2-Hour Marathon Redux


Main message board: for the discussion of topical track & field items only.

2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:13 am

With the recent WR in the Marathon, 'experts' are once again admonishing us for thinking the 2-hour barrier is within reach. I like the article on the home-page that points out that

World marathon record-holder Wilson Kipsang, after all, has a half-marathon best of 58:59 and went through halfway last Sunday in Berlin in 61:32.


That's only a 2.5 minute difference, which bolsters my suspicion that a marathon is 'not that much different' than a half-mar. If you can run a super-fast half, odds are that you can sustain a somewhat similar pace for the whole thing. The canard that 20 miles is some physiological BARRIER doesn't apply to the very elite. Can you see a 57:20 half marathon? I can. And there we are at 2:00.

I'm not saying it will happen in even 20 years, but yes, well within 50, which, though I'll be gleefully rolling over in my grave, is 'pretty soon'. :D
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:09 am

Marlow -- you have not run one and I do not think that you fully grasp the fundamental difference between the Half and the Marathon. The best analogy might be the 400/800, where few top runners cover both well. The reason there is (also) that the energy systems change. In the Marathon you have to deal with running out of fuel in a way that does not enter for the Half. Now, maybe on-course fueling will help close the gap, but there is a difference between consuming calories and getting them efficiently into you system. In addition, those little fatigue things can go suddenly wrong, although that is a bit more of a reason why the 'hit rate' for good races is rather low (as well as why you take a big chance by trying to race more than a couple a year at a high level).
26mi235
 
Posts: 16334
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby aaronk » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:17 am

This falls well within my "slowdown rate theory" that I've exposited on this MB before in other threads.
I strongly believe, and have SOME real world examples to back it up, that you can predict a runner's potential at a longer distance by what they've run at a shorter distance.
No, you can't take a person's 100 or 200.....or even 400 time.....and say what they'd do in a marathon.
So let's begin at the marathon, and work our way back to the mile/1500.

2:00:00 marathon would entail someone having run 57:00 at the half.
The 2.5 minutes given above is an outlier, IMO. As would be 3.5 minutes!!

To run a 57:00 half, one would pass 20K in approx 53:58.

To run a 53:58 20K (26:59 twice), one would need to have run one 10K in at least 25:59.

To run 25:59 for 10K, one needs to be a 12:29 (or faster!!!) 5K person!!

To run 12:29, one needs to have a 7:50 2 mile to their credit.

To do a 7:50 2 mile, you need to have a 3:45 (or faster!!) mile in your record!!
aaronk
 
Posts: 3359
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Daisy » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:26 am

Marlow wrote:The canard that 20 miles is some physiological BARRIER doesn't apply to the very elite.

What is the basis for this argument? That they are super efficient at burning fat?
Daisy
 
Posts: 13153
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:28 am

Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:The canard that 20 miles is some physiological BARRIER doesn't apply to the very elite.

What is the basis for this argument? That they are super efficient at burning fat?

That they have trained their bodies (and learned how and what to ingest during the race) to not . . . bonk . . . after 20 miles. Look at Kipsang's pace in the last 6 miles. Do you see a bonk? No. And that is DESPITE continuing to red-line his engine! To what do you attribute that?
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby 502CD » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:34 am

The Half has far more in common with the 10K than it does with the Full.
502CD
 
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2008 5:45 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby skyin' brian » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:58 am

Marlow wrote:
Daisy wrote:
Marlow wrote:The canard that 20 miles is some physiological BARRIER doesn't apply to the very elite.

What is the basis for this argument? That they are super efficient at burning fat?

That they have trained their bodies (and learned how and what to ingest during the race) to not . . . bonk . . . after 20 miles. Look at Kipsang's pace in the last 6 miles. Do you see a bonk? No. And that is DESPITE continuing to red-line his engine! To what do you attribute that?


How far can he run at 2 hour pace?
skyin' brian
 
Posts: 1128
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:18 am

skyin' brian wrote:How far can he run at 2 hour pace?

26.2 miles. :D
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Bruce Kritzler » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:28 pm

Again,..2:00 pace is 14:15/5k. How many 5k portions of the race did he run under 14:15?
Bruce Kritzler
 
Posts: 3128
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby TN1965 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:10 pm

Here are the kilo splits of Kipsang's WR.

http://trackandfieldnews.com/index.php? ... le&id=1714

He had splits of 2:45, 2:47, 2:48, 2:50, and two 2:51s. That means he ran at or below the 2 hr pace for a total of 6km out of 42.195.

