Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?


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Postby lonewolf » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:42 am

Daisy wrote:[That means we might all be freezing but the arctic is relatively balmy. Hence, the global average temperature could be still be higher even while we freeze our butts off.

Exactly! Weather is local. Average don't mean squat. It is gonna happen and there ain't nuthin we can do to cause it or stop it. imo.
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Postby donley2 » Thu Feb 11, 2010 7:57 pm

Record single calendar day (as opposed to 24 hour period) snow of 9.4 inches at Dallas-Fort Worth airport today as of 9:00 tonight and it is still snowing. I have lived here 25 years and pretty sure I have never seen more than 2 or 3 inches in a day.
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Postby Marlow » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:02 am

Weather forecast for some areas in Florida today . . . . snow! :shock:
Where's global warning when ya need it? I didn't move hear to deal with that nasty stuff! Where's my parka - haven't seen it since we moved here in 1993! :twisted:
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Postby Daisy » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:23 am

Marlow wrote:Where's global warning when ya need it? I didn't move hear to deal with that nasty stuff!

Has one of Marlow's students hijacked his login details?
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Postby SQUACKEE » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:46 am

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Where's global warning when ya need it? I didn't move hear to deal with that nasty stuff!

Has one of Marlow's students hijacked his login details?


It looks like i hijacked it, but even i know its here not hear! :shock:

The difference between us is im not teaching english! :lol:
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Postby donley2 » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:58 am

donley2 wrote:Record single calendar day (as opposed to 24 hour period) snow of 9.4 inches at Dallas-Fort Worth airport today as of 9:00 tonight and it is still snowing. I have lived here 25 years and pretty sure I have never seen more than 2 or 3 inches in a day.


We shattered all previous single day and 24 hour records with 11.2 inches before midnight and 12.5 in 24 hours. Had a great snowball fight with the kids though.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSFWD
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Postby gh » Fri Feb 12, 2010 7:12 am

Have a friend who lives in the hills between Monaco and Nice; yesterday she couldn't get to her house even in a 4x4 there was so much snow!
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Postby Marlow » Fri Feb 12, 2010 8:32 am

SQUACKEE wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:Where's global warning when ya need it? I didn't move hear (sic(k)) to deal with that nasty stuff!

Has one of Marlow's students hijacked his login details?

It looks like i hijacked it, but even i know its here not hear! :shock:
The difference between us is im not teaching english! :lol:

Homophones R Us! :D
Jest so's ya no, eye ain't bean a hippocrypt wen ah spel rong, ei rairley teak off poynts fer mispelins cuz disleksics cant spel nohow noway aniweigh, and I gots em. Cumpooters gots spelckek fer that!
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Postby Daisy » Fri Feb 12, 2010 8:41 am

Marlow wrote:Cumpooters gots spelckek fer that!

You have one for homophones?

"Global warning" is not really a homophone, is there another word for that, similar to a freudian slip?
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weather or not

Postby Bijan » Fri Feb 12, 2010 9:51 am

12" of snow in Dallas. Mobile and Pensacola got some 'fall. BWI-Marshall Airport (Balt.) has 80" this winter, DC has received six feet of snow, averages 15" per winter.

Washington had a 16" snowstorm bef. Xmas, 30" last weekend, and 12"-21" more this Tues/Wed. Mail hasn't been delivered all week, colleges were closed (Howard only one open today, two hours late), no school here or surrounding jurisdic. since last week.
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Postby Marlow » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:00 am

Daisy wrote:"Global warning" is not really a homophone, is there another word for that, similar to a freudian slip?

yes, it's called a . . . pun. :D
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Postby Daisy » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:08 am

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:"Global warning" is not really a homophone, is there another word for that, similar to a freudian slip?

yes, it's called a . . . pun. :D

So you're saying it was intentional!!! Likely story. :twisted:
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Postby Marlow » Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:22 am

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:"Global warning" is not really a homophone, is there another word for that, similar to a freudian slip?

yes, it's called a . . . pun. :D

So you're saying it was intentional!!! Likely story. :twisted:

But, but, but, I am . . . The TOE!!
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Snow Daze

Postby Bijan » Sat Feb 13, 2010 8:27 am

It's not just f/ Minnesota any more. 49 states have had snowfall this season.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 07, 2010 9:27 am

From that rag The Times owned by the lefty Rupert Murdoch,

"95 per cent chance that Man is to blame for global warming, say scientists"

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 050341.ece
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gh » Sun Mar 07, 2010 10:15 am

This is probably a good time to mention that a lot of people confuse weather and climate. Weather is short-term and local, climate is longterm and far-reaching.

