Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?


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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:45 pm

Some skeptics becoming less skeptical?

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greensp ... rming.html

UC Berkeley physicist Richard Muller and others were looking at the so-called urban heat island effect -- the notion that because more urban temperature stations are included in global temperature data sets than are rural ones, the global average temperature was being skewed upward because these sites tend to retain more heat. Hence, global warming trends are exaggerated.


After reanalyzing all the data they now say:
"that the spurious contribution of urban heating to the global average, if present, is not a strong effect; this agrees with the conclusions in the literature that we cited previously." The literature they cite is the basis for the conclusion that Earth has been warming in an unnatural way during the period of human industrialization.
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Re:

Postby Daisy » Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:35 pm

In 2009 Daisy wrote:
In 2009 tandfman wrote:They're changing the diet of cows so they belch less methane.

It's the methane trapped in the permafrost that might be the biggest problem with regard to a positive feedback loop.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/28/opini ... ugman.html

(Note that Krugman says it CO2 from the permafrost, but I think he means methane)


It's started.

The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 76134.html
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Friar » Mon Dec 26, 2011 1:32 pm

I was not dreaming of a White Christmas and glad of it. I've still got fall cleanup work to do (15 large trees 150 feet from my magnetic front door, 50 leaf bags so far).

The month has been hassle free. Cool (but not cold) and dry, like nothing I've ever experienced. My father used to tell me about his easy winters in DC and the early spring but I've never seen anything like that (in New England).
It will likely change soon here but right now I'm down with zero snow. And nothing in the latest forecast.

* 1/8 Still no snow and none in next week's rainy forecast. First time ever use of a leaf blower in January. I saw lots of shorts and tops down convertibles on the Blvd.
Last edited by Friar on Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:25 pm

We in SW Florida just had 21 days in December over 80 degrees, and 2 more due. Best "winter" in my 6 years here.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby bad hammy » Sat Jan 07, 2012 3:34 pm

It's summertime at Lake Tahoe.

The calendar doesn't show it. But just about everything else does - and that's not good for most people trying to make a buck up here.

Lines are out the door at ice cream shops, the miniature-golf course is bustling, and mountain bikers are tearing up and down the parched mountainsides under balmy skies.

Nowhere, however - at least from the shoreline - can you see snow.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1MLGS7.DTL
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 08, 2012 12:31 am

The last four years we have averaged an annual total exceeded the old record (because one of the years was so far above the old record that the other three high levels led to a higher average). However, it was warmer than 'average' because it snows more here in the middle of winter when it snows.

However, this year it is probably my warmest winter so far in the 23 years living here. We have had almost no snow (4.4 inches vs average of 20.4) and there is nothing on the ground (the last three years we had snow continually on the ground from the beginning of December through into March). HDDs so far: 2650; Normal: 3201. And the next three days are supposed to average over 45 degrees (F, of course).
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gh » Sun Jan 08, 2012 11:02 am

The real answer of course is that weather is always acting funny (whereas climate normally is not). Weather operates on geologic time and we have no idea what's "normal" during out pitifully small lifetimes. Just as every generation of adults since Oog & Ogg has been lamenting the fact that the kids are going to hell in a handbasket, I'm sure Adam turned to Eve and said, "have you noticed that the weather here in Eden has really sucked lately?"

I remember in the late '50s my mother leaning over the proverbial garden fence and having a discussion with the next door neighbor (or in mom's case, neighbour) and saying, "the weather just hasn't been the same since they started that nuclear testing."
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Wed Mar 21, 2012 10:58 am

I'm just posting this from another thread. Seems more appropriate here.
26mi235 wrote:
Pego wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Tuariki wrote:So you are a snow bound Badger.

Normally, yes. But this year we have the magnolia already.
Tuariki wrote:The only Wisconsin Badger for TnF I can think of is Pat Matzdorf.

You probably know of Suzy Favor Hamilton. And more recently Matt Tegenkamp and Chris Solinsky.


In my northern Badger garden, snowdrops, early crocus and a few Scilla sibiricas are blooming, the earliest in my memory, the hyacinths and tulips coming out, daffodils not quite yet. What is a pom? Should I feel honored or scream bloody murder :wink: ?

P.S. Once mump completes the list, I will re-post the alpabetized thing again, complete with corrections.