KImetto's 25km WR is right around 2:51 pace. Mosop's 30,000m track WR is about 2:53 pace.

So I'd say the current limit for the 2 hr pace should be somewhere between 25 and 30K.
TN1965
 
Posts: 1186
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:24 pm

aaronk wrote:This falls well within my "slowdown rate theory" that I've exposited on this MB before in other threads.


The change in metabolic rates/energy sources is precisely why the 'slowdown rate' changes and is greater for the marathon than for shorter distances. It happens to be the case that historical data do not show this very clearly -- because until recently the Half was not competed very often and the records were a bit on the soft side.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16334
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby JumboElliott » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:39 pm

It's going to come when we learn more about injury prevention and recovery. What if something happens that allows someone to healthily run 30+ hard miles a day?
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby kamikaze7 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:17 am

I would have bet on Wanjiru if he was still alive and motivated.
kamikaze7
 
Posts: 707
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 3:05 pm

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Bruce Kritzler » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:09 pm

kamikaze7 wrote:I would have bet on Wanjiru if he was still alive and motivated.


and sober.
Bruce Kritzler
 
Posts: 3128
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby gh » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:36 pm

26mi235 wrote:
aaronk wrote:This falls well within my "slowdown rate theory" that I've exposited on this MB before in other threads.


The change in metabolic rates/energy sources is precisely why the 'slowdown rate' changes and is greater for the marathon than for shorter distances. It happens to be the case that historical data do not show this very clearly -- because until recently the Half was not competed very often and the records were a bit on the soft side.


I suspect the half record are still more than a bit on the soft side, for two reasons:

1. not a big enough payday to draw the best runners (or if they're there, it's with the idea of saving themselves for a later marathon payday).

2. Organizers probably haven't gone to the extremes we have found in the big-city marathons to craft speedway courses.


ps--and 1a would be not enough sponsor money there to pay for all the high-powered rabbiting talent that's now so often needed in marathon WRs.
gh
 
Posts: 46335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Ref » Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:24 am

It's hard to take into account all of the effects in going from the half-Marathon distance to the full Marathon. Also, the extent to which these affect different runners is not easy to quantify.

Another way of trying to get a handle on how far the top runners are away from breaking 2 hours is to look at the Marathon only - breaking the link to an inherently difficult comparison - and calculate instead the difference in speed required, in terms that we can relate to given a common background in watching (at least!) longer races in a track environment.

A runner who gives up a couple of yards per lap by not being able to match the race's pace in the middle of the race (neglecting end effects) is generally a significant way from being able to compete at that race's pace. Losing 5 yards every lap, in a 10,000m race, would represent being a couple of "levels" away from competitiveness. Those are just my opinions, of course, but given an even pace it's usually quite clear when a runner is being dropped.

Using those sort of heuristics, it's straightforward to calculate how much the current world record run would be "dropped" by a future 2 hour-breaking Marathon. It comes out as the equivalent of 1.9s, or 11m, per 400m lap.

To me that's a huge amount, and even when we get a breakthrough to (just below) 2:02 it will only have reduced to 1s and 6m per lap.
Ref
 
Posts: 61
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:53 pm

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby nevetsllim » Fri Oct 04, 2013 4:01 am

If Paul Tergat, Haile Gebrselassie et al say a 2hr cannot be achieved, then I'm much more inclined to believe them. Yes, it might 'only' be less than three-minutes away but that equates to about 7-8sec faster per mile than Kipsang and Makau and in those terms, it becomes a Herculean task. And you'd need other variables such as pace-making and conditions to be perfect which are completely out of your hands no matter how well you've prepared.

Until we see athletes running 57/low 58 en masse for the half-marathon, I remain unconvinced.
nevetsllim
 
Posts: 6261
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 2:54 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:27 am

nevetsllim wrote:If Paul Tergat, Haile Gebrselassie et al say a 2hr cannot be achieved, then I'm much more inclined to believe them.

I am LESS inclined to believe them because they have
a. a vested interest in it being so hard (they couldn't do it)
b. their mindset is from a different experience than the guy who does it.
c. their 'reality' (can't be done), makes it impossible for them to do it.

