¶2012OT m5000—Galen Rupp 13:22.67 MR

[gibson]

right, it depends on how fit you are.
rupp you realize may be (or probably is) using the heats as a workout and he may easily recover for the final.

meanwhile Andrew Bumbalough was absolutely crazy to push it, there is no indication that he's in the superfit world where you can recover like sub 13 - sub 27 guys can.

if AB saved it for the final, he might have had a shot as he may have achieved a new level of fitness for him.

but now the "A-bum" has gotta pay the price in the final.

[Conor Dary]

It looked like Rupp was just doing a workout with a nice finish, like no big deal. It is the other guy who should be worried.

[SQUACKEE]

He's clearly in sub-13 minute form, so a 13:40-something isn't a gigantic effort.

I agree,even the 1:53 last 800 will probably have no effect with 2 days rest....it just looked odd after seeing so many runners easy up over the years.

[Dutra5]

Yeah,I wonder what Salazar said to Galen re: running a 1:53 final 2 laps when a more relaxed/controlled finish would have got him into the final just as well? Same for Bumbalough...

Wasn't this all about fine-tuning the training for a London kick?

It is true that if Rupp is gonna double in London, he will need a similar last 800-1:53, to make it to the final in the 5, probably faster, BUT with the final coming up to GET ON the 5,000 team, a easier heat would by better served - for the more important goal, He can fine tune his ass off in practive with Farah!

If Rupp, in particular, can't recover from trotting around the track 10 1/2 times followed by a 1:53 from Monday to Thursday then Mo Farah's the least of his worries.

[Dutra5]

It looked like Rupp was just doing a workout with a nice finish, like no big deal. It is the other guy who should be worried.

Agreed. I didn't realize they were running nearly that quickly until after I saw the splits. Rupp looked very easy.

[SQUACKEE]

If Rupp, in particular, can't recover from trotting around the track 10 1/2 times followed by a 1:53 from Monday to Thursday then Mo Farah's the least of his worries.

Of course he can, the question is, would a 1:56 last 800 make ANY differance in his quest to win Thursday?

[JumboElliott]

Pretty cool that two brothers born in Kenya are in the finals of the US Olympic Trials. What a great country.

[TN1965]

If Rupp, in particular, can't recover from trotting around the track 10 1/2 times followed by a 1:53 from Monday to Thursday then Mo Farah's the least of his worries.

Of course he can, the question is, would a 1:56 last 800 make ANY differance in his quest to win Thursday?

Given there are two days of rest in between, probably no.

[Cyril]

I have NEVER been a Webb-is-washed-up guy, but now . . .

Webb has run 13:10 I believe. Tuesday he ran 14:01 with a 77.8 last lap. There has never been a Webb before and there wont be when he does leave. I hope he keeps running, he is truly fascinating.

Maybe it will discourage all those who believe it is appropriate to step up in distance.

Webb's head and body does not seem comfortable at 3 times the distance.

Sad for him and his obvious demons.

Webb doesn't look comfortable running to the bathroom. It is all very strange, and must be very frustrating for him. Obviously he is not the same guy he was a few years ago. He has stepped up in distance and done quite well. He has run excellent 5s and 10s...just not in the past several years.

The Rupp/Lagat duel should be very interesting. I don't see Rupp taking Lagat out. To me he looked a little pressed in the final 100 yesterday. Against a flying Lagat he wouldn't have a chance.

Kudos to our neighborhood star Bethke. He ran a very smart semi, doing exactly what he needed to and nothing more to get the final auto-Q. Coming off a big PR in the 1500 (3:39) a couple of weeks ago in a near-solo run, he should be in for a nice race Thursday.

[fromage]

Lomong wins, Lagat second Rupp third.

[SQUACKEE]

Lagat is 37, right on the razors edge of the downturn, but he still has that gear. The gear that won 1500 in New York. Rupp does not have that gear but he is super fit and will try a long sprint with around 3 laps to go. He has to lose Lagat but he wont be able to, he will drop Lomong. The wildcard is the pace. Will the dudes needing the A standard take it out? Ritz did.

Lagat, Rupp and Lomong. Winning time.....Squack swami sez 13:17

[bobguild76]

I agree with Squackee. The wild card will be if anyone other than the big three will force the issue, and from how far out. With Ritz & Teg & Derrick out of the mix, I don't see anyone else taking it out in a sub 13:20 pace. The question then becomes, Will AB or True make a push for home sometime in the last 4 laps? If so, will Rupp or Lomong respond to thin the lead pack out? They certainly have the speed to wait for the last 400, but methinks they would like to sort things out before then.

In that case, Lagat will stay out of trouble, respond to whatever moves are made, and blitz the last 200. Winning time for Lagat: 13:19.77.

Then there's Plan B ... Rupp figures he has 5 weeks to recover for the Olympics, and launches a 13:10 pace from the beginning. After 6 laps, the Big 3 (plus one or two others) have a 60 meter lead, and he backs off until 800 to go. In that case, Lagat wins with a time of 13:19.76.

