2012 College Football


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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby j-a-m » Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:24 am

By the way, I expect USC to beat Notre Dame without Matt Barkley. They still have great receivers, the back-up QB is good (except for the lack of experience), and so on.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Nov 21, 2012 6:06 am

j-a-m wrote:By the way, I expect USC to beat Notre Dame without Matt Barkley. They still have great receivers, the back-up QB is good (except for the lack of experience), and so on.

If that happens, we could have another all-SEC championship game if Florida can get past Florida State.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:12 am

j-a-m wrote:By the way, I expect USC to beat Notre Dame without Matt Barkley. They still have great receivers, the back-up QB is good (except for the lack of experience), and so on.


I wound not be surprised if ND's best quarter out-scores USC, either.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:08 pm

26mi235 wrote:I wound not be surprised if ND's best quarter out-scores USC, either.

It won't be a cake-walk, but ND wouldn't still be undefeated if they couldn't beat a Barkley-less SC. I'm a card-carrying ND hata (have you seen this week's SI, with a picture of an uplifted ND golden helmet with TD Jesus reflected in it? - ugh!), but the talking heads are already disparaging ND's predicted win over SC as worthless because Barkley ain't there! :roll:
I useta be a big SC-hata too, but I've mellowed and really, really hope they can pull the upset.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:38 pm

Rumor has it that the NCAA is getting ready to drop the hammer on Auburn football.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... ources-say


Also, the NCAA has given an ultimatum to former Miami Hurricanes football players, many who are now in the NFL: "If you don't agree to be cross-examined by us, we'll take the word of Nevin "the Rat" Shapiro as the gospel, and drop the hammer on your alma mater".

I think the NCAA member schools will rue the day that they let them get away with making up rules on the fly to drop the hammer on Penn State, because all it did was embolden them.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:14 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:Rumor has it that the NCAA is getting ready to drop the hammer on Auburn football.

They woulda/coulda/shoulda on Cam Newton, but he was too hot a property to throw under the bus for the sins of many others. You gotta know they were highly distraught when the Honey Badger, arguably their hottest 2012 property, went off the deep end.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby guru » Wed Nov 21, 2012 7:07 pm

Marlow wrote:
26mi235 wrote:I wound not be surprised if ND's best quarter out-scores USC, either.

It won't be a cake-walk, but ND wouldn't still be undefeated if they couldn't beat a Barkley-less SC.



Irish first #1 to be less than a seven point favorite over an unranked team since 1985
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:28 am

guru wrote:Irish first #1 to be less than a seven point favorite over an unranked team since 1985

I'd take ND with 6.5, wouldn't you?
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Pego » Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:48 am

Marlow wrote:
guru wrote:Irish first #1 to be less than a seven point favorite over an unranked team since 1985

I'd take ND with 6.5, wouldn't you?


You are on for the standard trash talk rights :wink: , -6.5 ND for you it is.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:50 pm

Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:
guru wrote:Irish first #1 to be less than a seven point favorite over an unranked team since 1985

I'd take ND with 6.5, wouldn't you?

You are on for the standard trash talk rights :wink: , -6.5 ND for you it is.

What, no hot dogs?! :D
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Pego » Fri Nov 23, 2012 5:14 am

Marlow wrote:
Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:
guru wrote:Irish first #1 to be less than a seven point favorite over an unranked team since 1985

I'd take ND with 6.5, wouldn't you?

You are on for the standard trash talk rights :wink: , -6.5 ND for you it is.

What, no hot dogs?! :D


Sure, why not 8-) ?
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Fri Nov 23, 2012 6:44 am

Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Pego wrote:
Marlow wrote:I'd take ND with 6.5, wouldn't you?

You are on for the standard trash talk rights :wink: , -6.5 ND for you it is.

What, no hot dogs?! :D

Sure, why not 8-) ?

Double or nothing!!
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Pego » Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:56 am

Boy, the thrills of high stakes gambling have me shiver all over. You are on.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sat Nov 24, 2012 8:18 pm

Pego wrote:Boy, the thrills of high stakes gambling have me shiver all over. You are on.

