as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues


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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Wed Sep 26, 2012 3:09 pm

shingles part of this discussion moved over to the geezer-shots thread, which was moving in that direction at the same time.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:26 am

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/ ... gh30m.html

Although much has been made of some Washington residents' reluctance to immunize their children, in fact, most parents are vaccinating their children against pertussis, acknowledged to be a bad bug. Of those children ages 3 months to 10 years who came down with pertussis, about 76 percent had received the recommended vaccines.


That's not 76% of parents are vaccinating against pertussis in WA, the % is much higher than that. That's 76% of kids with pertussis are fully up to date on their pertussis shots.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Daisy » Sun Sep 30, 2012 10:56 am

polevaultpower wrote:That's not 76% of parents are vaccinating against pertussis in WA, the % is much higher than that. That's 76% of kids with pertussis are fully up to date on their pertussis shots.

The key here is that there are unvaccinated kids that have a far greater chance of contrating the disease and spreading it. The whole point of vaccination is to reduce the chance of this. As you get fewer kids vaccinated then there will be a greater chance of an outbreak.

I have not been following this on the news. Just how large is the problem in Washington State? It's hard to judge from % figures.

Edit: I just read the article and it says 10 times higher number of cases than normal. Is this a cluster of cases? Possibly a more virulent strain?
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:46 pm

Vaccination rates in WA for pertussis are higher than they have ever been. The current vaccine is less effective than in the past. There are also reports that many doctors were storing it improperly.

Vaccinated kids who get pertussis are less sick than unvaccinated kids and sometimes it does not have the "whoop" sound to it. My hypothesis is that the vaccinated kids are the ones spreading it because they are less likely to stay home from school because the parents think they just have a cold, that it couldn't be whooping cough. I also strongly suspect that the number of cases is being under reported, that the mildest cases are not being treated/tested. I would have loved to see the CDC drop some $ to test everyone in hard hit areas who had cold symptoms.

I'm not anti-vaccine. My kid and my whole extended family are up to date on pertussis shots.

The outbreak is worse in some areas than others but it is a problem in almost every county in the state, and expected to get worse now that school has resumed, and the perpetual rain should return soon.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Daisy » Sun Sep 30, 2012 2:18 pm

polevaultpower wrote:The outbreak is worse in some areas than others but it is a problem in almost every county in the state

Sounds like an interesting example. I expect we'll be hearing a lot of different expert opinions on what is happening soon enough.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Pego » Sun Sep 30, 2012 5:35 pm

Daisy wrote:
polevaultpower wrote:The outbreak is worse in some areas than others but it is a problem in almost every county in the state

Sounds like an interesting example. I expect we'll be hearing a lot of different expert opinions on what is happening soon enough.


The eventual CDC summary should be most interesting.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Pego » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:25 am

There is a superb analysis of diphteria outbreaks in the 40's Europe in September/October issue of Skeptical Inquirer, unfortunately not available online. Highly recommended to everybody who has interest in the subject.

Oh yes, I witnessed a few cases of diphteria as a young physician. Not a pretty sight.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:10 am

tough one to spell too! :-)

harkening to your previous post about the CDC, I assume you've noticed that its website is essentially unusable while the morons in D.C. have their pissing match.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Daisy » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:01 pm

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/

Interestingly they decided to keep pubmed functional.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby mcgato » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:02 pm

I've been reading Nate Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise," which spends part of one chapter covering the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, the dire predictions, and some of the reasons that the predictions were way off. The book is all about predictions, some good but most bad, and why they are or are not accurate. Nate got famous by predicting the last two US presidential elections pretty much spot on. And he is a fellow UChicago alum.

It was a fairly interesting chapter that covered the prediction of diseases in general. With the flu vaccine, the health people have to predict which strains to put in the upcoming season's vaccine and that has to be done by about August in order to have vaccines available for the flu season. As far as predicting how serious the flu season will be, they have to predict how contagious the strains are going to be and how lethal they are going to be. But until flu season gets going, those are very difficult numbers to predict.

