I would have said Manuela Montebrun is a lock for the women's hammer title, but she recently picked up a minor injury. Until we know how serious that injury is, then I won't put her name down as my vote.
Also, if it weren't for the nationality issue, Yamile Aldama would be up there too, but looks like she won't be going to Paris.
I would pick Sanchez, but his is a hurdles event, so you can never be too sure of getting through the whole race without falling.
Guevara is up there too, but her last two races (in particularly her last one - 50.98) have failed to impress. However, Lorraine Fenton's 49.71 run in terrible conditions really did impress me - surely she can challenge Guevara to the extent of taking away the "lock" factor...?
It's a tough call between Murofushi and Korzeniowski. Korzeniowski is a big-time performer, yet can't match Murofushi's 2003 unbeaten record. Korzeniowski has been beaten 3 times already this year, out of his 7 outdoor races. So I'm afraid Korzeniowski can't be counted as a lock (especially with the walks lifting rule - can never guarantee getting through the whole race without being DQ'ed).
Therefore, my vote would go to Koji Murofushi - he has an unbeaten record this year, and his shortest throw of the season (82.36m) has only been bettered by two other athletes this season. As it is, he holds 6 of the 8 best throws this season, and is a clear meter ahead of his nearest rival (a fairly inconsistent Ivan Tikhon).
To clarify, my vote is for Koji Murofushi