Florida State they also lost to Georgia in Jacksonville, had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat a 5-7 Missouri team 14-7, needed a touchdown with 1:42 left in the game and another touchdown on a punt return with 2 seconds left in the game to beat Louisiana-Lafayette 27-20, and beat Jacksonville State 23-0 with their offense scoring a grand total of 1 touchdown along with 3 field goals... The Texas A&M game was also the Aggies' and Manziel's first game of the season, while Florida got to work out kinks and beat Bowling Green 27-14 the week before by rallying after being tied 14-14 well into the third quarter.. I'm just not convinced that Florida is consistent enough yet. We'll see how they do in their Bowl game.

[eroszag]

The only thing that bothers me is Oregon loss to Stanford last week...ball to DAT, no missed FGs and FGs on 4th downs, would have saved us from another SEC team in the BCS Championship game.

[preston]

THAT team gets to play for the national championship? And, now I gotta root for Alabama? (not as much faith in GA...)

[Marlow]

THAT team gets to play for the national championship? And, now I gotta root for Alabama?

Truth! The two teams I dislike the most!! When I hafta root for Bama, you know that there is something monstrously wrong!

[Blues]

THAT team gets to play for the national championship? And, now I gotta root for Alabama?

Truth! The two teams I dislike the most!! When I hafta root for Bama, you know that there is something monstrously wrong!

Humbug to you guys.. I have an immediate family member who's a Notre Dame alum, and my all time favorite track coach (who had a philosophy and wit somewhat similar to Marlow's) bled Notre Dame Blue and Gold, so GO IRISH!!!

[Master Po]

no particular feelings about any of these top teams, but -- all other things being equal -- I'll hope for ND to win, just to change up the SEC dominance of NCAA football (...for a moment...until it resumes next year...)

[Daisy]

I'll hope for ND to win, just to change up the SEC dominance of NCAA football

They'll pick up a lot of fans due to this stance.

[26mi235]

1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 12-0 1 2,869 .9979 1 1,469 .9959 1.0000 .9979 1
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 11-1 2 2,740 .9530 2 1,398 .9478 .8700 .9236 2
3 Georgia Bulldogs 11-1 3 2,599 .9040 3 1,341 .9092 .8600 .8911 3
4 Florida Gators 11-1 5 2,435 .8470 5 1,265 .8576 .9600 .8882 4
3. Thus, Georgia will be at about 0.95, 0.94, and 0.91, for a composite of 0.933 while Florida will be at roughly 0.87, 0.88, and 0.95 for a composite of 0.900. It will not be particularly close.

Note that if Alabama wins, their already big advantage of 0.035 will grow because their computer polls will likely give them three 2, which will add places and drop points for Florida while they will be higher in both human polls. The get about 0.05 above Florida, and possibly north of there by as much as 0.025 (e.g., 0.95 vs 0.915 and maybe 0.96 to 0.90)

Actual difference is .9441 - .8984 = .0457, close enough to 0.5, the difference is that Florida just missed displacing some 2s for Florida in the CPs.

Here are the final rankings:

1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 12-0 1 2,866 .9969 1 1,470 .9966 1.0000 .9978 1
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 2 2,765 .9617 2 1,417 .9607 .9100 .9441 2
3 Florida Gators 11-1 4 2,480 .8626 4 1,287 .8725 .9600 .8984 4

[jazzcyclist]

Nick Saban is such a whiner. First he complained about Oregon's fast-break offense being unfair to defenses, then he complained about then media building up his team too much and now he's complaining about getting left out of the BCS if Alabama loses the SEC Championship game. Will Muschamp thinks someone needs to call the wambulance for him.

If Alabama coach Nick Saban doesn't like the way the Bowl Championship Series is playing out, Florida coach Will Muschamp has a solution.

"Well, I can switch and go to Atlanta if he doesn't want to go to Atlanta and play the Dawgs," Muschamp said Monday. "Be careful what you ask for, Nick."

Saban said Sunday that is isn't fair that the Gators, fifth-ranked in the BCS, likely will play in the Sugar Bowl over the loser of the Southeastern Conference title game. No. 2 Alabama plays No. 3 Georgia for the SEC title Saturday, with the winner advancing to the BCS title game in Miami and the loser probably landing in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.

"It's not really a great scenario," Saban said. "You play your way into the (SEC) championship game, which means you're the best team in your division. ... It doesn't seem quite right, but it is what it is. I don't really know what me commenting about it is going to do to change it. But I don't feel good about it."

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... let-switch

[jazzcyclist]

I am not sure why jazzcyclist is not quite as much on top of this as he is almost everything else in this (and many other) domain(s).