If memory serves (and its been a few weeks since reading it), they overpredicted the contagiousness of H1N1 based off of how contagious it was in 3rd world countries the previous season. But those areas are generally where people live much more densely and much closer to livestock, especially pigs and chickens which carry the virus. Also the lethality was based on relatively few cases in southeast Asia in the previous flu season. As the flu came to the US, the contagiousness was much lower and that season's strain was not as dangerous as the previous season.

He also discusses in that chapter and elsewhere in the book how the predictions of near certainty or predictions of global calamity tend to backfire more often than not. After the prediction fails to materialize, people are much less likely to believe the next prediction that those people make.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:25 pm

And why isn't this posted in the "what are you reading lately" thread?! :mrgreen:

Seriously, what's your take on the book as a whole?
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby mcgato » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:15 pm

gh wrote:Seriously, what's your take on the book as a whole?
Since I am a statistician by trade, most of what he covers about trying to predict things is what I do for a living. He isn't really going to teach me anything about statistics or statistical thinking in the book. That said, I am not really the target audience for the book. My sister got it for me for last Xmas, so I decided to read it. So my review for others follows.

I think that it is a well written book that covers a lot of basic statistical concepts in a very understandable way. He really doesn't get into any details of statistics, but he gets into good case studies of how the predictions were made and communicated, and how that affected a lot of things beyond the prediction. He covers:
--the housing bubble
--his attempts at predicting future success in baseball based on minor league information
--the success of the National Weather Service of doing a better job at prediction than in years past
--unsuccessful attempts at predicting earthquakes
--the aforementioned attempts at predicting disease propagation
--why loud and opinionated political pundits are usually the worst at predicting things
--his attempts at making a living playing poker
--why stock market analysts usually recommend that you buy a stock

There are a few chapters on how predictions can be improved moving forward. I think if someone is interested in some of these areas, it is a very interesting read. Worst case, you will have a better understanding of what the predictions that you read about in the news are really worth, if anything.

He has a very good chapter about global warming, addressing reasons why people are skeptical about the predictions coming out of that area. Note that I am a global warming skeptic, and I think that he gave a very balanced and interesting account of the subject.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby scottmitchell74 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:24 am

I read that book and found it very interesting. Some of the topics were outside my sphere of understanding, but overall he handled the topics incredibly well. I kept finding myself surprised at how young he is.

The chapter on gambling lets you know that unless you're literally willing to live and breath a particular sport 60+ hours a week and study it with a lack of emotion, sports betting probably isn't going to be your "thing." In fact, I think not caring for a sport would help because you'd eliminate much of the emotional attachments to players/teams.

The hurricane/weather chapter was eye-opening. We've come a long way, but to think we have even the slightest handle on Mother Nature is foolish.

I'd recommend the book.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:37 am

oh great…. the current version of whooping cough vaccine may be producing legions of Typhoid Marys….


http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/W ... 014562.php
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby jeremyp » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:46 pm

gh wrote:oh great…. the current version of whooping cough vaccine may be producing legions of Typhoid Marys….


http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/W ... 014562.php

Yes apparently the vaccination has many repertussions. :oops:
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:14 pm

people have been shot for less :mrgreen:
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:38 pm

polevaultpower wrote:Vaccinated kids who get pertussis are less sick than unvaccinated kids and sometimes it does not have the "whoop" sound to it. My hypothesis is that the vaccinated kids are the ones spreading it because they are less likely to stay home from school because the parents think they just have a cold, that it couldn't be whooping cough. I also strongly suspect that the number of cases is being under reported, that the mildest cases are not being treated/tested. I would have loved to see the CDC drop some $ to test everyone in hard hit areas who had cold symptoms.



I told you so...

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/W ... 014562.php

"The research suggests that while the vaccine may keep people from getting sick, it doesn't prevent them from spreading whooping cough - also known as pertussis - to others."

"But that may not work as well as hoped if infected people who don't show any symptoms can still spread it, the research suggests."


