2011 Tour de France

[502CD]

If he rebounds strong I'm sure many will ask how he did it. Sad that this is where the sport is now.

[jazzcyclist]

If he rebounds strong I'm sure many will ask how he did it. Sad that this is where the sport is now.

This whole thing should have been resolved before he was allowed to ride this year's Tour, and the Giro too for that matter.

[Pego]

In the June edition of Natural History, there is a great essay by Dr. Druin Burch called Blood Sports. It deals with EPO (and overall hematocrit enhancement methods) in endurance sports, particularly cycling. He offers some rather surprising observation (in short, he is skeptical of its benefits). All of those here interested in the subject should make an effort to obtain it. I was unable to find the link to it on the Natural History website.

[Conor Dary]

So EPO was a big todo about nothing!

Seriously, thanks Pego, I will try to look for it.

[kuha]

In the June edition of Natural History, there is a great essay by Dr. Druin Burch called Blood Sports. It deals with EPO (and overall hematocrit enhancement methods) in endurance sports, particularly cycling. He offers some rather surprising observation (in short, he is skeptical of its benefits). All of those here interested in the subject should make an effort to obtain it. I was unable to find the link to it on the Natural History website.

Extreme Placebo Option?

[Conor Dary]

Extreme Placebo Option?

Wouldn't be the first time.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archive ... tpage=true

[jazzcyclist]

I don't ever recall a Tour in which riders, some of them seasoned veterans, had so many problems on the descents.

[jazzcyclist]

Voeckler! Voeckler! Voeckler!

[Bruce Kritzler]

Don't forget that Contador has one less arrow than usual in his quiver this year...

What are you talking about?

He hasn't been able to eat any of that "tainted" beef!

[jazzcyclist]

Don't forget that Contador has one less arrow than usual in his quiver this year...

What are you talking about?

He hasn't been able to eat any of that "tainted" beef!

Or so you assume. By the way, wouldn't it be epic if Voeckler were able to wear yellow into Paris?

[26mi235]

He will get more specifically attacked in the Alps, I think. Plus, he is not such a great time trial guy, although Andy nearly pulled out a surprise last year (if he had been leading by 28 seconds, they would have talked no end about the 'ability' of the yellow to raise the level of the wearer.

[freddie]

By the way, wouldn't it be epic if Voeckler were able to wear yellow into Paris?

It would be a great story, but I give Voeckler no chance of winning. He has shown plenty of guts in the Pyrenees, but these mountains are nothing compared what he will face in the Alps on Thursday and Friday. Each of these stages features three HC climbs. Furthermore, Voeckler is a poor time trialist, so I expect Saturday's 42-kilometer time trial to finish him off for good.

This is shaping up as one of the best Tour finishes ever. I give Andy Schleck, Contador, and Sanchez the edge in the high Alps. If Cadel Evans can stay within a minute, however, he is the best time trialist among the contenders. I do not think he can, though. I expect him to be dropped on one of the two finishing climbs. Sanchez has shown the best form in the mountains and he is at least as good as Contador and Schleck in time trials. Still, I think it will be hard for Sanchez to make up the 1 minute 29 second deficit to Andy Schleck. I think the top three in Paris will be Andy Schleck, Sanchez, and Contador.

[jazzcyclist]

By the way, wouldn't it be epic if Voeckler were able to wear yellow into Paris?

It would be a great story, but I give Voeckler no chance of winning. He has shown plenty of guts in the Pyrenees, but these mountains are nothing compared what he will face in the Alps on Thursday and Friday.

What you're saying is true of the old Thomas Voeckler, but that guy couldn't have climbed pedal stroke for pedal stroke with the best climbers in the world on Luz-Ardiden and Plateau de Beille either. And let's not forget that Andy Schleck threw everything except the kitchen sink at him today. Maybe this isn't the same Voeckler of years past.

[freddie]

By the way, wouldn't it be epic if Voeckler were able to wear yellow into Paris?

