Brave New World is here


A place for the discussion of all things not closely related to the sport and its competitive side. (as always, locked for the duration of major international championship)

Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Daisy » Thu Jul 24, 2008 2:56 pm

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:So why would athletes switch?

Bio-engineering suggests more specific, more targeted 'goals'. Chemicals seem more random. If your goal is to increase muscle mass, I would think (but you're the scientist, not I) that one could do something more tailored to the desired goal by messing with specific genes.


Not only can chemicals be specific they can also be titrated to the correct dose. Genetic engineering is far harder to manipulate and more likely to fail. To get the optimal level of extra gene expression is luck rather than controlable and is as likely to be too low or too high than just right. You are more likely to make a detrimental mutations than to get the desired change.

Marlow wrote:Genetic manipulation IS going to happen (it's already started on a rudimentary level), and yes, there's going to be mistakes along the way, but sooner or later (my WAG is in 25 years) medicine will begin 'curing' people by manipulating their genes, not just dosing them with meds. When that happens, athletes will be right there in line for 'treatment'. It is inevitable.


They might be in line for treatment but they will not get the benefits you claim. The chemists will win over the athletes with superior results and undetectable small molecules.
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:30 pm

Daisy wrote:They might be in line for treatment but they will not get the benefits you claim. The chemists will win over the athletes with superior results and undetectable small molecules.

Ima gonna hafta take your word for it, cuz I am seriously overmatched in the scientific department, Dr. Daisy!!
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Postby Mennisco » Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:16 pm

"In addition, the sensationalized story was on MSNBC, but it’s really an AP story. If you are mad about the AP story, you should be angry at the writer/editor of the story, and not “western” media. Always differentiate who really is responsible, unless you want to fall into the same trap the first article did by blaming China for the actions of one man."

http://blog.foolsmountain.com/2008/07/2 ... o-athletes

“It is very scary that health professionals should have such a lack of ethics and try what we know to be experimental on human beings for a vast amount of money,”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/ ... 375097.ece

"Patrick Diel, a gene therapy expert at the Deutsche Sporthochschule in Cologne and WADA officer, expressed astonishment that such performance enhancements were so readily available. “I find this shocking,” Diel said. “It carries enormous health risks. Quite frankly, this surpasses my worst fears.” Diel and other German experts also said there was no evidence that stem-cell injections would work as a doping treatment." [so why is he attributed with calling them performance enhancements?]

http://olympics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ ... for-24000/

"The film provides evidence that drug companies are willing to flout Government orders to 'keep China doping-free before the Games' by selling steroids that never passed full clinical and pharmaceutical trials and EPO at prices that undercut western competition by a massive margin: in the case of one steroid, 100g was sold for 150 euros when the price in Europe would have been more than 6,000 euros, according to experts."

http://www.swimnews.com/News/displaySto ... et&id=6224

Download the actual documentary, in German:

http://www.dokfilm.de/cms/frontend/port ... 1&page=137
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby mikli » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:49 am

Daisy wrote:Not only can chemicals be specific they can also be titrated to the correct dose. Genetic engineering is far harder to manipulate and more likely to fail. To get the optimal level of extra gene expression is luck rather than controlable and is as likely to be too low or too high than just right. You are more likely to make a detrimental mutations than to get the desired change.

As of today, likely to change "slightly" during this millenium.
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Postby Marlow » Tue Nov 18, 2008 5:03 am

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Postby Daisy » Tue Nov 18, 2008 4:36 pm

Marlow wrote:uh oh . . .


Which bit are you referring to? All I see is that athletes want to use it. Nowhere in the article does it say it will work.

I'm sure the athletes want to use a star trek like teleporter to save having to use commerical flights. It does not mean it can be done.
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Postby Marlow » Tue Nov 18, 2008 6:35 pm

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:uh oh . . .


Which bit are you referring to? All I see is that athletes want to use it. Nowhere in the article does it say it will work.

I'm sure the athletes want to use a star trek like teleporter to save having to use commerical flights. It does not mean it can be done.

Daisy - even though you know 14,000 times as much as I do about this stuff, I still think you GROSSLY underestimate the time it will take to get genetic engineering out of the lab and into people's bodies, in a way that can enhance their 'natural gifts'. Sure there will be dangers, but since when has that ever stopped someone from trying?
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Postby Daisy » Tue Nov 18, 2008 10:59 pm

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:uh oh . . .


Which bit are you referring to? All I see is that athletes want to use it. Nowhere in the article does it say it will work.

I'm sure the athletes want to use a star trek like teleporter to save having to use commerical flights. It does not mean it can be done.

