Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?


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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:54 am

Marlow wrote:The scientific community, in just the last year or so, has overwhelmingly come to the conclusion that man-made pollutants are indeed 'contributing' to Global Warming (which most definitely is happening), so the only remaining question is (and it is a legitimate question), how much? My opinion is that 'any' is too much, though I do acknowledge the necessity of industrialization in this modern world. :D


If you believe that and if you really believe that "any" really is too much then you cant possibly think industrialization is necessary. Rather you should think it is to be stopped and reversed.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:08 am

It's all due to an increase in humans, doing what humans do: Flatulence. If we corked up those who eat cabbage and beans (you know who you are) we'd have fewer forest fires and hurricanes. I checked with my kitten and he gave me paws up on this one.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Wed Sep 04, 2013 11:32 am

Apparently, we are not all reading the same "scientific" articles and/or observing the cyclical nature of climate worldwide since long before there were humans on the planet..

I don't know how human's came to occupy this planet but I believe we are entitled to use its resources. Does anyone seriously think we could or would be willing to undo technical/industrial progress? Or, you may consider it regression if you prefer a Stone Age lifestyle. :)

Happily, we are all free to choose. I choose to live in what others may call blissfully ignorant comfort rather than fretting about what I consider unwarranted concern over man's puny trangressions upon nature.

This is one of those unresolvable impasses. Go in peace.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby kuha » Wed Sep 04, 2013 12:14 pm

All of that sounds more theological to me than scientific.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:00 pm

lonewolf wrote:Go in peace.

to love and (pre)serve the earth . . . :D
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:35 pm

Step 1: No one with any sense denies that the atmosphere has more CO2 now than 30, and 50, and 100 years ago and that the reason is human activity. That is not a fact in dispute by anyone with any credibility and every strong advocate that there is not systematic human-caused climate change has disassociated themselves from those that have.

Step 2: the link between the chemical changes in the atmosphere and climate is basically very strong, but the dimension and timing is more uncertain, and this is the point where people more reasonably can different, although I think that the evidence and theory is pretty decent about it not being too delayed.

Step 3: What are the consequences of higher CO2 and warmer temps. I have a paper in Nature more than 20 years ago the estimated the impacts on the US agricultural sector; there are winners and losers in that domain because CO2 acts to make plants grow more quickly and warmer temps help in more extreme (40++ deg N and S, mainly northern because there is not much at the southern extreme) latitudes. Where you can irrigate you are likely a winner. Other primary effects are more problematic; having more shoreline in currently inland areas might help a few, but low-lying areas will eventually have big problems.

Even more scope for disagreement at this stage.

Step 4: What to do about it, and are the costs of doing things greater than the effects of Climate Change. Part of the issue is that some gain with some sets of policies (looking at funding for positions, energy firms feel that they are better off not doing anything, which is not too surprising)

Even more room for disagreement on this step.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:31 pm

26mi235 wrote:Step 1: No one with any sense denies that the atmosphere has more CO2 now than 30, and 50, and 100 years ago and that the reason is human activity. That is not a fact in dispute by anyone with any credibility and every strong advocate that there is not systematic human-caused climate change has disassociated themselves from those that have.
.


Step 1, I dont know what you just said there.

26mi235 wrote:Step 4: What to do about it, and are the costs of doing things greater than the effects of Climate Change. Part of the issue is that some gain with some sets of policies (looking at funding for positions, energy firms feel that they are better off not doing anything, which is not too surprising)
Even more room for disagreement on this step.


Ill even disagree that energy firms (flush with more cash than most nations) can not profit regardless of the political climate. They will merrily "go-green" and work the carbon credit hustle to bigger profits as they stuff cash in politicians pockets of every persuasion.

The end result will be that energy companies get fabulously wealthy, politicians get fabulously wealthy and the average joe pays more in taxes and fuel and has the honor of getting the warm and fuzzy feeling that he is saving the planet. It is a win win for everyone.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:52 pm

user4 wrote:If you believe that and if you really believe that "any" really is too much then you cant possibly think industrialization is necessary. Rather you should think it is to be stopped and reversed.