I think any slim chance that Florida had of playing for the Crystal Football evaporated when they failed to jump past Oregon in the human polls this week. In order for them to have had any chance, they would have needed to be #4 in the human polls with a chance to move up to #3 after next weekend, not #5 with a chance to move up to #4. I thought the voters might jump them over Oregon after what they did to the Seminoles, but I guess they really frowned upon their Missouri and ULL wins. And since both Oregon and Florida are idle this weekend, I don't see the voters having a change of heart and jumping Florida over Oregon. But one thing that you're forgetting is that its not a fait accompli that the winner of the SEC Championship game will be #3 in the computer polls since both Kansas State and Stanford play this weekend also, and it's not out of the realm of possibilities that one or both of those teams could act as a buffer in the computer polls between Florida and the winner of the SEC Championship game.

[preston]

I hate to say it, but I agree with Saban the mercenary: the 2nd place SEC team (the team that loses the title game) should get the Sugar Bowl. If we're gonna have playoffs then the playoffs should matter.

[jazzcyclist]

For once I agree with Skip Bayless. The Heisman Trophy should go to Manti Te'o, the best player on the best team in the nation. Notre Dame is not #1 because of its offense, it's because of a defense that held eight of its opponents to their lowest score of the season. Unlike Johnny Football, who cost his team against Florida and LSU, Te'o didn't have a bad Saturday all year

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... 12-heisman

[Marlow]

For once I agree with Skip Bayless. The Heisman Trophy should go to Manti Te'o, the best player on the best team in the nation. Notre Dame is not #1 because of its offense, it's because of a defense that held eight of its opponents to their lowest score of the season. Unlike Johnny Football, who cost his team against Florida and LSU, Te'o didn't have a bad Saturday all year
http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... 12-heisman

It'd be so cool if a D-Guy won it, but we all know that ain't gonna happen. I was mad last year because RG3 won it by having a great last half a year, while Luck was Da Man all season for 3 seasons (yes, I know it's not a multi-year award, but justice was NOT served!). I want C Klein to win for the Season.

[preston]

For once I agree with Skip Bayless. The Heisman Trophy should go to Manti Te'o, the best player on the best team in the nation. Notre Dame is not #1 because of its offense, it's because of a defense that held eight of its opponents to their lowest score of the season. Unlike Johnny Football, who cost his team against Florida and LSU, Te'o didn't have a bad Saturday all year

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... 12-heisman

I HATE YOU, jazz!!!! No. Never. That school is never to win another Heisman!!! Tim Brown was the last undeserving player from there. Gordie Lockbaum played both ways; Lorenzo White was toting the rock 50 times a game - and Ironhead had more carries and yards than he DID; Thurman Thomas was holding back Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith had a better season than Bobby Humpries (who would later get his jaw broken in a fight over a woman). Even Don McPherson (I despised the Coach McPherson for not shaking Pat Dye's hand because he played for a tie rather than lose) had a "better" season than Timmy who was the Miami players said cried every time they hit em. HELL NO, No Te'o!!!

I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! I hate you, jazz! Never say that school and Heisman ever again!

[preston]

Of the top 25 players projected to be drafted next year into the NFL almost half are SEC defensive players. Te'o is overhyped. If he played elsewhere he would only be good.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

RANK PLAYER POS. POS. RANK SCHOOL CLASS HT. WT. PROJ. ROUND
1 *Luke Joeckel OT 1 Texas A&M Jr 6-6 310 1
2 Star Lotulelei DT 1 Utah Sr 6-3 320 1
3 *Jarvis Jones OLB 1 Georgia rJr 6-2 242 1
4 *Dee Milliner CB 1 Alabama Jr 6-1 198 1
5 Manti Te'o ILB 1 Notre Dame Sr 6-2 255 1
6 Chance Warmack OG 1 Alabama Sr 6-2 322 1
7 *Bjoern Werner DE 1 Florida State Jr 6-4 256 1
8 *Damontre Moore DE 2 Texas A&M Jr 6-4 250 1
9 *Johnathan Hankins DT 2 Ohio State Jr 6-3 320 1
10 Geno Smith QB 1 West Virginia Sr 6-3 220 1
11 *Taylor Lewan OT 2 Michigan rJr 6-7 310 1
12 *Barkevious Mingo OLB 2 LSU rJr 6-4 240 1
13 *Jake Matthews OT 3 Texas A&M Jr 6-5 305 1
14 Jonathan Cooper OG 3 North Carolina rSr 6-3 310 1
15 *Sheldon Richardson DT 3 Missouri rJr 6-3 295 1
16 *Sam Montgomery DE 3 LSU rJr 6-5 260 1
17 Jesse Williams DT 4 Alabama Sr 6-3 320 1
18 Matt Barkley QB 2 Southern California Sr 6-2 230 1
19 Johnthan Banks CB 2 Mississippi State Sr 6-1 185 1
20 John Jenkins DT 5 Georgia Sr 6-3 358 1
21 *C.J. Mosley OLB 3 Alabama Jr 6-2 232 1
22 *Keenan Allen WR 1 California Jr 6-3 210 1
23 Alex Okafor DE 4 Texas Sr 6-5 265 1
24 *Eric Reid FS 1 LSU Jr 6-2 212 1
25 Eric Fisher OT 4 Central Michigan Sr 6-7 305 1

http://walterfootball.com/draft2013.php

3. Te'o is the best player available in a very weak class.

[Marlow]

the top 25 players projected to be drafted next year

18 Matt Barkley

So . . . USC was pre-season #1 and so was Barkley.
How the mighty have fallen!