Unvaccinated kids are really not the primary problem here. Getting serious about stopping pertussis means getting serious about educating parents that their kid who appears to have a cold, may actually have pertussis, and needs to stay home from school. This is what I have been telling people for over a year now. I get branded as a crazy uneducated stupid nonvaxer (and I actually do vaccinate my kids on time for pertussis, but whatever), but I am also right. I looked at what scientific data is actually saying instead of reading media reports that quote "experts" who blame unvaccinated kids.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Pego » Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:04 am

polevaultpower wrote:
polevaultpower wrote:Vaccinated kids who get pertussis are less sick than unvaccinated kids and sometimes it does not have the "whoop" sound to it. My hypothesis is that the vaccinated kids are the ones spreading it because they are less likely to stay home from school because the parents think they just have a cold, that it couldn't be whooping cough. I also strongly suspect that the number of cases is being under reported, that the mildest cases are not being treated/tested. I would have loved to see the CDC drop some $ to test everyone in hard hit areas who had cold symptoms.



I told you so...

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/W ... 014562.php

"The research suggests that while the vaccine may keep people from getting sick, it doesn't prevent them from spreading whooping cough - also known as pertussis - to others."

"But that may not work as well as hoped if infected people who don't show any symptoms can still spread it, the research suggests."


Unvaccinated kids are really not the primary problem here. Getting serious about stopping pertussis means getting serious about educating parents that their kid who appears to have a cold, may actually have pertussis, and needs to stay home from school. This is what I have been telling people for over a year now. I get branded as a crazy uneducated stupid nonvaxer (and I actually do vaccinate my kids on time for pertussis, but whatever), but I am also right. I looked at what scientific data is actually saying instead of reading media reports that quote "experts" who blame unvaccinated kids.


Just this. Compare...

1. Rates of pertussis of pre- and post-vaccination era.
2. Rates of pertussis between countries that have compulsory vaccination vs voluntary.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Blues » Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:18 am

So it seems like the newer, safer acellular vaccine may allow an exposed individual who's received the vaccine to disseminate the bacteria to others for a longer period of time. That means that we have more work to do in developing a better, more effective vaccine, as well as in educating the public.

But the less than perfect pertussis vaccine still decreases the incidence of pertussis, and absolutely provides significant protection to those who've received the vaccine. A good vaccine that can drastically reduce the incidence of serious illness and deaths, even if not perfect, is still better than no vaccine. Hopefully there's an incentive in the pharmaceutical industry to try to produce a safe vaccine that both prevents serious effects of the disease in the recipient, as well as eliminates or decreases the ability of the recipient to disseminate the bacteria that he or she was exposed to. The nature of this particular infection (and in particular how the organisms are spread) is a factor here as well, and may make it a little harder to develop a more perfect vaccine.

And there's no doubt in my mind that the choice by parents not to vaccinate their children is compounding the matter and adding to the increasing incidence of this disease.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:26 am

I agree that the vaccine is better than no vaccine. The point is that up until now, parents who chose not to get it were vilified, with many people saying that CPS should be called on them, that they should be forced to vaccinate their children against their will, and that THEIR kids were THE cause of the problem. The reality is far more complex than that.

I don't think the 10% or whatever of kids who are not vaccinated for pertussis are THE primary problem, and I don't think vaccinating them would play a significant role in reducing the spread of the disease, I simply think it would reduce the number of kids with serious complications of the disease.

Vaccines are not the best choice for every child. Some kids have terrible reactions to them. If I had a family history of vaccine reactions I would be even more selective about which ones I gave my kids.

Kids who are really sick stay home and don't spread diseases. Kids who are mildly sick go to school and spread diseases.

In my state, in 2012, over 75% of the kids who were clinically diagnosed with pertussis were FULLY vaccinated, and that only reflects the kids who were sick enough to see a doctor and a doctor who was inclined to perform the test, the reality is that many vaccinated kids with pertussis never see a doctor because their symptoms don't warrant it, and many vaccinated kids who do see the doctor don't get tested for it because of their vaccination status and the lack of a "whoop" in their cough.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby bambam » Thu Nov 28, 2013 9:15 am

gh wrote:oh great…. the current version of whooping cough vaccine may be producing legions of Typhoid Marys….