It would be a great story, but I give Voeckler no chance of winning. He has shown plenty of guts in the Pyrenees, but these mountains are nothing compared what he will face in the Alps on Thursday and Friday.

What you're saying is true of the old Thomas Voeckler, but that guy couldn't have climbed pedal stroke for pedal stroke with the best climbers in the world on Luz-Ardiden and Plateau de Beille either. And let's not forget that Andy Schleck threw everything except the kitchen sink at him today. Maybe this isn't the same Voeckler of years past.

I do not think it is possible for a rider who has had no impact on the Tour since 2004 to reinvent himself at 32 years of age. You state correctly that Voeckler matched the top climbers in the Pyrenees, but at what cost? He was suffering on the Luz-Ardiden, and he looked none too fresh at the top of the Plateau de Beille. The Schleck brothers clearly were concerned with testing only two riders: Evans and Contador. Voeckler just happened to be there.

The highest climb in the Pyrenees was less than 7,000 feet. The riders will face four climbs between 7,700 and 9,000 feet over two days in the Alps. Do not underestimate the effects of higher altitude, limited recovery time, and a harder pace set by the real climbers. In addition, Voeckler's team is not the strongest and his teammates have expended a great deal of energy keeping him in yellow. Even Voeckler's "yellow-jersey muscles" will not be enough to overcome his shortcomings as a climber in the Alps. He will crack on one of these ascents.

[jazzcyclist]

The Schleck brothers clearly were concerned with testing only two riders: Evans and Contador. Voeckler just happened to be there.

Speaking of the Schlecks, I hate their surge-and-recover style of attacking. It's as if they don't have confidence that they can ride their competitors off their wheels a la Armstrong. There's minimal drafting at 12 m.p.h. and 7000 feet of altitide anyway, so why not bend them until they break if you feel like you're the strongest. When Lance Armstrong and US Postal were in their heyday, they would just get on the front and set a steady, brutal tempo and never let up, and if someone could stay with him all the way to the finish line, more power to them. Most of the time, the other riders would crack one by one until Armstrong was the last man standing at the summit, with the two notable exceptions being Joseba Beloki in 2002 and Ivan Basso in 2004. Not only are you more likely to break other riders this way rather than going for knock-out punch, but you don't have to worry about non-GC contenders sneaking off the front and winning the stage as happened yesterday. I seem to remember Contador and Schleck giving away stage last year because they were shadow boxing each other while ignoring other riders passing them up.

[bambam]

By the way, wouldn't it be epic if Voeckler were able to wear yellow into Paris?

It would be a great story, but I give Voeckler no chance of winning. He has shown plenty of guts in the Pyrenees, but these mountains are nothing compared what he will face in the Alps on Thursday and Friday.

What you're saying is true of the old Thomas Voeckler, but that guy couldn't have climbed pedal stroke for pedal stroke with the best climbers in the world on Luz-Ardiden and Plateau de Beille either. And let's not forget that Andy Schleck threw everything except the kitchen sink at him today. Maybe this isn't the same Voeckler of years past.

I would agree - I think Voeckler is going to win. Contador is obviously not on his top form to put several minutes into anybody. And remember that Andy Schleck has been at less than his top form this year, and he certainly could not drop anybody Saturday. There's only one time trial, and although Voeckler is not great at them, neither are Schleck or Contador. Evans is another story, as he is a reasonably good time trialist, but nobody speaks of him like Armstrong or Indurain, and if Voeckler can keep his lead to Saturday, not certain Evans has enough to move ahead of him.

[Conor Dary]

I hate their surge-and-recover style of attacking. It's as if they don't have confidence that they can ride their competitors off their wheels a la Armstrong.

I hate it too. Just so boring. A little surge and then they quit.

[kuha]

They advertise pills on TV to cure this.

[jazzcyclist]

Mario Cipollini, the Lion King himself weighs in on Mark Cavendish.