Paula's WR is much more impressive to me than a 2:00 Mar. When is the next 2:15 wMar? Maybe the same time as the sub-2 mMar.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby lonewolf » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:47 am

Its a simple matter. There are few absolutes in life but no matter how many ways you analyze it or theorize optimum splits, ain't no human in the next thousand generations gonna run 26.2 miles non-stop at 4:35/mile pace..
Is there an animal that can do it?
lonewolf
 
Posts: 8816
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Indian Territory

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby JumboElliott » Fri Oct 04, 2013 8:49 am

To say that the two hour marathon will NEVER happen when the world record gets taken down basically every other year is foolish. It might take 50+ years, but it will happen, unless we discover that every athlete competing today is on some sort of super undetectable drug.

I'm still convinced that there is a marathon Usain Bolt that we haven't seen yet. imagine if Kenny B or Geb started competing in marathons when they were capable of 26:20 or lower...

Also, I don't pay much mind to what Paul Tergat or Haile Gebrselassie think, because neither of them is a physiologist, and I would guess that both have big enough egos to make it difficult for them to admit that someone can go four (five in Tergat's case) minutes faster than them.
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:33 am

lonewolf wrote:Is there an animal that can do it?

Uh, there ya go again . . . :D
Sled dogs can do it under 1:30.
Camels can do it in around 1:00.
Pronghorn antelopes and ostriches in 0:45! :shock:

Yes, man will do it sometime in mid to late 21st (our) century.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Olli » Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:35 am

JumboElliott wrote:To say that the two hour marathon will NEVER happen when the world record gets taken down basically every other year is foolish. It might take 50+ years, but it will happen, unless we discover that every athlete competing today is on some sort of super undetectable drug.


On the other hand, we cannot reliable predict the future on the basis of the present trend. In several events there have been times of rapid progress of WRs and NRs and times of stagnation and regression. This cannot always be explained on the basis of drugs. Other possible factors include the relative popularity of the event and the willingness of a large pool of talented people to train hard enough.

In several European countries, for example, the level of distance running has deteriorated from the 70s or 80s. My country, Finland, is an especially radical example of this. The level and depth have dropped so radically and so widely, that even if we assume that some Finnish stars doped in the 70s, this will explain just a fraction of the drop. Rather, there are much fewer youngsters willing to commit themselves to the kind of training elite running requires. Moreover, lifestyle in general has gone to the direction of less physical activity for children and young people; therefore they have worse condition to begin with even if they would like to train.

At present, it seems that Kenyans and Ethiopians have an unending pool of talent. But we cannot tell for sure how long this will continue. Perhaps the changes in lifestyle and the growing popularity of other sports will some day have an effect on them, too.
Olli
 
Posts: 123
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:44 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:05 pm

Olli wrote:At present, it seems that Kenyans and Ethiopians have an unending pool of talent. But we cannot tell for sure how long this will continue. Perhaps the changes in lifestyle and the growing popularity of other sports will some day have an effect on them, too.

That's actually the key to why it WILL happen - The talent of East Africa has yet to be fully exploited. There WILL be a Boltian outlier in the Marathon and then - BAZINGA! - Sub-2.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby bambam » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:41 pm

The world record was 2-06:05 in 1998 - 15 years later it is almost 3 minutes faster. In 1998, did anyone think that it would not someday come down another 3 minutes? I don't see what is stopping it from coming down another 3 minutes (OK - 3:23) - perhaps in the next 15 years.
bambam
 
Posts: 3848
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Durham, NC

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby TN1965 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:06 pm

Olli wrote:At present, it seems that Kenyans and Ethiopians have an unending pool of talent. But we cannot tell for sure how long this will continue. Perhaps the changes in lifestyle and the growing popularity of other sports will some day have an effect on them, too.


How many of the current top East Africans had the optimal training and nutrition from the early teens? Many did not even start serious training until they were into their 20s.

How many have regular access to cryochamber or underwater treadmill? Wouldn't you think there is still plenty of untapped potential?
TN1965
 
Posts: 1186
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby lonewolf » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:08 pm

Marlow wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Is there an animal that can do it?

Uh, there ya go again . . . :D
Sled dogs can do it under 1:30.
Camels can do it in around 1:00.
Pronghorn antelopes and ostriches in 0:45! :shock:

Yes, man will do it sometime in mid to late 21st (our) century.

Now, I remember asking that question before.. but don't remember ever receiving an answer,
Thanks. I know many animals can reach high speeds but it boggles the mind that they can maintain them for 26 miles..
How often do antelopes and ostriches have occasion to run 26 miles at 35 mph??
Still, I will cling to my "foolish" prediction that man will not maintain 13.1 mph for 2 hours non-stop in this or the next century... or the century after that.Think about it like this: 105 consecutive quarter miles at 68.57 second pace.
lonewolf
 
Posts: 8816
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Indian Territory

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:27 pm

lonewolf wrote:Think about it like this: 105 consecutive quarter miles at 68.57 second pace.