Daisy - even though you know 14,000 times as much as I do about this stuff, I still think you GROSSLY underestimate the time it will take to get genetic engineering out of the lab and into people's bodies, in a way that can enhance their 'natural gifts'. Sure there will be dangers, but since when has that ever stopped someone from trying?


I don't underestimate the time in which it can be done. It will be done. What i question is whether the result will be an elite athlete. For every lab rat successfully engineered there are hundreds of failures.
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Postby tandfman » Tue Nov 18, 2008 11:46 pm

Daisy wrote:What i question is whether the result will be an elite athlete. For every lab rat successfully engineered there are hundreds of failures.

So what? For every medal winner, there are thousands of non-medal winners.
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Postby Daisy » Wed Nov 19, 2008 12:29 am

tandfman wrote:
Daisy wrote:What i question is whether the result will be an elite athlete. For every lab rat successfully engineered there are hundreds of failures.

So what? For every medal winner, there are thousands of non-medal winners.


Why risk a 1/100 or worse shot at success rather than use the real gains from chemicals?

My position has always been that the gains from chemicals are more effective and harder to detect.
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Postby tandfman » Wed Nov 19, 2008 4:14 am

Harder to detect than gene manipulation? I don't know about that.
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Postby Daisy » Wed Nov 19, 2008 7:56 am

tandfman wrote:Harder to detect than gene manipulation? I don't know about that.


The evidence of gene manipulation is always going to be present in your cells. For chemicals you only get caught if you have them in your system. Assuming they can even be detected or distinguished from the bodies own versions.
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Postby Marlow » Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:05 am

Daisy wrote:
tandfman wrote:Harder to detect than gene manipulation? I don't know about that.

The evidence of gene manipulation is always going to be present in your cells.


If ANY kind of genetic manipulation is 'easily' detected, then I feel better. I just don't 'trust' geneticists to NOT figure out a way to alter the gene structure to benefit a greater musculature WITHOUT detection.
Botanists - nice, kind, friendly flower people, with cute little nicknames like . . . oh . . . I don't know . . .Daisy.
Geneticists - evil, nefarious, moohahahaha mad scientists, with nicknames like Igor or Viktor
8-)
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Postby tandfman » Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:17 am

Daisy wrote:
tandfman wrote:Harder to detect than gene manipulation? I don't know about that.

The evidence of gene manipulation is always going to be present in your cells. For chemicals you only get caught if you have them in your system.

Sorry, I'm not a scientist. I realize that the altered gene will always be in your system, but are you saying that there will always be evidence that it has been altered? If so, I'm glad to hear that.
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Postby Daisy » Wed Nov 19, 2008 12:29 pm

tandfman wrote:are you saying that there will always be evidence that it has been altered?


In short, yes.
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Postby 26mi235 » Wed Nov 19, 2008 1:47 pm

For those thinking this is around the corner, the experiments that have occurred to date have had to be canceled when one of the subjects died. This type of thing will be a bit risky, as well as likely being illegal. The talented guys will likely not want to take a chance doing this stuff and losing their license and funding. These guys make a lot of money and it will NOT be a big incentive to cheat here. It is my impression (Daisy?) that the gene stuff will be easier to do when it is putting in the thing that is supposed to be there rather than altering something that is right so that it will be 'better'.
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Postby Daisy » Thu Nov 20, 2008 8:47 am

26mi235 wrote:It is my impression that the gene stuff will be easier to do when it is putting in the thing that is supposed to be there rather than altering something that is right so that it will be 'better'.


Exactly, it is hard to overide the bodies homeostatic control mechanisms and when we do we often end up with undesirable (and unpredicatable) outcomes. These gene replacement technologies are usually developed with the goal of repairing natural problems (mutations) that are pushing the system into a disease state. Cystic fibrosis is probably the best example. If a functional cystic fibrosis gene can be incorporated into cells that need its function it pushes the cells back to a normal situation. In contrast athlete who want to use gene doping are looking to push their body and cells away from a normal state.

An example of pushing cells away from a normal state is seen with telomeres (the DNA sequence at the ends of chromosomes) and the hopes of manipulating their length to increase longevity. Every time a cell divides the teleomeres get shorter and it has been observed that people who age prematurely have shorter telomeres. Heart disease and other aging related diseases are also related to shorter telomeres. Logic dictates that keeping them longer will improve our condition with respect to aging.

There is an enzyme called telomerase that can increase the length of telomeres. In fact, this is important for producing sperm and eggs that have longer telomeres. If this enzyme did not exist our chromosomes would get smaller each generation leading to our extinction as a species. Some saw telomerase as having a fountain of youth potential but when it is over expressed, thus giving us longer telomeres and combating the aging process, it also was found to cause cancer.
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Postby Marlow » Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:50 am

Daisy wrote:Some saw telomerase as having a fountain of youth potential but when it is over expressed, thus giving us longer telomeres and combating the aging process, it also was found to cause cancer.