At the moment, with the team he’s got, the sprints in this Tour shouldn’t even be a contest, but I don’t think his form is even 70 per cent of what it should be. . . . .

I think it’s a cultural problem. Someone who’s grown up on the Isle of Man can’t have been steeped in cycling. Living in Tuscany is bringing him something that he probably didn’t have before. I mean, there’s a lot of interest in him, a lot of attention, the money is flowing in very easily – and I’m glad that it is – but all of this has perhaps made him lose some of his equilibrium because of that lack of cycling culture. . . . .

At 100 per cent fitness, he has no rivals. He has a change of pace that no one can match. This year he hasn’t had any big injuries or crashes, which means that, if he’s only at 70 per cent, he hasn’t been training enough. That’s my opinion. He was like a little barrel when he arrived at the Giro in May and yet it only took him a week to find a level of fitness which allowed him to play with his rivals. This tells you that if he shows up to a race in form, there’s no stopping him. He has the gift of a great talent but also the curse of not being able to express it fully all of the time.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cipolli ... n-top-form

Then, there's this.

He still has things to learn. Respect for himself, respect for his profession and respect for his rivals. With his talent I would have won 25 races (this season), and not five as he has done this year.

http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/07/08/ca ... cipollini/

[26mi235]

There's only one time trial, and although Voeckler is not great at them, neither are Schleck or Contador. Evans is another story, as he is a reasonably good time trialist, but nobody speaks of him like Armstrong or Indurain, and if Voeckler can keep his lead to Saturday, not certain Evans has enough to move ahead of him.

There is more to time trialing than the energy output. The other contenders have spent a lot of time perfecting their time-trial riding and I doubt that Voeckler has. Contador is much better than an average time trial rider.

As for tactics in the high mountains, it can depend on the wind, which can be rather strong and cause more problems for leading than you might think, especially when the differential between riders is pretty small. That is one of the reason that Armstrong had so many good riders to push the first part of the climbs and why they went out and got Heras.

Beloki had the disadvantage that he was not as good a Cyclist as Armstrong, who was very skilled on the bike (just think of the escape he made when Beloki so spectacularly crashed and ended his career).

Evans does seem to be just a notch below those that typically win the tour (and some that do not) and will likely lose time on the big days that go somewhat harder throughout; but that is just a guess.

[jazzcyclist]

As for tactics in the high mountains, it can depend on the wind, which can be rather strong and cause more problems for leading than you might think, especially when the differential between riders is pretty small. That is one of the reason that Armstrong had so many good riders to push the first part of the climbs and why they went out and got Heras.

If wind is the Schleck's concern, shouldn't Frank just get on the front and set a murderous tempo while Andy follows, a la Heras and Armstrong? Are they more concerned with getting both on the podium (second and third places) or winning the race (first and eight places)? Isn't the Yellow Jersey the ultimate goal? Do they really want to go into the time trial even with Cadel Evans?

[Conor Dary]

Tyler Ferrar, was weird after the stage last night, sounding pissed off and appearing to accuse Cavendish of hanging on to his team car to get up the mountains. Since there is little evidence it sounded a bit childish. I guess when you have 1 Tour win and MC has 19 you may get a bit envious.

[jazzcyclist]

Tyler Ferrar, was weird after the stage last night, sounding pissed off and appearing to accuse Cavendish of hanging on to his team car to get up the mountains. Since there is little evidence it sounded a bit childish. I guess when you have 1 Tour win and MC has 19 you may get a bit envious.

Right before he did the interview on Versus, you could hear Farrar say to Thor Hushovd, "He shouldn't even be in the fuckin' race." If Farrar wants to blame someone for his loss yesterday, he need look no further than Julian Dean, his own leadout man. What a shitty job he did. Dean never got out of the saddle. How can he expect to keep pace with Mark Renshaw without getting out of the saddle?

Here's a question, who's more arrogant and full of themselves, track and field sprinters, cycling sprinters or football wide receivers?