Do we not have a policy on this board not to make derogatory statements about the poster's family members?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoid_Mary

My grandfather's great aunt, from genealogy research my Dad did about 15 years ago.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Blues » Thu Nov 28, 2013 10:26 am

polevaultpower wrote:I agree that the vaccine is better than no vaccine. The point is that up until now, parents who chose not to get it were vilified, with many people saying that CPS should be called on them, that they should be forced to vaccinate their children against their will, and that THEIR kids were THE cause of the problem. The reality is far more complex than that.

I don't think the 10% or whatever of kids who are not vaccinated for pertussis are THE primary problem, and I don't think vaccinating them would play a significant role in reducing the spread of the disease, I simply think it would reduce the number of kids with serious complications of the disease.

Vaccines are not the best choice for every child. Some kids have terrible reactions to them. If I had a family history of vaccine reactions I would be even more selective about which ones I gave my kids.

Kids who are really sick stay home and don't spread diseases. Kids who are mildly sick go to school and spread diseases.

In my state, in 2012, over 75% of the kids who were clinically diagnosed with pertussis were FULLY vaccinated, and that only reflects the kids who were sick enough to see a doctor and a doctor who was inclined to perform the test, the reality is that many vaccinated kids with pertussis never see a doctor because their symptoms don't warrant it, and many vaccinated kids who do see the doctor don't get tested for it because of their vaccination status and the lack of a "whoop" in their cough.


Understood, but according to at least one recent American study I saw, areas of highest infection incidence seem to coincide with areas of highest vaccine avoidance. If I'm a parent who truly cares about the wellbeing of my child, my child is getting the pertussis vaccine, even if it's not perfect. For me at least, it's much more beneficial if there's a massive decrease in the risk of my child and others dying or developing serious complications from the disease. Being mildly sick seems a lot better than dying to me even if there's still a chance for the mildly sick patient to disseminate the disease, but different strokes for different folks.

If and when the post-vaccine incidence and mortality statistics approach those of the pre-vaccine era, I'll probably reconsider. Hopefully though, a future more effective vaccine will significantly shorten the period during which the infection can be spread from a vaccinated individual (who may not be clinically sick or who may only be mildly sick), to another.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby tandfman » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:03 am

The toll of the anti-vaccination movement, in one devastating graphic:

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik ... z2r9Gmv57V
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:23 am

ugh

meanwhile, N1H1 is back in the Bay Area and is the biggest cause of the 29 flu-related deaths during the current season. Interestingly, this one isn't being too nasty on us old fogies, apparently because it's related to a strain that likely hit us when we were kids, so there's some longstanding immunity in play. But it's beating up on young adults and kids.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby bambam » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:29 am

gh wrote:ugh

meanwhile, N1H1 is back in the Bay Area and is the biggest cause of the 29 flu-related deaths during the current season. Interestingly, this one isn't being too nasty on us old fogies, apparently because it's related to a strain that likely hit us when we were kids, so there's some longstanding immunity in play. But it's beating up on young adults and kids.


Mixing threads, if you wanna read some fascinating books, there are a couple popular books available from about 2005-2008 on the 1918 influenza pandemic. One by Gina Kolata and one by John Barry, but do not remember their names. A lot in there about how and why it killed almost 50 million people.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Marlow » Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:00 pm

tandfman wrote:The toll of the anti-vaccination movement

So why are people playing the LOSING odds?
Yes, the vaccination can do bad things, but the likelihood of bad (or worse!) things happening are INCREASED by NOT getting the vaccination.
Why are people being poor gamblers with their and their CHILD'S health??!! :evil:
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:23 pm

I don't in a quick search find that the story is available for free.

How Americans Are Living Dangerously

We worry too much about overhyped threats, and ignore the things that really put us at risk

By Jeffrey Kluger Sunday, Nov. 26, 2006


Read more: How Americans Are Living Dangerously - TIME http://content.time.com/time/magazine/a ... z2rFsdjsvW
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:18 pm

mcgato wrote:
gh wrote:Seriously, what's your take on the book as a whole?
Since I am a statistician by trade, most of what he covers about trying to predict things is what I do for a living.