In other words, unusual snow (or heat, or anything) probably means absolutely nothing relative to climate.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby tandfman » Sun Mar 07, 2010 10:48 am

I am sure that that point has been made at least once (probably more) in the 500+ preceding posts, but you're right--it's always worth mentioning. It's often mis-understood.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 07, 2010 11:01 am

tandfman wrote:I am sure that that point has been made at least once (probably more) in the 500+ preceding posts, but you're right--it's always worth mentioning. It's often mis-understood.

But then again, anyone who confuses the two is so out of touch with the issues here that telling them that is pointless.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:23 pm

Marlow wrote:
tandfman wrote:I am sure that that point has been made at least once (probably more) in the 500+ preceding posts, but you're right--it's always worth mentioning. It's often mis-understood.

But then again, anyone who confuses the two is so out of touch with the issues here that telling them that is pointless.

So you don't believe in teaching moments?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby kuha » Sun Mar 07, 2010 12:31 pm

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:
tandfman wrote:I am sure that that point has been made at least once (probably more) in the 500+ preceding posts, but you're right--it's always worth mentioning. It's often mis-understood.

But then again, anyone who confuses the two is so out of touch with the issues here that telling them that is pointless.

So you don't believe in teaching moments?


I believe in dunce caps for those that refuse to be taught. I wonder if there are enough to go around?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:38 pm

kuha wrote:I wonder if there are enough to go around?

At least the cap manufacturers are hiring. Can the right claim that as a political victory leading into November? :twisted:

Speaking of the right. Here is a very interesting article (Darwin Foes Add Warming to Targets) tying together evolution and climate change as a new wedge strategy.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:19 pm

Daisy wrote:So you don't believe in teaching moments?
Teaching can only occur when someone wants to learn. Some simply refuse.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Daisy » Sun Mar 07, 2010 2:31 pm

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:So you don't believe in teaching moments?

Teaching can only occur when someone wants to learn. Some simply refuse.

Shouldn't a teacher try and find a different strategy for such individuals? Or do you believe in lost causes?
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby dukehjsteve » Sun Mar 07, 2010 3:06 pm

This whole " Global Warming" thing is a vast left wing plot ! It's the Communists ! It's the Socialists ! It's the New World Order cabal ! It's OBAMA ! :roll: :wink: :P :lol:
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 07, 2010 3:44 pm

Daisy wrote:Shouldn't a teacher try and find a different strategy for such individuals? Or do you believe in lost causes?

How many individuals have you seen, just on this site alone, who refuse to 'learn', even when confronted by logic and rationality? I have never given up on a student of mine, but there are some adults who are content to wallow in the filth of their own mind's making.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:01 pm

Apparently, this thread is destined to overtake the Ipod/Desert Island thread.
I don't think there is anything new that can be added but as one of those who "refuses to learn" and kowtow to the logic and rational of the loyal oppositon, I once again am compelled to rise to the bait.
I do not confuse climate with weather. I do not deny that there are short and long term cycles of warming and cooling. The earth has been in a 10,000 + year warming trend since the reversal of the the last Ice Age. "Scientist" in the different camps offer up dueling stastics to prove their contention.
The difference is: my logic and rational tell me that man has about the same cause/effect on global warming as a fart in a hurricane.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:05 pm

"Speaking of the right. Here is a very interesting article (Darwin Foes Add Warming to Targets) tying together evolution and climate change as a new wedge strategy."

I had read that. Amazing what the right tries to tie together. Gun Rights, Birth Certificates, Global Warming, Death Panels, the taste of Gin....just throw and an argument out there and see what sticks....
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:09 pm

lonewolf wrote:Apparently, this thread is destined to overtake the Ipod/Desert Island thread.
I don't think there is anything new that can be added but as one of those who "refuses to learn" and kowtow to the logic and rational of the loyal oppositon, I once again am compelled to rise to the bait.
I do not confuse climate with weather. I do not deny that there are short and long term cycles of warming and cooling. The earth has been in a 10,000 + year warming trend since the reversal of the the last Ice Age. "Scientist" in the different camps offer up dueling stastics to prove their contention.
The difference is: my logic and rational tell me that man has about the same cause/effect on global warming as a fart in a hurricane.