Why is that any more or less unthinkable than 70.5 second pace?!
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby lonewolf » Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:58 pm

Marlow wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Think about it like this: 105 consecutive quarter miles at 68.57 second pace.

Why is that any more or less unthinkable than 70.5 second pace?!

Because 70.5 pace is already unthinkable :shock: and it gets increasinlgy more difficult to knock off 2 seconds per quarter.
A comparable reduction would produce a 3:35 mile and that ain't coming anytime soon either. :)
We will never know.
lonewolf
 
Posts: 8816
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Indian Territory

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:57 am

lonewolf wrote:We will never know.

You and I probably won't, but some 20-somethings here will. :wink:
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby DrJay » Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:14 am

Oh, no!! Seb Coe is morphing into Larry Rawson!

"You've got to run four minutes thirty five seconds per mile over the course. To put that into perspective and to understand what that means, go down to your local running track, run a lap in under 70 seconds, and then continue for 105 laps. You get the scale of what we are talking about."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/24418508
DrJay
 
Posts: 5485
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby lonewolf » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:46 am

Sounds like Seb is channeling me. :)
lonewolf
 
Posts: 8816
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Indian Territory

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Pego » Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:46 pm

lonewolf wrote:Sounds like Seb is channeling me. :)


If "channeling me" means a voice of reason, then he is "channeling me" too 8-) .
Pego
 
Posts: 10203
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: beyond help

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby lonewolf » Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:51 pm

Pego wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Sounds like Seb is channeling me. :)


If "channeling me" means a voice of reason, then he is "channeling me" too 8-) .

Pego, to paraphrase the hippies/beatniks ( or whatever they were called )of the 50s-60s, I think our motto should be: Never trust the judgement of anyone under 70. :)
lonewolf
 
Posts: 8816
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Indian Territory

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Pego » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:01 am

lonewolf wrote:
Pego wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Sounds like Seb is channeling me. :)


If "channeling me" means a voice of reason, then he is "channeling me" too 8-) .

Pego, to paraphrase the hippies/beatniks ( or whatever they were called )of the 50s-60s, I think our motto should be: Never trust the judgement of anyone under 70. :)


Exactly. What do they know?!
Pego
 
Posts: 10203
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: beyond help

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:43 am

Pego wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Never trust the judgement of anyone under 70. :)

Exactly. What do they know?!

I was just thinking, 'I bet I'm only about 8 years away from understanding what the heck is going on!'
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby aaronk » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:47 am

For what it's worth, Tim Hutchings tweeted TWICE yesterday, both times emphatically stating he thinks it's ridiculous for Farah to make his 2 hour statement!!
Hutchings said (paraphrased) that until he can run a HALF marathon in one hour, it's stupid to think he could run TWO of them back to back!!

I agree 100%!!
When someone starts running the half in 57:30 (or faster!!), THEN I'll start believing the 2 hour marathon is possible!!
aaronk
 
Posts: 3359
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Pego » Mon Oct 07, 2013 6:47 am

Marlow wrote:
Pego wrote:
lonewolf wrote:Never trust the judgement of anyone under 70. :)

Exactly. What do they know?!

I was just thinking, 'I bet I'm only about 8 years away from understanding what the heck is going on!'


One could only hope... :wink: .
Pego
 
Posts: 10203
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: beyond help

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby JumboElliott » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:00 am

I'm 25. If I don't see a 1:59.X marathon in my lifetime, I'll be shocked.
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Pego » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:40 am

JumboElliott wrote:I'm 25. If I don't see a 1:59.X marathon in my lifetime, I'll be shocked.


I hope that in 50 years you will be able to say to your grandchildren, "those old farts lonewolf and Pego that I befriended on T&FN message board might have been not quite so dense." 8-)
Pego
 
Posts: 10203
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: beyond help

Re: 2-Hour Marathon Redux

Postby Marlow » Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:19 am

Pego wrote:I hope that in 50 years you will be able to say to your grandchildren, "those old farts lonewolf and Pego that I befriended on T&FN message board might have been not quite so dense." 8-)

And you aren't! Just very myopic! :wink:
Marlow
 
Posts: 21125
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dutra5, jazzcyclist, lonewolf, rsb2 and 11 guests