[Conor Dary]

Pre's record has been around 40 years. Something I assume Salazar and Rupp are aware of, and probably would like a Duck to hold the record again. Rupp has nothing to lose at this point to just go for it. I would love to see them set an American Record tomorrow night.

Anyways, we will know at the first kilo what is up.

[odelltrclan]

Then there's Plan B ... Rupp figures he has 5 weeks to recover for the Olympics, and launches a 13:10 pace from the beginning. After 6 laps, the Big 3 (plus one or two others) have a 60 meter lead, and he backs off until 800 to go. In that case, Lagat wins with a time of 13:19.76.

I just don't see any situation where Rupp would do something like this. He will likely be able to outkick anyone in the race (exception of Lagat, maybe Lamong) off of a fast or slow pace. So why go fast and risk a blow-up? I think he will tuck himself nicely into the back until about half way, move up and push hard from 3 laps or so out wherein only a couple of guys will be able to hang on and threaten in the last lap. I think he wants to win, but, more important is to make sure he is top 3 and that is his best bet.

Bumbalough looked good in the semi. I wonder if he will have anything left for the final. He is not at the same level as Rupp yet.

Lagat, Rupp, Lamong

[Alan Shank]

Anyways, we will know at the first kilo what is up.

Not if you're watching on TV! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[gibson]

on paper this is a very easy race to predict for place.

lagat, rupp and lamong in any order you like.
lagat because of his pedigree.
rupp because he's the man of the future and the moment.
lamong because he's got 332 1500 speed and he can convert it to the 5000m - on the right day.

the field has a couple of guys with decent 1500m times, so chances are that rupp and or lamong will take them out of the mix with a change in pace from a mile out.

no boys will be left in the man's race at the bell.

ok - time to commit, i gamble rupp for the win.

[bobguild76]

Then there's Plan B ... Rupp figures he has 5 weeks to recover for the Olympics, and launches a 13:10 pace from the beginning. After 6 laps, the Big 3 (plus one or two others) have a 60 meter lead, and he backs off until 800 to go. In that case, Lagat wins with a time of 13:19.76.

I just don't see any situation where Rupp would do something like this. He will likely be able to outkick anyone in the race (exception of Lagat, maybe Lamong) off of a fast or slow pace. So why go fast and risk a blow-up? I think he will tuck himself nicely into the back until about half way, move up and push hard from 3 laps or so out wherein only a couple of guys will be able to hang on and threaten in the last lap. I think he wants to win, but, more important is to make sure he is top 3 and that is his best bet.

I agree with you ... I think Plan B is very unlikely. The goal is to make top 3, and then lay it on the line in London. Kinda like what Mo Farah did today at the Euro Championships, throw in a fast lap midway to see who is feeling their oats, then launch his drive from 3 laps out. But what makes the Trials so interesting is seeing if someone will wake up on the frisky side of bed and go hard from the gun.

The bummer is I'm in South Africa, and I only get to follow the tweets and race updates. Ugh! I will say that following all your comments online makes me feel so much more at home! Thanks to everyone!!! Hey, if you want, I can pass on all the rugby and cricket updates ...

[TN1965]

As I predicted on another thread back in April -- Lagat, Rupp, Lomong -- in that order.

[odelltrclan]

The bummer is I'm in South Africa, and I only get to follow the tweets and race updates. Ugh! I will say that following all your comments online makes me feel so much more at home! Thanks to everyone!!! Hey, if you want, I can pass on all the rugby and cricket updates ...

I feel for you. I had to "view" the Decathlon that way, but it was great. Unfortunately, the 5k is too quick for much other than talking about expectations.

[nicest person ever]

Man, I wish the hours would pass quicker, I'm craving to watch this 5k final so bad!!!

By the way, is it just me, or did anyone else feel like Rupp looked sort of pissed off or something at the end of the 5k prelims? First when the guy he coasted to the line with reached out to shake his hand a few seconds after they finished, he didn't shake the guy's hand and instead immediately turned around and walked away from him as soon as the guy held his hand out, and then he kept his hands on his hips all the way out the stadium and seemed pretty deliberate in not shaking/high fiving any of the numerous people who tried to congratulate him on his way out, nor did he smile at all and seemed to have kind of an annoyed/angry expression on his face.

That said, I haven't seen how Rupp normally act's post-race enough to know if this is how he normally is, in which case disregard obviously, but, I was just curious.

Anyway, hopefully it'll be a fast exciting race.

Maybe if I get my friends to freeze me in ice and thaw me out a few hours from now, it'll make the time seem to go by instantly while I'm in a hypothermic coma, like when Cartman in South Park wasn't able to wait for the new video game console to come out so he had his friend bury him in the snow in the Colorado wilderness so that he'd be able to bear the time as it passed between then and when the console was gonna be released. Alright, I'm gonna go do that now I guess, wish me luck!

[TN1965]

By the way, is it just me, or did anyone else feel like Rupp looked sort of pissed off or something at the end of the 5k prelims?