[Conor Dary]

Tyler Ferrar, was weird after the stage last night, sounding pissed off and appearing to accuse Cavendish of hanging on to his team car to get up the mountains. Since there is little evidence it sounded a bit childish. I guess when you have 1 Tour win and MC has 19 you may get a bit envious.

Right before he did the interview on Versus, you could hear Farrar say to Thor Hushovd, "He shouldn't even be in the fuckin' race." If Farrar wants to blame someone for his loss yesterday, he need look no further than Julian Dean, his own leadout man. What a shitty job he did. Dean never got out of the saddle. How can he expect to keep pace with Mark Renshaw without getting out of the saddle?

Here's a question, who's more arrogant and full of themselves, track and field sprinters, cycling sprinters or football wide receivers?

Correcto Jazz. As to your excellent question, I don't have an answer but, when you are on top like Cav and Bolt, you do have envious rivals, but I have never seen a sprinter have such childish response as TF did. As to TO's of the world, I think they just got hit one too many times.

[26mi235]

Tyler Ferrar, was weird after the stage last night, sounding pissed off and appearing to accuse Cavendish of hanging on to his team car to get up the mountains. Since there is little evidence it sounded a bit childish. I guess when you have 1 Tour win and MC has 19 you may get a bit envious.

Right before he did the interview on Versus, you could hear Farrar say to Thor Hushovd, "He shouldn't even be in the fuckin' race." If Farrar wants to blame someone for his loss yesterday, he need look no further than Julian Dean, his own leadout man. What a shitty job he did. Dean never got out of the saddle. How can he expect to keep pace with Mark Renshaw without getting out of the saddle?

Here's a question, who's more arrogant and full of themselves, track and field sprinters, cycling sprinters or football wide receivers?

I did not see if he was holding on to the team car to get through that stage - which he apparently barely made. If he was holding on it was a clear violation and it accounted for his surviving and being in the race, so the factual basis for his displeasure might be well founded.

As for Frank blocking for Andy -- that throws away one of your two guys and would be a mistake at this stage. Besides, Frank is looking to be on as good a form as Andy but has a little less of a jump than his brother.

I suspect that the Schlecks are even better time trial riders now then when Andy almost surprised Alberto last year and this year he is 2:30 ahead of where he was at the time. Contador's team is a little thin but has been used well (and not over-used - if they still had the big engine of Fabian Cancellara, of course it also left more budget for other riders). There are lots of cards to play in this one, including Thomas Voeckler. My maximum likelihood guess is Contador, but not by much.

[jazzcyclist]

I did not see if he was holding on to the team car to get through that stage - which he apparently barely made. If he was holding on it was a clear violation and it accounted for his surviving and being in the race, so the factual basis for his displeasure might be well founded.

It's hard for me to believe that if Cavendish was holding onto cars, there would be pictures and video of it on the internet already. How would Farrar know anyway since he obviously didn't see it himself?

As for Frank blocking for Andy -- that throws away one of your two guys and would be a mistake at this stage. Besides, Frank is looking to be on as good a form as Andy but has a little less of a jump than his brother.

It's a mistake if their priority is getting both of them on the podium, but not if their goal is to wear yellow in Paris. US Postal probably could have gotten Roberto Heras on the podium in 2002, but at what cost?

[jazzcyclist]

According to several cyclingnews.com readers, here's what Andy Schleck had to say on Danish TV after losing time on the admittedly treacherous descent into Gap:

Is this what people wanne see, a tour there is being decided on a downhill where people has to take chances, the riders have familys at home.

What a weenie!

[Conor Dary]

It's hard for me to believe that if Cavendish was holding onto cars, there would be pictures and video of it on the internet already. How would Farrar know anyway since he obviously didn't see it himself?

That is pretty much what the gang on Versus said, and I agree with it. Everyone knows who Cav is and smartphones being so ubiquitous there would be some evidence. Farrar is just jealous of the wonderful HTC leadout train.