Just mustard and onions on mine, please! :wink:
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Pego » Sun Nov 25, 2012 4:24 am

Marlow wrote:
Pego wrote:Boy, the thrills of high stakes gambling have me shiver all over. You are on.

Just mustard and onions on mine, please! :wink:


When SC had the first down on 2, I thought it was in the bag :mrgreen: .
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:38 am

Last night the #1 team met an unranked team in the L.A. Coliseum. Of course that's not a surprise since USC started out the season #1 and Notre Dame started out unranked. But what wasn't expected was that the teams would flip flop, with Notre Dame rising to the #1 ranking and USC falling out of the rankings. Has this ever happened before? I know this is the first time that a AP preseason unranked team has ever finished the season #1 in the BCS era. By the way, Notre Dame held eight of its 12 opponents to their lowest score of the season and their defense only allowed one rushing touchdown for the entire season. Additionally, they allowed minus 5 yards for the entire season in first-and-goal situations. :shock:

Yesterday, we found out why the ACC is the ACC, with the SEC going 4-0 in ACC-SEC matchups, including dominating wins over the two best teams in the conference, #10 Florida State and #11 Clemson. I hope Jimbo Fisher will shut his pie hole now.

Because of Florida's very strong computer ranking, due to wins over four top-12 teams (Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina and Florida State), I wouldn't count them out of the Crystal Football picture just yet. So far, both Georgia and Alabama have only one top-12 win on their resumes, so even winning the SEC championship game will only give the winner half as many top-12 wins as Florida.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:27 am

Pego wrote:When SC had the first down on 2, I thought it was in the bag :mrgreen: .

I'd've much preferred you had won the bet!
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Pego » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:08 am

jazzcyclist wrote:Last night the #1 team met an unranked team in the L.A. Coliseum. Of course that's not a surprise since USC started out the season #1 and Notre Dame started out unranked. But what wasn't expected was that the teams would flip flop, with Notre Dame rising to the #1 ranking and USC falling out of the rankings. Has this ever happened before? I know this is the first time that a AP preseason unranked team has ever finished the season #1 in the BCS era. By the way, Notre Dame held eight of its 12 opponents to their lowest score of the season and their defense only allowed one rushing touchdown for the entire season. Additionally, they allowed minus 5 yards for the entire season in first-and-goal situations. :shock:

Yesterday, we found out why the ACC is the ACC, with the SEC going 4-0 in ACC-SEC matchups, including dominating wins over the two best teams in the conference, #10 Florida State and #11 Clemson. I hope Jimbo Fisher will shut his pie hole now.

Because of Florida's very strong computer ranking, due to wins over four top-12 teams (Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina and Florida State), I wouldn't count them out of the Crystal Football picture just yet. So far, both Georgia and Alabama have only one top-12 win on their resumes, so even winning the SEC championship game will only give the winner half as many top-12 wins as Florida.


I don't see how could Florida leap over the winner of Alabama-Georgia regardless of the merits.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:28 am

Pego wrote:I don't see how could Florida leap over the winner of Alabama-Georgia regardless of the merits.

If Florida finshes #3 in the human polls, which they should, their high computer ranking might be enough to get them past the winner of the SEC Championship game, who will be #2 in the human polls.

By the way, I think voters will be a lot less likely to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt in the future, after Stanford exposed what would happen to their basketball-on-grass offense if it had to face one of the best SEC schools or Notre Dame.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:15 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:I don't see how could Florida leap over the winner of Alabama-Georgia regardless of the merits.

If Florida finshes #3 in the human polls, which they should, their high computer ranking might be enough to get them past the winner of the SEC Championship game, who will be #2 in the human polls.

By the way, I think voters will be a lot less likely to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt in the future, after Stanford exposed what would happen to their basketball-on-grass offense if it had to face one of the best SEC schools or Notre Dame.


Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:23 am

Dutra5 wrote:Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.