Logic error.
Like lonewolf, I believe that the earth can sustain a certain amount of industrialization and flourish. It's like peeing in a really big pool. If one person does it, no one's the wiser or worse off. If everyone does it, then you have a real problem. Right now there is just too much pee in the pool.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:00 pm

Marlow wrote:
user4 wrote:If you believe that and if you really believe that "any" really is too much then you cant possibly think industrialization is necessary. Rather you should think it is to be stopped and reversed.

Logic error.
Like lonewolf, I believe that the earth can sustain a certain amount of industrialization and flourish. It's like peeing in a really big pool. If one person does it, no one's the wiser or worse off. If everyone does it, then you have a real problem. Right now there is just too much pee in the pool.


That was not what you said, you said:
Marlow wrote: My opinion is that 'any' is too much, though I do acknowledge the necessity of industrialization in this modern world. :D


Those two clauses, statements contradict each other.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:54 pm

user4 wrote:
Marlow wrote: My opinion is that 'any' is too much, though I do acknowledge the necessity of industrialization in this modern world. :D

Those two clauses, statements contradict each other.

You're being waaay too literal. Literary license allows (demands?) an emphatic statement for effect. The astute reader is to infer its actual scope and intent.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby odelltrclan » Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:13 pm

Marlow wrote:
user4 wrote:
Marlow wrote: My opinion is that 'any' is too much, though I do acknowledge the necessity of industrialization in this modern world. :D

Those two clauses, statements contradict each other.

You're being waaay too literal. Literary license allows (demands?) an emphatic statement for effect. The astute reader is to infer its actual scope and intent.


Wow, you are beginning to sound like a politician :wink:
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Thu Sep 05, 2013 3:29 am

odelltrclan wrote:Wow, you are beginning to sound like a politician :wink:

You take that back!!! :cry:
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:50 am

odelltrclan wrote:
Marlow wrote:
user4 wrote:
Marlow wrote: My opinion is that 'any' is too much, though I do acknowledge the necessity of industrialization in this modern world. :D

Those two clauses, statements contradict each other.

You're being waaay too literal. Literary license allows (demands?) an emphatic statement for effect. The astute reader is to infer its actual scope and intent.


Wow, you are beginning to sound like a politician :wink:


Actually this helps.. I now know to read Marlow's posts as poetry. :D

My own opinion is that it is healthful for me to conserve in my private economic decision. I take shorter showers, I recycle, I do all those things that I consider to be economically and personally frugal because it reinforces in my life order and discipline that has greater value for my family. However I have no illusion that it matters one bit to the health of the planet or that it will make a perceptible difference in the lives of people on the other side of the planet. It wont. Even perfect totalitarian control by a board of scientists will not change the course of the earth one bit. The Earth has been here for 4 billion years, and over that time it has slowly morphed from a ball of hot molten material to this now cooler planet .. industrial man has been here for only the last 2 hundred years.

As for the anthropogenic global hot air syndrome, we have had shaman and high priest gas bags for 20 thousand years. It is just that in the last 20 years they can jet around the globe like the rich and famous, self promote and make a fabulous profit selling a guilt trip.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Thu Sep 05, 2013 5:56 am

user4 wrote:I have no illusion that it matters one bit to the health of the planet or that it will make a perceptible difference in the lives of people on the other side of the planet. It wont.

Your one contribution is not alone. In concert with many others, a large difference will be made.

Thus spake the poetaster :wink:
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby kuha » Thu Sep 05, 2013 6:06 am

user4 wrote:As for the anthropogenic global hot air syndrome, we have had shaman and high priest gas bags for 20 thousand years. It is just that in the last 20 years they can jet around the globe like the rich and famous, self promote and make a fabulous profit selling a guilt trip.


This line of argument is always laughably unconvincing. If you want to talk about economic motivations, then you really need to go where the money is: the global fossil fuel industry. Compared to their economic incentives for maintaing the status quo, the supposed "greed" of a few hundred academics doesn't even register.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:12 am

kuha wrote:
user4 wrote:As for the anthropogenic global hot air syndrome, we have had shaman and high priest gas bags for 20 thousand years. It is just that in the last 20 years they can jet around the globe like the rich and famous, self promote and make a fabulous profit selling a guilt trip.


This line of argument is always laughably unconvincing. If you want to talk about economic motivations, then you really need to go where the money is: the global fossil fuel industry. Compared to their economic incentives for maintaing the status quo, the supposed "greed" of a few hundred academics doesn't even register.