[jazzcyclist]

According to several cyclingnews.com readers, here's what Andy Schleck had to say on Danish TV after losing time on the admittedly treacherous descent into Gap:

Is this what people wanne see, a tour there is being decided on a downhill where people has to take chances, the riders have familys at home.

What a weenie!

Here's how Reuters reported Schleck's post-race comments:

It was a dangerous finish. I was not feeling great when he attacked and I did a bad descent. People don't want a race that is decided in a downhill. We don't want crashes or thoughtless risks. We have families waiting for us at home. Do the public want a fair race or a race which ends in hospital?,

http://af.reuters.com/article/sportsNew ... sportsNews

I think Schleck needs to consider finding another line of work, since he obviously feels that pro bike racing is too dangerous.

[jeremyp]

Cadel Evans is now looking good for overall winner. Contador is too far back, Shleck faltered on a small climb and is being too cautious. But then tomorrow it may all look differently.

[Conor Dary]

I think Schleck needs to consider finding another line of work, since he obviously feels that pro bike racing is too dangerous.

Geez, jazz we are agreeing on everything here!

What a couple of days from the wimpo brigade. Farrar, goes ape because his leadout train sucks and Andy Schleck thinks going downhill is too dangerous and going uphill is too hard.

[jazzcyclist]

I think Schleck needs to consider finding another line of work, since he obviously feels that pro bike racing is too dangerous.

Geez, jazz we are agreeing on everything here!

What a couple of days from the wimpo brigade. Farrar, goes ape because his leadout train sucks and Andy Schleck thinks going downhill is too dangerous and going uphill is too hard.

Great minds think alike!

[26mi235]

As for Frank blocking for Andy -- that throws away one of your two guys and would be a mistake at this stage. Besides, Frank is looking to be on as good a form as Andy but has a little less of a jump than his brother.

It's a mistake if their priority is getting both of them on the podium, but not if their goal is to wear yellow in Paris. US Postal probably could have gotten Roberto Heras on the podium in 2002, but at what cost?

It is also a mistake if they think that there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy -- at this point I would say that probability looks higher than 'reasonable'.

Besides, there is the tactical advantage of them being able to play both cards -- they have to chase down both of them at this point.

As far as the racing goes, it will be hard to fully assess what will happen as some riders will be conservative in light of the hard days to come. Also, with Armstrong we got used to winners not having any bad days but in the current world, Andy could have a bad day (e.g., yesterday) but still be good overall. Thus, I would not count Andy out yet. [I also agree with Andy that some of the Tours have been unnecessarily dangerous, especially descents, and the one with the crash yesterday was the same place where Beloki crashed although a number of meters different.]

[jazzcyclist]

It is also a mistake if they think that there is a reasonable probability that Frank is going better than Andy -- at this point I would say that probability looks higher than 'reasonable'.

I don't understand what you're saying, perhaps you omitted a word or two. Do you think the peleton should be more concerned with Andy or Frank?

Besides, there is the tactical advantage of them being able to play both cards -- they have to chase down both of them at this point.

You're just repeating yourself. I've already acknowledged that there are advantages to this tactic of neither one playing the role of domestique. But I'm trying to point out to you that there are disadvantages also.

I also agree with Andy that some of the Tours have been unnecessarily dangerous, especially descents, and the one with the crash yesterday was the same place where Beloki crashed although a number of meters different.

I didn't see anyone crash at the same place the ended the career of Beloki, who actually crashed due to a rolled tire, he didn't misjudge or overcook a turn. Besides, if Andy hadn't been dropped on the climb, Evans and Contador would have had no reason to drop the hammer on the descent. And let's not forget that Andy got dropped by his own brother on yesterday's descent. Does he think Frank is some reckless daredevil also? Roger Goodell is already in the process of wussifying the NFL. We don't need the UCI to do the same thing to cycling.

[marknhj]

I almost choked on my cornflakes this morning when Paul Sherwen mentioned Bubka's WR in Sestierre and even got both his indoor and outdoor marks right!