[26mi235]

Of the top 25 players projected to be drafted next year into the NFL almost half are SEC defensive players.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

OT DT OLB CB ILB OG DE DE DT QB OT OLB OT OG DT DE DT QB CB DT WR DE FS OT

Has anyone EVER seen this distribution , only three 'skill positions in the top 25 and they average 17th

10 QB
18 QB
23 WR

Barkley IS the second QB listed

[j-a-m]

Nick Saban is such a whiner. First he complained about Oregon's fast-break offense being unfair to defenses, then he complained about then media building up his team too much and now he's complaining about getting left out of the BCS if Alabama loses the SEC Championship game. Will Muschamp thinks someone needs to call the wambulance for him.

If Alabama coach Nick Saban doesn't like the way the Bowl Championship Series is playing out, Florida coach Will Muschamp has a solution.

"Well, I can switch and go to Atlanta if he doesn't want to go to Atlanta and play the Dawgs," Muschamp said Monday. "Be careful what you ask for, Nick."

Saban said Sunday that is isn't fair that the Gators, fifth-ranked in the BCS, likely will play in the Sugar Bowl over the loser of the Southeastern Conference title game. No. 2 Alabama plays No. 3 Georgia for the SEC title Saturday, with the winner advancing to the BCS title game in Miami and the loser probably landing in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando.

"It's not really a great scenario," Saban said. "You play your way into the (SEC) championship game, which means you're the best team in your division. ... It doesn't seem quite right, but it is what it is. I don't really know what me commenting about it is going to do to change it. But I don't feel good about it."

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... let-switch

You've gotta be kidding me (and by "you" I mean Nick Saban). It's been less than a year that Bama played for a national championship despite not winning its own division.

If Saban feels that strongly about the importance of winning one's division, then sure Nick, be consistent and send last year's trophy over to Baton Rouge, because LSU won the division over Bama, making them the better team.

[Pego]

Of the top 25 players projected to be drafted next year into the NFL almost half are SEC defensive players.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

OT DT OLB CB ILB OG DE DE DT QB OT OLB OT OG DT DE DT QB CB DT WR DE FS OT

Has anyone EVER seen this distribution , only three 'skill positions in the top 25 and they average 17th

10 QB
18 QB
23 WR

Barkley IS the second QB listed

So far, mock drafts predict Geno Smith to be the first selection.

[Blues]

Of the top 25 players projected to be drafted next year into the NFL almost half are SEC defensive players.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

OT DT OLB CB ILB OG DE DE DT QB OT OLB OT OG DT DE DT QB CB DT WR DE FS OT

Has anyone EVER seen this distribution , only three 'skill positions in the top 25 and they average 17th

10 QB
18 QB
23 WR

Barkley IS the second QB listed

Speaking of Barkley, since USC got caught letting some air out of the game balls to try to give USC, Barkley, and maybe his receivers a competitive advantage in the Oregon game, I can't help but wonder if there's a chance that they got away with it in previous games.. If they did, it might have had a slight effect on Barkley's passing stats..

[jazzcyclist]

So now Miles is trying to squeeze LSU for more money. I say let him go to Fayetteville if he's going to play these games. It's one thing for him to talk to the folks in Ann Harbor, where his heart still is, and where he might seriously want to coach at one day. But don't insult my intelligence by telling me you would leave LSU for Arkansas over a couple hundred thousand dollars.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... ing-report

[preston]

So now Miles is trying to squeeze LSU for more money. I say let him go to Fayetteville if he's going to play these games. It's one thing for him to talk to the folks in Ann Harbor, where his heart still is, and where he might seriously want to coach at one day. But don't insult my intelligence by telling me you would leave LSU for Arkansas over a couple hundred thousand dollars.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... ing-report

Ok. Was there a body transfer last night where you say something emotionally ridiculous about college football and I come in as the voice of reason? Miles ain't leaving and LSU can't afford to let him go. Big Programs like that just can't take a chance on the hot young assistant or flavor of the month mid-major coach taking over a program like that. LSU will make it worth his while...nothing to see here.

Separately, why doesn't the ACC kick "that school" out of the ACC now that they have Louisville? I would tell them that either they bring football to the mix or they can pound sand, but using the conference to for all sports but football makes the ACC look weak. No wonder Maryland left. (I would have chosen UCONN, but Louisville is the right choice)

[Dutra5]

Miles gets his extension.

[Marlow]

Miles gets his extension.

It's all about leverage . . .

[gh]

Be interesting to see who wins the Stanford/UCLA swim meet this evening. As in, hoo-boy is it wet here!