As I hope you gathered, I was NOT talking about you or anyone else who thinks man is not causing GW. We ARE in a period of Global Warming now - whether or not it's man-made is a separate issue. Whether it is or not our fault is totally irrelevant. We ARE polluting the planet at an alarming rate, and we must find ways to reverse that trend.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby lonewolf » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:17 pm

Sincere people on both the Left and Right disagree on the cause/cure for global warming. I don't consider it a political issue. Well, aside from the proposal to institute ruinous, unjustifed taxes for no demonstrable reason and even there it is not exclusively a Left/Right issue.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:26 pm

"Scientist" in the different camps offer up dueling statistics to prove their contention."

This is a poor representation of the two sides. Just as in the evolution argument, the vast majority of the 'scientist' who study and know this stuff are in agreement. Then there is the nonbelievers camp who primarily just try to find 'missing links'.

For example uber skeptic Sen. James Inhofe, has bragged about a list of over 600 'scientists' who are GW skeptics. But most of these are either tv weatherman, economists or physicists like Freeman Dyson, who really know nothing about what they are talking about.

http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/11/i ... led-again/
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby kuha » Sun Mar 07, 2010 4:59 pm

Conor Dary wrote:"Scientist" in the different camps offer up dueling statistics to prove their contention."

This is a poor representation of the two sides. Just as in the evolution argument, the vast majority of the 'scientist' who study and know this stuff are in agreement. Then there is the nonbelievers camp who primarily just try to find 'missing links'.


Exactly. It's not a 50/50 issue; more like 90/10 at this point, or maybe, to be generous, 80/20. There's no pretending that the man-affected global warming trend is a SURE thing...but it remains the consensus of the scientific community.

My rule of thumb is roughly as follows. We are faced with two opposing answers--A and B--to a given problem.

A requires nothing from us, no change, no sacrifice, no effort of any real kind. All that's required is a shrug of the shoulders and a knowing smile.

B demands real and permanent change in the way we live and think--not change that is impossible, but change that will be difficult and controversial--in order to lower the odds of a future catastrophe.

OK, we have our two possible paths laid out. Knowing human nature as I do--I've had some little experience in 57+ years--its natural that the "easy" answer is A--that's the answer that our pre-rational, reptilian brain wants to be true. Why? Because it's easy, of course. The intricacies of the science get quickly sidetracked as soon as we tell ourselves, "this one demands nothing from me, and, in fact, only confirms that everything we're doing now is just fine."

B, on the other hand, doesn't let us off the hook. And, in part, that's exactly why I'm compelled to think that it has a reasonably high likelihood of being right: it runs counter to the comforting falsehoods and justifiations that we continually invent to protect ourselves.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby rasb » Sun Mar 07, 2010 5:19 pm

Very well said, Kuha! Of course, we are not sure whether we can make a difference, or not, but we owe it to ourselves and to future generations to CARE and TRY...
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby gh » Sun Mar 07, 2010 8:01 pm

London Times reporting on a new study that says 95% chance man is to blame for global warming:

<<...The evidence that human activity is causing global warming is much stronger than previously stated and is found in all parts of the world, according to a study that attempts to refute claims from sceptics.

The “fingerprints” of human influence on the climate can be detected not only in rising temperatures but also in the saltiness of the oceans, rising humidity, changes in rainfall and the shrinking of Arctic Sea ice at the rate of 600,000 sq km a decade.....>>

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 050341.ece
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby jhc68 » Sun Mar 07, 2010 9:08 pm

Back to local specifics... Central California has no sand left on the beaches because so many winter storms have sent pulses of BIG waves scouring the shorelines. There may have been bigger swells in past years but I don't recall a season with so many days of major surf along this coastline.
Of course this is weather, not climate and it is an El Nino situation, and here there are no "norms" for weather, only averages (the average rainfall is @16 inches per annum because some years it totals 38" and then the next two might only be 5"). But this winter's solid lines of surf marching in from the north Pacific has been unprecedented in my memory.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby rasb » Tue Mar 09, 2010 6:38 pm