I am an economist doing statistical stuff and I have a similar take as mcgato. For me, there is not a lot of new stuff, although there are new 'facts' and particulars.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Tue Apr 01, 2014 11:15 am

editorial in SF Chron today, regards spiking number of cases in vaccinatable diseases among California kids

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/P ... 365220.php
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:08 pm

gh wrote:editorial in SF Chron today, regards spiking number of cases in vaccinatable diseases among California kids

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/P ... 365220.php


Poorly written, and vague as most of these things are. There are over a dozen vaccines for dozens of diseases. I really hate it when they all get lumped together, as if every vaccination is the same, as if every disease is the same.

The number of California children who entered kindergarten this year without vaccinations is way up


Without _any_ vaccinations, without the required vaccinations, or without the CDC recommended vaccine schedule? I clicked the link and it didn't pull up whatever it was supposed to.

IMO there is a difference between parents who choose NO vaccinations whatsoever with parents who selectively delay or decline some vaccinations.

Lots of parents prefer their kids get chicken pox naturally, to build a better immunity than you get from the vaccine. Lots of parents choose to delay giving their kid the hepatitis B vaccine, feeling that it is unnecessary to vaccinate a newborn for what is essentially an STD.

Since the article specifically references MEASLES, it would be far more informative to give a statistic on how many kids entering kindergarten have not yet had their MMR. I guarantee the vaccination rate is much higher for measles than it is for chicken pox.

Medical experts are pointing to waning vaccination rates as a major cause of the upsetting comeback of ancient illnesses.


This article would have more credibility if they actually named the "ancient illnesses". The article only mentions measles. What other "ancient illnesses" are actually increasing? What makes an illness ancient? When I think of ancient I think of the bubonic plague, which we don't vaccinate for. Maybe smallpox? Oh what we don't vaccinate for that either.

when studies on thousands of children have shown that vaccines are safe, needed, and most certainly not the cause of autism.


Again, which vaccines are you referring to? Some vaccines are extremely new. They're all "safe" until they're not.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby polevaultpower » Tue Apr 01, 2014 2:09 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotavirus_vaccine

In 1998, a rotavirus vaccine (RotaShield, by Wyeth) was licensed for use in the United States. Clinical trials in the United States, Finland, and Venezuela had found it to be 80 to 100% effective at preventing severe diarrhea caused by rotavirus A, and researchers had detected no statistically significant serious adverse effects. The manufacturer of the vaccine, however, withdrew it from the market in 1999, after it was discovered that the vaccine may have contributed to an increased risk for intussusception, or bowel obstruction, in one of every 12,000 vaccinated infants.


New versions of the vaccine were reintroduced in 2006. I personally chose not to give this vaccine to my now 1yo daughter. The risks of her skipping the vaccine? Diarrhea. Which would suck. But since we live in a developed country with great access to health care, it is very unlikely to become a serious problem for her. In a third world country, a vaccine that can save thousands of lives a year. In the US, less dramatic results.


Am I paranoid about all vaccines? No. We'll get the MMR at her 1yo appointment in a few days. My point is simply that "safe" is a relative term, and some vaccines are relatively new. I think when I was a kid, 30 years ago, you got the MMR, TDP and Polio vaccines. Now they also want kids to get Hib, Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B, Chicken Pox and Rotavirus vaccines by like age 1, and HPV by age... IDK 9? Oh yes and don't forget flu shots every year. I'm probably missing a few.

It's a lot of things to inject in a kid's body. I choose to research them individually and make my own decisions based on the safety record of the vaccine and the risk of the disease itself.

I think blindly rejecting all vaccines is worse than blindly accepting them all. But I don't think public shaming is going to help the situation, it simply galvanizes the non-vaxers and makes them LESS likely to vaccinate. When the people arguing FOR vaccines make generic vague arguments that lump all vaccines together, it doesn't persuade anyone to go get vaccinated.