I view some of the scientific academics on this topic as like a few cloistered pauper monks, measuring small temperature changes as profound and moral movements of the heavens. That their extrapolations serve the high priesthood that doles out chump change to them is just a coincidence.

I view the global fossil fuel industry leaders as capable of making a fortune with the millionaire high priests of global warming as a given. Expect Exxon and BP to be "good steward" advocates for a carbon tax near you. The status quo is whatever makes them the most and they can create the tide and role with it.

If the population can be convinced that a light bulb needs to be an expensive contraption with material components that can not even be disposed of without a license so as to save the earth they can be convinced of just about anything and be made to pay for it.

If I sound cynical it is only because I am old and have watched these western civilization shaman dances through many cycles.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:40 am

user4 wrote:If I sound cynical it is only because I am old and have watched these western civilization shaman dances through many cycles.

I am very impressed with your straw man arguments, logically fallacious as they are. At least you're fun to read! :D
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:45 am

Marlow wrote:
user4 wrote:If I sound cynical it is only because I am old and have watched these western civilization shaman dances through many cycles.

I am very impressed with your straw man arguments, logically fallacious as they are. At least you're fun to read! :D


I like you too Marlow. I really do.. now since you have demonstrated time and time again that you are skilled in both the art of poetry and the visual art of portraying trained logicians I take that as a complement. :D
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gh » Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:10 am

The boffins are growing bolder in their assessments. This from today:

<<WASHINGTON (AP) — A study of a dozen of 2012's wildest weather events found that man-made global warming increased the likelihood of about half of them, including Superstorm Sandy's devastating surge and the blistering U.S. summer heat.

The other half — including a record wet British summer and the U.S. drought last year — simply reflected the random freakiness of weather, researchers with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the British meteorological office concluded in a report issued Thursday.

The scientists conducted thousands of runs of different computer simulations that looked at various factors, such as moisture in the air, atmospheric flow, and sea temperature and level.

The approach represents an evolution in the field. Scientists used to say that individual weather events — a specific hurricane or flood, for example — cannot be attributed to climate change....>>

http://www.weather.com/news/science/env ... s-20130905
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby DrJay » Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:24 pm

Gonna start building an ark when I'm done with this post. Incessant rain in the region today, to continue through the night. US 24, my way from home to work and back, closed most of today and now and no doubt through noon tomorrow due to the threat of flooding (and it may be suffering that now) from the rain falling on the Waldo Canyon fire burn scar (June 2012). 24 has been closed some seven times so far this summer. Flooded twice, saw the threat of flooding the other times. Drove 90 minutes the long way on dirt roads through the hills this afternoon to get home (vs the usual 30). Will reverse that in the a.m. What a mess. Fountain Creek, normal a nice little stream 30 feet wide and a foot or two deep paralleling I-25 in the Springs, is probably running class IV rapids right now.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby DrJay » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:35 am

More rain today. The northern part of the state has really taken a beating, like 500-year flood material. Not so bad here, except in the canyons on the west side of town. Looks like widespread rain right now in the Denver-Boulder area.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:36 pm

I have a theory about global warming and why people think it's real. Go back 30, 40 years when there was much less air conditioning in the country. When you didn't have air conditioning and you left the house, it may in fact have gotten a little cooler out there, because sometimes houses become hot boxes. Especially if you're on the second or third floor of a house in the summer time and all you've got is open windows and maybe a window fan. Or you have some servant standing there fanning you with a piece of paper. When you walked outside, no big deal, it's still hot as hell. Now, 30, 40 years later, all this air conditioning, and it's a huge difference when you go outside. When you go outside now, my golly, is it hot. Oh. Global warming. It's all about the baseline you're using for comparison.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:16 pm

Daisy may be onto something with individual perception of relative heat but in the greater scheme of things with lots of people keeping track of temperatures all over the world, I think the only ironclad conclusion we can reach is that weather is cyclic. It gets hot in summer, cold in winter and hotter and colder some years than others.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record;

Natural catastrophic events (eg..Krakota) affect weather world wide for years or decades. Vast areas of the earth have changed from green to desert in recorded time (eg.North Africa) Seaport cities are now underwater (Alexandria) or inland in the 200,000 years since humans occupied the earth.
The earth has been warming, with periodic centuries long intermissions, for 12,000 -15,000 years since the the retreat of the last Ice Age blanketed the northern hemisphere as far south as Kansas, raising sea level 300-400 feet.
Miami and New York may be under water in a thousand or ten thousand years. Or never. Earth may experience a polar reversal next year or in a million years. Ozone layers wax and wane. Solar flares most influence weather on earth and there ain't a dang thing we can do about it.