Apparently the great Central Valley in California is rapidly running out of water. This area provides a lot of the fruit and vegetables for a significant portion of North America, particularly during our winter, spring and early summer. Of course, I'm sure this isn't worth worrying about, because part of the Anarctic seems to be retaining and perhaps even building up a little more ice... What climate change ???
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby rasb » Wed Mar 10, 2010 8:22 am

Interesting piece in this morning's daily, Victoria Times Colonist.
The title is "Warmest, driest winter in Canadian history".
Apparently, 4 degrees Celsius (over 7 F.) warmer than normal, and 6 degrees Celsius warmer
in some part of Northern Quebec and Nunavut.
Called "beyond shocking" by one climatologist, he says the non-Winter "may have set the stage
for potentially horrific water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this Summer".
The suspects are El Nino, shift in the winds and ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, and
thinning, retreating Arctic Ice.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby JRM » Fri Mar 12, 2010 7:34 pm

rasb wrote:... he says the non-Winter "may have set the stage
for potentially horrific water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this Summer".
The suspects are El Nino,...


In these parts, El Nino certainly does not imply water shortages.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:14 am

rasb wrote:Apparently the great Central Valley in California is rapidly running out of water. This area provides a lot of the fruit and vegetables for a significant portion of North America, particularly during our winter, spring and early summer. Of course, I'm sure this isn't worth worrying about, because part of the Antarctic seems to be retaining and perhaps even building up a little more ice... What climate change ???


The rice farming in the Central Valley uses about a meter of water for irrigation (i.e., each square meter of planted rice uses about a cubic meter of water in irrigation; at least they did 20+ years ago). When the price is very low [i.e., artificially low to some customers] a lot will get used and then there is not enough at that price. I suspect that fruits and veggies have higher marginal products of water than does a lot of rice. California agriculture might be in for a rougher future in that snow pack is a source for much of its water and snow pack is sensitive to temperature and the timing of temperature changes. If rain falls instead of snow more often between 4000 and 9000 feet, a lot less snow pack will be available as winter rains wash quickly through the system rather than being stored as snow for later.

For all the gruff southern California gets for wasting water, residential (and commercial/industrial) customers in southern California do not use that much of California's water despite the fact that there are 25 million of them living in a warm/dry climate.

The price elasticity of demand for water in many agricultural uses is greater than one (i.e., a 1% increase in price leads to more than a 1% decrease in usage).
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:27 am

gh wrote:This is probably a good time to mention that a lot of people confuse weather and climate. Weather is short-term and local, climate is longterm and far-reaching.

In other words, unusual snow (or heat, or anything) probably means absolutely nothing relative to climate.


I cite this difference often.

Also, people cite specific events or a sequence of events such as the large snowfall this season in the East as clear evidence that their cannot be Global Climate Change. However, Getting more snow is not necessarily a sign that the climate is not getting warmer and can be a sign that it is (which is the case for snowfall along the East Coast, I think).

I have been generating some trends of weather in conjunction with work I have been doing and using the NOAA Official Norms for heating degree days (HDDs) has been the worst predictor among a set of three: 1) NOAA Norms; 2) the average of the most recent 10 years; 3) the trend over the last 25 years attached to the average of the most recent 20 years. The difference in performance using data starting from 1965 through to the present is actually stunning even compared with what I expected to find. For example, for the case that got me started in the upper Midwest, the average forecast Bias of the NOAA Norms was about 500 one year out, over 600 five years out and over 700 ten years out. The most recent 10 years had a Bias of only a bit over 100 one year out, but over 400 ten years out. The trend method had a Bias of about 20 one year out and essentially zero ten years out.

While these amounts were large, almost all other cases I tested for major areas around the country (Portland, Austin, Georgia, Kansas City, NY, Baltimore, Louisville, Chicago, LA, Denver) show similar results with smaller magnitudes except for LA, where the weather station was LAX (the airport) RIGHT on the coast and thus dominated by cool on-shore flows, and they were almost neutral.
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Re: Weather Acting Funny in Your Neighbourhood?

Postby donley2 » Mon Jun 07, 2010 10:12 am

I don't know that this is funny, but it is a nasty combo af hot and humid today. At 1:00 one of the local airports was reporting 94 degrees and 50 percent relative humidity. That converts to 103 on those heat-humidity tables. Took a 20 minute walk at lunch time and have not been that uncomfortable walking around outside in recent memory.
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