Well, Madison is a bit further south but here are a few measures of how unusual the weather it is. Despite the fact that we have the ten normally warmest days of the month to go, this March has (in comparison to the years since 1950):

1 Has four times as many Cooling Degree Days (excess of average daily temperature above 65) as the previous 62.
2 In only four years has April had more CDDs
3 The average temperature is already more than 8 degrees higher than the next highest March and if the forecast for the rest of the month holds, we will end up 12 degrees above the average and higher than the highest April over the period since 1950.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:00 am

Well, weather is always acting funny, as gh says. However, there tends to be bounds, and the more days that are included the harder it is to get far away from a 'norm'. However, March in Madison is getting to a rather unusual level. Here is what I wrote on another thread:

Daisy posted the main part, so I will just add:

Such long periods of above normal also has the implication that maybe normal has changed. In fact, Madison has been warmer than average every month since October. We will almost certainly have the warmest heating season, less than 6000 HDDs, with the record before of 6395.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby DrJay » Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:20 am

Record highs-for-date this week in Colorado. It was 84F in the Springs yesterday, tying the record. Average high-for-date 62F.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:14 pm

DrJay wrote:Record highs-for-date this week in Colorado. It was 84F in the Springs yesterday, tying the record. Average high-for-date 62F.


Apparently our ex-governor is enjoying the Colorado weather.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/loca ... 7608.story
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:23 am

Global Warming's Terrifying New Math - Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make clear who the real enemy is.

by: Bill McKibben in Rolling Stone.

If you told Exxon or Lukoil that, in order to avoid wrecking the climate, they couldn't pump out their reserves, the value of their companies would plummet. John Fullerton, a former managing director at JP Morgan who now runs the Capital Institute, calculates that at today's market value, those 2,795 gigatons of carbon emissions are worth about $27 trillion. Which is to say, if you paid attention to the scientists and kept 80 percent of it underground, you'd be writing off $20 trillion in assets. The numbers aren't exact, of course, but that carbon bubble makes the housing bubble look small by comparison. It won't necessarily burst – we might well burn all that carbon, in which case investors will do fine. But if we do, the planet will crater. You can have a healthy fossil-fuel balance sheet, or a relatively healthy planet – but now that we know the numbers, it looks like you can't have both.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... h-20120719
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gm » Thu Jul 19, 2012 12:26 pm

Daisy wrote:...and that make clear who the real enemy is.


MAN!!! KILL THEM ALL!!!

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:16 pm

gm wrote:
Daisy wrote:...and that make clear who the real enemy is.


MAN!!! KILL THEM ALL!!!

That was part of the title, not my commentary. The interesting part is that if these numbers are correct will the oil industry be willing to sit on the reserves instead of selling it to burn.

I guess we could save it for plastics.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Thu Jul 19, 2012 6:38 pm

BS
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Thu Jul 19, 2012 7:14 pm

Lonewolf wrote:BS

True, biodegradable synthetics would probably be a better way to go than using the oil for plastics.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby rsb2 » Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:38 pm

What part is BS, Lonewolf? Scientific confirmation, please.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby j-a-m » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:42 am

Read only the first paragraph of the linked Rolling Stone article; and that's enough for me to skip the rest and call the article BS. The article says "the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99"; that shows zero understanding of statistics, and whoever makes such a claim has no business being making any scientific claims.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:52 am

j-a-m wrote:that shows zero understanding of statistics

Not zero understanding, there is a method to it, just simplistic.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby j-a-m » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:54 am

Daisy wrote:Not zero understanding, there is a method to it, just simplistic.

Simplistic is putting it nicely.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Fri Jul 20, 2012 6:58 am

j-a-m wrote:
Daisy wrote:Not zero understanding, there is a method to it, just simplistic.

Simplistic is putting it nicely.

How about too colloquial? Presumably the writer is assuming his audience is not a bunch of statisticians.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby j-a-m » Fri Jul 20, 2012 7:04 am

Daisy wrote:How about too colloquial? Presumably the writer is assuming his audience is not a bunch of statisticians.

In accordance with the forum rules, this is my last post on this matter: The statistical claim is bogus, and that's still putting it mildly. Presumably, the writer either assumes he can get away with it precisely because his audience is not familiar with statistics, or he actually believes his own BS claim.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:03 am

Sitting in South west Florida as a Cat 1 Hurricane is due to sweep by in the next 24-48 hours. We live right on a canal so pray the water surge stays below 7 feet.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Helen S » Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:51 am

Let us know how that praying thing works for you this time.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:38 am

Helen S wrote:Let us know how that praying thing works for you this time.