Here's a crazy idea... if you have a problem with measles, convince people to get vaccinated for measles. Even crazier idea, many parents who DO decline the MMR, do it on the principle of not wanting to do combined vaccinations. If a measles-only vaccine were available, the vaccination rates would increase.

Telling people to "trust us, we're the government and we know what is best for your kids" is not an effective strategy.

The other problem is that measles sounds scary, but with modern medicine, is generally not a serious disease. That doesn't mean I want my kids to get it, and I understand it is very contagious, so you certainly don't want an epidemic. But most of the non-vaxers simply believe that if their kids get measles, it won't be a big deal.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Marlow » Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:07 pm

polevaultpower wrote: Lots of parents prefer their kids get chicken pox naturally, to build a better immunity than you get from the vaccine. Lots of parents choose to delay giving their kid the hepatitis B vaccine, feeling that it is unnecessary to vaccinate a newborn for what is essentially an STD.

I'm glad you're being a careful parent, but do you have peer-reviewed medical studies to corroborate the idea that the risks are LOWER with NOT being vaccinated? Every study I've read about (albeit far from exhaustive), says there ARE risks with vaccinations, but the risks are GREATER without the vaccinations (covering a broad spectrum of diseases).
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:46 pm

polevaultpower wrote:…..
The other problem is that measles sounds scary, but with modern medicine, is generally not a serious disease. That doesn't mean I want my kids to get it, and I understand it is very contagious, so you certainly don't want an epidemic. But most of the non-vaxers simply believe that if their kids get measles, it won't be a big deal.


There are those who would disagree with you

http://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/blogs/ojohn/how ... us-measles
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:48 pm

or see what the CDC has to say, in part:

<<What is measles?

Measles is a serious respiratory disease caused by a virus. It spreads easily through coughing and sneezing. In rare cases, it can be deadly. ….

How serious is measles?

Measles can be dangerous, especially for babies and young children. In the United States in 2011, 38% of children younger than 5 years old who had measles had to be treated in the hospital.

For some children, measles can lead to pneumonia, a serious lung infection. It can also cause lifelong brain damage, deafness, and even death. One to three out of 1,000 children in the U.S. who get measles will die from the disease, even with the best care. About 150,000 to 175,000 people die from measles each year around the world—mostly in places where children do not get the measles vaccine….>>
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby bad hammy » Tue Apr 01, 2014 6:15 pm

polevaultpower wrote:
gh wrote:editorial in SF Chron today, regards spiking number of cases in vaccinatable diseases among California kids

Lots of parents prefer their kids get (any standard preventable childhood disease of your choice) naturally, to build a better immunity than you get from the vaccine.

Uh, just how much better? Unless we are talking a significant and verifiable-by-non-snake-oil-sales-folks amount the anti-vaccine stance sounds more like child cruelty to me . . .
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby JumboElliott » Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:42 pm

Interesting and (sort of) related. Scientists think that the black plague was not in fact bubonic plague.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... zuHD1cvkpc
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Pego » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:59 am

JumboElliott wrote:Interesting and (sort of) related. Scientists think that the black plague was not in fact bubonic plague.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... zuHD1cvkpc


Since that book was published, quite a few corpses from the time of Black Death were exhumed and Yersinia pestis DNA was identified from quite a few of them. There is hardly any doubt that Yersin was correct and the Black Death was caused by bubonic/pulmonary plague.
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby gh » Wed Apr 02, 2014 5:56 am

it'll always be P. Pestis (Pasteurella) to me!
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby tandfman » Wed Apr 02, 2014 8:26 am

gh wrote:editorial in SF Chron today, regards spiking number of cases in vaccinatable diseases among California kids

http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/P ... 365220.php

It seems to be a problem on both coasts right now:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/mea ... -1.1742983
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Re: as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

Postby Pego » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:05 pm

Not to vaccinate children against measles is nuts. Plain and simple. I saw plenty of it as a young physician. Most of them make it through without major problems, but quite a few do not. It is a nasty disease and since it is viral, only symptomatic treatment is available.
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