¶2012 OG: w4x400–United States 3:16.87 WL

[dj]

T&FN formchart advancers to final

1. United States
2. Russia
3. Jamaica
4. Great Britain
5. Ukraine
6. Belarus
7. France
8. Czech Republic
9. Brazil
10. Nigeria

[ChuiTai]

It looks good for US at this point. However it will take an uncooked Richards-Ross/Felix combo to approach the '88 performance, let alone the '93 quartet. Though Trotter & McCorory should match the other relative legs.

[iain]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

[jjimbojames]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

I have a feeling Nicola will be in that line up - reading between the lines, she's running the heats on Friday and has been training with this one race in mind- McConnell's 52+ run has left her vulnerable

[mump boy]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

I have a feeling Nicola will be in that line up - reading between the lines, she's running the heats on Friday and has been training with this one race in mind- McConnell's 52+ run has left her vulnerable

But Lee always raises herb game in a relay, as does Nicola

[ATK]

With Trotters medal, I think the argument if Demus should be on the relay pretty much ends there.

[j-a-m]

With Trotters medal, I think the argument if Demus should be on the relay pretty much ends there.

Agreed.

[Pelpa]

Hope Novleen and company give Sanya and company a good run here.

[t_monk]

The 4x400 is gonna be very interesting me thinks....

[iain]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

I have a feeling Nicola will be in that line up - reading between the lines, she's running the heats on Friday and has been training with this one race in mind- McConnell's 52+ run has left her vulnerable

Pardon my naïvety, but which lines? I hope Marilyn gets a run, though I doubt she will. We can definitely rest two runners IMO (probably the hurdlers).

[jjimbojames]

Iain - comments on twitter. Obviously early days still, as I think Child's semi tonight will also be taken into consideration after a poor heat time (though harder to tell with the hurdles in the way!)

PSD will almost certainly be rested as she will (hopefully - have you seen the semi line up!?!?) make the hurdles final. I expect Sanders, Child, McConnell and Cox to be the heat line up, though a little risky, so possibly TBO could run.

[CookyMonzta]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

If the U.K. wants to guarantee themselves a medal (certainly one of a higher grade, let alone any medal) ahead of any one of the other contending teams, they must move Big O. to the anchor leg. She won't be so content to run mid-51 and leave all the responsibility to the anchor. The pressure will be squarely on her to duplicate what she did in the open 400 if you put her on the anchor. The difference between Ohuruogu on the 2nd/3rd leg and the anchor leg could be 2 seconds.

[iain]

Cooky Monzta, I am inclined to agree. However, most people don't agree. TBH I'm also happy with PSD second CO third if LM and NC are in any sort of form (low 50 split)

[Flumpy]

If the U.K. wants to guarantee themselves a medal (certainly one of a higher grade, let alone any medal) ahead of any one of the other contending teams, they must move Big O. to the anchor leg. She won't be so content to run mid-51 and leave all the responsibility to the anchor. The pressure will be squarely on her to duplicate what she did in the open 400 if you put her on the anchor. The difference between Ohuruogu on the 2nd/3rd leg and the anchor leg could be 2 seconds.

You don't know much about the history of GB relays teams do you??? The chances of TBO having a 2 second differential between 2nd/3rd or anchor is

The ONLY chance we have of getting a medal if Christine pulling her finger out and running a relay PB by over a 2nd and passing on to Perri on anchor who is a relay beast.

Having said that her coach is head of GB relays. He was made that specifically to make sure she performed after her disastrous relay history. Maybe she'll commit this time and run a time faster than her individual PB (Has there ever been a 400m runner who runs slower in relays???).

[jjimbojames]

Ordinarily I'd disagree but given the location and her comments last night, I think TBO could do a job on anchor

If so, PSD either needs to lead off so we have a chance of being involved or run 2nd, to make back some ground

[iain]

I would say EC-PSD-LM-CO but possibly replacing LM depending on split in heats.

[mump boy]

There is NO WAY that USA will run anywhere near 3:15. Even if they were good enough (which they aren't IMO) conditions will almost definitely not be favourable. After the 400m final I have to say USA have become clear favourites over Russia, who will probably be scrapping for minor medals with JAM and GB. Probable teams IMO:
USA - Trotter, Felix, McCorory, Richards-Ross
RUS - Gushchina, Antyukh, Firova, Krivoshapka
JAM - Whyte, Spencer, Day, Williams-Mills
GBR - Child, Ohuruogu, McConnell, Shakes-Drayton

I have a feeling Nicola will be in that line up - reading between the lines, she's running the heats on Friday and has been training with this one race in mind- McConnell's 52+ run has left her vulnerable

Pardon my naïvety, but which lines? I hope Marilyn gets a run, though I doubt she will. We can definitely rest two runners IMO (probably the hurdlers).