All I had to do was channel King Canute.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:41 am

Except, his point was to prove he could not hold back the tide. 8-)
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:58 am

If you told Exxon or Lukoil that, in order to avoid wrecking the climate, they couldn't pump out their reserves, the value of their companies would plummet. John Fullerton, a former managing director at JP Morgan who now runs the Capital Institute, calculates that at today's market value, those 2,795 gigatons of carbon emissions are worth about $27 trillion. Which is to say, if you paid attention to the scientists and kept 80 percent of it underground, you'd be writing off $20 trillion in assets.


The guy is actually a terrible economist, and in this context that is a non-trivial failing.

Specifically, How does he come up with the value figure of $27 trillion. You have to have some prices in the market. Now, if they produce somewhat less than the full amount the price might be a little bit higher, ... As such, the more you do not produce the higher the unit price and the total dollar value does not fall proportionately with the quantity (in some circumstances it will rise, as you have seen when supply is cut back 5% and the price increase by several times that 5%).

Add to this that it is not revenues that matter but revenues minus expenses. Thus, the net revenues will fall not nearly as fast as the total revenues because of the savings in cost, which are greatest on the marginal units, the ones that would go un-utilized.

When the most basic elements are not even a part of the discussion, the discussion is not worth much.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gh » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:55 am

Daisy wrote:Except, his point was to prove he could not hold back the tide. 8-)


I learned something today! Since that's not what I learned at all, I went looking, and Wiki says

<<Henry of Huntingdon, the 12th-century chronicler, tells how Cnut set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes. Yet "continuing to rise as usual [the tide] dashed over his feet and legs without respect to his royal person. Then the king leapt backwards, saying: 'Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws.' He then hung his gold crown on a crucifix, and never wore it again "to the honour of God the almighty King".[95] This incident is usually misrepresented by popular commentators and politicians as an example of Cnut's arrogance.[96]>>

I'm sure that in school we learned that he thought he could. I've certainly remembered it that way for the last 50-odd years.

Thanks for the path to enlightenment!
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:26 am

gh wrote:Thanks for the path to enlightenment!

Strange, I always thought it was common knowledge. I guess it all depends on who your teacher is in history. Obviously I had a very good one.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby DrJay » Wed Aug 29, 2012 3:59 am

jazz, I hope you have a sturdy canoe handy.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Aug 29, 2012 4:55 am

DrJay wrote:jazz, I hope you have a sturdy canoe handy.

I'm not worried about flooding where I live, but thanks anyway.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby DrJay » Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 am

I hope family and friends are OK.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:00 am

Daisy wrote:Except, his point was to prove he could not hold back the tide. 8-)

%^&*$()&% I knew there was something wrong.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jeremyp » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:04 am

Isaac blew on by out to sea and all we got was 5-6 inches of rain, and flooded docks. Debby on the other hand made the waters rise a foot or so more. Hope all goes well in the north gulf.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:33 am

Isaac is suppose to last over NO until tomorrow morning. That is one slooow storm. Already 10 inches of rain.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby EPelle » Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:02 am

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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Pego » Fri Sep 21, 2012 3:30 am

From the National Academy of Sciences

http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12781&page=1
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:33 am

Pego, We'll be dead soon anyway, so no worries.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:44 am

I'm sure this is just coincidence, but

Scientific American wrote: The Arctic Sea Ice extent this September was far smaller than the previous record set in 2007. At 3.4 million square kilometers of ice coverage, this year’s Arctic minimum was 600,000 square kilometers smaller than the 2007 record. That difference between the previous record and this year’s is larger than the entire state of California, and almost as large as the state of Texas. An ice-free summer in the Arctic, once projected to be more than a century away, now looks possible decades from now.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/gue ... what-next/

Surely there can be no negative consequences to a melt-off of the Polar Ice-cap . . . can there?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby bad hammy » Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:25 am

Marlow wrote:Surely there can be no negative consequences to a melt-off of the Polar Ice-cap . . . can there?

My current abode is about 5 feet above sea level and the sea (well, bay) is about 100 yards from the my back door. I might be just a bit more concerned if I wasn't renting . . .
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