Details, details, details. Known cycle of cutting-edge medicine.

1. Invent cool new therapy that 'fixes' something.
2. Find that #1 causes side effects just as bad or worse that original ailment.
3. Invent cool new thing that fixes side effect.
4. Repeat #2.
5. Repeat #3
6. repeat ad infinitum

Added benefit: each new step increases medical industry revenue.
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Postby Daisy » Thu Nov 20, 2008 11:52 am

Marlow wrote:1. Invent cool new therapy that 'fixes' something.
2. Find that #1 causes side effects just as bad or worse that original ailment.
3. Invent cool new thing that fixes side effect.
4. Repeat #2.
5. Repeat #3
6. repeat ad infinitum


Sounds like a Heath Robinson approach to medicine.
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Postby Pego » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:58 pm

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:1. Invent cool new therapy that 'fixes' something.
2. Find that #1 causes side effects just as bad or worse that original ailment.
3. Invent cool new thing that fixes side effect.
4. Repeat #2.
5. Repeat #3
6. repeat ad infinitum


Sounds like a Heath Robinson approach to medicine.


Marlow, this whole thing reminds me of sci-fi movies, where people continue to function inside an active volcanos, cars running over flowing lava, light sabers, Bond having a car that just becomes completely invisible etc.
While being fun to watch and talk about, it is impossible to achieve.
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Postby Marlow » Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:37 pm

If gene-doping is so sci-fi why is WADA spending time and effort in ways to detect it. This statement from front page:

May explained that through gene doping an athlete could manipulate the body to grow bigger muscles or help them develop at a faster rate.

"We don't think it's quite in place but we don't think we can wait for it to occur," he said.
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Postby Daisy » Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:44 pm

Marlow wrote:If gene-doping is so sci-fi why is WADA spending time and effort in ways to detect it.


WADA's ignorance (or bluster) and easy money for the experts. WADA's throwing around $8 million a year and the experts get lots of publicity too. You think they are going to turn it down or tell WADA to spend it on something else?
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Postby Marlow » Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:42 pm

Based on my understanding of the human animal, its deceit, greed, and imagination, I'm going on record that we WILL have a proven case of successful athletic genetic engineering in the next 15 years. Apropos of nothing, there will also be a successful human clone created in the same time frame, ethics laws notwithstanding.
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Postby eldrick » Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:02 pm

iirc last published wada accounts had a paltry ~$40m/y income

1/4 went to dick poundses

1/4 went to rent

...

you get picture - bugger all for testing & what's left for research probably boils down to bugger's goat
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Postby Daisy » Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:39 pm

eldrick wrote:you get picture - bugger all for testing


The $8 million was quoted from the article. Surely better spent on more traditional testing.

I'll take the bet Marlow.
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Postby tandfman » Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:02 am

Marlow wrote:Based on my understanding of the human animal, its deceit, greed, and imagination, I'm going on record that we WILL have a proven case of successful athletic genetic engineering in the next 15 years.

If you are right, and I have no reason to doubt that you are, then someone should be doing something about it now. WADA is probably the only organization in the world that is in a position to at least try. I wouldn't discourage them.
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Postby Marlow » Sat Jan 17, 2009 4:58 pm

tandfman wrote:
Marlow wrote:Based on my understanding of the human animal, its deceit, greed, and imagination, I'm going on record that we WILL have a proven case of successful athletic genetic engineering in the next 15 years.

If you are right, and I have no reason to doubt that you are, then someone should be doing something about it now. WADA is probably the only organization in the world that is in a position to at least try. I wouldn't discourage them.

Yes, but I'm just a silly paranoid layman. The scientists and doctors among us say it ain't gonna happen . . . ever. :roll:
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Postby Daisy » Sat Jan 17, 2009 7:25 pm

Marlow wrote:The scientists and doctors among us say it ain't gonna happen . . . ever. :roll:


Why would it in a track and field sense? There are plenty of cheap, effective and practically undetectable drugs out there that do a better job.
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 30, 2012 5:46 pm

Marlow wrote:Genetic manipulation IS going to happen (it's already started on a rudimentary level), and yes, there's going to be mistakes along the way, but sooner or later (my WAG is in 25 years) medicine will begin 'curing' people by manipulating their genes, not just dosing them with meds. When that happens, athletes will be right there in line for 'treatment'. It is inevitable.