Relax and enjoy it. Mankind will adapt.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:31 am

lonewolf wrote:Daisy may be onto something with individual perception of relative heat but in the greater scheme of things with lots of people keeping track of temperatures all over the world, I think the only ironclad conclusion we can reach is that weather is cyclic. It gets hot in summer, cold in winter and hotter and colder some years than others.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record;

Natural catastrophic events (eg..Krakota) affect weather world wide for years or decades. Vast areas of the earth have changed from green to desert in recorded time (eg.North Africa) Seaport cities are now underwater (Alexandria) or inland in the 200,000 years since humans occupied the earth.
The earth has been warming, with periodic centuries long intermissions, for 12,000 -15,000 years since the the retreat of the last Ice Age blanketed the northern hemisphere as far south as Kansas, raising sea level 300-400 feet.
Miami and New York may be under water in a thousand or ten thousand years. Or never. Earth may experience a polar reversal next year or in a million years. Ozone layers wax and wane. Solar flares most influence weather on earth and there ain't a dang thing we can do about it.

Relax and enjoy it. Mankind will adapt.

Spoken like a true octogenarian. What me worry?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:31 pm

jeremyp wrote:[Spoken like a true octogenarian. What me worry?


:) Touche. However, I come from a long line of centurnarians and refuse to fret for another twenty years. :)
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:38 pm

lonewolf wrote:At the risk of sounding like a broken record;
Vast areas of the earth have changed from green to desert in recorded time (eg.North Africa) Seaport cities are now underwater (Alexandria) or inland in the 200,000 years since humans occupied the earth.
The earth has been warming, with periodic centuries long intermissions, for 12,000 -15,000 years since the the retreat of the last Ice Age blanketed the northern hemisphere as far south as Kansas, raising sea level 300-400 feet.
Miami and New York may be under water in a thousand or ten thousand years. Or never. Earth may experience a polar reversal next year or in a million years. Ozone layers wax and wane. Solar flares most influence weather on earth and there ain't a dang thing we can do about it.

Relax and enjoy it. Mankind will adapt.


As a supporter of the earth I try not to get all wrapped around the axle over things that happen on thousand or million year time scales. I save the deep thinking for 100million and billion year time scales. Just doing my share.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby kuha » Fri Sep 20, 2013 6:28 pm

jeremyp wrote:Spoken like a true octogenarian. What me worry?


Yes, an octogenarian Alfred E. Neuman. Lonewolf is a professional in the fossil fuel industry and very nicely conveys their official point of view on the matter--"everything is just fine, please let's continue with business as usual, etc." I give way more credibility to the 97% of the scientific community (no sarcastic scare quotes needed there) who feel very differently about the issue.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:41 pm

97% :shock: Sounds like a third-world election result..and about as valid. Almost makes me smug about being in the elite 3%. :)

As Yogi Berra wisely said, "You can observe a lot by just looking."

I have been looking for a long time and made some observations. I am not spouting industry mantra nor do I follow the logic that Big Oil somehow profits by buying into the carbon credit scam, which defies reason that shuffling paper credits can influence world climate..

Nor do I understand the disdain for fossil fuel which made possible the Industrial Revolution and the internal combustion engine we putter around in today. Oil companies, fortunately, make a lot of money because it takes a lot of money to find more oil/gas.What people overlook is the risk and that the ROI is among the lowest in any industry.