There's no way Florida jumps Georgia (to whom they lost, head-to-head) if Ga wins!!
The BCS Game is set!
ND vs. SEC winner.

Rose will be Stanford vs. Neb
Orange: FSU - Louisville (Big East Champ?! - should be loser of SEC game)
Sugar: Gators and Sooners
Fiesta: KSt and Oregon - great game!!!

I'm very pleased that 12-0 OhioSt is outside looking in, with their sad puppy-dog eyes and their noses pressed up against the Bowl window. :twisted:
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:32 am

Dutra5 wrote:Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.

I don't know why you would say this. The computers don't know what name is on the jerseys, and like Georgia, Alabama has had only one signature win all season.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:38 am

Marlow wrote:There's no way Florida jumps Georgia (to whom they lost, head-to-head) if Ga wins!!

I beginning to think that some of you fokks don't understand how the computer rankings work.

Marlow wrote:I'm very pleased that 12-0 OhioSt is outside looking in, with their sad puppy-dog eyes and their noses pressed up against the Bowl window. :twisted:

If the NCAA had banned Ohio State in a timely manner instead of delaying the inevitable due to politics, Ohio State would have served their bowl ban two years ago when they played in the Sugar Bowl, and they would be in BCS contention today. This is poetic justice IMO.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:51 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:There's no way Florida jumps Georgia (to whom they lost, head-to-head) if Ga wins!!

I beginning to think that some of you fokks don't understand how the computer rankings work.

So give us a scenario where Fla, now idle, jumps two teams already above them in the BCS standings, one of which will beat the other and reap even greater "computer rankings", which already had them ahead of the Gators.

I'm beginning to think you don't understand how . . . math works. :shock:
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby j-a-m » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:52 am

Marlow wrote:Sugar: Gators and Sooners

There's still a small chance that Kent State makes the top 16 and takes that spot away from OU.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby j-a-m » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:56 am

jazzcyclist wrote:If Florida finshes #3 in the human polls, which they should, their high computer ranking might be enough to get them past the winner of the SEC Championship game, who will be #2 in the human polls.

Just because they should doesn't mean they will; Florida probably won't be much ahead of Oregon in the polls, if at all. But yeah, they should be, given that are the one-loss team with the toughest schedule.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby j-a-m » Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:07 am

Marlow wrote:So give us a scenario where Fla, now idle, jumps two teams already above them in the BCS standings, one of which will beat the other and reap even greater "computer rankings", which already had them ahead of the Gators.

Florida is going to close in on second place between this week and next. It's most likely not enough, but close in they will.

The winner of the SEC game won't gain much, because they are already that high. Florida gains more, because right now the loser of the SEC game acts as a buffer in the polls, and that buffer disappears next week.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:22 am

Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:There's no way Florida jumps Georgia (to whom they lost, head-to-head) if Ga wins!!

I beginning to think that some of you fokks don't understand how the computer rankings work.

So give us a scenario where Fla, now idle, jumps two teams already above them in the BCS standings, one of which will beat the other and reap even greater "computer rankings", which already had them ahead of the Gators.

I'm beginning to think you don't understand how . . . math works. :shock:

Do you understand that one of the teams in front of Florida will drop in the human polls after next week which bump Florida up one spot?

Did you realize that Florida was #2 in five of the six computer polls before they beat Florida State and that beating Florida State will strengthen their computer ranking?

Did realize that by playing relative weak opponents this past weekend, both Alabama and Georgia will likely lose ground to Florida in the computers?
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:28 am

Two years after bringing home the Crystal Football, Gene Chizik gets the ax. I guess he's not such a good coach wthout Cam Newton.

http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index. ... after.html
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Blues » Sun Nov 25, 2012 12:02 pm

Marlow wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.

There's no way Florida jumps Georgia (to whom they lost, head-to-head) if Ga wins!!
The BCS Game is set!
ND vs. SEC winner.

Rose will be Stanford vs. Neb
Orange: FSU - Louisville (Big East Champ?! - should be loser of SEC game)
Sugar: Gators and Sooners
Fiesta: KSt and Oregon - great game!!!