Oh dear, someone agrees with me . . . http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/20 ... ble-.html/
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Pego » Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:03 am

the article wrote:How fast will man eventually run? Will he ever run the 100 meters in five seconds flat?
"Not impossible," says one of the world's best known authorities on physiology and biomechanics. Professor Peter Weyand


With all due respect to the esteemed professor, this is utter nonsense.
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby tandfman » Mon Oct 01, 2012 5:44 am

Pego wrote:
the article wrote:How fast will man eventually run? Will he ever run the 100 meters in five seconds flat?
"Not impossible," says one of the world's best known authorities on physiology and biomechanics. Professor Peter Weyand

With all due respect to the esteemed professor, this is utter nonsense.

Yup!
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:02 am

tandfman wrote:
Pego wrote:
the article wrote:How fast will man eventually run? Will he ever run the 100 meters in five seconds flat?
"Not impossible," says one of the world's best known authorities on physiology and biomechanics. Professor Peter Weyand

With all due respect to the esteemed professor, this is utter nonsense.

Yup!

The learning curve on genetic manipulation is on the steepest rise it's ever been. It is so unreasonable to project a mere 500, 1000, 2000 years in the future and see where we'll be then? Are we not almost now at the point when science can change the body's physiology? Extrapolate! :D
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby tandfman » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:23 am

Marlow wrote:The learning curve on genetic manipulation is on the steepest rise it's ever been. It is so unreasonable to project a mere 500, 1000, 2000 years in the future and see where we'll be then? Are we not almost now at the point when science can change the body's physiology? Extrapolate! :D

Yes, but if I also extrapolate the political and economic developments of the last decade, I can as easily envision a barren planet devoid of human life, or one in which life resembles what it was in the Dark Ages, as I can a guy running the 100 in 5 seconds. :(
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:27 am

tandfman wrote:
Marlow wrote:The learning curve on genetic manipulation is on the steepest rise it's ever been. It is so unreasonable to project a mere 500, 1000, 2000 years in the future and see where we'll be then? Are we not almost now at the point when science can change the body's physiology? Extrapolate! :D

Yes, but if I also extrapolate the political and economic developments of the last decade, I can as easily envision a barren planet devoid of human life, or one in which life resembles what it was in the Dark Ages, as I can a guy running the 100 in 5 seconds. :(

Indeed, and in a parallel universe that WILL happen! [see multiverse discussion] :D
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby lonewolf » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:47 am

Friend Marlow, I suspect that if you introduce into your spiel the notion that man will run 100m in 5 seconds, you will instantly lose credibiity.. stick to the nano-babble. :)
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 6:54 am

lonewolf wrote:Friend Marlow, I suspect that if you introduce into your spiel the notion that man will run 100m in 5 seconds, you will instantly lose credibiity.. stick to the nano-babble.

Are they not part and parcel of the same Brave New World of mine? :P
An Emily Dickinson poem is apropos here:

Much Madness is divinest Sense -
To a discerning Eye -
Much Sense - the starkest Madness -
’Tis the Majority
In this, as all, prevail -
Assent - and you are sane -
Demur - you’re straightway dangerous -
And handled with a Chain -

8-)
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Pego » Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:01 am

Marlow wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Friend Marlow, I suspect that if you introduce into your spiel the notion that man will run 100m in 5 seconds, you will instantly lose credibiity.. stick to the nano-babble.

Are they not part and parcel of the same Brave New World of mine? :P
An Emily Dickinson poem is apropos here:

Much Madness is divinest Sense -
To a discerning Eye -
Much Sense - the starkest Madness -
’Tis the Majority
In this, as all, prevail -
Assent - and you are sane -
Demur - you’re straightway dangerous -
And handled with a Chain -

8-)


You are lucky. Lonewolf, tandfman and I still love you.
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Daisy » Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:33 am

Pego wrote:
the article wrote:How fast will man eventually run? Will he ever run the 100 meters in five seconds flat?
"Not impossible," says one of the world's best known authorities on physiology and biomechanics. Professor Peter Weyand

With all due respect to the esteemed professor, this is utter nonsense.

But it's great publicity for his research. It seems that no one gets burned for ludicrous comments anymore.
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:03 am

Pego wrote:You are lucky. Lonewolf, tandfman and I still love you.


"So I got that goin' for me, which is nice." - Carl Spackler (and me)

:D
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Re: Brave New World is here

Postby jhc68 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:15 pm

Nevermind all this hypothetical 5 second 100m crap. From the LA Times today:
Researchers in Japan say they used mouse stem cells to create eggs and sperm, producing healthy offspring.

HOLY BUCKETS... this is legit Brave New World stuff.
We are just a generation or two away from producing hybridized sprinters who really can run 5 second 100 meters.
That is, barring the economic and social collapse of the civilized world which seems ever more imminent.
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