Forty years ago, conventional wisdom Chicken Littles were bemoaning the coming Ice Age. Did not happen, did it? Short term aberrations of weather mean nothing.
I have repeatedly acknowledged that Earth has been warming, without man's influence, for 15,000 years and will continue to do so until it doesn't.
I am not trying to persuade anyone to agree with me. It makes no difference to me.The end result will be the same, whatever man does or does not do.
And none of use will live to see who was right.
Peace out.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:11 am

Here's one guy's reaction to climate change:

http://news.yahoo.com/meteorologist-vow ... 14509.html
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:45 am

lonewolf wrote:97% :shock: Sounds like a third-world election result..and about as valid. Almost makes me smug about being in the elite 3%. :)

I think a better analogy is that of the 1500s, after the initial waves of global exploration, when 3% still insisted the world was flat and the sun 'traveled' across the sky every day . . . :twisted:
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby tandfman » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:50 am

Marlow wrote:I think a better analogy is that of the 1500s, after the initial waves of global exploration, when 3% still insisted . . . the sun 'traveled' across the sky every day . . . :twisted:

It doesn't? It sure looks that way. :)
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:36 am

tandfman wrote:It sure looks that way. :)

Have you ever looked right into the sun? Try, you'll notice it's actually a chariot. Driving that thing but be a pretty boring job.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:43 am

Daisy wrote:
tandfman wrote:It sure looks that way. :)

Driving that thing but be a pretty boring job.

It's outsourced to New York City taxi drivers now, hence the occasional outburst of solar flares when they get a fit of pique.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby user4 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:13 am

lonewolf wrote:97% :shock: Sounds like a third-world election result..and about as valid. Almost makes me smug about being in the elite 3%. :)

As Yogi Berra wisely said, "You can observe a lot by just looking."

I have been looking for a long time and made some observations. I am not spouting industry mantra nor do I follow the logic that Big Oil somehow profits by buying into the carbon credit scam, which defies reason that shuffling paper credits can influence world climate..

Nor do I understand the disdain for fossil fuel which made possible the Industrial Revolution and the internal combustion engine we putter around in today. Oil companies, fortunately, make a lot of money because it takes a lot of money to find more oil/gas.What people overlook is the risk and that the ROI is among the lowest in any industry.

Forty years ago, conventional wisdom Chicken Littles were bemoaning the coming Ice Age. Did not happen, did it? Short term aberrations of weather mean nothing.
I have repeatedly acknowledged that Earth has been warming, without man's influence, for 15,000 years and will continue to do so until it doesn't.


If use of fossil fuels could grant the totalitarian statist more cash they would be all for more fossil fuels. But alas they have already tapped out that tax avenue and are looking for fresh meat and new scams to work. .. hence carbon credits!

By the time the climate starts to cool again the totalitarian high priesthood will be selling us ice to warm our coffee.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby odelltrclan » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:37 pm

http://www.co2science.org/

Links on this non-profit website to many alternative views on global warming hysteria.
Last edited by odelltrclan on Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:20 pm

I repeat, the science is not settled in favor of human influenced global warming.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby tandfman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:15 am

Even if global warming has not been human-influenced, if it's potentially harmful to life on our planet, don't we have a responsibility to engage in behavior that does influence the climate in a positive way? Perhaps we can and should do this, regardless of what may be responsible for the current situation. If we saw a large meteor or other celestial body headed for the earth on a collision course with us in a hundred years, wouldn't we try to intercept and deflect it? Why shouldn't we treat global warming as a similar threat? To me, who or what is causing global warming is almost irrelevant. If we think we can reverse it or slow it down, we probably should be working on that.

Looked at in that way, and taking the blame factor out of it, we may find it easier to modify our individual, corporate, and governmental behavior.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:53 am

tandfman wrote:Even if global warming has not been human-influenced, if it's potentially harmful to life on our planet, don't we have a responsibility to engage in behavior that does influence the climate in a positive way?

That's been my argument all along: regardless of man's contribution to Global Warming (which IS a scientific fact; it's measurable), CO2 emissions DO exacerbate the effect, and we ARE polluting the earth at an alarming rate, so why not do something about it now?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:48 am

Marlow wrote:CO2 emissions DO exacerbate the effect

But by how much? Enough to worry about?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:16 am

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:CO2 emissions DO exacerbate the effect

But by how much? Enough to worry about?

According to 'most' of the most recent studies, yes.
Equating it back to the "pee in the backyard pool" analogy, if one kids pees, not a big deal, when the adults do it regularly, yeah, that's a problem, even if the water hasn't turned yellow yet.
Marlow
 
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