I'm very pleased that 12-0 OhioSt is outside looking in, with their sad puppy-dog eyes and their noses pressed up against the Bowl window. :twisted:


I hate to say it, but I kinda hope you're right that it's Louisville... As an alum of the school that will play Louisville on Thursday night for the Big East's BCS berth, I think it's more of an injustice this year than in any other that a Big East team will get a BCS berth over many teams that are obviously superior... Regardless of whether Big East champ Louisville or Big East champ Rutgers plays the ACC champ or the Big 12 champ or the SEC #2 or #3, it might be one of the most lopsided games in BCS bowl history.. :(
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby j-a-m » Sun Nov 25, 2012 12:15 pm

j-a-m wrote:There's still a small chance that Kent State makes the top 16 and takes that spot away from OU.

or Northern Illinois or Boise, for that matter. All three are not gonna be that far behind #16 tonight; and Northern Illinois and Kent State play next week, so one of them gets a quality win.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 1:16 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:Do you understand that . . .
Did you realize that . . .
Did realize that . . .

If Fla leap-frogs the SEC Champion, then, yes, I will freely admit I have no freakin' idea how this all works.

But . . . if they don't, then you are gonna hafta shut up that you do. This is called the Brutex Protocol, named after a multi-monikered erstwhile poster here, who also purported himself to be THE authority.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 1:40 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:Georgia maybe. No way Florida is jumping over Bama if Bama wins.

I don't know why you would say this. The computers don't know what name is on the jerseys, and like Georgia, Alabama has had only one signature win all season.


Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Blues » Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:46 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Pego wrote:I don't see how could Florida leap over the winner of Alabama-Georgia regardless of the merits.

If Florida finshes #3 in the human polls, which they should, their high computer ranking might be enough to get them past the winner of the SEC Championship game, who will be #2 in the human polls.

By the way, I think voters will be a lot less likely to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt in the future, after Stanford exposed what would happen to their basketball-on-grass offense if it had to face one of the best SEC schools or Notre Dame.


I think it'll be pretty tough for Florida to get enough points in the Harris and USA Today Polls to pass Georgia despite a higher percentage than the Bulldogs in the computer scoring, if Georgia can beat Alabama for the SEC title and when voters consider that Georgia beat Florida head to head at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Stranger things have happened though.. And other than Florida's fourth quarter domination of a good Florida State team that turned the ball over 5 times in the game, their play really doesn't seem that impressive to me, especially over the past 4 or 5 games...
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:07 pm

Marlow wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:Do you understand that . . .
Did you realize that . . .
Did realize that . . .

If Fla leap-frogs the SEC Champion, then, yes, I will freely admit I have no freakin' idea how this all works.

But . . . if they don't, then you are gonna hafta shut up that you do. This is called the Brutex Protocol, named after a multi-monikered erstwhile poster here, who also purported himself to be THE authority.

Well, you doing what many people do when they can't handle the message: attack the messanger. For the record, I never predicted that Florida would jump the SEC Champiom in the final BCS rankings, and I know they won't jump them in the human polls, but it is possible that they their superior computer ranking will be enough to overcome a #3 ranking in the human polls. If you followed these things, you would know that on three other occasions, one of the top two teams in the human polls was left out of the championship game. I see that j-a-m gets what I'm talking about, and I'm sure that my fellow math major, 26mi understand too, but I guess it's asking too much for you to grasp what I'm saying.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:10 pm

Dutra5 wrote:Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math. :(
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby jazzcyclist » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:19 pm

Blues wrote:I think it'll be pretty tough for Florida to get enough points in the Harris and USA Today Polls to pass Georgia despite a higher percentage than the Bulldogs in the computer scoring, if Georgia can beat Alabama for the SEC title and when voters consider that Georgia beat Florida head to head at a neutral site in Jacksonville. Stranger things have happened though.. And other than Florida's fourth quarter domination of a good Florida State team that turned the ball over 5 times in the game, their play really doesn't seem that impressive to me, especially over the past 4 or 5 games...