It is my understanding that Maz won't be running

[Flumpy]

I understand the reasoning behind putting TBO on anchor but it's a HUGE risk and she's never given us any hope whatsoever that she has any clue on how to run a decent anchor leg. There is a very high possibility that she'd fight to get into 3 and then slow up on the line and get overtaken (She's done this on numerous occasions).

Perri I trust 100%.

Christine is a relay liability. Maybe this time she'll prove me wrong (I certainly hope so).

[iain]

CO will anchor in the heats right? Hopefully she won't have too much work to do, but it will at least give an idea of her current competence.

[Flumpy]

Who knows? After 2007 I'm hoping not.

[iain]

She didn't run the heats in 07 I presume you mean 08. You can't blame her too much for that, she was running under instructions.
She just had an interview on BBC where she sounded pretty positive about the relay, and all but confirmed Eilidh will be running.

[Gabriella]

Because of the way she runs the invididual, I think the 1st leg is the best leg for CO; it allows her to run her own race with a late surge when she wants it. As she doesnt go off hard, put her on another leg and the temptation is to either start faster than she's comfortable doing or have too many women to run round and not have a clean line. In theory, if she were on first, we should be up there with the leading teams and in the mix. I'd then put either Lee or Nicola on second, with PSD definitely on last leg. That would be my preference.

[jjimbojames]

In theory(!) the best scenario would be TBO on first in lane 3, with Sanya running in lane 5 for the US, a la 2009 - then you might actually get a sub-50 from TBO on lead off, as she'd run a bit quicker trying to run her down!

[Flumpy]

Put her on first and I guarantee we'll get a 51.8.

Third is the ONLY sensible option and even that's problematic as without Nicola in good form we'll in 5th by then anyway.

To be honest I have no idea what to do

1 - Lee
2 - Eilidh
3 - TBO
4 - Perri

Is my best, bet but maybe Perri on 2nd might put us in contention and then TBO on last as long as she's under strict instruction to run the 48. she should be able to do.

Why can't Nicola be 100% It would solve all of our probs.

[jjimbojames]

Why can't Nicola be 100% It would solve all of our probs.

Wouldn't it just!

[Flumpy]

She didn't run the heats in 07 I presume you mean 08. You can't blame her too much for that, she was running under instructions.

Was it 2008 that she stopped on the line in the heat and nearly got overtaken by Anna Jesien? I can't believe that was a team instruction

How fast did she run in the final?

I'm pretty certain her fastest ever relay run on ANY relay leg is 50.40. Kelly Sotherton has run faster than her

[iain]

That was 2005 final. 2008 was when she ran really slow in the heats on instructions. She was 2nd and the Cuban and German came up behind. TBO didn't spot the German and had to dive for the line to qualify.

[Flumpy]

There are so many calamities it's hard to keep track

[Gabriella]

Put her on first and I guarantee we'll get a 51.8.

Third is the ONLY sensible option and even that's problematic as without Nicola in good form we'll in 5th by then anyway.

To be honest I have no idea what to do

1 - Lee
2 - Eilidh
3 - TBO
4 - Perri

Is my best, bet but maybe Perri on 2nd might put us in contention and then TBO on last as long as she's under strict instruction to run the 48. she should be able to do.

Why can't Nicola be 100% It would solve all of our probs.

But in Osaka TBO ran 50.7 on that first leg which was actually ok, but Beijing wasn't so good with 51.2. In Daegu, where she wasn't in the same form, she was on third leg and ran 51.9. But she was still in sub 51 form, so running nearly 52.0 on third leg is absolutely what we didnt/dont need.
While her indoor run may mean she'll run better on any leg now, my worry is that I dont see any of the girls running sub 51 on first leg other than CO or PSD. Put Lee or Child or Nicola on first and we're out of touch from the outset and we just wont catch up. I also wouldnt put Child in the relay too, maybe only qualifying. But we're going to have to be very careful because qualifying is going to be tough. I actually think Maz would run a decent leg in the heats and would choose her over Child.

[Flumpy]

I give up

[Gabriella]

I give up

I know, it's too

If Only Nicola had shown 51+ form, as opposed to 52+, I'd be confident then!

[iain]

I think Child can run 51.0 on first, and Whyte shouldn't be too far ahead.

[jjimbojames]

I think Child can run 51.0 on first, and Whyte shouldn't be too far ahead.

I'd love it if she could, but I just don't see it - 51.5 at best is my guess - her hurdling was off at the OG but she ran 56+ in both races - it wasn't THAT bad! On a later leg she'd def be sub-51 though

[Adriana S]

What of Shana Cox?

[liuxuan]

I wonder what sort of split jessica could have done had she been asked and commited herself to running. Maybe 51.0??

no chance of that as she has been out partying at Stone Roses gigs, guzzling champagne in the papers, GO JESS, PARTY TIME!