That's because Bumbalough leaned at the finish just to show that he could "beat" Rupp, when Rupp was just cruising to the finish with his qualifying position secured. There is no rule against doing something like that in a heat, but it was contrasting with Lagat and Lomong in the second heat, who basically finished side by side without caring about who would finish ahead.

It creates an interesting side plot on what kind of statement Rupp might want to make against Bumbalough in the final.

[kuha]

There's no reason for this field to run TOO fast. The whole point is: how fast can the #4 guy go? Anything too much faster than that is just testosterone. Can the #4 guy run under 13:15?--I sort of doubt it.

[Marlow]

As I predicted on another thread back in April -- Lagat, Rupp, Lomong -- in that order.

I thought it was acknowledged that LL has a better kick than Rupp, so it goes
Lagat
Lomong
Rupp
Or are you saying that Rupp will push a 12:55 pace that LL can't hang onto?

[TN1965]

There's no reason for this field to run TOO fast. The whole point is: how fast can the #4 guy go? Anything too much faster than that is just testosterone. Can the #4 guy run under 13:15?--I sort of doubt it.

Given Bumbalough has run 13:16 twice (including this year), it is not a stretch.

[TN1965]

I thought it was acknowledged that LL has a better kick than Rupp, so it goes
Lagat
Lomong
Rupp
Or are you saying that Rupp will push a 12:55 pace that LL can't hang onto?

He won't push a 12:55 pace, but I don't think he will wait until the final lap. He will probably make a move with 3-4 laps to go in order to separate him from the pack. I think only Lagat will be able to keep up and pass him in the final 100m.

[mal]

There's no reason for this field to run TOO fast. The whole point is: how fast can the #4 guy go? Anything too much faster than that is just testosterone. Can the #4 guy run under 13:15?--I sort of doubt it.

Its the Olympic trials and its a Race.

It may be the only time they'll be in a true competition. These guys generally do not race enough. Why would they sit around at a pace to qualify for another race that won't happen for a month or so?

I do not subscribe to holding it in for one special day.

[Randy Treadway]

Pretty cool that two brothers born in Kenya are in the finals of the US Olympic Trials. What a great country.

Why not? It worked for the President...

[nicest person ever]

Pretty cool that two brothers born in Kenya are in the finals of the US Olympic Trials. What a great country.

Why not? It worked for the President...

dude...

[Conor Dary]

Pretty cool that two brothers born in Kenya are in the finals of the US Olympic Trials. What a great country.

Why not? It worked for the President...

What a dick. And ignorant at that.

[Randy Treadway]

Actually, I have all the congratulations in the world to the people like Lagat and Meb who immigrated to this country the way it's supposed to be done, and worked super-hard on top of that. Great job. They have earned the right to be called Americans.

[kevinsdad]

Actually, I have all the congratulations in the world to the people like Lagat who immigrated to this country the way it's supposed to be done, and worked super-hard on top of that. Great job. They have earned the right to be called Americans.

Good for you. But it's your unfunny jibe at the President that makes you a dick.

[kuha]

Actually, I have all the congratulations in the world to the people like Lagat who immigrated to this country the way it's supposed to be done, and worked super-hard on top of that. Great job. They have earned the right to be called Americans.

Good for you. But it's your unfunny jibe at the President that makes you a dick.

And a moron.

[Randy Treadway]

Pre's record has been around 40 years. Something I assume Salazar and Rupp are aware of, and probably would like a Duck to hold the record again. Rupp has nothing to lose at this point to just go for it. I would love to see them set an American Record tomorrow night.
Anyways, we will know at the first kilo what is up.

Many of us would love to see the return of the spate of record-setting that the Olympic Trials used to be known for. Tonight's 5K is as good a chance as any, and we'd be hard-pressed to find a better venue for a 5K record in America, than there at Hayward.
Rupp is a young and exciting runner- not quite a prodigy like Jim Ryun, but still full of promise at a relatively young age--- so I'd love to see him and Lagat duke it out right to the wire, with both breaking the AR. Which one finishes first doesn't make a hill of beans difference to me.

I'd also like to see both of them right there in the mix with the Ethiopians & Kenyans in the final in London, when it's time for the bell lap.

[Randy Treadway]

It's funny how some people have absolutely no tolerance for those who may have a different opinion, and instantly resort to name calling. It rolls right off me-- I'm old enough to have been some of your grandparents and have been there, done that.
I'll be happy to debate you in a different venue (this is a OT 5K forum), and I totally respect your right to have an opinion different than my own, and your right to express it. I will not call you an idiot no matter what I think. Instead, I'm likely to ask you questions to clarify the *reason* you hold the opinion that you do. Unlike you, I know how to disagree with 99% of your opinions and still be friends and shake hands at the end of the day.
Now back to track & field!!

P.S.- I suspect we might agree on a lot more than you may think.

[Conor Dary]

Look, you are an ignorant, racist moron. Why not leave it at that.

And what you call opinion, is a disgusting refusal to look at the facts. Take your Birther nonsense somewhere else.