The scenario that I'm talking about doesn't hinge on voters putting Florida over Georgia. It hinges on Florida being #2 in all the computer polls and Georgia being #4 or #5 in the computer polls. Florida beat Texas A&M, they beat LSU, they dismantled South Carolina and they beat Florida State. Name another team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Marlow » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:39 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:The scenario that I'm talking about doesn't hinge on voters putting Florida over Georgia. It hinges on Florida being #2 in all the computer polls and Georgia being #4 or #5 in the computer polls. Florida beat Texas A&M, they beat LSU, they dismantled South Carolina and they beat Florida State. Name another team in the country with a more impressive set of wins.

We 'get' it. If Fla jumps Bama and Geo, you da man! If they don't, you ain't.

With tonight's BCS Standings showing this:

1 Notre Dame
2 Alabama
3 Georgia
4 Florida

explain the math to me that sends the SEC champion below Florida . . . :?: :roll:
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:38 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math. :(


I understand math just fine.

Come up with a plausible situation in which Florida passes Alabama after an Alabama win in the SEC championship game.

At this point Florida is second in all the computer polls save one. Alabama with a win, if anything, would move up higher in the computer polls because they are playing Georgia which is rated higher than Alabama in a couple of them. Alabama with a win will not lose ground in the people polls. Florida could pick up some ground there but certainly nowhere near enough to pass Alabama.

With Georgia, it is also a stretch as they will be ranked a clear #2 in the people polls and will pick up ground in the computers...certainly more than an idle Florida would.
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Re: 2012 College Football

Postby Blues » Sun Nov 25, 2012 11:45 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:Yet they are both ahead of Florida right now. Whichever team wins will have it's "signature" win anyway and there's next to no chance Alabama gets passed.

I give up. Some people just don't understand simple math. :(


I understand math and I'm aware that the BCS standings are based on the average of 1) the overall computer ranking percentage, 2)the Harris Poll percentage where Florida is currently ranked 5th behind #4 Oregon, and 3) the USA Today poll percentage where Florida is currently ranked 5th also behind #4 Oregon. I just don't see Florida being able to jump into the number two spot in the BCS without losses by both Alabama and Georgia, which is impossible.

Whichever team wins the SEC title game will get more points in the human polls, which account for 66.6% of the BCS standings weight. If Alabama wins, they'll still probably get more points in the human polls from voters who didn't vote them 1 or 2 previously, and they may increase their 2 number 1 votes in the USA Today poll and 5 number 1 votes in the Harris poll that they currently have... If Georgia beats Alabama and moves up to number 2, Georgia will probably improve by about 0.05% in each human poll, giving them about a .1% margin over Florida in each human poll, even if Florida moves up to #4 in both human polls based on Alabama moving down after a loss to Georgia. I doubt whether the computer poll can give Florida the additional increase over Georgia (in addition to the advantage they already have) that they'll need to overcome their deficit in both human polls...

Here are the current BCS rankings and percentages as of today:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

So from the current BCS rankings Florida currently has a score of .960 in the computer poll to .860 for Georgia. That accounts for a third of the BCS ranking score. Maximum is 1.000, so it seems that Florida can only increase their lead by 0.04 max if they increase at all after the SEC title game, as long as Georgia's computer score doesn't somehow go down if Georgia wins. Georgia, currently in 3rd place in both human polls, has a .0516% advantage over Florida in the USA Today Poll, and a .057% lead over Florida in the Harris Poll. If Georgia beats Alabama, they'll increase their score in both human polls to a greater degree than Florida will if Florida moves up to #4 based on Alabama dropping, so I don't see the math that would allow Florida to pass Georgia if Georgia can beat the Tide, nor do I see any plausible math that allows Florida to pass Alabama if Alabama wins, since the human polls carry two-thirds of the BCS rankings weight.. Admittedly I'm not a mathematician and I'm sure there are some scenarios I've missed, and I welcome any corrections to my logic from the numbers guys in here.
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